Friday, 28 December 2012

Strategy for next week after New Year!

Dear Friends,

I am watching how the fiscal cliff unfold itself going into last day of the year. But as a trader, I also have a plan in mind going into next week.

There will be 2 scenarios now.

1) The stock market might tumble if there is no fiscal cliff policy, whether partial or full policy. If the stock market falls, I would take any downturn as my chance to buy stocks that are cheap, but are good fundamentally, and that shows resilience amid the drop. As long as I go in before next Friday evening's US jobs reports is fine, as I anticipate Jobs Reports next week to be better than expectations based on our research. Friday's Non farm payroll and Wednesday ADP employment report should show a better than expectations report.

2) If stock does not fall down the cliff on Tuesday, but rises in the event of any surge in confidence over the fiscal cliff policy, I would take the opportunity to go in on Wed American market or Singapore market.

Even if stock market tumbles big over the fiscal cliff incident, this is just one chance for me too good to be missed. The more the market falls over the cliff, the better it is as I anticipate economical reports to be good and stocks' earnings reports to be excellent in january! I am aiming for a big HONGBAO from the stock market in february!

Gong Xi Fa Cai!
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Singapore Banks have not broken their resistances

Dear Friends,

Do you remembered our last article on 11 Dec: All 3 singapore banks hit a major roadblock?
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/12/singapore-stock-tip-all-3-singapore.html

We mentioned that UOB resistance is $20, OCBC is $9.80 or $10(major resistance), DBS is $15. You can see that it continues to be a strong resistance!

At that time, we encouraged you to use the banks as a hedging tool against your bullish positions going into the year end meaning short them. Till now, the 3 major banks have yet to break out of their major resistances.

You probably can see them struggling. Today, UOB even cause a panic when at 12pm, it drop to $19.18 from $19.70 in a few minutes. I think this is caused by high frequency trading. But later on, it came back in the next few minutes.


Conspiracy theory tells me a group of traders purposely attack this stock given the big surge in volume. Stop losses are taken out before market makers took over to push back the price.

Here I would like to remind you that such attacks normally occur during lunch breaks just like the flash crash attack that happened to Dow Jones a couple of years back where in 20 minutes DOW drop by 1000 points. It happened on lunch time also.

Consider shorting the banks still to hedge your longing positions...

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com


Blumont hits our profit target, Ezion hits our first target, Zhulian (malaysia) about to hit

Dear Friends,

We are so so lucky and grateful for this wonderful Santa Claus Rally. A week back, we assured everybody do not sell into a panic when Dow drops by 200 points. We even mentioned it in FM958 when we were interviewed last week, to accumulate on the drop.

Btw, this is a recap of the stocks that we published recently:

1) Blumont - We mentioned our target is $0.27 - $0.3. It was at $0.215 (18th Dec) when we publish.
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/12/singapore-stock-tip-tasty-speculative.html

Yesterday it reached $0.27 exactly before retracement. Jialat!***  I think market makers studied our blog. (Haha)

What is it now? $0.27-$0.3 i called it the watchful zone. Normally when price reach our watchful zone without showing strong signs, I would liquidate first and enter if i see strength again. Now for this stock, my strategy is to exit half since it reach our target and can't go past $0.27. But having said that, professional money has not left, i leave another half to run. Btw, upon breaking $0.30 i will see agian.
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2) Ezion - On 18th Dec, we mentioned we have 2 targets for Ezion
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/12/singapore-stock-tip-ezion-gaps-up-where.html
We mentioned our exit profit target 1 is  $1.59-$1.60,  profit target 2 is $1.67-$1.70 (a must sell if hit!!!)

Yesterday our first profit target of $1.59 (highest point yesterday) is exactly hit before retracing a bit.

What is it now? For Ezion, I am a bit GREEDY as I see potential of it breaking $1.60. For this case I am aiming for my second target of $1.67-$1.7 where I would exit 100%. But now, Ezion I would move stop loss to $1.56 just in case market turns down. Professional money still inside stock.

