Thursday, 27 August 2015

Daniel Loh 8月27日 FM958电台访问:股市准备进入熊市吗?

·                  美国股市展望

美国道琼斯从4月最高18451点跌到最近最低15300点,已经跌了16%。其实全世界的股市最近都一样糟糕。很多股市都掉了15-20%。我们认为掉的原因有两个。

第一是中国最近的经济问题。虽然有了很多政府刺激的政策,但是似乎都没效果。很多朋友都认为是中国经济不好,驶到股市狂跌。但是我觉得中国经济根本没有好转过。去年大涨的时候经济还是一样差。但去年跟今年唯一的不同是因为去年大家都相信政府的刺激,驶到股市狂升。

今年从6月开始就改变了。不管政府怎么做,可能都无效。星期二,中国政府降低利率,星期三中国人民银行印了218亿拯救市场。但是从星期一到三,上证股市却掉了600点。股民已经对中国股市和救市的政策失去了信心。

是因为大家也对利率要上升保持担心的态度。很多投资家可能等待利率有更明确的答案了才再进场。现在资金都离开了股市,很多投资家都保持观望的态度,等待9月看联储局如何决定。我觉得这一次916日的联储局会议相当的重要。如果联储局能明确让我们知道利率的走势,可能股市的信心就会回来。

我还是对美国股市和经济充满信心的。呼吁大家不要有大恐慌。美国的经济还是相当健康。如果利率还是很低,我不认为暂时会有熊市的来临,反而这个回调时一个机会进场。

·       
    新加坡与股市大跌原因

STI这个星期掉了100点。从今年最高点也掉了20%。掉的原因是因为全世界股市的问题。中国股市和利率的不稳定问题。

当然有很多朋友也在讨论这个股市的下滑会不会是因为新加坡大选的原因。根据我们上五个大选的研究,大选前并没有下滑的迹象。大选后有一次一个月后下滑8%,一次11%。因此我觉得这次在大选前下滑纯粹是因为大环境不好,跟我们大选没有关系。但是大选后的成绩可能会影响股市。

从技术图表分析,现在STI的支持就在2840点。这个是一个相当强的支持。

·                   中国股市

中国这三天表现很不好,掉了600点。很多朋友和分析师都说中国股市完蛋了,又要有一个大熊市。很少听到有人说要买中国股的。坦白说,我觉得这是一大机会。中国因为这一年跑了过多,基本面数据跟不上,才会打掉。但是我觉得必定会反弹。

我认为这次下滑是给那些去年没上车的人多一次机会。可能暂时大家已经不相信政府,看数据。但是我觉得大家有耐心,放长线的话,这个可能就是一大机会。

这些刺激迟早会对经济有改变。一年后,大家就会看到有效果的。那时当股市又回到了4500点,千万不要在那个时候才买,太迟了。记得,买股票是买低卖高。现在人家恐慌,就是机会了。

·                   香港股市


香港恒生也受了全世界大环境的影响从28500点跌到前几天的新低,20900点,跌了26%。这一次跌的比较重的原因可能是因为中国股市的关系。但是我觉得如果大环境9月好转,如果联储局能平息利率的担忧,恒生指数可能会有一个反弹。


Questions and Answers on recent market plummet


1) As far as you know, what caused the global stock markets plummet yesterday?

It seems like everybody is pointing their fingers at China now. It is easy to blame Chinese economy stock market for the worldwide stock market rout. But people do not realise that China's economy has been in a bad shape all this while. Their economy has not recovered ever since 2011. Last year, China stock market went berserk not because of the good economy. It went crazy because of their series of economic stimulus employed by the government. 

But what is so different now compared to last year even though the economy has not improved? The difference is that nobody believes in the economic stimulus anymore! 

On Wednesday after the close of trading in Chinese markets, the People’s Bank of China said it would inject $21.80 billion into the financial system. That follows the central bank’s interest-rate cut on Tuesday.

Yet Shanghai composite has dropped around 600 points from monday to wednesday.

However I would like to point out that this is a normal phenomenon of a bull market in its second phase. It is normal. Valuations have flown so high that it is not sustainable. The economical reports and earnings have not caught up with the pace of the stocks. Consolidation is needed.

My opinion is China is now in a consolidation phase. It needs to wait for the stimulus to take real effect and be reflect on the fundamentals. I am not worried about China bad economy now. With time, I am very optimistic it will get better. For long term investors, this is another great chance for those who missed the China runaway bus last year. You wouldn't want to join the bus when it is 5000 points again.

