Friday, 27 March 2015

"It is a DANGEROUS MARKET Now! Sell and go away is coming in April or May" Daniel Loh interview on radio FM958

Nasdaq is too high and reaching its 15 years resistance! Be careful of tech.

1)      Yesterday Dow dropped 292 points. S&P500 also dropped 31 points. The reason of the drop was because of Durable Goods Report. The forecast was 0.3%. However the actual result was 1.4%. Durable Goods measures the orders of goods for production. It is normally treated as a precursor indicator of the enterprises forecast for the next 3 months. There was profit taking after the report came out.
2)      Temporarily we think that US Fed would probably not increase increase rate, at least until September.
3)      Although recent interest rates increase fear has subsided, we think that there is a likelihood of a correction coming in april or may. Short term traders should be cautious. The old cliché, “Sell in May and Go Away” might come again this year.
4)      3 Reasons why?
a)      Nasdaq is reaching its 15 years all time high resistance, 5132. A few days back, Nasdaq reached 5042. Yesterday it dropped 118. My opinion is that breaking this 15 years resistance is never easy. The more it moves closer, the more careful we should be. Recently Tech stocks have gone up too much and is due for a correction. If Nasdaq drops, the whole US market will do.
b)      US will start to declare their first quarter earnings starting from 8th april. It was forecasted that this first quarter earnings might drop 8% compared to the fourth. This drop is the largest since 2009. As Christmas rally is over, and expectations still high because of the high prices of stocks, there is a good chance of profit taking should any stocks miss. This is also the reason why “Sell in May and go Away” always come after the 1st quarter results.
c)       Apple the largest company in US will start to sell its first i-watch on 24th April. I believe that expectations of I watch sales has been too high, causing this stock to increase 25% in a short span of 2 months. I believe that there might be a chance of profit taking on the launch day. A case of Buy on rumours, Sell on news. If Apple drops, so will Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow as this company is in all 3 indices.
5)      We believe that US, Germany, China, Japan and Singapore indices are already at a high. We encourage short term traders to start to profit take. Do not look at stocks anymore. Wait for a big drop to come and look again in May or June. You may buy at a cheaper price. Please be patient!


Shanghai 3800 is a deadly cliff!

1)      Last year we told all not to invest in china stocks after June or when it reached 3800. We expect a big correction coming. 2 days ago, Shanghai comp reached 3716. It is 84 points away from our 3800 resistance.
2)      Our advice is please don’t touch China market again because the risk is very high now.
3)      If it goes above 3800, the more it goes up, the more it will fall.
4)      Once it touches 3800, the index might go into one year of consolidation.
5)      In the consolidation phase, it is better to focus more on defensive sectors like Healthcare, Telecommunications, Utilities. Please don’t play banks or tech, any sectors that are aggressive.


Singapore is still high at 3420

1)      STI is now 3420. A few days back it was 3360. The reason why STI has run up is because interest rates fear has subsided recently.
2)      However we think that STI is no longer cheap.
3)      With DOW at 18000, Nasdaq at 5000, Shanghai composite at 3700, Dax at 12000, Nikkei at 19700, we don’t it is cheap anymore. The 4 major economies’ indices are all at the peak.
4)      If all consolidate together, I am sure STI will fall too.
5)      We urge patience for these couple of months and wait for a retracement.


Nikkei 20000 is a hugh psychogical barrier

1)      Last year in the programme, we did predict that Nikkei would run to 20000.
2)      At that time, it was 17000. Now we are 19700, just 300 points off.
3)      20000 is a hugh barrier, a mountain to climb.
4)      I don’t think it would break that fast.
5)      Nikkei has run 3000 in just 3 months.

6)      Please profit take now. Take a look again only after it drops.

Daniel Loh 3月26日 FM958 电台访问 : 全球股市相当危险了 !4月5月调整可能性相当大!

