Wednesday, 28 January 2015

DOW recovery during day shows it just can't drop much! Don't worry about STI or KLCI!

Dear Friends,

It is important that a trader develops a feel of the market. We need to sense how the market is. Today the performance of DOW Jones just shows me something. The market is still bullish, and can't drop much.

Not Even after a 399 points drop at the opening 2 hours.



One way of sensing the sentiment of the market is to take note of what happen during the day when there is a big fall or what happen the next few days after a big day tumble. 

Looking at the intraday chart, we can see that the DOW recovers half the points during the session. It is still 2 hours to the closing (3.15am local time now), but looking at this recovery, I have confidence that the bullish momentum is still alive. 

The reason for this drop today is because of the bad earnings release from all 3 major companies, Microsoft, P&G and Caterpillar. But overall, I still think this earnings season so far isn't too bad afterall. Overall, 79% of companies have reported actual EPS above estimate The percentage of companies reporting EPS above the mean EPS estimate is above both the 1-year (74%) average and the 5-year (73%) average. Let us see what happen to Apple and Facebook earnings these 2 days...

Again I would like to emphasize that DOW has a major support at 17000!

Do not be worried about STI or KLCI now. The bullish momentum is still strong! STI is now above 3400 and KLCI has zoomed past 1800! I believe they still have legs to run! Today opening may see weaker price, but it won't be for long!

Time to focus a bit on local stocks! There are so many stocks that shows big players are now coming in to scoop up the stocks. Do not waste this opportunity to accumulate them!

In my blog, www.danielloh.com , I did touch on some of the Singapore and Malaysia momentum stocks to watch out for! Take a look.


Rgds
Daniel




Malaysia Stock Tip: MYEG (0138) looks to continue its run forward

Dear Friends,

A malaysia momentum stock that is run resting, but capable of further heights!


Now: $2.64
Target:$2.95- $3.00

Stop loss: $2.47


Malaysia Stock Tip: ECOWLD (8206) is on the rise

Dear Friends,

Malaysia stock market is going crazy after the recent sharp drop. Take note of some malaysian stocks. Ecowld (8206) is one of them.


Now: $2.28
Target: $2.47-$2.50

Stop loss: $2.17

Singapore Stock Tip: Wing Tai revival in the cards

Dear Friends,

Looking at the chart, we spotted accumulation in this stock too. Take a look at it...


Now: $1.82
Target 1: $1.97-$2.00
Target 2: $2.09-$2.10

Stop loss: $1.67

Singapore Stock Tip: Chip Eng Seng showing accumulation

Dear Friends,

This is one stock that I like fundamentally. Recently we spotted players are accumulating this stock.


Now: $0.91
Target : $1.10 (Mid term),

(Pls note of short term resistance $0.97-$1.00, but i am willing to hold through it)

Stop loss: $0.80

Monday, 26 January 2015

FREE Seminar by Daniel Loh

<< STI is raging to 3400, what are the stocks that released good earnings in january? >> 


By Daniel Loh 

Join the seminar to find out!

You shall learn:
1) Stocks that should be in your watchlist
2) How do you know stocks has a good earnings?
3) Will STI continue its forward surge?
4) How can you make money consistently in 2015 from the market? 

Date: 
27 Jan  (Tue)  English session or
28 Jan (Wed)  Chinese session 华文讲座

Time: 7pm -10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light

Speaker: Daniel Loh  
Regularly interviewed by Mediacorp FM958
Regular interviewed by Mediacorp Channel 8 Financial Programmes
SIAS investment trainer
Invited speaker for Phillip Securities
Invited speaker for Affin Investment Bank
Invited speaker for OCBC Securities
Invited speaker for Shares Investment
Invited speaker for Shareinvestor

Cost: Free

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Sunday, 25 January 2015

Recent interview Questions by Shares Investment with Daniel Loh

Question 1:

1) 2015 is poised to become a very volatile year in terms of the global economy as well as markets. In your opinion, what are the possible dangers that investors should keep note of. 

