Thursday, 28 June 2018

958 Interview June 28, 2018: Wallstreet is just using "Trade War" as an Excuse for the Fall! (Translated to English using Google Translate)

         Wallstreet is just using "Trade War" as an Excuse for the Fall!

Last night Dow Jones fell 165 points to close at 24,117.
In the last 2 weeks, US stocks fell nearly 1400 points. The trend is relatively weak.The biggest culprit seems to be "trade war". Two weeks ago, Trump implemented the tariffs on $50m worth of China Imported Goods In fact, please note that this is nothing new.
As early as months ago, Trump already announced plans to implement the tax tariffs,.The stock market has already tumbled hard because of this trade war issue. The only difference is that Trump starts the implementation only two weeks ago.

My opinion is that this US stock market drop is not really because of Trade War. The biggest reason is because it has risen too much !
Just two weeks ago, many US stocks have hit a new high. Example: two weeks ago, Apple's stock price rose to $194 all-time high price. Now it falls back to $184 Two weeks ago, Microsoft's share price rose to $102 historical high price. Now it falls to $97 
In fact, the biggest reason of the drop is because a lot of US stocks have hit record high price. This pullback is normal!
It just happens there is this Trade War news that happened. It became an excuse for the market correction. 
The volatility in recent days aren't as high as that in March this year. If you remember in March the market reacted violently to the trade war fears. More so than now. At that time, DOW can easily drop 400 to 500 points in one single trading session.
More importantly after the drop in March, many technology stocks still climbed to record high price two months later. This is resilience.
My view is that the US stock market is still quite healthy. After a while, everyone will forget this theme about trade war again.
Do not miss this chance to invest! 

        reasons why I'm optimistic about the US stock market

1) US companies will start to report 2nd quarter earnings next month - When many companies report earnings, Wall Street focus will slowly shift from the international political scene to companies earnings. This trade war news will soon be forgotten.
2) US companies earnings this year will be fantastic - This is because of the US tax cut policy. US companies earnings growth this year is projected to increase 30-40%  because of the tax cuts. Many US companies earnings reports will be excellent. I wouldn't worry too much about the upcoming 2nd quarter earnings. Please remember that when we invest in stocks, the most important word is "EARNINGS". Other news such as trade war are merely noise. Do not be distracted!
3) US economic data is very healthy - The unemployment rate in June has dropped to 3.7% This is the lowest unemployment rate in the last 20 years. That shows that the job market is very vibrant. Data on manufacturing report also shows better numbers than expected.
4) Looking at charts, Dow Jones has found a very strong support at the 200day Moving Average - Whenever DOW drop to the 200 -day moving average, chances of a rebound is always high.
Please remember that in investment, we should always buy low and sell high. If stocks run everyday, i will be worried of investing. But if stocks drop, I will be looking to invest. This correction recently provide us with this chance to BUY!

·       Singapore stock market is an investment opportunity - Look at Banking and Oil Sectors

Today STI is 3262, up by around points. I think this is a very good chance. When STI was high at 3600 , I still worried about the drop, Tpday it has dropped to 3262, giving us a 10% discount. This is a GIFT!

My opinion remains the same. I think STI at 3300-3350 is a bargain and support. Now at 3262 , it has gotten cheaper than what I imagined.

If you still worry about trade war. my suggestion is you can invest a little to test the water first. If the stock market rose back to 3300 or more points, start accumulating. If it continues to fall, then don't bother to invest.

Testing the water is sometimes important in investing.

Of course, Singapore big bank stocks have fallen with STI ever since the drop from 3600. Watch the Banking stocks. The banks afterall will definitely benefit from the rise in interest rates this year. 

Another sector I will look at is that oil and gas sector. Oil stocks have fallen quite a bit over the last few months. However do not forget that oil today is back above $ 70If oil price can maintain at $ 70 or more, oil and gas stocks will certainly benefit.


·         China is Asia's worst-performing stock market

Shanghai Composite Index dropped a lo because of a trade war. It is the weakest Asia index. Today it is 2816 points. I think it is a chance to find some good China blue chips stocks. When the index rebound, these blue chip counters will rebound strongly.


958访谈 2018年6月28日:美国股市只是把 "贸易战" 作为滑落的一个借口!


·        美国股市只是把 "贸易战" 作为滑落的一个借口!

