Tuesday, 19 June 2018

STI is the Only Flower stuck in a pile of Cow Dung! - The only major index in Asia that is in the Green

Dear Friends,

A few days ago, I issued a post on where I think is the accumulation area of STI - 3300-3350. Yesterday it dropped into this region.

Posting a few days back:
http://www.danielloh.com/2018/06/sti-cheap-cheap-at-3300-3350.html

And last night, Donald Trump issue another threat on China saying he would implement 10% tariffs on US$200B worth of China Goods.

This scare the hell out of Asia market again. 

Today Hang Seng has dropped 650 points, Nikkei 300 points, Shanghai Composite 90 points!


Ouch!

But wait a minute, Singapore STI is up by near to 10 points now! 

What on earth is happening?

In Chinese, this is called, "一朵鲜花插在牛粪上 ”, meaning
"One flower stuck in a pile of Cow Dung".

In trading, we call this phenomenon "Resilience"

This is one of the most important concept when it comes to trading.

In a down market, i always study which stock index is still in the green.
In a sell down day, i always study which stock still is still strong.
In a lousy month, i always study which sector has a positive month.

This is the stock index, the sector or the stock that is more resilient than the others.

When market recovers, they will run faster!

I always say in investment "Don't worry about a Down Day!" "Down days are what differentiate the Warriors from Cowards!"




Rgds
Daniel Loh

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"To achieve Financial Freedom, Be Financially Educated" - Daniel Loh

US Stock Tip: This 2nd Largest Chinese E-commerce company just got a Big Boost!

JD.com is the 2nd largest E-commerce company in China. JD.com is also known as Jingdong is headquartered in Beijing, but listed in Nasdaq.

Yesterday news came out that Google is investing $500m into this company in a joint venture deal that will benefit both parties.

In a joint statement, they say that "By applying JD’s supply chain and logistics expertise and Google’s technology strengths, the two companies aim to explore the creation of next generation retail infrastructure solutions, with the goal of offering helpful, personalized and frictionless shopping experiences."

Today you must not ignore the potential of JD.com. 

4 reasons why i like this company:

1) It is working with a lot of other internet giants to increase its membership. Membership is GOLD nowadays!

2) JD.com is the next Amazon - It is spending crazy money to do on technology and building logistic infrastructure all over China. That is the real reason why JD.com price have not fly through the roof yet. Their earnings reports are still showing tremendous growth.

But please remember that 4 years ago, we are saying the same thing to Amazon, who spends so much money on building logistics infrastructures. And see how Amazon is reaping its rewards today. See how far behind is Ebay today. 

Taobao.com so far is still the number 1 e-commerce website in China. And if Taobao did not buck up and improve its quality of products, infrastructure, and technology to provide easier usage, Taobao.com will be the next Ebay.com

3) It is selling premium stuff on its website instead of pirated products or poor quality products. That to me is what brings Ebay down. And JD.com products are all guaranteed. It is building a relationship and Trust with its clients!

4) It's price is dented recently because of Trade War Fears! From a high price of US$50, it has dropped to $35 lowest because of the quarrel. But the good thing is even if trade war continues, JD.com earnings won't be that affected.

Its main revenue comes from Chinese consumers and not overseas. So whether got trade war or not doesn't matter! That means any pullback because of trade war is an opportunity to Buy, not Sell!




To sum it up, a lot of investors who invest in stocks are myopic and look at short term earnings reports or news. That should not be the way.

Look far!

Forecast what will happen 10 years later.

JD.com is one stock that should be in your portfolio for the next 10 years.



Rgds
Daniel Loh

Leave your friend's email on www.danielloh.com to receive daily Tips and Live updates on Market
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"To achieve Financial Freedom, Be Financially Educated" - Daniel Loh

Monday, 18 June 2018

Trade War Fear again!? Old Crying Wolf story repeats again...

Dear Friends,

The stock market last friday got a shock again when Donald Trump sounded out that they will implement the $50Billion tariffs after talks between the two countries failed to appease White House demands on reducing huge U.S. trade deficits.