Daniel's Answer

2015 is a difficult year to play stocks. If investors are not careful in selecting the right markets to play, one might be hurt. The main reason for the uncertainty is the rise of the interest rate. We have already seen what happened in the last few months. It all started last year july when the US dollar goes into a bull market, ending 13 years of bear market.

Uncertainty of the interest rate has caused investors to park their money inside US dollar. And this has caused a lot of turmoil and volatility in some markets.

Firstly, the Crude Oil price crash as a result of the rise of US dollar. Some may say it is OPEC decision that caused crude to crash. But US dollar does play a significant role too. Then there was a collapse in some currencies such as Euro, Aussie, Yen or some emerging market currencies like Ringgit. The latest episode is of course the spike of the Swiss Franc. Bond Prices also shot up recently.

If retail investors are not careful in selecting the right market to play, they may suffer from hugh losses as volatility in some of these markets are high.
Question 2:

Since you will be talking about crude oil in your address, could you share your thoughts about the price of precious metals?
Daniel's Answer: 

Precious metals surprising has stabilised after the Japanese government announced the second time that it printed money. Gold touched a bottom of $1130 before the rebound. I do think that precious does look like a good investment before the rise of interest rate. 

It is once again a safe haven just before the uncertainty of the FED interest rate decision. That is the reason you see the Gold and Silver are rebounding these few days. I do think there is a chance of higher prices in the mid term.
Question 3:

What do you think are the common mistakes that investors and traders make when executing a trade?

Daniel's Answer:

The most common mistake is most investors do not know the duration they want to hold. When investing, we can day trade, position trade told for 1-2 months or we can buy stocks and hold long term for a few years. 

When most investors buy stocks, they normally do not have an idea how long they intend to hold on to their positions. Only when we are clear about the duration, then we find the methods to suit the time frame. 

An example would be placing stop losses. We are sometimes taught in books that placing stop losses are important. Not necessarily true. Some of the well-known investors don't place stop losses. Investors like Warren Buffett don't, because they are long term investors. 

They even average down to buy more positions when price goes cheaper. We can't say they are wrong. They are long term investors who can hold a position for 20 years. However for day traders, not putting a stop loss would be unimaginable. 

The most important thing for investors is to know what time frame suits them.

Wednesday, 21 January 2015

FREE Seminar by Andy Yew

<< How do you buy China A-shares? What are the sectors and stocks to watch out for? >>
如何买上海A-股? 中国有哪些领域和股票可以留意?

sharing by Andy Yew
主讲:Andy Yew

Dates:
22 Jan 2015, Thu (English Seminar) 7pm - 10pm
23 Jan 2015, Fri (华文讲座) 7pm - 10pm

Sharing on

1) How do you buy China Stocks
2) China Stocks that are suitable for short term trading
3) China Stocks that are suitable for long term and dividend growth

Plus we will be providing analysis on your stocks!

Venue: 
141 Cecil Street, 
Tung Ann Association Building #07-02 S(069541) 
Tanjong Pagar MRT Exit G, walk straight 80m, 
opposite the traffic light


Speaker: Andy Yew (ART system Founder)

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623 

Friday, 16 January 2015

Daniel Loh 1月16日 FM958 电台访问 : 美国支持点在哪里? 国际货币走势似乎疯了,为什么?中国股票不会跟你讲道理!

美国支持点在哪里? 国际货币走势似乎疯了,为什么?

1)      这几天全世界有相当大的波动。
2)      石油继续跌破$50的关卡,美股继续滑落。从最高点18100点滑落到昨晚比市价17320点,下了800点。俄罗斯币继续滑落驶到俄罗斯联储局的主席都被换掉了。
3)      那昨天货币市场更是有了一个这几年最大的惊吓。瑞士央行选择把他的货币与欧元脱钩,驶到欧元对瑞士法郎的价格跌了2000个点位。有许多玩货币的朋友都说这是他们有史以来看到最严重的跌幅。
4)      我觉得这些波动都是因为一件事,美国利率要生息了。全世界的投资家都在准备这件事情。
5)      因为利率不稳定的因素,许多投资家都把钱转到投资美元,驶到美元在去年7月走入了一个大牛市,结束了他长达13年的大熊市。
6)      美元这三年都在一在很狭窄的范围行走。从美元的期货价来看,都一直在8085之间行走。但是在去年9月静悄悄的突破了85块的三年阻力。这个点位就好比上证指数2500点的关卡。一突破,正式进入大牛市。