道琼斯昨晚闭市在24117点,跌了165点。
美国股市这两周跌了接近1400点,走势比较弱。最大的罪魁祸首似乎就是因为贸易战。特朗普两个星期前对中国500亿进口货物实施了征税的政策。其实这个也不是什么新鲜事。
早在3个月前,特朗普已经宣布要实施这个征税的政策,股票已经掉过一轮了。唯一不同就是两个星期前美国才真正实施。
我的想法是美国股市滑落也不是真正因为贸易战的问题。最大的原因是因为涨太多!
两个星期前,美国很多股票已经创下了历史高点。比如:苹果的股价两周前涨到了194历史高点。现在跌倒184。微软的股价两周前涨到了102历史高点。现在跌倒了97。其实最大的原因是因为很多股票的价格已经创下了历史高点。回调一些我认为是正常的。
刚好有了这个贸易战的主题作为市场的借口。要不市场已经没有其他借口可提了。
大家不难看到这一次贸易战的事件没有真正驶到美国道琼斯一天跌400500点。如果大家还记得,三月的时候,市场不是像现在这样温驯的掉。
当时我上节目的时候,每次都说市场又跌了400点,波动率非常大。更重要的是三月四月大掉过后,很多科技股又在一两个月后创下历史高点。
我的看法是美国的股市还是相当健康,相当抗跌的。一阵子过后,大家又会忘记贸易战的问题了。
我倒认为大家可以趁这个滑落进场投资。这是难得的一次机会。

·        4个原因为什么我看好美国股市
第一:美国公司下个月开始将会公布他们第二季度的业绩报告 - 当很多公司公布业绩,通常那个月华尔街都不会太关注比如:贸易战这个国际事件。反而目光是放在个股的表现。坏新闻都会被市场淡忘。
第二:美国公司今年都会赚大钱 - 因为美国减税的政策会驶到他们的盈利增长30-40%。因此今年很多美国公司的盈利报告都相当的漂亮。大家根本不用担心美国公司的业绩表现。投资股票大家一定要记得,就是“业绩”两个字。其他新闻比如贸易战都是假的。
第三:美国的经济数据非常健康 六月这个月的失业率数字是3.7%。这是美国这20年以来最低的数据。也就是说美国很多人都有工作。制造业报告的数据也显示比市场的判断还要好。
第四:从图表来看,道琼斯指数已经跌倒了非常强的支持 道琼斯跌到了200天的均线。一旦跌到200天的均线,我认为反弹的几率相当的大。
总结:我认为投资股票就是希望买低卖高。如果股市每天跑我还担心。但是股市跌了一些,我反而认为是机会捡便宜。现在我认为就是这个机会了!

·        新加坡股市也是一个投资机会 银行石油领域股跌多了

今天海指在3262点左右,涨了大概6点。同样我认为海指是一个非常好的机会。海指在3600点的时候我反而担心,这一两个月海指从3600点已经跌了10%。这是一个市场给我们的礼物。

我的观点不变。我认为海指在3300-3350点就是捡便宜的范围。现在3262,比我想象更便宜了。

如果大家还担心这个贸易战的问题。哪我鼓励你投资一点测试水温。如果股市涨回3300点以上,慢慢加仓。如果继续跌,就展示不看。

当然新加坡3大银行股跟海指的表现一样。自从海指到3600点就跌到现在。因此我认为大家可以多留意银行股。毕竟利率的上升会对银行股的业绩有帮助。

另外一个领域大家可以留意的就是石油股。这几个月石油股都一直在滑落。但是不要忘记,石油又回来$70以上了。如果能保持在$70以上,我认为大家可以留意石油领域的股票。


·        中国是亚洲表现最差的股市

中国上证指数这几天因为贸易战的关系,是亚洲最受影响的指数。跌倒了2816点。我认为大家可以趁这个机会寻找一些基本面好的中国蓝筹股。当指数反弹,这些股一定收益。

香港股市现在是28550点左右,今天涨了200点。最近也因为贸易战的因素,跌了一些。我认为任何时候都可能会反弹。我也是认为大家可以留意恒生指数。


Wednesday, 27 June 2018

US Stock Tip: Coherent (COHR) is a fundamental growth stock that has been oversold!

Dear Friends,

I like oversold stocks with good fundamentals that tumbled a lot. This is where I know I can get my hands on a stock that has a chance of a good rebound.

Coherent (COHR), a listed stock in Nasdaq may be one of them.

Coherent is a stock that engages in the design, manufacture and service of lasers and related accessories. Their products are used in microelectronics manufacturing, medical diagnostics, and therapeutic medical applications.

4 Reasons why I like this stock:

1) It has tumbled down from $329 early start of the year to today price of $152. 50% Great US Stock Discount!


