Tuesday, 31 January 2012

US stock Tip - KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC) bursting towards All time High!


KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC) - The 2nd best technological stock this quarter, apart from Apple, released great earnings on 26th Jan. This is a stock to watch out for this quarter. CEO is optimistic about the company future when being interviewed on CNBC.

Depending on the market direction this week after the Jobs reports, this stock might continue its ascent. My opinion is to wait for this Friday Jobs report confirmation before deciding whether to enter position.

Market Sentiment Indicator for 31 Jan

New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 71.27% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 7 Dec)
Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 58.18% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 80.00% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 5 Dec)   

(NYSE & S&P 500 Above 70% now. US may be due for a correction these 2 mths. Pls wait for my Bearish Signal)

Energy Sentiment indicator: 60.47% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 10 Jan)
Financial Sentiment indicator: 81.48% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 5 Dec)

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions.

Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

Forex Trading Tip on EurUsd

Analysis on EurUsd Currency Pair :
EurUsd has been in uptrend movement since 19 Jan 2012 after broken above upper channel line of a down channel that started 31 Oct 2011.(Refer to Daily Chart attached)

We are looking to take a small profit of 20 pips out from forex market on daily basis.The stop loss for the trade is 20 pips too. Risk reward ratio is 1:1.


By looking at M15 chart , we look to Buy at 1.3150 if price retrace below this level. (See attached chart)

Today is a showing why the Stock Market is Manipulated!

Dear Friends,

If you think that the whole stock market is a fair playing field with no manipulation, THINK AGAIN! In our view, the stock market is a 1000m swimming pool filled with Hungry Sharks. This is no place for the ORDINARY retailers who thinks he can make some $ trying his luck gambling on some shares he heard in the newspapers.

NO! You could never make $ that way, not when you play the "game of trading" the way 95% of the retailers play! To play this game, you need to think like the sharks, the manipulators, the big boys, the people controlling the market or whatever you label them.

On Thursday, I sent out an email named "STI will have a series of Resistances between 2900 & 3000, Better to Profit Take first!" You may check my website www.danielloh.com on this previous article.


In the article I explained that the market makers might have exited and asked everyone to profit take by the weekend especially when Dow has reached the resistance of 12700 and STI the resistance of 2900. On Thursday, Friday and Monday today, Dow has closed 3 consecutive days in the RED. Today STI is back below 2900 closing 2888. Have you wondered why is that so?

Because the SHARKS are almost one step ahead of the retailers. They need to exit to take advantage of any shorting opportunities this week, a week marred with so many uncertain reports. I bet with confidence that they hope this week there will be any economical reports miss.

On last Thursday, I notify all that on Monday, the sharks might release some news to the media to slow the confidence of the market, so that they can prepare for any shorting opportunities in the week. See all these headlines that I found in some of the most influential websites in the world. Filled with negativity!




"Then how do you win in the stock market, Daniel??" You might ask. My advice is ALWAYS THINK LIKE THE SHARKS! When you can't win them, you have to JOIN THEM! Be the only 5% traders who win. Always think like them, and one step in advance of the retailers out there. If you can't, just stay out of this GAME!

Sunday, 29 January 2012

Market Sentiment Indicator for 30 Jan

New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 71.44% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 7 Dec)
Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 57.867% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 80.60% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 5 Dec)   

(NYSE & S&P 500 Above 70% now. US may be due for a correction these 2 mths. Pls wait for my Bearish Signal)

Energy Sentiment indicator: 62.791% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 10 Jan)
Financial Sentiment indicator: 81.481% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 5 Dec)

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions.

Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

Friday, 27 January 2012

Market Sentiment Indicator for 27 Jan

New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 70.80% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 7 Dec)
Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 56.871% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 80.00% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 5 Dec)   

(NYSE & S&P 500 Above 70% now. US may be due for a correction these 2 mths. Pls wait for my Bearish Signal)

Energy Sentiment indicator: 62.791% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 10 Jan)
Financial Sentiment indicator: 81.481% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 5 Dec)

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions.

Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

STI will have a series of Resistances between 2900 & 3000, Better to Profit Take first!