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3) Zhulian (malaysia  counter) - We mention to enter 2 days ago when it is $2.72. We said that $2.70 is a support and we aim for $2.80 first target and second target at $2.95.
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/12/malaysia-stock-tip-zhulian-indeed-looks.html

To our disbelief, these 2 days it ran to $2.91 highest, near to a 20cents run in 2 days. Oh mind, that can only happen in malaysia! Malaysia Boleh

What is it now? First we put our stop loss at $2.80 to guard our profits just in case! Next I will watch closely what happens at $2.95.

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4) Utd Envirotech - We mention that there is accumulation when we spotted it at $0.44 on 21st Dec.
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/12/singapore-stock-tip-who-is-buying-this.html

It almost hit our first target of $0.5. Now is $0.485.

What is it now?
We said our mid term target is $0.60 if we see that the players did not distribute the stock at $0.50.So we shall monitor closely at $0.50.

But now, we put stop loss at breakeven and let it run.... for this stock, I think the players might be in for a longer duration, so I shall hold with them till they run!

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5) Yoma - One word, WAIT!

By the way, don't tell anybody about this stock, the less people know, the better. Bcos the big players might be watching our facebook group or forum or media articles... I know that a lot of training schools are recommending this stock. So I think that is the major reason this stock has consolidated more days than the others. They are trying to wear down our patience!

Btw, this is one major concern we have when it comes to issuing tips on stocks.

My mentor, Mr Hu Li Yang (Asian Leading Investment Guru) once said, "The more a public figure you are, the more you should not talk about stocks. Bcos the big players are watching, they will one day make use of what you said to play against bcos of your influence."

Shhhh...... Just take note that accumulation has been ongoing and they have not left the stock....

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Do take note that investing is FUN if you know the way!!! Do come to our preview sessions to learn how to pick the right stocks!

Hope you make $ these few days and enjoy the holidays!!!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Wednesday, 26 December 2012

Malaysia Stock Tip: Zhulian indeed looks good at support 2.70

Dear Friends,

Seems like Zhulian is in accumulating now. My favorite stocks are trending up stocks like this. From a technical perspective, it seeems to be resting in a base at $2.70. Price today is $2.72. Likely to go up still in the short to mid term. If it goes up, first small target is $2.80, if it breaks, my second target is $2.95.

Btw, we are still bullish about KLCI before election day (probably in May?) like what we have said in our past article. The recent correction of 5% from its height is what we think a bottom.
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/12/klciby-daniel-loh-for-busy-weekly.html


Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Santa Claus Rally has begun! 7 trading days to take note of to predict year 2013

Dear Friends,

A cliche in Wallstreet you may have heard of is what we called the year end Santa Claus Rally. Statistics have shown that santa claus rally start on the last 5 trading days of the year and ends after the first 2 trading days in January. It has been an average of 1.6% gain since 1969.

Stats have also shown that if Santa Claus Rally does not happen, chances are high that next year might be a bear market or a bad year. Examples of down santa days are year 2007 (start of sub-prime), year 2004 (Middle East Terror), year 2002 (Nasdaq collapse).

If indeed S&P500 did rally in the last 7 days, chances are high that 2013 might be a good bullish year. So let us keep a close lookout on the S&P500.

For Singapore market, the STI has shown its resilience again after being down for a couple of days. But we have to remind you that STI might face a resistance between 3210-3240 region. Let us see how it performs once reached.

By the way, stats also shows that Nasdaq is up 11 of last 12 times on the last day of december. Good to enter some nasdaq related stocks on the 2nd last 2 days.

Happy Holidays
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Monday, 24 December 2012

Free CFD Seminar (Chinese 华语)

We wish to invite you to our upcoming Chinese (华语) seminar on CFD (差价合约).



In May we successfully forecasted the bearish market for the entire month, and on June 15 we accurately captured the turning point in the market where most stocks start to turn from bearish to bullish. When will be the next turning point? Will you be catching the right wave this time? Come listen to what we have to say in our upcoming seminar, where we are ready to share with you more about CFD and our Market outlook.
We will cover:
  • CFDTrader 2 Demo
  • What Tools do the Pros use and most Retail investors don’t.
  • The Deadly pitfalls you should avoid when trading CFD
  • Which is the best performing sector right now?
  • Market outlook using Technical Analysis 
  • Identify the strongest and weakest stocks in the market right now.
Date: 26 Dec 2012, Wednesday (星期)7pm - 10pm   (In Chinese 华文)

Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light

Speaker: Andy Yew (ARTeam)

Fee: Free Admission

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

HOLIDAY GREETINGS


Dear Friends,
It has been a blessing year for us with you around. Thank you for your support! From the family of Raffles Business International, we wish you a wonderful Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! Next year we Huat (Prosper) again!!!