Story on marketwatch:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/escalating-us-china-trade-spat-comes-at-a-bad-time-for-global-growth-economist-says-2018-06-15

US market on Friday fell, which leads to a Considerably Big drop in Singapore Stock market today. 

STI went down 32.7 points, near to a 1% drop today!

My opinion is do not worry about the continued fear on trade war issues. When buying stocks, go back to its Fundamentals

Noises like this Trade War News occasionally might steer investors' focus off track.

What we need to ask are 
1) Are Companies Earnings are still Strong 
2) Is it still beating market Expectations 
3) Is the Economy still healthy?

My answer to all 3 questions is YES!!!!

Then no matter what issues. It can be Trade War Fear, or North Korea tearing up peace contract or Debt Ceiling problems or even if Trump fired his Vice president etc... basically any news is Opportunity to Buy into the oversold stocks!

Investment Tip: 
Look at stocks that are sold down because of trade war fears! 
Look at China internet companies like Tencent, JD.com, Alibaba, Sina, Weibo, Sogou, Baozun, Momo! 
Look at Soybean prices!

My opinion is that Donald Trump is doing his best to get China to give more on the negotiation table. This trade war dispute will be solved sooner or later.

Just don't worry!

Rgds
Daniel Loh
www.danielloh.com
FB: https://www.facebook.com/DaniellohInvestmentGroup/



Thursday, 14 June 2018

I am Back!

Dear Friends,

It has been a long time since I posted on my blog in regards to my opinion of the Stock Market!

Sorry for it.

But I am back now, and will start to post regularly in my blog.

Please do add yourselves into the "Daily Newsletters" by dropping your email, so that you can receive FREE Emails on Market Outlook everyday!

And do share this blog or my Facebook page to your friends.

Please like my Facebook page too!
https://www.facebook.com/DaniellohInvestmentGroup/

Happy Trading!

Investment is the way to Financial Freedom

Rgds
Daniel Loh
www.danielloh.com
FB: https://www.facebook.com/DaniellohInvestmentGroup/

STI Cheap Cheap at 3300-3350!

Dear Friends,

Always buy into an index when it drops hard! STI over the last one month happens to be so.

From 3600 plus, it has dropped to 3380 points today.

And I think this is one chance not to be missed.

Target to accumulate is 3300-3350!


One way I like to invest in STI is of course the STI ETF which is now near to $3.40. By the way it gives you dividend of 5cts too.

Happy Trading!

Rgds
Daniel Loh
www.danielloh.com


US Stock Tip: SOGOU (SOGO) is one of the US Stock in my portfolio

Dear Friends,

This is indeed one stock I am studying closely for a few reasons.

1) Chart clearly shows me this stock has bottomed with a Rounded Bottom and a breakout off the $10 resistance, which is also a psychological resistance.


2) This stock has dropped almost half price since its IPO, which is one of the things I look out for in IPO stock. It hopefully can drop half price to a cheap value so that it eliminate the "Over-subscription Effect". Remember a lot of oversubscribed stocks need to drop half price before a turnaround.

3) It is the 2nd Largest Search Engine in China, after Baidu - Meaning it can make a lot of money from advertisement. It is almost like Yahoo of US, just that China internet market is still growing at a fast pace. Furthermore 40% of Chinese population still have not started to use internet yet.

4) Its future Earnings Per Share (EPS) projection by analysts is fabulous!

EPS for next year is forecast to grow by 57%
EPS for next 5 years is forecast to grow by 36% 



To me investing in a company that has growth potential is important. 

As I always mention, "Don't invest in a Company Past! Invest in its Future!"

To sum it up, this is a Long Term Stock I am looking to accumulate if it falls. At the same time, I will also keep track of its Actual EPS to know whether this stock is still a potential Multi-Bagger (a stock that can grow multiple times)

Rgds
Happy Trading 

Daniel Loh



958访谈 2018年6月14日:美国昨晚宣布加息4次,会对股市照成什么影响?


·        



  美国确定加息4次 - 华尔街不用担心利率问题了!