Dear Friends,

Today STI closes at 2894. It has reached our target set of 2900 after standing above the support of 2640. Even if it broke above 2900, it still has a major resistance at 3000. I strongly believe to break through 3000 is never an easy task.

For STI stand above 3000, we need to focus our eyes on major reports coming out next week in US. The reports next week needs to be GOOD!

Of course, I encourage all who are short term investors to profit take 2moro like what the professional traders will be doing. You may want to SELL HALF your profitable positions if you are greedy. 

Barring any sudden good news, I foresee 2moro afternoon at US (after 12pm Eastern Time, Singapore time 1am), you will see the market might starting to decline as traders wind up their positions before the weekend. In fact S&P 500 and Nasdaq is in the RED while DOW is green today. I suspect some players have left the market today.

My forecast is Monday might start off with a down day. Market makers might try to release some bad news to slow the confidence down. Let us see whether they are any bad headlines in the media. If there are, you will know it is the makings of the market makers. Knowing their game is important!

After Monday, please pay SERIOUS attention to major reports starting Tuesday 31st January 9.45am Eastern time with Chicago PMI. On Wednesday, there will be the ISM report (enterprise report) and ADP employment. To round it up, we have Non farm payroll and Unemployment Rate on Friday.

Any shortfall in ANY results next week will be an excuse for Shorting for the professionals. 
For us retailers, let us see if we can participate in any SHORTING opportunities next week. Get your weapons ready! For options players, you might just buy a single PUT on S&P500 ETF 'SPY' or Dow Jones ETF 'DIA' .

-----------------------------------------------------------

Btw, we (ART Team) will be having a  FREE workshop: 

 <<Singapore Stock Market Analysis for 2012>>  

on  30th Jan (Mon) English Session  OR  31st Jan (Tue) Chinese Session.
 
Do recommend your friends to this workshop!

Sharing on  1) Market Outlook for Year 2012
                  2) How to use Technical Analysis to select stocks
                  3) How to your money and minimise your risks
                  4) Using ART systems to select stocks

Date: 30th  Jan 2012, Monday   OR   31st Jan 2012, Tuesday
Time: 7pm - 10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


Speaker: Andy Yew (ART system Founder, CFD specialist, trader)

For Registration: Pls email <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to rafflesbusiness@gmail.com or SMS
<Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Thursday, 26 January 2012

Singapore Stock Tip (using ART system): Noble - a worth watching stock

Dear Friends,

Attached is a stock that is worth monitoring & watching. Noble, after last quarter dismay earnings results, has been consolidating after Gapping Down 30cents. A few days back, it breaks out of $1.25. See how this stock flies!

However because we miss this breakout, let us wait patiently now for the consolidation back at $1.25. No point catching the flight now as the news has already broken out in the papers that its subsidiary company reported good earnings results.

I found out that this stock will release its Full year results on 28th Feb. So I believe there will be a run-up till the announcement. Most likely resistance at $1.50. See if we can get in at $1.25...

So watch closely now...

US Stock/ Options Tip - Netflix (NFLX) back from Dead with marvellous earnings!

Dear Friends,

NETFLIX (NFLX) the once darling of Wallstreet, which rises from $50 to $300 within 2 years. However because of an incorrect decision to increase rental of DVD subscription which leads to 2 quarters missing its Earnings estimates, it came tumbling down to $60 in 7 short months. Pls see the chart on where the Letter "E" is. They are the earnings day. See the Gap Down??

This is what I discovered trading US stock. For a strong growth stock like Netflix, normally after 2 quarters miss, it has a HIGH chance of beating the 3rd. This is what I termed "3rd time Lucky" stock. Recently I posted a stock TIP on Goldman Sachs. It suffered the same fate after missing 2 consecutive earnings estimates.

For Netflix, this stock is back from the dead. We can play this stock again and again this quarter after it breakout or when it is at the bottom of the box. Today it gaps up. Might open at $107. After consolidating, it will continue its ascent to $125. Remember to sell at $123 if it reaches this target! For options players, you may also  play straight call ITM options again and again upon breakout!