Best Regards from Raffles Business International and Daniel Loh

Sunday, 23 December 2012

The Most Innocent company in America - Poor poor Herbalife!

Dear Friends,

In Singapore, we have Olam. In America, we have Herbalife (HLF). The thing is herbalife suffered the same fate twice! Another $20 drop in one week! It happened to them in April and last week. Blame the shorting hedge fund managers!

This year 2 well known hedge fund managers both questioned herbalife business model. Greenhorn and Ackman. It is amazing that Ackman calls the company "pyramid". Sigh, i thought MLM has been around for ages, and it is not like herbalife is a new MLM company. They also did not change much of their business plan. Ackman actually bought huge amount of put options a few days before! This is all planned in advance.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/herbalife-slides-as-ackman-presents-short-thesis-2012-12-20


Updated:

Some of our friends asked about whether can invest in this company. My suggestion is to wait for the short to subside and wait for its next earnings to prove itself. Short term it is never good to go against the hedge funds who are shorting the stocks.

My opinion is next time you see a hedge fund manager like Ackman or Greenhorn talking badly about a company, just short with them! In America, they have hedge fund conferences whereby these sharks will make their presentations. And these 2 guys are famous to make a lot of pages of info why they short the companies! Just short with them wont be wrong.

Friday, 21 December 2012

Singapore Stock Tip: Who is buying this stock - United Envirotech?

Dear Friends,

It is clear that there is someone gulping up this stock shares recently, a clear sign of accumulation for a penny stock. If nothing happens, it should go up until that "someone" distributes his shares.

Let us see if he distributes them at $0.50. If he didn't, my mid term target after it breaks $0.50 is $0.60 for first target profit and $0.67 for second target..

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Listen hard to what your stock is saying amid the drop in US

Dear Friends,

We all know that by the mid noon today, Dow futures has dropped 190 points. STI drop by 7 points, KLCI by 7 points, Shanghai by 11 points and Hang Seng by 174 points.

Some of us lament at a drop but we encourage you to like down days too.

Because down days are always a  FANTASTIC chance to know which stocks are resistant to the drop. It is a fabulous chance to know whether professional money are leaving the stock. It is the best chance to know whether your stock has room to go higher. It is the only chance to catch a stock that you may have seen galloping off recently.

It is normal that the rain appears before the rainbow. In stock market, volatility always appears before the D-Day. Just make sure the volatility does not scare you off in panic, because you are just 5 minutes away from the rainbow at the end.

Let the US congress worry about the fiscal cliff, let them worry about it over their christmas turkey dinner.

In the meantime, let us enjoy our christmas and holiday season!

Poor poor politicians....

Ha
Wish you a Merry Christmas!
Daniel

Thursday, 20 December 2012

Singapore Stock Tip: Yoma drop today is still healthy

Dear Friends,

Looking at Yoma's drop today, it does still look a healthy accumulation stage. The general market is taking a rest today although STI goes up 10 points. Some index stocks are contributing to the run-up.

OSIM drop today is unhealthy. Gap up today to 1.8 plus and drop till 1.75 now with a huge volume. 1.8 remains a resistance for this stock.

In summary, Yoma is still healthy. Let us see how many days it consolidate before the next run....

Do remember we are not contra trading. You probably need to hold on to the stock.

Rgds
Daniel

Market Sentiment Indicator for 18 Dec

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 66.05% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 18 Dec)

2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 52.59% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 9 Nov)

3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 70.20% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 11 Dec) 


4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 61.37%   (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 23 Oct)

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 72.84% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 14 Nov)

6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 65.82% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 5 Dec)

 

7) Health Care Sentiment indicator: 67.30% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 11 Dec)

 
The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector


A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

胡立阳:A股出现趋势翻多讯号 Hu Li Yang: Shanghai A shares trend change signals

2012年12月16日 (Source from qq)