I think the recent uncertainty is not only because of China, but also because of the uncertainty of interest rate. Money is flowing out of stocks and commodities, assets that are considered more risky. However I do believe if FED chairwoman Janet Yellen give a clearer indication about interest rate next month, there is a good chance of a rebound.


2) In your opinion, what should retail investors do now?


Contrary to what others might believe, I still think that we are in a bull market. Fundamentally I can't see a bear market coming yet. The banks are in a good shape and are not over leveraging. US property prices are still far from its heights but improving. US interest rate is still kept at 0-0.25%, meaning liquidity is still in the market. China, Europe and Japan are still injecting funds into the market. China has pumped money on wednesday. You think that will be the last time we hear about injection of funds? Definitely not. 

I would advise retail investors to do some homework to look for good growth stocks that still shows consistent earnings. These might be the stocks that bounce back quickly once the market panic is over. 


Rgds
Daniel

Tuesday, 25 August 2015

Free Investment Seminar by Andy Yew (in Singapore)

Has STI really recovered?

- 5 Step to Consistently Pick the Biggest Winner in Stock market


There are many mistakes a retail investor make when selecting the right stock. In this seminar, Andy Yew, an experienced remisier and trader, will share his systematic method on how to eliminate the mistakes.

What you learn:

Has STI really recovered?
5 steps to pick the right stocks?
Money management rules to follow?
What sector to look at and which sector to avoid ?
Market outlook and individual Singapore stocks analysis using Technical Analysis


Dates (Choose one):

25 Aug 2015, 星期二   (华语讲座)      7pm - 10pm
26 Aug 2015, Wed        English             7pm - 10pm

3 Sep 2015,   Thurs      English             7pm - 10pm
4 Sep 2015,   星期五  (华语讲座)       7pm - 10pm

Venue: 
10 Anson Road, International Plaza #34-07 Singapore 079903
( Nearest MRT Tanjong Pagar )


To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623


Yeah yeah China plunges 8.5%! But don't worry, it will come back up soon in September

Dear Friends,

A lot of friends are concerned about the market recently. Especially when everything now is linked to China economy and stock market crash.

My opinion is that bear market has not started. China stock market most likely will swing in a consolidation region we believe to be somewhere 3000-4500 for at least one year until June 2016!



I know, I know YOU are worried! I also know 99% of analysts out there think that China stock market is dead!

But I am still optimistic about this market.

Once these few days panic is over, we shall see the whole world rallying again with China.

Liquidity (Money) is still out there in the market. When liquidity is still out there, I am not too worried that stock market enter into a bear!

I am still trying my very best to be GREEDY when others are FEARFUL!

Not easy, but I try to!!  I am sure our buddy, Warren will agree with me on this now...

TRUST THE FED!! Trust Janet Yellen to sort this out in September!




Thursday, 13 August 2015

Free Investment Seminar by Andy Yew (in Singapore)

5 Step to Consistently Pick the Biggest Winner in Stock market


There are many mistakes a retail investor make when selecting the right stock. In this seminar, Andy Yew, an experienced remisier and trader, will share his systematic method on how to eliminate the mistakes.

What you learn:

5 steps to pick the right stocks?
Money management rules to follow?
What sector to look at and which sector to avoid ?
Market outlook and individual Singapore stocks analysis using Technical Analysis


Dates (Choose one):

14 Aug 2015, 星期五 (华语讲座)  7pm - 10pm
20 Aug 2015, Thur      (English)       7pm - 10pm

19 Aug 2015, 星期三 (华语讲座)  7pm - 10pm

Venue: 
10 Anson Road, International Plaza #34-07 Singapore 079903
( Nearest MRT Tanjong Pagar )


To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to93676623



Daniel Loh 8月13日 FM958电台访问: 全世界股市为何发神经?还能买吗?

美国热钱已经准备9月利率上升

·        昨晚美国道琼斯闭市在17403点。最近美国的走势都不怎么好。从 5月的最高点18351点跌到现在,也跌了接近1000点。
·        我认为近期的下滑是因为华尔街都一直在担心9月利率可能会上升的问题。
·        我觉得许多基金近几个月都在布局,准备9月利率的上升。大家从4个方面可以看出来。
·        1)中国股市的大掉。热钱在6月从中国撤出,驶到上证股市一个月掉了35%。有几乎90%中国股一个月内都掉了一半。相当恐怖。
2)美国的长期利率,10年的债券收益都一直在上升,从年头1.68%,涨到了现在2.2%
3)美元一直保持在接近这12年的高点,$100,掉不了。我觉得国际基金都担心美国利率上升会驶到股市不稳定。现在他们愿意投资的比较稳定的资产。现在全世界最稳定的就是美元了。所以美元掉不了。
4)股市这几个月都很疲弱。国际资金暂时都没什么炒股票了。美国道琼斯今年还掉了2%。海指今年掉了9%。中国香港6月也大掉。股市不好就是因为大家都关注利率的问题。
·        虽然股市疲弱,但我觉得还是很健康。我认为只要联储局这几个月给我们明确的答案例如:利率几时起,如何起,起多快,股市就会回来的。希望9月联储局会有答案。
·        这一次的下滑我觉得还是一个机会!