For the earnings report, pls check this website:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/netflix-profit-falls-13-but-beats-estimates-2012-01-25


Market Sentiment Indicator for 26 Jan

New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 69.786% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 7 Dec)
Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 56.567% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 79.20% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 5 Dec)   

(S&P 500 Above 70% now. US may be due for a correction these 2 mths. Pls wait for my Bearish Signal)

Energy Sentiment indicator: 62.791% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 10 Jan)
Financial Sentiment indicator: 79.012% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 5 Dec)

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions.

Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

Dow Jones Resistance at 12750 as predicted 3 weeks back!


Dear Friends,

Dow Jones this month has risen from 12200 to 12760, the highest point in January, 3 days back. Upon reaching 12750, it starts its 3 days drop. So far everything has gone according to what we have mentioned. A few weeks back we stated Dow Jones will experience a strong resistance at 12700 and STI at 2900. 
Pls check our website at www.danielloh.com for the earlier article. Do recommend your friends to this informative website.

Even if Dow Jones break this 12750 resistance, we need to be extremely cautious at 12900, which is the highest point reached since the Bull run starts 2 years back. This is what Asia Leading Stock Guru, Mr Hu Li Yang mentioned as the 2 times pressure resistance (卖压区). Not easy to break if you think so. Morever, judging from our Market Sentiment indicator, the market is near its overbought region, keep your eyes on NYSE market sentiment!

Of course, I encourage all who are short term investors to profit take by this Friday which is what the professional traders will be doing. Next week on Tuesday 31st January 9.45am Eastern time, if Chicago PMI doesn't meet expectation, it might be a day of shorting for the professionals.

So let us not take risk. As traders, we need to be snipers who wait patiently for the right entry point! Now is time to profit take first. But of course, you might ask if February has any chance to be a good month also? What I can say now is wait until next weekend to judge. All I can say is any miss on important reports can be a trigger for the shorts.

By the way I have been enjoying my holidays still. Will be back 2moro to office.

Our class on Mr Hu Li Yang teachings is FULL this Friday. Pls do not register anymore. Thank you for your support. We would hold other classes again! Keep a lookout on our website everyday. We would post you Free seminars, Good Articles by Gurus like Mr Hu Li Yang, Stock Tips on Singapore and US stocks, Forex Tips (1 trade per day) soon.... Pls check our website everyday!

Have a Great Chinese New Year & Huat ah!!!

Daniel Loh
Stock and Options trainer
Asia Stock Guru Mr Hu Li Yang's partner

Website: www.danielloh.com
Office no: +65 6418 8500 (close till 30th Jan) / +65 9178 7888
(may look for Venetia on any enquiries regarding our seminars)

Wednesday, 25 January 2012

US Stock/Options Tip: Apple jump up $30 before market open (as predicted 3 months back)

Dear Friends,

Do you remember 3 months back, I posted on Apple, this darling stock? At that time, it gaps down $20 on earnings day because it missed earnings. This time, in my class, I told our graduates that this time Apple might beat earnings.

I asked everyone to buy into this stock and hold it 3 months back. Although it did went down to $360 at one point because of the market selloff, it came back strong. I stated that 3 months back, its new 4S i phone sales will be a phenomenon. It did as earnings come out yesterday night shown. You could have pocketed $50 in the bag when it was at $400.

But having said that, be extra careful next quarter earnings 3 months later, as I believe it might not do as good as this quarter as holiday season is over. I would expect this stock to rest for a while before gunning new historical highs again and again this 3 months. Only suitable to play short term now!

Website Link on results:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-earnings-surge-on-blow-out-iphone-sales-2012-01-24



Market Sentiment Indicator for 25 Jan

New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 68.975% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 7 Dec)
Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 55.735% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 79.20% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 5 Dec)   

(S&P 500 Above 70% now. US may be due for a correction these 2 mths. Pls wait for my Bearish Signal)

Energy Sentiment indicator: 62.791% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 10 Jan)
Financial Sentiment indicator: 77.778% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 5 Dec)



A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions.

Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

Friday, 20 January 2012

US Stock/Options Tip: Google gaps down $57 after earnings miss!