美林证券第一位华人副总裁胡立阳(微博)近日在腾讯微博表示,A股出现趋势翻多讯号!在长期观察全球12个主要新兴股市过去20年来大起大落的走势中,我发现到行情翻 多常会依序出现五项初期讯号,而A股走势目前正完全吻合: 1. 对利空逐渐无感,对利好反应热烈。 2. 股市连续两周,无论是上涨天数、点数与成交量都开始出现一股作气的强涨气势。 3. 指数的“10日移动平均线”翻上。 4. 周线出现连两红,“10周移动平均线”翻上。 5. 指数“3月移动平均线”开始翻红。
------------------------------------------------
Summary in English 
Merill Lynch first Chinese VP Hu Li Yang in tencent blog says that there are many signals showing that A shares may have changed.After observing from 12 major emerging markets for the last 20 years, I have found out that when market trend up, they will have 5 signals. And recently A shares have all of them:

1) Being not sensitive to bad news, Being sensitive to good news
2) In the past 2 weeks, no matter is it points, number of days or volume all shows strength
3) 10day MA has turned up
4) Weekly candle has 2 up weeks
5) 3 month MA has turned up

曾渊沧专栏2012 12 20: 揸思捷因股价够残

在09年初,我向大家推介两只蓝筹股票,一只是富士康(2038),另一只是中信泰富(267),那时,我推介这两股只凭一个信念,那就是在金融海啸之后,当整体股市复苏,在金融海啸时跌得最惨的蓝筹股,其反弹力度应该比较大。

富士康与中信泰富就是08年恒指成份股中,跌幅最大的两只股票,你若问我当时有没有翻阅这两家企业的营业、财务资料?我的答案是没有。我与大家一样,只是一个小小的投资者,作为一名散户,如果要花很多时间去翻阅资料,只会得不偿失,到09年结束,富士康与中信泰富,竟然是恒指成份股中表现最好的两只股票,我第一次尝到,博跌得最惨的蓝筹股而成功的甜头。 

推荐博客:投资锦囊

欧洲经济差盈警不意外2011年,股市又出现了另一次的灾难,那是欧债危机,我期望2012年大市会反弹,于是选用2009年初的方法,向大家推荐2011年跌得最惨的两只恒指成份股,那是思捷(330)与新世界发展(017)。

今年,新世界股价表现还算是令人满意,思捷上半年表现还可以,下半年就再度往下跌,更搞个大供股,回想供股价也的确很低,就决定参与供股,供股前是不是已经研究过这家企业的前途?没有的,供股的唯一原因是股价的确跌得太残。

因 此,前日思捷发盈警,记者问我如何应对,应该说我对思捷发盈警一点也不感到意外,欧洲是思捷的大本营,目前欧洲经济差透了,欧债危机逼欧洲各国政府不得不 削福利,思捷不可能不受影响,如果思捷盈利很不错,去年股价也不会如此跌法,持有思捷并参与供股的最大动力是,思捷曾经是一只百元股,我没有期望思捷可以 恢复百元股价,不过,无论如何,对蓝筹股而言,股价如此跌法是太残了。

Wednesday, 19 December 2012

2013 年市场分析 投资讲座 12月20日 7-10pm

Do Join our FREE Seminar on Thu(华语) to learn how to capture the opportunities leading to Christmas!!!

<<MARKET OUTLOOK for 2013 with Daniel Loh>> 
《2013年市场分析》


You shall learn:
- Will there be a bear market coming next year?

- What are the sectors in trend and having seasonal effects?
- What are the best months to buy stocks and why?
- How do you know when a consolidation is ending and when to enter?
- Will there be a China turnaround story happening?
- Making money from commodities or property? 

Date: 20 Dec 2012, Thu  星期四 7pm - 10pm   (Chinese 华文)
Speaker: Daniel Loh

Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Radio FM958 (Wed,19 Dec 12.20pm - 1pm) talking about Technical Analaysis on World Market

Dear Friends,

I will be interviewed on radio station Capital FM958 today, Wednesday from 12.20pm - 1pm with DJ  Di Cong talking about the <Technical Analaysis on World Market>

If you are interested to know more, just tune in to FM958... :)

Radio Station website: Listen Live
http://entertainment.xin.msn.com/zh/radio/capital958/

Need Windows Media Player 11

Thank you
Daniel Loh

Anybody still questioning about the bullishness of the market?