7)      接着,石油就大掉,石油跟美元就好像跷跷板一样。美元涨、石油跌。其他跟美元对等的货币例如欧元和澳元都崩溃了。
8)      我觉得这样的货币大波动的因素会维持到利率生息为止。
9)      我鼓励大家这几年如果要投资基金或做过激投资,就最好要投资跟美元有关系的东西。
10)   美国经济好转,美元还是会保持强势的趋势。
11)   当然我觉得如果投资股票,也会在利率起之前有波动。因此我在节目中有提过,今年前半年可能不容易玩股票。
12)   要乘低点的时候买进,历史高点的时候卖掉,绝对不要追高。任何时候叶轮说话都会使投资界紧张。
13)   回到美国股市,从技术图表来分析,我觉得这几天美国市场的跌幅已经回到了接近便宜的状态。只要道琼斯可以跌破17000点,我就叫做便宜。现在是17300点,还差300点。
14)   我鼓励大家可以准备。到了17000点,买一些好的业绩股来测试水温。新加坡将公布业绩了。当然大家可以乘这个盈利季节,做好功课,摘选出好的业绩股票来投资。


中国股票不会跟你讲道理

1)      我说过中国股市就是在牛市了。而却是第一阶段的牛市。第一阶段没办法休息太久,点数也没办法拉回太多来整理。
2)      在这个牛市第一阶段,几乎股市疯了,不用看基本面,经济数据不好也不重要,股票业绩就算怎么差,分析师都当作好的来看。为什么?因为如果说不好,股票继续跑,不是自己打自己的嘴巴。那干脆写业绩好的一面。
3)      股市就是掉不深。
4)      我们两个星期前有呼吁大家,一旦上证到3400点就会有一些压力。确实,几天前到了3404点就掉了回来。一度掉到3200点。
5)      可是你看这几天,上证又回来了。又长到了3371点。
6)      大家也不用求上证回到2800点。有一个200-300点的回调就可以进场。
7)      我们去年就说过。
8)      上证只有两个可能会休息很久。一是到3800点。二是股市跑到今年20156月。
9)      大家就好好的研究一下那些高股息的蓝筹股。还是有上涨的空间的。


新加坡留意业绩做好准备

1)      海峡指数现在是3300点。
2)      这几天美国的下滑的确有影响到海指。从近期的高点3370点掉了下来。
3)      但是我认为因为道指已经差不多到了我觉得可能捡便宜的区域,只要17000点以下。
4)      我觉得大家现在可以做好功课,留意一些好的业绩股 。只要美国在17000点一下,买一些来测试水温。大家要记得,买股票股市一击即中的。是有手气的。有时当我们知道便宜的时候,我们买一点来测试。手气越来越好,股票越来越涨,再买。这样你玩股票风险就小了。
5)      如果道指17000点继续上,再买上去。
6)      如果道指跌破17000点,就等两个星期后再进场。


香港跟美国越脱钩走势越好

·         几个星期前,当恒生还在22600点的时候,我有在958呼吁大家开始进场捡便宜。我说过22500-23000点是捡便宜的区域。
·         今天恒生已经涨到24000点了。
·         恒生大家要小心的是25000点的重要管卡。在这个点位之前,我觉得股市都还相当健康。
·         最近我发现美国不好,恒生还是相当的抗跌。这是一件好事。证明他有一点受中国影响。
·         他如果继续有这种跟美国比较脱钩的现象,就让我更有信心他会冲破25000点。
·         香港是我这 前半年比较看好的股市。


日本接近便宜区域了

·         日经期货指数现在是16830点。
·         最近超过18000点两次都掉回。似乎18000点是一个阻力,正好跟道琼斯一样。
·         从技术图表来看,日经指数快到我想要的便宜区域。

·         日经16000-16300点是我觉得捡便宜的区域。现在还差500点的跌幅。

Thursday, 15 January 2015

What is the matter with DOW?! Where is the support?