Google Inc. reported a 6% rise in fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday afternoon, missing analysts’ expectations and triggering a sharp drop for the stock during after-hours trading.
The Web search giant missed Wall Street’s consensus earnings target by more than $1 per share. In a call with analysts on Thursday afternoon, executives blamed the miss on a variety of factors that included an impact from currency rates to an impairment charge. The company also continued to spend heavily, with operating expenses up 35% from the same period last year and the addition of more than 1,000 employees to its rolls. 


Let us see whether there is opportunities tonight for Google! Treat it as a study. Will post u the news...

Market Sentiment Indicator for 20 Jan

New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 67.230% (Bullish)
Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 54.51% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 79.00% (Bullish)
Energy Sentiment indicator: 62.79% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 10 Jan)
Financial Sentiment indicator: 76.54% (Bullish)


A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. When Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions.

Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

Thursday, 19 January 2012

Market Sentiment Indicator for today

New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 64.70% (Bullish)
Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 53.90% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 75.60% (Bullish)
Energy Sentiment indicator: 53.49% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 10 Jan)
Financial Sentiment indicator: 72.84% (Bullish)

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. When Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions.

Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

What is the strategy for STI now?

Dear Friends,

Everything goes according to plan this month. I am amazed by Mr Hu Li Yang and our predictions ;). STI is correctly predicted that it will have a support at 2640, as mentioned by Mr Hu Li Yang. I also mentioned that STI has a small resistance at 2800. In fact today, we reached this point and retraced, just as Dow reached 12500. I mentioned this a few days back.

But the biggest resistance is at 2910 for STI and 12700 for Dow, which I don't think will breakthrough so soon. At the beginning of this month, I also predicted that this month will be a great month as ISM and non farm beat expectations. So far so good! This is what I found after playing the US market this 8 years. This month is what I termed  "The Golden Cross of Fundamental reports".

So what is my strategy now? In fact, any drop in STI is a chance to get into the market, just like today. Buy on any dip. The market can't drop much, and won't drop for long.

However, the BIG TIP for you is that please profit take, take your profits off the table before next weekend, perhaps next Friday. I would tell you the reason SOON! Keep a lookout on our news in our website!

Pls do me a favor to let your friends know about this website too!

US Stock/ Options Tips: Goldman Sachs is Back from dead this quarter! Push Dow Ahead today

Dear Friends,

Just as I have suspected, this time Goldman Sachs seems good to beat earnings! In fact yesterday I posted Goldman Sachs (GS) chart for us to see. You may check on my blog. Today because of good earnings upside surprise, it rose 6%. Earnings per share, including dividends, for the quarter were $1.84, more than what the Analysts were expecting at $1.24 a share. Now it stands at $103.55.

As I have mentioned, Dow Jones will follow today and 2moro earnings closely. 2moro is a bigger earnings day.

By the way, I have attached another chart on Goldman Sachs. I feel that this stock is back from the dead this quarter after 2 consecutive earnings miss.

It broke out of the triangle or wedge pattern. Check the P&F chart. It has a bullish alert. You may buy and hold the stock. $120 is a good target for stock. For options, you may want to sell a bull out spread below $100 or buy a straight call. Remember your money management though. It may come back and test its trendline support again at $100.



-----------------------------------------------------------

Btw, I will be having a  FREE workshop: 

 <<Secrets of the US stock market & What Stocks to choose this month>>  

on the 1st Feb for you to understand about US market (in my opinion the best stock market in the world)!
 

Do recommend your friends to this workshop!

Date: 1 Feb 2012, Wednesday
Time: 7.30pm - 10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


For Registration: Pls email <Name><Email><HP><Date> to rafflesbusiness@gmail.com or SMS
<Name><Email><HP><Date> to 93676623

Wednesday, 18 January 2012

Market Sentiment Indicator for today

New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 63.718% (Bullish)
Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 52.417% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 73.60% (Bullish)
Energy Sentiment indicator: 53.488% (Bullish : Bull confirmed 10 Jan)
Financial Sentiment indicator: 71.605% (Bullish)

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size.