热钱从亚洲股市撤退、STI也遭殃

·        海指最近真的表现很差,从最高点3550点跌倒昨天最低3057点。今年跌了9%
·        我觉得海指的下滑就是因为利率的问题驶到资金暂时退出股市。亚洲不只新加坡不好。中国,香港,台湾,韩国,马来西亚,印尼股市都不好。台湾指数今年跌了10%,马来西亚也跌了9%
·        但是我觉得这也是机会。等到利率问题解决,我觉得股市就稳定了。大家不用担心会不会有熊市。利率上升代表经济好。
·        从技术图表来看,STI目前最强的支持就在3000-3050点。昨天已经碰到了。

中国政府怎么拯救都可能没用,必须等待经济复苏

·        中国股市今年有按照我们的计划走。今年6月我们判断股市会大掉,也在958说过。真的就掉了。一个月前,上证指数到了3500点的时候,我们又呼吁大家可以进场。现在是3900点了。涨了400点。
·        我们说过,中国股市现在已经是在牛市的第2个阶段,这个阶段不容易玩了。
·        我们判断指数会横摆在3500-4500的范围,,至少一年的时间。
·        如果要投资,就投资在这个范围,3500买,4500卖。玩短线。
·        最近中国政府采取了很多政策来救股市,最新的一招就是贬值人民币。但是似乎也对股市没效果。这是牛市第二个阶段的象征。政府的政策可能都没有效果。
·        我们只有等待经济慢慢复苏了,股市才能回到5000点。

香港股市又便宜了

·        横生指数受了中国影响,从5月的最高点28500,也跌了15%。现在是23970点。

·        从技术图表来看,恒生现在的支持点就在23500-24000之间。跟海指一样,已经在相当有吸引力的价格了。

Monday, 10 August 2015

FREE Seminar by Daniel Loh: Getting ready for a rise in interest rate in September! What should be your investment strategy?

<< Getting ready for a rise in interest rate in September! What should be your investment strategy? >>



The world is now getting ready for a rise of interest rate!  Big funds are already positioning for a rise of interest rate in September. We can see it from the flow of money. 

US Dollar has been strong hovering near $100. 
10 year treasury yield is rising. 
Commodities has reached a low point. 
Stocks are not doing that well and remain listless. KLCI and STI has been poor.
International funds are running out of China stock market.

How can you as an investor benefit from the rise of interest rate? Are there opportunities to make money from it? What are the stocks and sectors to watch out for?

Come and here Daniel's BIGGEST TIP and Prediction for 2015 and 2016 !!

Limited Seats! Book fast as shown below!


You shall learn:

1) The Biggest Turnaround Story of 2015/ 2016! How do you position yourself to make big bucks?
2) How is the stock market going to be like just before interest rate rise?
3) Will the stock market tumble after interest rate rise?
4) What are the kinds of stocks or sectors you should watch out for when interest rate rise?
5) How can you make money consistently in 2015 from the market?

Date:
11 Aug (Tue)   English session   Time: 7pm -10pm
12 Aug (Wed)  华文讲座               Time: 7pm -10pm

Venue:
International Plaza, #34-07, 10 Anson Road, S(079903)
Tanjong Pagar MRT, Exit C



Speaker: Daniel Loh

Regularly interviewed by Mediacorp FM958
Regular interviewed by Mediacorp Channel 8 Financial Programmes
SIAS investment trainer
Invited speaker for Phillip Securities
Invited speaker for Affin Investment Bank
Invited speaker for OCBC Securities
Invited speaker for Shares Investment
Invited speaker for Shareinvestor

To register pls click here 

or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Thursday, 6 August 2015

Malaysia Stock Tip: Barakah showing strength

Dear Friends,

Singapore Market recently does not show any professional players activity. At least Malaysia does. Here is one Malaysia stock that is definitely in my watchlist.

BARAKAH

Please study it...

Now: $0.98
Target 1: $1.17 - $1.20
Target 2: $1.28 - $1.30

Stop loss: $0.84



Friday, 10 July 2015

Everything looks cheap now! It is a Buy Buy world!