Dear Friends,

Today the market looks bad. A 300 points drop during mid day in the DOW Jones. Today's drop, I would say, is due to 2 factors.

1) The bad retail sales report that was released today. The actual result of -0.9% is too surprising compared to the expected 0.2%. 



This result is horrendous considering it is the worst retail sales report since mid 2010. And this result comes on the heels of a supposedly "good" december holiday period seems all the more surprising!

And that explains the big drop today. This drop is a follow through of the poor ISM manufacturing report that came out on 2nd Jan. In Jan, DOW has already dropped around 700 points. 


2) The second reason DOW has dropped is because of the poor results recently issued by one of the well known financial bank JP Morgan. Bad earnings miss: $1.19 actual EPS vs $1.30 estimates.

Please check the article below to know its earnings miss:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2820236-jp-morgan-chase-is-down-4-percent-disaster-or-opportunity

Wallstreet are taking the opportunity to sell as they expects the same results from other financial banks that will issue earnings in the next few days.

Today JP Morgan dropped 4%!

However I would suggest let us wait for the other banks results first. It might not be that bad. The reason why JP Morgan results is poor because they report a $990 million in legal expenses, or $1.1 billion on a pretax basis, which was higher than many analysts had forecast.

J.P. Morgan is being investigated by the Justice Department over alleged foreign-exchange rigging and is expected to strike a deal on the matter.  

However I would suggest the other banks might not be having such a poor results as they dont have legal issues. I remembered that last year Bank of America also faced a similar situation when they lost quite a lot in legal fees. Their share price also tanked. But in the end it came back.


To summarise, I would say don't worry too much yet until we see more data on the earnings season. One JP Morgan does not meant anything.

Furthermore, I think DOW still has a strong support at 17000! 300 points away from now! Don't fret just yet! It is a chance to buy stocks cheap, not sell!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com




Monday, 12 January 2015

FREE Seminar by Daniel Loh

<< How to Spot a Bottom of an index or stock that is at a downtrend for 2 years! >>

By Daniel Loh

Daniel Loh has correctly predicted the revival of China Shanghai composite when it broke 2500 on TV and radio last year!!!

Learn what index Daniel Loh is looking at next that might revive exactly just like Shanghai Composite.

Join the seminar to find out how he does it!

You shall learn:
1) How do you use 2 steps to find the bottom of an index or stock?
2) Market Outlook for 2015?
3) Prediction of Crude Oil?
4) How can you make money consistently in 2015 from the market? 

Date: 
13 Jan  (Tue)  English session or
14 Jan (Wed)  Chinese session 华文讲座

Time: 7pm -10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light

Speaker: Daniel Loh  
Regularly interviewed by Mediacorp FM958
Regular interviewed by Mediacorp Channel 8 Financial Programmes
SIAS investment trainer
Invited speaker for Phillip Securities
Invited speaker for Affin Investment Bank
Invited speaker for OCBC Securities
Invited speaker for Shares Investment
Invited speaker for Shareinvestor

Cost: Free

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Thursday, 8 January 2015

Live TV Interview at Studio on Channel 8 (Hello Singapore) Tonight 8 Jan 2014 at 6.45pm

Dear Friends,


I am asked to comment live in studio with another analyst to give our views on the views of 2015, the Crude Oil situation, the STI and challenges at 6.45pm today

If you want to know more about the market direction, tune in to your television, Channel 8.