US Financial Sector seems so Strong still

Dear Friends,

After Friday JP Morgan (JPM) earnings miss and today's Citigroup (C) earnings miss, I am very surprised that the Financial Sector in US remains so strong. It proves that the whole US market is buoyant, brimming with confidence. Let us watch closely of earnings from Back of America (BAC) or Goldman Sachs (GS) to see if the financial sector's big stocks still miss their expectations 2moro and the day after.

Btw, Goldman Sachs is on its strong resistance trendline of $100. See whether their earnings results will revive this stock. It is touching its trendline resistance now.

Tuesday, 17 January 2012

China fourth-quarter GDP up 8.9%, beats estimates

China's gross domestic product accelerated at a faster pace than expected in the fourth quarter, belying fears of a slowdown in the country's growth momentum because of economic weakness in Europe. The country's GDP in the October to December period rose 8.9% from the year-ago quarter, weaker than the 9.1% expansion recorded in the three months to Sept. 30, but faster than the 8.6% growth tipped in a Dow Jones Newswires poll of economists. Other monthly economic indicators also beat expectations, with December retail sales climbing 18.1% from a year-earlier, while industrial output during the month rose 12.8%.

Market Sentiment Indicator today

New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 62.936% (Bullish)
Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 51.759% (Bullish)
S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 73.00% (Bullish)
Energy Sentiment indicator: 53.488% (Bullish)
Financial Sentiment indicator: 71.605% (Bullish)

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size.

Monday, 16 January 2012

US Market this week: Get Ready for Thursday!

Dear Friends,

US today is closed bcos of Martin Luther King Jr Holiday. Market is down today across Asia. As I have mentioned in my email or blog, STI at 2800 is a resistance. On Friday, it touched 2791 (9pts off 2800) before dropping. Now it stands at 2752.

Of course because of holiday in US, it is normal that on Friday, some traders profit take. If you are short term player, you should too if your position is in the green.

On the US market, this week is light on economical data. Our focus will be on a few giant company earnings that will provide indication as to how the market reacts to this season's earnings. Thursday after market close, Google (GOOG), Bank of America (BAC), American Express (AXP), Intel (INTC), IBM (IBM), Microsoft (MSFT) will all be reporting their earnings.

Currently Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) is having a short term resistance at 12500 (See attachment). To breakthrough and advance towards 12700, a good showing in earnings from these companies are needed.

Let us watch out!

-----------------------------------------------------------

Btw, I will be having a  FREE workshop: 


 <<Secrets of the US stock market & What Stocks to choose this month>>  

on the 1st Feb for you to understand about US market (in my opinion the best stock market in the world)!
 

Do recommend your friends to this workshop!

Date: 1 Feb 2012, Wednesday
Time: 7.30pm - 10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


For Registration: Pls email <Name><Email><HP><Date> to rafflesbusiness@gmail.com or SMS
<Name><Email><HP><Date> to 93676623

Happy New Year!

Daniel Loh
Stock and Options trainer
Asia Stock Guru Mr Hu Li Yang's partner

Did Gold break its 3 years Trendline? Yes and No

Dear Friends

Gold is living in a tight situation between the range of 1550 and 1700. At this moment Spot Gold is at a price of 1641. Please see the graph. The blue line represents the 30 wk MA which has been Gold support ever since 3 years ago. Each time, whenever it touches the MA, it continues its ascent. Recently it was broken a few weeks back. Will it becomes a resistance to the price of Gold? If it does, you may have seen the end of a 10year bull run in Gold.

However, having said that, there is also a strong trendline supporting the gold price now. See the red line. Recently Gold has rebounded off the low of 1500 which is also the trendline support. Will this figure hold?

I forecast that Gold will be hovering between 1550 and 1700 region. In the short term, I think it will travel towards 1700 before taking break.

Let us watch carefully whether 30wk MA or the 3 year trendline wins the day....