Dear Friends,

With Dow Jones increases 116 points now, more than triple digits 2 times in a row, who still thinks that we aren't in a bull run?

Like what we did mention 2 days ago, we assured that this bullish run engine has just got started. We should take the opportunity during last few days drop to accumulate at any time instead of selling away into panic that market might consolidate.

For last article and chart of the Dow:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/12/dow-did-meet-short-term-resistance-at.html

By studying the intraday directional movement of the index and the how many points Dow closes everyday and how the index reacts to the bad news and good news will give you the real indication of how bullish a market is. Combining with the confidence from Wallstreet over the fiscal cliff issue, let us ride this bullish run till it is gone.

To me, market can't drop much now. This is the best time to get in the bandwagon! Christmas carol is in its best tune! Let us rejoice and celebrate now till santa comes to town!!!

In the next article, we shall discuss about the famous january effect and the famous first 5 days of the year indicator which is supposed to give us the direction of the year!

Regards
Daniel

Tuesday, 18 December 2012

Singapore Stock Tip: A tasty speculative play on Blumont??

Dear Friends,

This is really a penny stock play. BLUMONT.  It sure looks tasty to me at $0.20, a strong support may have shown.

Accumulation may have started yesterday. Let us see....

Now $0.215. A good risk reward play, stop loss at $0.18, profit target at $0.27 - $0.30.

Since it is so penny, strong stop loss is needed just below support.

Regards
Daniel


Singapore Stock Tip: Ezion gaps up, where is my target?

Bingo!

Hit a jackpot again! Ezion after trading halt gaps up 4-5 cents now.

Our last article:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/12/singapore-stock-tip-ezion-and-yanlord.html

Now some of you may ask, what to do?

If you have gone in like what we mentioned last thursday, you may have earned around 10 cents now.

Now use money management to guard your exit.

1) Put your stop loss at $1.50, to protect your profits

2) My exit profit target 1 is  $1.59-$1.60,  profit target 2 is $1.67-$1.70 (a must sell if hit!!!)

Regards
Daniel


Singapore Stock Tip: Who says YOMA is dead?!

Dear Friends,

Today Yoma shows the run is still on! I have received questions on this stock. I think the run has not ended with yesterday drop. Professional money is still inside the stock! And if it touch $0.74 this time, it should break but next resting place is between $0.77-$0.80.

Price is $0.71 now.

Regards
Daniel

Monday, 17 December 2012

Singapore Stock Tip: SuperGroup on the run now, Go Ezion and Ezra!

Dear Friends,

Supergroup $3 support seems strong and probably will continue to carry forward now. Price is $3.14 now. But bear in mind,  $3.3 is still a resistance. Do take note of tricky prices at $3.20 and $3.25 also. If all goes past, $3.47 is my target.

A good potential now :)

Today Ezion and Ezra continue to run up as mentioned last Friday.
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/12/singapore-stock-tip-did-you-pick-up.html

Regards
Daniel

Friday, 14 December 2012

Singapore Stock Tip: Did you pick up Yanlord like what we mentioned yesterday?

Dear Friends,

Yesterday we advised on Both Ezion and Yanlord. Today Yanlord continue its momentum to burst thru the $1.50 resistance with a 7cts move... cool???

http://www.danielloh.com/2012/12/singapore-stock-tip-ezion-and-yanlord.html

Have you made some $? Now hopefully Ezion follows the same path.

My Ezra also running ;) ....Ezra I am targetting $1.17-$1.20, whereby it will need a rest.

Regards
Daniel

DOW did meet a short term resistance at 13300, but we don't think this run has ended!

Dear Friends,

Now Dow has fallen by near to 60 points in mid day. Some of you might think this is the end of the bullish run. Mid term wise, we think this bullish run has just warmed up its engine only, possibly will march higher into january earnings. But as there have been so many consecutive up days, a small rest is always needed. This is where experienced players differentiate from the amateurs. Spotting market confidence will tell you to enter at the consolidation or run away with fear!



Look closely at how the market react to news and whether there is a sudden panic will tell you whether Dow might have a small 100-250 points small consolidation or a big 700-1000 points drop.

Look at whether Dow has a 100 points drop will indicate how bearish the market is.

Look at how Dow opens and closes at the end of day will tell you how powerful the bears are.