Dear Friends,

China stocks collapse! Greece potential default! Malaysian Prime Minister Najip and 1MDB trouble!
Suddenly panicky news in the world seem to splash the stock market in red.

STI broke 3300 to reach a low of 3250. KLCI broke 1700 to reach a low of 1685. Hang Seng suffered its biggest one day percentage drop ever since the financial collapse in Oct 2008. Shanghai Composite seems to be a "gone case" dropping 30% from its peak of 5178. Or so is the belief of some stock analysts in the world.

I would disagree.

In fact, I am bullish about Shanghai Composite now!

In March, I am perhaps the odd one out to mention about the shanghai collapse in JUNE 2015, when it is flying. Yes, when I mentioned June 2015, a lot did not believe.

Click on the article below titled written on 17th March:
<<China Shanghai Composite continue to hit new bull market high! But be warned of a collapse near June!>>

At that time, I even commented on air on radio station about the danger of SHComp collapse in June 2015. 

Below is the youtube link of the radio interview with FM958 ----

In the recorded interview, starting from 3:45min, I mentioned 3 points one should take note to invest in China Shares after June.



But now, the important thing is what should we do? My opinion is since everything has been so oversold, it is time to take out our weapons and buy cheap!


My opinion:
STI buying zone is from 3250-3300. (inside buying zone now)
KLCI buying zone is from 1650-1700. (inside buying zone now)
Shanghai buying zone is from below 3500. (reached buying zone on 8th July)
Hang Seng buying zone is below 24000 (reached buying zone on 8th July)
Dow Jones buying zone is below 17700. (inside buying zone now)
DAX buying zone is below 10600. (100 points from buying zone now)


Although a lot of the investors are still waiting for the Greece episode, I am willing to take the dive to start buying now to test the market. The default that a lot of investors are waiting for might not happen after all.

Even if there is, Greece impact and influence on Euro banks won't be significant. Euro Banks has already sold almost all their Greece assets these few years. In fact, if Greece indeed defaults, this is one great opportunity not to be missed to really buy stocks at a 50% discount.


We are now indeed in the midst of the GREAT SINGAPORE SALE!!! GREAT MALAYSIA SALE too!!!


Rgds
Daniel

Thursday, 9 July 2015

FREE Investment Seminar by Andy Yew (in Singapore)

5 Step to Consistently Pick the Biggest Winner in Stock market


There are many mistakes a retail investor make when selecting the right stock. In this seminar, Andy Yew, an experienced remisier and trader, will share his systematic method on how to eliminate the mistakes.

What you learn:

5 steps to pick the right stocks?
Money management rules to follow?
What sector to look at and which sector to avoid ?
Market outlook and individual Singapore stocks analysis using Technical Analysis


Dates (Choose one):

9 July 2015,   Thursday (English)        7pm - 10pm
10 July 2015, 星期五 (华语讲座)  7pm - 10pm
24 July 2015, Friday (English)        7pm - 10pm

Venue: 
10 Anson Road, International Plaza #34-07 Singapore 079903
( Nearest MRT Tanjong Pagar )

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to93676623

Monday, 6 July 2015

FREE Investment Seminar by Daniel Loh (in Singapore)

<< A study of the market crashes of these 50 years and its reasons? >>

<<回顾这50年的不同股灾和原因>>

Before the last market crash occurs, many investors were lured into complacency by the stock market bull run stretching from 2003 to 2007. Many investors were hurt in the stock market. Now that we are entering our 7th year of bull market ever since 2009, investors are wondering what to do and whether a crash might occur soon.


There are certain similar patterns that occur in historical crashes and in this seminar, the speaker will take a look at them and identify the risks and opportunities in the stock market.

Join this seminar with Daniel Loh to find out who are those?

Please note we have shifted office from Tung Ann Association to International Plaza #34-07 from 1st June!


You shall learn:

·         The different market crashes that happen in this century
·         Patterns of investor behavior that happen again and again
·         How can the investors benefit from a market crash and a market boom?

·         How do you invest consistently in the stock market, even in a crash?

Date:
7 July (Tue)    English session    7pm - 10pm

8 July (Wed)  华文讲座                 7pm - 10pm


Venue:
International Plaza, #34-07, 10 Anson Road, S(079903)
Tanjong Pagar MRT, Exit C



Speaker: Daniel Loh

Regularly interviewed by Mediacorp FM958
Regular interviewed by Mediacorp Channel 8 Financial Programmes
SIAS investment trainer
Invited speaker for Phillip Securities
Invited speaker for Affin Investment Bank
Invited speaker for OCBC Securities
Invited speaker for Shares Investment
Invited speaker for Shareinvestor

To register pls click here 

or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to93676623

Thursday, 25 June 2015

Greece will still plague the headlines for these few days!