Friday, 13 January 2012

Article by 胡立阳 - 欧债风暴仅是金融海啸的余震

这波全球股市的拉回,只不过是2008年出现大崩盘之后的余震且渐近尾声。如果不明究里的认为是另一个大地震来了,恐慌之下只怕又要再一次重蹈三年前的覆辙。
先是担心通胀,接着又害怕衰退。这半年来,全球投资者的恐惧,充份反映在跌跌不休的股市上。尤其是,至目前为止,大家仍对欧债问题感到不安,认为这个在2011年第三季新蹦出来的金融危机,可能会比2008年的金融海啸更为可怕。只要大家一致如此认同,股市严重缺乏信心,不跌也难。究竟,在即将迎接2012年之际,欧债问题还会引发新一波前所未见的金融风暴吗?
我 一直以为,在历经了“雷声大、雨点小”的金融海啸之后,投资者应该领悟到2008年全球股市大崩盘与过去并不一样。它的形成并非是由经济发展过盛,接着再 由盛转衰的可怕循环所造成的,但由于大家不了解而造成的紧张,形成了心理面大于实质面的暴跌,通常会是“来得快,去得快”。这项论点,在全球股市由 2008年底就出现戏剧性的大翻身,而且接下来还维持了长达二年半的多头行情就得到了充分的证明。
还记得我在2008年时曾提出“小心!假通胀会造成真衰退”的论点吗?
2008年的上半年,全世界都正随着油价的高低起伏而感到心情七上八下。当时,最怕听到的名词就是“通货膨胀的时代恐将来临”。但我就曾不断提醒大家,小心“假通胀”会造成“真衰退”!
原因是,过去的十年,全球经济的景气,其实有如一滩止水,而且绝大多的数人,薪水都没有增加。工资没涨,但股价、房价却节节飙升,原物料、大宗商品以及油价更是个个涨翻天。
处在这样了无生气的环境下居然还能蹦出了“通货膨胀”,这不是很奇怪吗?我进入华尔街至今,还从没见过类似的现象。
让我先来告诉你,通货膨胀是怎么造成的?
根据经济学的理论,是有以下两个原因:
(1)需求拉抬(DemandPull)
(2)成本推升(CostPush)
但是,过去这些年来,各地的经济发展并没有看到这样的现象。于是我发现造成这波通货膨胀其实是有第三个新的原因──资金无处可去之下的集体炒作!
为什么会出现炒作的行为呢?因为过去这十年,全球景气一直冷飕飕的,大都处在低利率状态,大家觉得把钱存在银行里毫无赚头,只得寻求其他的投资途径。
从欧美开始,脑筋动得快的金融圈嗅到了商机,立即大量吸收游资,抢进股市、房市以及外围金融商品。一下子,各种私募的、公募的基金,合法的、公开的、地下的、私底下的资产管理、代客操作,都如雨后春笋般的冒了出来。
终于,冬眠了一段时间的一些“投资银行家”又醒过来了。过去由于不景气,他们推出的传统商品总是乏人问津。现在,为了争食大饼,铤而走险的拼凑出各种光怪陆离,例如次级房贷之类的“衍生性金融商品”。这些看起来漂漂亮亮的商品,很多根本就是裹着糖衣的毒药。
泛滥的资金加上诱人的金融商品,全民参与的金钱游戏就从2003年起如火如荼的由欧美开始蔓延。
连续几年,地球的上方,每天都有数以兆计的美元,像遨翔空中的秃鹰在寻找猎物。所以,全球各地一些没有实质GDP支撑的股市转眼间翻上几番,毫不起眼的房市也跟着飙个三倍、五倍也就不难让人理解了。
2007年10月发生的次贷风波,第一次暴露出投机气氛已经达到沸腾,但是并没有为投机者带来丝毫警惕,炒作的资金只不过是转移了目标,转向了石油及大宗商品。
于是,热钱过境,石油在2008年元月冲上每桶100美元之后仍然高烧不退。但是,大家都知道,高油价会引发通货膨胀,终于,全世界开始紧张起来。
显然,这个在苦哈哈的经济环境下所逼出来的通胀,是由“假性需求”所造成。它与过去大家因为有钱挥霍所引发的传统通胀完全不同,因此我称它为“假通胀”!
“假通胀”纯由资金炒作而成,并没有生产过盛的实质问题,原本只会是虚惊一场。但很遗憾,一般民众完全不了解这个道理。由于害怕,马上就会想紧缩消费,这么一来,就非常有可能出现我所担心的“真衰退”了!
在了解2008金融海啸的闹剧始末之后,就不难发现,2011年发生的欧债危机只是过去十年,金钱炒作的恶果仍在余波荡漾,我称它为金融海啸主震后产生的余震。
以最近引发欧债危机的希腊为例,再次暴露出华尔街“投资银行家”巧妙运用衍生性金融商品的包装,掩盖了希腊过去积弊十年的债务,拖到最近才终于现出了原形。而随后欧债出现的骨牌效应,也是冰冻三尺非一日之寒,现在都已经证明,就是长期投机炒作,所累积而成的后遗症。
结论是,欧债危机并不是新品种的麻烦,它与金融风暴系出同源,都是由低利率所引出的泛滥资金惹出的事端。所幸,历史纪录显示,没有严重的真通胀在先,就不会有随后类似美国1929~1933年可怕的大萧条发生,大家一定要先有这个概念,才能冷静下来思考。
这波全球股市的拉回,只不过是2008年出现大崩盘之后的余震且渐近尾声。如果不明究里的认为是另一个大地震来了,恐慌之下只怕又要再一次重蹈三年前的覆辙,不但造成无可弥补的财务损失,也为那些能冷静应对的人创造了财富重分配的机会。
  