道琼斯昨晚闭市在25201点,跌了119点。
昨晚美国最大的新闻就是美联储的加息。美联储加了0.25%的利息,从1.75%涨到了2%。这个加息可以说市场已经预料到了。但唯一没想到的是美联储既然公布今年会加息多两次,也就是说总共今年可能加息4次,比原本的3次还要多。
这其实就是华尔街最不想听的话 - 加息比预期还要快。因此昨晚道指从原本正的数字变到负115点。当然今天开市亚洲市场也是一片红。
但是大家不用担心。我觉得鲍威尔坦然让我们知道会增加4次反而是好事。他昨晚也说过他最担心的是如果不逐渐增长,万一通货膨胀涨的太快,利率一旦被逼要涨得更快,就会造成像前两次的金融风暴一样的结果。
至少我认为他有跟我们说他的担忧和原因。从昨晚的市场走势来看,我认为这样的宣布没照成股市大跌。道指只是跌一百多点。这就证明市场已经接受了这个联储局的计划。今年大家也不用担心或猜测联储局会增加利率几次了。
股灾是因为利率跌、不是因为利率涨!
跟据我的研究,股灾来不是因为利率涨,而是因为利率跌。因此大家也不需要太操心。现在我们还是在大牛市当中。
美国的股市还是相当的健康的。我还记得两周前,我们还在讨论意大利的政治问题,今天美国市场似乎已经忘记意大利了。几个月前贸易战的问题也不再提了。我们每一次都有呼吁大家这些事件都是买入的机会。
美国股表现比新加坡股好几十倍
几个月前我们还提到,在贸易战的时候一定要买大跌的科技股。当时很多科技股跌了20%。今天的科技股统统都创了历史高点了。阿里巴巴,Facebook, 亚马逊,Netflix,微软,苹果全部都在这几天创下了历史高点的记录。
我的看法是今年美国股市还是相当健康,有任何的大跌大家一定要趁机会捡便宜买入。美国还是全世界最好玩的股票市场。相比之下,新加坡股票的表现不及美国。比如美国的亚马逊股价可以在9年涨50倍,苹股价在9年涨18倍,Netflix 9年涨150倍,从$2.50涨到今天的$380。就连最差的微软也能在9年涨7倍。
坦白说如果大家花一点功夫了解美国股票,你会发现这个市场会比新加坡股票还容易赚钱。最重要是这些美国股大家都很熟悉而却每天都在用的产品和服务。很多朋友每天都有用到Facebook, Google, 苹果, 微软。这些公司的产品和服务都卖到全世界,因此成长速度绝对比新加坡股来的高。
美国银行股下半年要留意
美国银行这几个月的表现比较一般。因此我认为大家可以多留意美国的Bank of AmericaJP MorganCitigroup。利率接下来会增长比较快,银行股表现一定会不错 值得留意。

·        新加坡股市 3300-3350点是买入的机会

今天海指在3380点左右,跌了12点。这一个月海指的表现不怎么好。从3600点的阻力跌倒现在。但是我也曾经有在节目中有提过,海指一旦跌到33003350点就是机会。希望海指能跌多30点。进入了这个区域,3300-3350点,我觉得大家可以开始投资这个指数。大家可以留意STIETF。投资海指ETF的其中好处就是每一年还有4%的股息。
当然另外就是大家也可以留意银行股。利率的上升会为银行股带来更多盈利。
·        
  中国股市能从贸易战爬出来!

我们今年有一直提到,中国上证指数的支持就在3000-3050点。今天上证跌到了3048点,跌进了我们的买入范围。我认为大家又可以捡便宜了。

我认为上证有机会迈向3150点。整体来说,我还是蛮看好中国股市下半年的表现。贸易战会有和平结果因为双方都不想要有贸易战。大家可以多留意中国科技股。
· 
香港股市现在是30530点,今天跌了接近200点。
从技术图表来看,30000点是恒生巨大的支持。我认为恒生从30000点反弹的可能性很大。

Thursday, 21 September 2017

958访谈9月21日:展望2017年股市与经济:美国联储局都不看好美国经济?