Look at how the media paints the bearish news and how the market reacts to the news will tell you about the market confidence.

The most important point is........

Look at www.danielloh.com blog every single day to give you a gauge on how to make $!  ;)

(Btw, I have received positive compliments that it is a JOY just to read my blog as an entertainment. I am glad about that as I don't like to bombard you with charts. There are too many experts out there! I hope our blog becomes an entertainment and recreation and an educational book. TRADING should be FUN!  Do recommend your friends to visit us!)

Just a note, do not be scared by news as news and reaction give us a glimpse to the market sentiment. Learn to embrace down days just like up days as they will tell you whether this run is real or not!

Regards
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

KLCI大选前还有机会创新高吗?By Daniel Loh for Busy Weekly, Malaysia



最近马来西亚综合指KLCI连续下滑了接近一个月,相信很多朋友都被这一个月的下滑给吓坏了。KLCI1029日的高点1679点下滑到1128日的低点1590,接近5.3% 的跌幅。
在这里,我们呼吁大家乘这一次下滑的机会进场投资一些业绩报告比预期还好的股票。我们相信1590点很有可能是大选之前的底部了。我们接下来两三个月是比较看好马来西亚的股市。

今天我们想给大家几个原因让大家参考为什么:

1)大选前下滑5%都是买入好机会

以下是KLCI的图表。您可以发现这一年来每当指数下滑接近5%时,都是买进的好机会。去年十一月份KLCI下滑了4.62%。今年四月份KLCI下滑了5.15%。最近一个月KLCI下滑了5.30%就反弹了。买股票我们都知道要买低卖高。但往往当股票跌得深时,股友都不敢进场捡便宜。因为大家可能没有一个概念几时股市会到底部。今天我们就透露我们的发现。马来西亚因为有大选,跟其他市场稍微有些不一样,所以我分成大选前和大选后的股市。大选前,如果KLCI下滑5%,我们鼓励大家进场开始投资一些股票,慢慢逐渐增加数额

但要提醒大家明年就不一样了。如果明年大选后,只有当KLCI 下滑了10-15%,我们才叫做合理买入的机会。请大家要记得,股市往往跌得深时就会反弹。股市是不会一直跌的,特别是当我们还处于牛市中。我们也相信明年的股市不会进入雄势。在牛市中,正常的股市很少会从高点跌超过15%的。只要一到,大家就可以开始逐渐进场。





2)大选前的股市都不错

任何国家的股市都有同样的现象。只要在大选前的两到三个月股市都会不错。美国是这样,新加坡也是如此。美国11月的大选前5个月都是上涨的。马来西亚快要大选了,而我们也知道可能就在这两到三个月内会有,所以我们相信这个大选的期望会让股市有机会再创历史新高。

3)美国的财政悬崖问题因该能顺利解决

在一个月前,我们写了一则关于财政悬崖的文章《财政悬崖是祸还是福》。在文章中,我们呼吁大家要乘机会进场买股票因为我们有信心美国会在年底解决这个问题。因为这个政策牵涉美国明年的经济。如果不妥善处理,美国也可能明年会进入经济萧条状况。因此我们相信民主党和共和党会达成协议。从美国的道琼斯指数来看,自从道指在1116日到达了12471点就回弹了。在这一个月内道指已经上升了接近800点。市场的热烈反应也表示他们对财政悬崖的问题表示乐观。当美国股市好,马来西亚股市也不会例外。


我们鼓励大家在马来西亚大选前,开始看一下股市。这一次的下滑是再好不过的机会让股市休息一下再冲刺。但是请大家也要选对好的股票进场。好的股票是指这个季度的业绩比分析师预测的还要好。这些股票这个季度是您应该留意的。
 

Thursday, 13 December 2012

Our market sentiment indicator on Tech Sector and S&P500 index has turned bullish on 5 Dec 2012

Dear Friends,

I was late to check on our market sentiment indicator recently because I was on holidays last week. But today when I checked, our indicator told us that both tech sector and S&P500 stocks have already turned bullish. Tech sector has turned bullish on 5th Dec while S&P 500 index on 11th Dec.

This is great news for the stock market. Mid term wise, be wary of shorting the stocks now. Do remember that tech sector is the first sector that bring US market to its knees in October. Good that now it has turned bullish. In one of the articles that we wrote last month, we mentioned that tech sector is the sector to watch out going into January.