2) Looking at the Earnings results, this stock shows a good increase in earnings this year with a 135% increase in Earnings per share (EPS). EPS Quarter to Quarter increases by 53.20%. These are quite good results.

The future EPS is projected to increase by 17.50% over the next 5 years, which is a pretty decent growth.


3) Coherent Forward P/E ratio is at an amazingly low 9.22 multiple. This is very low compared to even S&P 500 P/E ratio. This means that this stock is very cheap.

4) Coherent Long term Debt to Equity Ratio is low at 0.35. COHR appears to have made good use of debt, producing operating cash levels of 0.71x total debt in the prior year. This is a strong indication that debt is reasonably met with cash generated.


Overall, I think given that a lot of Nasdaq tech stocks are already at a high price, this is one stock that is amazingly low in price and valuation, with a strong growth rate shown this year with good balance sheet and low debt!

I am aiming for a first price target of $167-$170, with a second price target of $195-$200!


Rgds
Daniel Loh

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STI is indeed mouth watering tasty at 3280!

Dear friends,

I really like the recent drop. As i have mentioned in past articles, the support of STI is at 3300-3350.

I still maintained my view.

My view is that anything below 3300 will be a rubber band effect.

There is a strong chance of a rebound.

Looking at the chart today, i really like the candlestick formation.

It has an engulfing candle with a full body hollow candle.

Will there be a rebound from now onwards?

We shall see.

I have however set my 1st target as 3450!


Rgds
Daniel Loh

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Tuesday, 19 June 2018

STI is the Only Flower stuck in a pile of Cow Dung! - The only major index in Asia that is in the Green

Dear Friends,

A few days ago, I issued a post on where I think is the accumulation area of STI - 3300-3350. Yesterday it dropped into this region.

Posting a few days back:
http://www.danielloh.com/2018/06/sti-cheap-cheap-at-3300-3350.html

And last night, Donald Trump issue another threat on China saying he would implement 10% tariffs on US$200B worth of China Goods.

This scare the hell out of Asia market again. 

Today Hang Seng has dropped 650 points, Nikkei 300 points, Shanghai Composite 90 points!


Ouch!

But wait a minute, Singapore STI is up by near to 10 points now! 

What on earth is happening?

In Chinese, this is called, "一朵鲜花插在牛粪上 ”, meaning
"One flower stuck in a pile of Cow Dung".

In trading, we call this phenomenon "Resilience"

This is one of the most important concept when it comes to trading.

In a down market, i always study which stock index is still in the green.
In a sell down day, i always study which stock still is still strong.
In a lousy month, i always study which sector has a positive month.

This is the stock index, the sector or the stock that is more resilient than the others.

When market recovers, they will run faster!

I always say in investment "Don't worry about a Down Day!" "Down days are what differentiate the Warriors from Cowards!"




Rgds
Daniel Loh

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"To achieve Financial Freedom, Be Financially Educated" - Daniel Loh

US Stock Tip: This 2nd Largest Chinese E-commerce company just got a Big Boost!

JD.com is the 2nd largest E-commerce company in China. JD.com is also known as Jingdong is headquartered in Beijing, but listed in Nasdaq.

Yesterday news came out that Google is investing $500m into this company in a joint venture deal that will benefit both parties.

In a joint statement, they say that "By applying JD’s supply chain and logistics expertise and Google’s technology strengths, the two companies aim to explore the creation of next generation retail infrastructure solutions, with the goal of offering helpful, personalized and frictionless shopping experiences."

Today you must not ignore the potential of JD.com. 

4 reasons why i like this company:

1) It is working with a lot of other internet giants to increase its membership. Membership is GOLD nowadays!

2) JD.com is the next Amazon - It is spending crazy money to do on technology and building logistic infrastructure all over China. That is the real reason why JD.com price have not fly through the roof yet. Their earnings reports are still showing tremendous growth.

But please remember that 4 years ago, we are saying the same thing to Amazon, who spends so much money on building logistics infrastructures. And see how Amazon is reaping its rewards today. See how far behind is Ebay today. 

Taobao.com so far is still the number 1 e-commerce website in China. And if Taobao did not buck up and improve its quality of products, infrastructure, and technology to provide easier usage, Taobao.com will be the next Ebay.com

3) It is selling premium stuff on its website instead of pirated products or poor quality products. That to me is what brings Ebay down. And JD.com products are all guaranteed. It is building a relationship and Trust with its clients!

4) It's price is dented recently because of Trade War Fears! From a high price of US$50, it has dropped to $35 lowest because of the quarrel. But the good thing is even if trade war continues, JD.com earnings won't be that affected.