·        美国联储局都不看好美国经济?

道琼斯昨晚闭市在22412点,涨了41点。
昨晚最大的新闻就是联储局的会议。联储局的主席耶伦讲了几样事情:
1) 第一:联储局保持利率不变, 但耶伦也表示今年还会加息一次。这其实和原本的预测一样。下一个加息很有可能就在111日。
  我们觉得12月刚好就是庆祝节日的时段,可能联储局会避免加息,以免影响美国人在节日买东西的情绪。
2) 第二:联储局下调了核心通货膨胀的预测,上调了本年度的GDP预测。
  但是我们发现联储局视乎对美国这几年的GDP预测反而每一年是下滑的。
  今年GDP预测增长2.4%,但20182.1%20192.0%20201.8%。这个下滑的预测我认为是联储局不觉得美国的经济这几年会好转到多少。

3) 第三:联储局的利率预测2019年和2020年的没什么改变,就在3%这证明美国政府也认为利率起到3%是美国的极限了。
  再起的话,美国经济可能就会瘫痪了。
  我认为美国银行也预料如果利率起超过3%,很多跟银行借钱的人都会有问题还贷款。现在我们的利率是1.25%。如果美国利率真的起到3%,那可能投资股票就要非常小心了。

·        看好美元走强、欧元走弱
那昨晚当联储局公布还要加息的消息,美元开始走强,昨晚美元期货从91.4跑到了92.40,涨了$1
我认为既然美国真的会在11月或12月加息,很有可能是11月,那美元短期可能会升,鼓励大家10月开始留意美元。毕竟今年美元已经从$103掉到$91,掉了12%
欧元也已经从年头的$1.03涨到现在的$1.20,涨了20%。我认为美元已经到达了相当强的支持,欧元到了相当强的阻力。我的投资建议就是接下来看好美元升,欧元跌。

·        石油、黄金十月要小心
最近石油涨到了$51,可以说趋势相当强。但我们曾经说过我们估计$50-$52是石油的阻力区。一旦到这个阻力区,大家要小心谨慎。石油过后可能会拉回整理。现在石油已经到了这个阻力区,不鼓励大家看石油领域的股票。
投资黄金的朋友10月可能要小心。黄金价格现在非常弱。如果利率上升,黄金可能又会滑落一些。最近黄金一下从$1360跌到$1300,跌了$60,也证明黄金趋势改变。

·        新加坡海指3200点有支持

今天海指跌了接近4点,现在是3214点左右。最近这一个月,海指的走势真的很不好,从3250点跌到了3200点。但我们两周前也提过,我们认为海指在3200点有一个相当强的支持,或许有机会反弹。海指在3200点我认为比较合理了。

美国接下来利率上升可能对本地银行会有正面的影响,可能会带动海峡指数反弹。
从图表来看,海指接下来的阻力就在3280点。支持就在3200点。


·        中国经济复苏好比2013美国

上海上证指数今天是3373点,涨了7点。我们两周前有说过上证指数突破了3300点是非常好的。我们短期看好中国的股市。

最近中国股市这样好的表现是因为银行股的推动。很多的股票盈利报告也反映不错的成绩。这也证明中国的经济开始复苏了。

中国的GDP我估计会比设想的来的高。

这也反映中国这几年的刺激政策开始奏效了。这就好比2013年的美国经济一样,慢慢走强。
我认为上证指数有机会到达下一个阻力点,3450点。

由于中国股票这个季度业绩好的表现,鼓励多留意中国的股市。


·        香港恒生28000点有点贵


28156点,涨了30点。我们还是觉得恒生在28000点有阻力。有机会短期调整。

我们认为投资港股的朋友还是要小心谨慎。

Thursday, 29 June 2017

6月29日 Radio FM 958 投资访谈:总结上半年美国股市冲刺的3大原因 & 新加坡股市下半年可留意的3的领域

·      总结上半年美国股市冲刺的3大原因:

昨晚美国道琼斯指数涨了143点,闭市在21454点。纳斯达克指数也涨了87点。这可以说是美国指数这两个月表现涨最多的一天。这也是纳斯达克指数这8个月表现最好的一天。

原因是因为昨晚科技股和银行股带动了股市。科技股涨了1.32%, 银行股也涨了1.58%

昨天的涨幅也很有可能是因为两天前欧洲出现了网络攻击的事件。许多科技股当时大掉。

刚好今天是6月底,我们今年已经走了一半了。今天我们就回顾一下这半年股市的成绩。

美国股市今年上半年表现可以说非常好。道琼斯从19800点涨到现在的24500点,涨了23%。纳斯达克指数从5400点涨到现在的6400点,涨了18%。这半年的成绩可以说相当惊人!

这样好的原因我认为有3个:

1) 第一是因为特朗普的效应:特朗普的经济改革政策的确对美国股市有着正面的影响。不管是减税政策,或是就业政策,或是医药服务政策,或是基础建设政策,或是能源开发的政策都有利于美国的经济发展。这也驶到美国相关领域的股票有正面的冲击。

但是活说回来,特朗普到底实施了多少他提出的经济改革政策?到现在,大的视乎一个都没有。原因是民主党不断的在反对特朗普的政策。这个来临的下半年将是特朗普领导能力的考验。如果他还是没办法实施任何的经济政策,一切将是空谈,股市可能会有不好的反应。



2) 第二个原因为什么股市表现不错是因为经济数据显示美国经济相当的健康:美国的失业率已经掉到4.3%,这是自从雷曼兄弟倒闭过后的最好成绩。通货膨胀也到达美国政府要的2% 了。美国的房地产价格也已经超越200年的高点,达到了历史新高。这证明美国人又开始相信美国经济了。

3) 第三个原因我认为美国股市有好的成绩是因为全世界没出现什么重大的新闻。中国的经济也不断的复苏。从 今年6.7%GDP的增长率涨到现在的6.9%。估计到年底可能涨到了7%。如果大家还记得,我们去年有提过2016/2017要留意中国经济见底。现在真的发生了。

不只中国,欧洲也没出现什么问题。就连欧洲最害怕的法国大选都没问题。法国主张要脱欧的候选人Marine Le Pen也输了。这也驶到欧洲的信心大增。股市表现也不错。


总的来说这些原因都驶到股市表现不错。但是是否这样好的投资环境能继续,我认为大家也要留意是否政治和经济环境有没有什么改变。

举例:特朗普的政治影响力,德国的大选结果,中国经济数据表现,美国的通货膨胀率,石油的走势都是下半年大家要留意的。


·       新加坡股市下半年可以留意的3个领域


今天海指也涨了接近30点,现在是3246点左右。这个涨幅当然也是因为美国昨天大涨的原因。

今年上半年,新加坡海指的表现相当不错,从年头的2900点涨到现在的3250点,涨了12%。虽然表现没比美国股市好,但是还算不错了。

除了受美国的经济好转的影响,中国经济复苏的影响,本地新加坡政府也似乎开始稍微放松一些对房地产的降温措施驶到本地的股市恢复信心。这几个月,我们都可以感受到房地产有点反弹的迹象。现在就连房地产发展商都开始有了En Bloc的想法。
这些都是好事。希望可以持续。

但是我们也曾经在节目有提过,海指在3250-3300点是今年巨大的阻力区。进入这个区域,大家还是要非常小心。目前海指还没有突破3300点的迹象。

下半年,我对新加坡股市的策略会是注重那些还没有跑的领域股。很多比如房地产股,银行股,Reits等等都已经跑了。

我的策略是留意还没跑的,比如:电讯领域的股票,或农务大宗商品领域,或医药领域的股票。


·        


STI is the Only Flower stuck in a pile of Cow Dung! - The only major index in Asia that is in the Green

Dear Friends, A few days ago, I issued a post on where I think is the accumulation area of STI - 3300-3350. Yesterday it dropped into thi...