道琼斯15年高点阻力不容易破!小心科技股

1)      昨天道指一天掉了292点。S&P500也掉了31点。掉的原因是因为昨天公布的Durable Goods Report耐用品订单的报告不怎么好。预测0.3%,但是真实数据是负1.4%。华尔街关注这个报告因为这个报告衡量接下来3个月企业会生产多少产品。如果订单少就证明企业可能预测购买率会比较差。
2)      我相信美国暂时不会采取加息的政策,因该至少要到九月份之后。
3)      虽然加息的恐慌暂时解除,但是我们预测美国股市可能在四月底或五月有一个调正。短期投资股票的朋友在四五月要小心。Sell in May and Go Away可能今年会又回来
4)      在这里我提三点为什么?
5)      第一: Nasdaq已经接近15年前的历史高点,5132点。前几天,Nasdaq涨到了5042点。昨晚也掉118点。我觉得这个15年的阻力不容易破。越靠近大家要越小心。最近科技板块公司也上了太多,我觉得就快休息了。Nasdaq一掉,全美国的股市也一定掉。
6)      第二:美国将在48日开始进入公布第一季度业绩报告的季节。通常第一季度的报告肯定没有比第4季度的还要好,因为第四季度有包括很多节日。第一季度已经没有圣诞的业绩了,通常业绩会差一点。如果又没有比分析师的预测来的好,可能Sell in May and go Away又回来,股市又会在五月大掉。
7)      第三:苹果公司,美国最有影响力的公司将在424日将推出让大众买I-watch。我觉得期望值已经过高,驶到这个股票在短短两个月涨了25%。这个期望值已经反映在股价了。可能在产品发行的那一天,很多投资家可能会开始套利。苹果股价掉,Nasdaq一定掉,S&P500和道琼斯也会跟着掉。
8)      我觉得美国股市,德国股市,中国股市,日本股市,新加坡股市已经很高了。我鼓励投资短期的朋友开始要套利,暂时不要看股票了。等一个大掉,可能五月六月大家才再捡便宜!玩股票一定要有耐心!

中国上证3800点有地雷!

1)      去年我们提到,中国股市6月份过后就不要再投资了,可能会有一个大调整。我们的目标价是3800点。
2)      两天前中国上证跑到了3716点,离我的目标价只差84点了。
3)      我觉得中国股市千万千万不用再碰了。风险非常大。
4)      如果这几天越过了3800点,可能怎么涨,怎么跌回!
5)      我们的判断是一旦3800点,中国股市可能要进入长达一年的调整期。
6)      在这个调整期,不是不能玩,可以,可是大家多买一些防守股。比如:医药,电讯,Utilities 公用事业的股票。不要再看银行,科技,不要看那些炒作性强的股票了。


新加坡股市还在高处

1)      海峡指数现在是3420点。
2)      海指这个星期从3360点跑了上来。原因是美国股市因为利率的顾虑已经解除,而上了一些。海指也跟着上。
3)      刚才我们有提到,海指已经不便宜了。全世界的股市都已经很贵了。道琼斯18000点,Nasdaq5000点,中国股市3700点,德国股市12000点,日经指数19700点。这个4大经济体的股市都很高。
4)      那如果万一一起调整,我觉得海指肯定也会跟着掉。
5)      投资股票,一定要有耐心,等一个两三个月当股市调整过后再进场。
6)      我认为2015年还是一个大牛市,大家不用害怕,任何下滑都是好机会。


香港市场等23000点

1)      香港股市着8个月一直都在22500 25000点之间行走。现在是24400点。对我来说,香港股市还是在贵的区域。如果要看等到4/5月调正过后,可能可以买到更便宜。如果23000点我可能才会再看这个股市。


日本日经20000点悬崖也难过

1)      年头我上蒂聪的节目有提过,我们2015年的判断日本股市会至少跑到20000点的管卡。当时日经还在17000点。现在离20000点,只差280
2)      我们觉得20000点是日经的心理价位的压力点位。会有一些阻力。
3)      既然短短的3个月已经跑了3000点,我觉得大家要套利,不要在买了。

4)      跌了再看。

Thursday, 26 March 2015

Radio FM958 (Today Thu, 26 Mar 12:15pm) talking about "It is a DANGEROUS MARKET Now! Sell and go away might come in April or May"

Dear Friends,


I will be interviewed on radio station Capital FM958 at Thu, 26 Mar 12:15pm talking about

"It is a DANGEROUS MARKET Now! Sell and go away is coming in April or May"

If you are interested to know more, just tune in to FM958... :)

Radio Station website: Listen Live

http://entertainment.xin.msn.com/zh/radio/capital958/

Need Windows Media Player 11

Thank you
Daniel Loh
www.danielloh.com

Monday, 23 March 2015

FREE Stock Seminar by Daniel Loh (in Singapore)

<< Why you need to be careful End of April or May !!! >>


Recently FED chairwoman Janet Yellen has laid off any fears of the interest rate rise this June. It has caused the DOW/ S&P 500 and Nasdaq to be near their all time high again!

However we seriously think that the recent one week drop is not the real correction yet. That correction may be delayed and come in end of april or may!

We are already at the end of March! It is important for you as an investor to know some dangers that might occur during this period.


Join this seminar with Daniel Loh to find out what are the important events!

You shall learn:
1) Will Sell in May and Go Away come this year?
2) Danger events that might occur in April or May
3) Is the interest rates fear over or delayed??
4) How can you make money consistently in 2015 from the market?