Dear Friends,

It seems like a 5 year old novel talking about Greece debt problems. So what is the real problem and opportunity now?

Euro group are now in negotiations with Greece to see if they want to lend money to Greece to prevent it from defaulting on its payment due on 30th June 2015 to IMF, International Monetary Fund.

Even if there is an agreement, Wallstreet is also worried if there is enough time for Greece to receive payments to pay the IMF on 30 June.

Greece must either get a program extension, which requires approval by the involved institutions as well as several European parliaments, or agree on a new program that would include or replace the remaining funds from the old program.


My trading plan (2 scenarios) :

1) If there is an agreement reached this week, the stock market will finally be clear of any economic uncertainties on Greece for these few weeks! For me I would start to buy up some fundamentally strong earnings stocks!

2) If there is no agreement reached this week, meaning Greece might default on IMF payment, the stock market might tumble because of panic. (IMF will give only 30 days grace period to pay up)

This is one chance to buy up stocks at very cheap price! I believe even if Greece defaulting, it won't hurt the European banks like in the past as a lot of European banks have already minimize their risk exposure to Greece holdings.

Wait for one to two weeks after the tumble to buy up the stock.



In summary, in the LONG run, I don't think any Greece episodes will cause a big dent in the stock market! The whole world is already prepared for a default!

DBS selling its first covered bonds! Reminds me of subprime crisis of 2008!

Dear Friends,

Recently, DBS has begun to sell a type of financial instrument called "Covered Bonds".

Check out Moody's website:
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-DBS-first-covered-bond-program-opens-up-low-cost--PR_328724?WT.mc_id=AMRG93X0pvbmVzX05ld3NSb29tX1NCX1JhdGluZyBOZXdzX0FsbF9Fbmc%3d20150624_PR_328724

In the article, it was reported:

"Similar to other countries where covered bonds have been issued, DBS' program establishes a special purpose vehicle to hold the cover pool assets -- mortgage loans originated by DBS that are secured by private residential properties in Singapore -- and to guarantee the covered bonds."

DBS is using the mortgage payment of Singaporeans to guarantee the bonds?!


If you happen to search Wikipedia, this is exactly what bring down US in 2008!

Mortgaged backed securities!

Wikipedia definition of MBS:

A mortgage-backed security (MBS) is a type of asset-backed security that is secured by a mortgage, or more commonly a collection ("pool") of sometimes hundreds of mortgages. The mortgages are sold to a group of individuals (a government agency or investment bank) that "securitizes", or packages, the loans together into a security that can be sold to investors. The mortgages of an MBS may be residentialor commercial. Other types of MBS include collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs, often structured as real estate mortgage investment conduits) and collateralized debt obligations(CDOs)


My concern:
As our housing prices get higher and higher, I am betting that a bubble in Singapore is brewing in the next 10 years. Although this may be the first for DBS to issue its first mortgage backed security, I don't think it will be the last. 

If this instrument gets more and more lucrative, I am sure DBS will issue more complicated MBS and take higher risk. OCBC and UOB will also follow! Greed will soon creep in just like what happened in US before the subprime crisis. In future, they may be selling something that not the common folks or even the other financial houses can understand. 

And ratings agencies may just give a AAA rating because of the good "stable" housing prices, ignoring the risk of a housing collapse.

Of course let us just hope all ends well. However that is also what the US financial banks and institutions thought in 2007!


Rgds
Daniel


The theory of How Financial system created AAA rated assets out of subprime mortgages:
IMF Diagram of CDO and RMBS


Tuesday, 23 June 2015

FREE Investment Seminar by Andy Yew (in Singapore)

5 Step to Consistently Pick the Biggest Winner in Stock market

There are many mistakes a retail investor make when selecting the right stock. In this seminar, Andy Yew, an experienced remisier and trader, will share his systematic method on how to eliminate the mistakes.

What you learn:

5 steps to pick the right stocks?
Money management rules to follow?
What sector to look at and which sector to avoid ?
Market outlook and individual Singapore stocks analysis using Technical Analysis


Date: 

24 Jun 2015,    Wednesday   (English)       7pm - 10pm ( pls note date change fr thu to wed)
26 May 2015,星期五     (华语讲座)晚上7点 - 晚上10点

Venue: 
10 Anson Road, International Plaza #34-07 Singapore 079903
( Nearest MRT Tanjong Pagar )

Fee: Free

To register pls click here 

or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date>

<Number of seats> 
to93676623