Its main revenue comes from Chinese consumers and not overseas. So whether got trade war or not doesn't matter! That means any pullback because of trade war is an opportunity to Buy, not Sell!




To sum it up, a lot of investors who invest in stocks are myopic and look at short term earnings reports or news. That should not be the way.

Look far!

Forecast what will happen 10 years later.

JD.com is one stock that should be in your portfolio for the next 10 years.



Rgds
Daniel Loh

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"To achieve Financial Freedom, Be Financially Educated" - Daniel Loh

Monday, 18 June 2018

Trade War Fear again!? Old Crying Wolf story repeats again...

Dear Friends,

The stock market last friday got a shock again when Donald Trump sounded out that they will implement the $50Billion tariffs after talks between the two countries failed to appease White House demands on reducing huge U.S. trade deficits.

Story on marketwatch:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/escalating-us-china-trade-spat-comes-at-a-bad-time-for-global-growth-economist-says-2018-06-15

US market on Friday fell, which leads to a Considerably Big drop in Singapore Stock market today. 

STI went down 32.7 points, near to a 1% drop today!

My opinion is do not worry about the continued fear on trade war issues. When buying stocks, go back to its Fundamentals

Noises like this Trade War News occasionally might steer investors' focus off track.

What we need to ask are 
1) Are Companies Earnings are still Strong 
2) Is it still beating market Expectations 
3) Is the Economy still healthy?

My answer to all 3 questions is YES!!!!

Then no matter what issues. It can be Trade War Fear, or North Korea tearing up peace contract or Debt Ceiling problems or even if Trump fired his Vice president etc... basically any news is Opportunity to Buy into the oversold stocks!

Investment Tip: 
Look at stocks that are sold down because of trade war fears! 
Look at China internet companies like Tencent, JD.com, Alibaba, Sina, Weibo, Sogou, Baozun, Momo! 
Look at Soybean prices!

My opinion is that Donald Trump is doing his best to get China to give more on the negotiation table. This trade war dispute will be solved sooner or later.

Just don't worry!

Rgds
Daniel Loh
www.danielloh.com
FB: https://www.facebook.com/DaniellohInvestmentGroup/



Thursday, 14 June 2018

I am Back!

Dear Friends,

It has been a long time since I posted on my blog in regards to my opinion of the Stock Market!

Sorry for it.

But I am back now, and will start to post regularly in my blog.

Please do add yourselves into the "Daily Newsletters" by dropping your email, so that you can receive FREE Emails on Market Outlook everyday!

And do share this blog or my Facebook page to your friends.

Please like my Facebook page too!
https://www.facebook.com/DaniellohInvestmentGroup/

Happy Trading!

Investment is the way to Financial Freedom

Rgds
Daniel Loh
www.danielloh.com
FB: https://www.facebook.com/DaniellohInvestmentGroup/

STI Cheap Cheap at 3300-3350!

Dear Friends,

Always buy into an index when it drops hard! STI over the last one month happens to be so.

From 3600 plus, it has dropped to 3380 points today.

And I think this is one chance not to be missed.

Target to accumulate is 3300-3350!


One way I like to invest in STI is of course the STI ETF which is now near to $3.40. By the way it gives you dividend of 5cts too.

Happy Trading!

Rgds
Daniel Loh
www.danielloh.com


US Stock Tip: SOGOU (SOGO) is one of the US Stock in my portfolio

Dear Friends,

This is indeed one stock I am studying closely for a few reasons.

1) Chart clearly shows me this stock has bottomed with a Rounded Bottom and a breakout off the $10 resistance, which is also a psychological resistance.


2) This stock has dropped almost half price since its IPO, which is one of the things I look out for in IPO stock. It hopefully can drop half price to a cheap value so that it eliminate the "Over-subscription Effect". Remember a lot of oversubscribed stocks need to drop half price before a turnaround.

3) It is the 2nd Largest Search Engine in China, after Baidu - Meaning it can make a lot of money from advertisement. It is almost like Yahoo of US, just that China internet market is still growing at a fast pace. Furthermore 40% of Chinese population still have not started to use internet yet.

4) Its future Earnings Per Share (EPS) projection by analysts is fabulous!

EPS for next year is forecast to grow by 57%
EPS for next 5 years is forecast to grow by 36% 



To me investing in a company that has growth potential is important. 

As I always mention, "Don't invest in a Company Past! Invest in its Future!"