Date:
24 Mar (Tue) English session or
25 Mar (Wed) Chinese session 华文讲座


Time: 7pm -10pm

Venue: 
141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
#07-02 S(069541),
Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light



Speaker: Daniel Loh
Regularly interviewed by Mediacorp FM958
Regular interviewed by Mediacorp Channel 8 Financial Programmes
SIAS investment trainer
Invited speaker for Phillip Securities
Invited speaker for Affin Investment Bank
Invited speaker for OCBC Securities
Invited speaker for Shares Investment
Invited speaker for Shareinvestor


Cost: Free

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Saturday, 21 March 2015

Sharing on Interest Rate and Currency

Dear Friends,

This morning I am interviewed by Mediacorp Channel 8 <<Morning Express 晨光第一线>> to talk about the interest rate and currency. Just a 1.30 min sharing. Ha, they cut so much of my explanation!

For those interested, may see this recording. Start from 15min.


Press the link below



Tuesday, 17 March 2015

China Shanghai Composite continue to hit new bull market high! But be warned of a collapse near June!

Dear Friends,

This is what we called "CAN'T DROP MUCH!" 2 months ago, there were analysts that mention the composite might collapse soon. We said otherwise. We mentioned that this bullish run most likely will continue until June 2015. Only in June, we should be careful!

This prediction was published in our blog on 3rd Dec last year when it was still 2700!
Check out the past article below:
http://www.danielloh.com/2014/12/shanghai-composite-may-run-to-3300-3400.html

Today, Shanghai composite continues to hit new 5 year high to close at 3449. 5 years ago, the highest the composite has reached is 3478.


I have no doubt that in the next few days, it will test this 5 years high. And I really have a good feel that this bullish run might continue to around June period.

After June, you might see a sudden consolidation in the composite. That is the time, fear might seep into the index and it might go into a one year long consolidation phase.

For now, any 150-200 points drop in the index before June is a good pick-up point.



Rgds
Daniel Loh

Monday, 16 March 2015

A MUST Attend !! FREE Seminar by Daniel Loh (in Singapore)

<< With recent interest rates fear, will DOW and STI have a major correction? >>

On 1st March, Daniel Loh published a seminar article titled, 
<< Warning! Do you want to know when DOW might have a correction? What will be the trigger? >> 
http://www.danielloh.com/2015/03/free-first-seminar-by-daniel-loh-after.html


Has Daniel Loh correctly predicted the correction again?

DOW has now fallen 600 points from the peak ever since 1st March.

STI has dropped 100 points from the top.

Do you want to know when US might reach a bottom and what do Daniel Loh think about the recent interest rates fears???


Join this seminar to find out!

You shall learn:
1) Is this a major or minor correction? 
2) The World market and its opportunities!
3) Is Janet Yellen really going to raise interest rates in June as feared??
4) How can you make money consistently in 2015 from the market? 

Date: 
17 Mar   (Tue)  English session or
18 Mar  (Wed)  Chinese session 华文讲座

Time: 7pm -10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light

Speaker: Daniel Loh  
Regularly interviewed by Mediacorp FM958
Regular interviewed by Mediacorp Channel 8 Financial Programmes
SIAS investment trainer
Invited speaker for Phillip Securities
Invited speaker for Affin Investment Bank
Invited speaker for OCBC Securities
Invited speaker for Shares Investment
Invited speaker for Shareinvestor

Cost: Free

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Thursday, 12 March 2015

Daniel Loh 3月12日 FM958 电台访问 : 美国17250点有支持、中国6月买防守领域股

美国市场

1)      这一个星期美国股市的走势确实比较弱。
2)      道琼斯从32日的历史高点18288点跌了下来。现在是17635点,已经跌了650点了。
3)      Nasdaq也从5000点的阻力跌了下来。
4)      这几天的跌幅我认为是因为两点
5)      联储局主席耶伦在二月二十三日的时候宣布联储局不再很有“耐心”的维持低利率。再加上,上个星期五的失业率报告相当的好,数据掉到了5.5%。这驶到很多投资家开始担心利率快要上的可能性很大,赶快先套利。这个奇怪的现象又回来了。经济数据越好,股市可能越不好。这个好的经济数据也驶到一部分的资金流到美元,驶到美元指数从上个月的93冲到现在的100块钱。
6)      我觉得这次下滑不是危机,但是是一个非常好捡便宜的机会。
7)      那作为投资家我们接下来因该怎么办?在这我提供几个投资建议
8)      一:现在毕竟美国股市比较弱,下跌的可能比较大,现在还不是时候进场,大家需要有耐心。
9)      二:我认为道琼斯的支持点就在17250点。我们离这个数字只差400点。如果道指跌了400点,我觉得大家就可以测试水温,开始买一些好的成长股,或者跌得深得银行股,因为STI也有可能反弹。
10)   三:这几年美元会因为美国经济好,其他国家经济差,而继续走强。大家可以投资一些以 美元挂扣的基金或产品。