Rgds
Daniel

Wednesday, 7 January 2015

FREE Singapore Stock Seminar by Andy Yew

<< With earnings coming up, what are the Strong Stocks you can look for in January? >>
业绩报告季节在1月将来了,有那一些强股您能看的?
sharing by Andy Yew

Dates:
8 Jan 2015, Thu (English Seminar) 7pm - 10pm
9 Jan 2015, Fri (华文讲座) 7pm - 10pm

Sharing on
1) Spore Stocks that are trending upwards that you should take note of
2)
 Spore Stocks that are suitable for short term trading
3) Spore Stocks that are showing reversal signals
4) Spore Stocks that are suitable for long term
Plus we will be providing analysis on your stocks!

Venue: 141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building #07-02 S(069541) Tanjong Pagar MRT Exit G, walk straight 80m, opposite the traffic light

Speaker: Andy Yew (ART system Founder) 


To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623 

Will we have good employment figures to stop the DOW drop?

Dear friends,

DOW these few days hasn't been good. It drop from 18103 to 17371 in just 6 trading days, a drop of around 600 points. 600 points doesn't seem much, does it?

This drop is contributed by 2 factors.

1) Crude oil continues to go lower and lower and this has affected the DOW. 

Speculators continue to push the price of crude down. Asian, European and American futures traders take their turns to push down the price one after the other.

The fall of crude now has nothing got to do with demand and supply. It has nothing got to do with OPEC decision. Neither has it got to do with the cost price of oil.

It has got to do with the abundance of money in the market. With different countries printing money, this easy money has trickled down into the hands of big speculators and institutions who don't really care about the economy. One word - GREED!

Having said that, I do think that DOW will slowly detached itself from the influence of crude price as we grow accustomed to the fall of crude.


2) The second factor that affected the drop is the economical report that came out last friday. ISM, institute for supply management has a figure that is below the forecast. Its actual figure is 55.5 versus 57.6 forecast figure. It is a total surprise considering that last month we are still in the midst of the holiday season.

With another important jobs reports that is going to come out this friday, the non-farm payroll report, traders take the chance to profit take. And I think this uncertainty about friday figures pushes the DOW down.

However having said that, our research shows that this jobs report figure on friday may have a good chance of beating the forecast. And there may be a rebound should it beat. In fact today we should already get a glimpse of how the jobs are. There will be a ADP employment report that is a precursor to friday non farm report. I wont be surprise that there may be a rebound if the figures are good!


My trading advice is to stay at the sideline for now until friday non-farm payroll report. 2 scenarios might occur:

a) Report is above expectations: May consider buying some oversold and good stocks.

b) Report is below expectations: DOW may still drop, my opinion is wait for DOW to touch 17000 and below before accumulating the stocks. Below 17000 is what we consider as cheap.


Rgds
Daniel

Monday, 5 January 2015

Daniel Loh 1月2日 FM958 电台访问 : 美国市场这个月第4季度业绩,股市因稳住、中国股市大疯狂!

美国市场这个月第4季度业绩,股市因稳住

1)      星期三晚上美国道琼斯掉了160点,闭市在17823点。S&P500也掉了21点,闭市在2058点。
2)      有很多投资朋友问我,这个下滑会不会又是一个大跌的开始。
3)      从技术图表来分析,18000点似乎是一个相当强的阻力。最近有两次道指动到18000点掉了下来。这个会不会是一个双顶,double top。通常有这种图形都不好。
4)      虽然如此,我觉得美国大掉还不是时候。
5)      我的判断是可能这几天有的是小调整,但大掉因该还不会。
6)      在这里,我提几点为什么我觉得美国股市可能还会继续往上走。
7)      第一点:这个月是美国公布第4季度业绩的月份。从112日开始,美国公司将陆陆续续公布成绩单。第4季度包括10月,11月和12月的营业额。我觉得这个第4季度的业绩因该还不错。根据一些报道显示美国人在这个季节里有 消费比较多。这个迹象会反映在一些公司的业绩,驶到一些公司的成绩比预期来得好。
8)      第二点:星期三160点的跌幅我觉得不是因为基本面的因素,而是因为石油又创了新的低点,盘中到了52.44的低点。这驶到石油有关的股票再次走弱,影响整个股市。但是我认为石油是很有可能在这个月或下个月到底。因此我不觉得股市会因为石油而大跌。我觉得大家可以留意一下石油期货的价格。
9)      石油这个月非常强的阻力在60.99。如果这个月石油可以站上60.99的大关,石油正式又复活了。如果复活了,大家也可以看那些跌的深,石油领域的股票。
10)   第三点我觉得美国为什么会继续往上走的原因是:这个月的经济报告数据因该还不错。我预测数据因该会比预测来得好。大家要留意两个数据。一个是今晚公布的ISM,采购经理指数报告。第二是下个星期五公布的就业报告。如果这两个 报告都比预期来得好,一月 的股市就还会往上冲。虽然报告还没出来,我觉得因为季节的关系,因该还不错。因此这个月股市也很难大掉。
11)   在此我再总结为什么我觉得这个月的股市还可能继续往上,回到18000点以上的三个原因是。1)公司第4季度报告因该不错,2)石油这个月或下个月可能正式到谷底,3)经济报告的数据这个月可能也不错。
12)   当然我也只是猜测会不错,大家还是要观察刚才我讲的数据报告。