It seems to follow according to our plan. Normally when one sector starts to change trend, other sectors like oil and gas, or financial sector, or healthcare will follow. Then the whole NYSE or Nasdaq stock exchange will follow.

Hence mid term wise, do take note that we are turning bullish and I predict that this bullishness has a chance to continue into next earnings season in January.

Do take note that our market sentiment indicator has been spot on this year. Hence any shorting position should be treated with caution now.

Regards
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Market Sentiment Indicator for 13 Dec

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 63.44% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 9 Nov)

2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 51.08% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 9 Nov)

3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 66.20% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 11 Dec) 
4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 54.55%   (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 23 Oct)

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 69.14% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 14 Nov)

6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 60.76% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 5 Dec)

 

7) Health Care Sentiment indicator: 63.46% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 11 Dec)
 
The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector


A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

Question by a friend on OLAM

Question by a friend:

Dear Daniel, your site is very insightful and I enjoy reading it. Can you please comment on olam because a lot of shareholders would like to know if they should dump their olam shares. Many thank.

Answer by Daniel:

Thank you! Olam is really a difficult subject as this stock involves a lot of uncertainties. Short term wise, I have not seen players coming in to accumulate the stock. Do remember that short term players like us don't like uncertainties. Even if this stock break the $1.70 barrier, I would not want it in my portfolio.

Long term wise, I think Olam might be cautious about their next earnings report now. Although they are one of the fastest growing company in singapore with a high growth rate, they may tone down in their coming earnings results which might inevitably lower their earnings. This is something that investors need to take into consideration whether to hold a not. There are better companies out there with good earnings and trending up for you to switch to.

For me, I will switch my portfolio for others. If Olam revives again and you want to gamble, then come back at a later stage.

Regards
Daniel

Singapore Stock Tip: Ezion and Yanlord on the move

Dear Friends,

2 stocks you can take a look now as they are quite strong today after a bit of consolidation. Both have resistances at $1.50. But if momentum is strong, they might break the barrier. Ezion still got a distance of 5 cents away. This is my preferred choice...

Regards
Daniel

Singapore Stock Tip: OSIM likely to continue its flight, Tat Hong a pick at consolidation stage, Yoma in safe consolidation

Dear Friends,

1) We did mentioned about OSIM. We did exit recently when it hit $1.80, a resistance after profiting from a 10 cents play up. But these 2 days, I notice that it is likely to trend higher.

So we might likely take up a second position. Our next profit target at $1.90. 2nd profit target I aiming is $1.97. Stop loss now is at $1.77.

2) Tat Hong is also consolidating. We believe it can challenge $1.40 soon. If break, $1.47 is a must run price.

3) For Yoma, you can see this stock is consolidating between 69 cents and 74 cents. Has a chance to go higher. If you have this position, continue to hold. Stop loss at 67 cents. If you have not entered, wait for it to show momentum.

Regards
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

US Stock Tip: Bank of America and Facebook marching forward

Dear Friends,

Have you made money like what our graduates did??? Do you still remember some US stocks I recommend recently? Bank of America and Facebook?

I did mention that Bank of America is a stock for retirement purpose, which can grow multiple fold. Either get in when it retrace to $9 or on a breakout off $10. It did give us both recently. For long term play just don't care and get in. We anticipate it to reach $20 till bear market comes.

Article:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/11/us-stock-tip-stock-for-retirement-bank_6.html


For Facebook in October, we did ask all to take a look. It gapped up because of earnings. We ask all to pay attention to this turnaround and play on the breakout off the gap up high. See where the stock is now?  We believe this stock has potential to become big, but it just need more sources of revenue. In the meantime, this is a shot term play.

 http://www.danielloh.com/2012/10/will-facebook-be-this-quarter.html


US market is fun if you know how it works... so many stocks to play and choose from. Come for our FREE seminar listed in the blog on US stock market to learn about the <<Secrets of the US market>> now!

Wednesday, 12 December 2012

Market back on top gear after a fight! Are you in?

Dear Friends,

Glad to be back form my holidays! During my seven days off, the Dow has climbed 6 out of 6 sessions. Let me do a bit of recap...