To sum it up, this is a Long Term Stock I am looking to accumulate if it falls. At the same time, I will also keep track of its Actual EPS to know whether this stock is still a potential Multi-Bagger (a stock that can grow multiple times)

Rgds
Happy Trading 

Daniel Loh



958访谈 2018年6月14日:美国昨晚宣布加息4次,会对股市照成什么影响?


·        



  美国确定加息4次 - 华尔街不用担心利率问题了!

道琼斯昨晚闭市在25201点,跌了119点。
昨晚美国最大的新闻就是美联储的加息。美联储加了0.25%的利息,从1.75%涨到了2%。这个加息可以说市场已经预料到了。但唯一没想到的是美联储既然公布今年会加息多两次,也就是说总共今年可能加息4次,比原本的3次还要多。
这其实就是华尔街最不想听的话 - 加息比预期还要快。因此昨晚道指从原本正的数字变到负115点。当然今天开市亚洲市场也是一片红。
但是大家不用担心。我觉得鲍威尔坦然让我们知道会增加4次反而是好事。他昨晚也说过他最担心的是如果不逐渐增长,万一通货膨胀涨的太快,利率一旦被逼要涨得更快,就会造成像前两次的金融风暴一样的结果。
至少我认为他有跟我们说他的担忧和原因。从昨晚的市场走势来看,我认为这样的宣布没照成股市大跌。道指只是跌一百多点。这就证明市场已经接受了这个联储局的计划。今年大家也不用担心或猜测联储局会增加利率几次了。
股灾是因为利率跌、不是因为利率涨!
跟据我的研究,股灾来不是因为利率涨,而是因为利率跌。因此大家也不需要太操心。现在我们还是在大牛市当中。
美国的股市还是相当的健康的。我还记得两周前,我们还在讨论意大利的政治问题,今天美国市场似乎已经忘记意大利了。几个月前贸易战的问题也不再提了。我们每一次都有呼吁大家这些事件都是买入的机会。
美国股表现比新加坡股好几十倍
几个月前我们还提到,在贸易战的时候一定要买大跌的科技股。当时很多科技股跌了20%。今天的科技股统统都创了历史高点了。阿里巴巴,Facebook, 亚马逊,Netflix,微软,苹果全部都在这几天创下了历史高点的记录。
我的看法是今年美国股市还是相当健康,有任何的大跌大家一定要趁机会捡便宜买入。美国还是全世界最好玩的股票市场。相比之下,新加坡股票的表现不及美国。比如美国的亚马逊股价可以在9年涨50倍,苹股价在9年涨18倍,Netflix 9年涨150倍,从$2.50涨到今天的$380。就连最差的微软也能在9年涨7倍。
坦白说如果大家花一点功夫了解美国股票,你会发现这个市场会比新加坡股票还容易赚钱。最重要是这些美国股大家都很熟悉而却每天都在用的产品和服务。很多朋友每天都有用到Facebook, Google, 苹果, 微软。这些公司的产品和服务都卖到全世界,因此成长速度绝对比新加坡股来的高。
美国银行股下半年要留意
美国银行这几个月的表现比较一般。因此我认为大家可以多留意美国的Bank of AmericaJP MorganCitigroup。利率接下来会增长比较快,银行股表现一定会不错 值得留意。

·        新加坡股市 3300-3350点是买入的机会

今天海指在3380点左右,跌了12点。这一个月海指的表现不怎么好。从3600点的阻力跌倒现在。但是我也曾经有在节目中有提过,海指一旦跌到33003350点就是机会。希望海指能跌多30点。进入了这个区域,3300-3350点,我觉得大家可以开始投资这个指数。大家可以留意STIETF。投资海指ETF的其中好处就是每一年还有4%的股息。
当然另外就是大家也可以留意银行股。利率的上升会为银行股带来更多盈利。
·        
  中国股市能从贸易战爬出来!

我们今年有一直提到,中国上证指数的支持就在3000-3050点。今天上证跌到了3048点,跌进了我们的买入范围。我认为大家又可以捡便宜了。

我认为上证有机会迈向3150点。整体来说,我还是蛮看好中国股市下半年的表现。贸易战会有和平结果因为双方都不想要有贸易战。大家可以多留意中国科技股。
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香港股市现在是30530点,今天跌了接近200点。
从技术图表来看,30000点是恒生巨大的支持。我认为恒生从30000点反弹的可能性很大。

958 Interview June 28, 2018: Wallstreet is just using "Trade War" as an Excuse for the Fall! (Translated to English using Google Translate)

          Wallstreet is just using "Trade War" as an Excuse for the Fall! Last night Dow Jones fell 165 points to close at  2...