中国股市大疯狂

1)      我在前几个月已经说过中国股市现在已经确认是牛市了,你一定要抓住机会。当时冲破2500点,我们就提到中国股市复活了,不要害怕,赶快投资。
2)      今天我们看一下:已经是3234点了。新年前夕又长了68点,真是惊人。
3)      这就是我在节目有提过的,牛市的第一阶段。牛市的第一阶段,几乎股市疯了,似乎每个星期,每个月在上升。不用看基本面,不用看公司的业绩或中国的经济。中国的经济似乎已经跟股票脱钩了。经济数据不好,股票还是跑。
4)      但是大家也不用现在追高,从技术图表来看,短期上证的阻力在3300点到3400点。这个也是2009年的高点。我觉得动到可能会有点下滑。大家就乘股市回调的时候进场。
5)      大家也不用担心股市回调后会不会完蛋。去年我说过,中国股市今年我的目标是3800点。还有很大的成长空间。
6)      大家也记得,在这个阶段,外资通过沪港通的进入的关系,大家最好买的就是上证的成分股。买那个给你最高股息的蓝筹股一定没错。
7)      刚好我们有通过沪港通,大家都可以买到中国的蓝筹股。

新加坡市场3400点要谨慎

1)      海峡指数现在是3368点。
2)      我还记得几个月前我在节目中有提过,全世界股市可能会跑到年底。两个星期前海指因为石油的大跌,结果掉到3200点。
3)      有些朋友就问我的看法。我还是保持我乐观的判断,海指会回来,不用害怕。短短两个星期,海指就跑了170点。
4)      今年我是蛮看好海峡指数的走势。特别是下半年。
5)      短期来说,因为我觉得美国股市还有上涨的空间,海指可能也会继续上升。
6)      但技术图表来看,海指在3400-3450点的确有一个相当大的阻力。如果突破3400点,在这个范围,我觉得大家还是要小心。
7)      最近,我也发现跟中国有关系的领域板块和股票有点上升。这个中国风可能驶到这些股票复活。大家可以留意一下。当然要如何知道一个领域或个股已经复活了,可能就要研究一下图表分析。如果到家想学一下方法,等一下我会提一个免费的讲座。

香港市场迈向25000?

·         几个星期前,当恒生还在22600点的时候,我有在958呼吁大家开始进场捡便宜。我说过22500-23000点是捡便宜的区域。
·         今天恒生已经涨到23783点了。
·         短期我觉得恒生突破24000点,因该没问题。但是25000点是重要的管卡。一碰到可能会回调。
·         香港是一个我今年相当看好的一个股市,大家可以留意。


日本市场太多利好消息

·         日经期货指数现在是17585点。
·         最近超过18000点两次都掉回。似乎18000点是一个阻力,正好跟道琼斯一样。
·         但是我觉得18000点只是暂时的阻力。
·         中期来看我蛮看好日本股市在2015年前半年的走势。

·         安倍总统的连任和日本货币宽松的政策会驶到股市继续往上升。