中国市场

1)      去牛一整年,我说过中国股市一旦越过2500点正式进入一个大牛市。到今年6月中国股市都还很健康。如果有机会掉200-300点,大家可以投资。
2)      确实一个月前,中国股市掉到了3050点掉了350点。但是现在又回到了3300点。
3)      我有提过现在中国股市在牛市的第一阶段,股市不会掉太多,也很难掉。大家不用害怕。这个阶段会为此一年。
4)      但是这一却可能在今年6月就改变了。当中国股市进入牛市第二个阶段,股市就很难玩。有时上有时下,不会像现在一样好玩。大家如果投资中国股,6月国后要很小心。
5)      我给投资中国股票的朋友几个建议
6)      一:6月后千万不要再投资银行股了,银行股不会怎么走了
7)      二:大家一定要趁中国股市掉7-10%的时候才进场。
8)      三:投资多一点防守领域的股票比如:医药,电讯,Utilities 公用事业的股票。

新加坡市场

1)      海峡指数现在是3370点。
2)      这几天新加坡受美国股市的影响,从3460点的高点也跌了下来。
3)      今年年头我在节目中有说过今年前半年我判断STI会在3200-3450点走动。今年后半年STI成绩比较好,可能会在3300-3600点走动。
4)      在这里给大家两个建议
5)      一:我们有耐心等待道琼斯跌倒17250点再进场买一些业绩不错的成长。现在还差400点。

6)      二:大家今年6月过后才开始看能源领域的股票。现在美元的强势对石油和能源领域股还是有压力。但是当6月过后美元开始稳定一些,我相信能源股是有机会。

Wednesday, 11 March 2015

Radio FM958 (Thu, 12 Mar 12:15pm) talking about "Is Stock Market in a CRISIS now?"

Dear Friends,


I will be interviewed on radio station Capital FM958 at Thu, 12 Mar 12:15pm talking about 

"Is Stock Market in a CRISIS now?"

If you are interested to know more, just tune in to FM958... :)

Radio Station website: Listen Live 

http://entertainment.xin.msn.com/zh/radio/capital958/ 

Need Windows Media Player 11

Thank you
Daniel Loh

Singapore Stocks Seminar by Andy Yew

<< Singapore Stocks Market Analysis >>
《新加坡股票市场分析》

sharing by Andy Yew

Dates: (Pls Select one)

12 Mar 2015,  Thu (English Seminar) 7pm - 10pm
13 Mar 2015,  Fri (华文讲座)               7pm - 10pm

19 Mar 2015,  Thu (English Seminar) 7pm - 10pm
20 Mar 2015,  Fri (华文讲座)               7pm - 10pm


Sharing on
1) Spore Stocks that are trending upwards that you should take note of
2)
 Spore Stocks that are suitable for short term trading
3) Spore Stocks that are showing reversal signals
4) Spore Stocks that are suitable for long term
Plus we will be providing analysis on your stocks!

Venue: 141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building #07-02 S(069541) Tanjong Pagar MRT Exit G, walk straight 80m, opposite the traffic light

Speaker: Andy Yew (ART system Founder) 


To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623 

Wednesday, 4 March 2015

Follow up on Chip Eng Seng

Dear Friends,

We did said that we spotted players momentum in Chip Eng Seng. The last time when we commented it is at $0.91. We said that "short term resistance is at $0.97-$1.00, but i am willing to hold through it"

Last article titled: "Singapore Stock Tip: Chip Eng Seng showing accumulation"
http://www.danielloh.com/2015/01/singapore-stock-tip-chip-eng-seng.html

Indeed, recently this stock retraced from my resistance area. In fact it touched recent high of $0.99 before retracing a bit to $0.96 now. We are right.


However like what I mentioned in our last post, we are willing to hold through this retracement, if there is.

This is a strong fundamental stock. Both from the fundamental and technical perspective, our target of $1.10 is still unwavered.

Rgds
Daniel

Composite today drop off from 5000 psychological resistance but don't worry!

Dear Friends,

It is little surprise to me that nasdaq composite is heading for its all time high price of 5132 reached 15 years back in March 2000.

Price chart of nasdaq for 15 years

Of course with the breaking of the 5000 mark yesterday, traders have been a bit worried about this high price.

Price chart of nasdaq this 1 year with high price of 5008 reached yesterday

My opinion is in the short term, a correction is still not happening yet. Most probably it will happen in April or May.

Do not worry about todays 40 points drop in Nasdaq. I anticipate it to rebound back soon.

Not to forget the Apple i-watch launch soon in April. I have no qualm and doubt that this run will still continue till the launch.

Rgds
Daniel