Do you remember that 3 weeks back, a lot of the folks are still worried of the fiscal cliff incident? People are still worried that the economy next year is falling down the cliff, and even some in Wallstreet are very sure that the republicans and democrats can't solve it in time.

Looking back, don't you think that this is a great opportunity missed? While people are lamenting and doubtful about the market, we have made quite some money from the market.

Lesson learnt here is not to trust the media. Learn how to study the market sentiment and confidence.

A recap of this month's written articles to show there is faith in this market...

1) <<Who says we are falling over the cliff? Not Americans - 26th november>>
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/11/who-says-we-are-falling-over-cliff-not.html

On 26th november, we mentioned that the retail spending is up with the best post thanksgiving shopping - Black Friday ever. It indicates bullish sentiment among americans. Do they care what cliff or mountain there is? And I believe that next earnings season in january will be a blockbuster, and I continue to believe so. Watch out for tech and internet sector! Watch out for Apple earnings this time! A potential to FLY!

2) <<Dow waiting to beak 13000 with gangnam style - 28th november>>
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/11/dow-waiting-to-break-13000-with-gangnam.html

On 28th november, we did say that dow is waiting to break 13000 in gangnam style, meaning dancing around before breaking the resistance and also the 200day MA mark. We assured that just by studying the daily movement in the index, you will know whether market is positive and optimistic or not. How it close is one way of knowing it!

A look at the Gangnam style dance again off DOW 13000 and 200day MA!


3) <<Controversy is what makes the market - 30th november>>
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/11/controversy-is-what-makes-market-will.html

On the 30th november, we wrote an article about the fiscal cliff controversy, reminding all not to guess too much into whether there be a cliff or not. Just focus on the expectation of Wallstreet and your strategy. Controversy always happen in the market. It is how we study the market confidence and sentiment that matters. Don't be a politician or media! Be a trader!

Having said that, I would like to share something that perhaps nobody has yet to comment. Do not think that if the fiscal cliff policy is out, stock market will continue to burst forward! Don't fall into the media hands again! 

If this stock market continues to burst forward, when expectation has already been factored into the market, whether got policy or not, it is bound to consolidate. Do not be a FOOL to rush into the market then just like the QE3! Buy on expectation and sell on news should be our game!

You are just playing into the hands of the pros who are always one step ahead of you if you are slow in the game. If you would like to make some money. start now.

P.S. Do take note that STI will have a big resistance at 3200 - 3240. It won't past that easily.

Regards
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Tuesday, 11 December 2012

Singapore Stock Tip: All 3 singapore banks hit a major roadblock

Dear Friends,

I am still holidaying in Hong Kong and Macau, but can't help to take a look at the market every night. I am now currently looking at stocks to short to hedge my long position going ahead. We think a lot of us have earned quite a bit from this run ever since the drop a few weeks ago when we advised all to accumulate some strong earnings stocks. Now I am looking to unwind some position and do some hedging.

If you are also considering a short for hedging against your long position, there is a sector that I would recommend to see.

UOB: Today it hit a high of 19.92, near to the major big resistance of $20 which I think will be having some difficulty going past unless Fiscal Cliff is over.

OCBC: OCBC hits highest 9.75 today with a big red candle. For OCBC, 9.75 and 9.80 are resistances it must clear. Even if it clear these, $10 is a major roadblock I think will be very difficult to cross. If it reach $10, without hesitation, I would short first. So too for now as 9.75 is a minor resistance and with both other banks weak, this one can't be spared too.

DBS: Triple Top at $15, $14.94 to be exact is a major major resistance. Today it brought down both UOB and OCBC. A big short to consider now.

Just be careful of any long position for the banking sector. You may consider doing pair hedging by shorting this sector against your long position going into the year ahead of the Fiscal Cliff incident.

Regards
Daniel

Radio FM958访谈 2018年11月15日:世界股市展望 - 现在是熊市吗?

·         美国 股市担心苹果业绩,巴菲特却大胆投资! 道琼斯昨晚闭市在 25080 ,掉了 205 点。在这 10 月 11 月道琼斯的波动都相当大。有很多投资朋友开始怀疑熊市是不是已经来临了。我的答案是还没有。这个跌幅反而是好时机进场。大家不用太担心。 ...