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Btw, I will be conducting a  FREE "Hu Li Yang teachings" workshop: 

 <<2012年股市展望  与  选股10大招数>>  

on 27th Jan 2012 Friday for you to understand about the predictions of Mr Hu Li Yang (Asia Leading Stock Guru)
 
Do recommend your friends to this workshop! 请带您的朋友出席。

Date: 27th Jan 2012, Friday
Time: 7.30pm - 10pm


Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


 (Workshop Conducted in Mandarin)
 
For Registration: Pls email <Name><Email><HP><Date> to rafflesbusiness@gmail.com or SMS
<Name><Email><HP><Date> to 93676623

恭喜发财!

Daniel Loh
Stock and Options trainer
Asia Stock Guru Mr Hu Li Yang's partner

Tuesday, 10 January 2012

Will STI reach 2910 & Dow reach 12700?

Dear Friends,

After our last email titled "Will STI Bottom at 2640?", STI indeed makes its bottom the next day, gradually rising to 2700. Today it ends at 2691. This is what Asian Stock Guru Mr Hu Li Yang mentions: STI at 2640 is the Box Bottom, technically showing a Strong Support!

We still continue our stand that:
Since STI climbs above 2640, this support has held, STI might enjoy a run up to 2910, the Box Top. Of course, 2800 is still a resistance. It is the 50% mark between 2910 and 2640. Be careful at 2800.

We believe that STI and Dow should continue its climb in January.
To know whether STI will be good, we need to pay attention to US market.

Our reasons for being positive are:

1) This week marks the start of the earnings season for US stocks. Because of the great holiday season, (remember the Black Friday after thanksgiving marks the best retail sales ever in US history?)  I believe that there are quite a number of companies in US going to beat earnings expectations this quarter.

2) Earnings season in US and Singapore will divert some attention to stocks' earnings and less on Europe crisis.

3) Last week shows a better than expected ISM (institute of supply management report) , Non Farm payroll report, and Unemployment rate report.
As I have mentioned before, to know the direction of the market, please pay attention to the first week of every month as ISM shows how is the enterprise doing, while non farm and unemployment rate shows how the public situation is.


Having said that, We reluctantly have to admit that 12700-12900 seems to be a big hurdle for Dow Jones still, just like STI 2900-3000 is still a big barrier. We predict that market might not be that good in February or March. But let us take one month at a time.

Hope you enjoy the market this month and have a Happy Chinese New Year!!


Best Rgds
Daniel LohStock Trainer
Asia Stock Guru Mr Hu Li Yang partner


(Pls note that this email is solely for educational purpose only. There is no recommendation whatsoever to buy any stock. Any stocks or position taken should be studied carefully before taking any positions.)

Radio FM958访谈 2018年11月15日:世界股市展望 - 现在是熊市吗?

·         美国 股市担心苹果业绩,巴菲特却大胆投资! 道琼斯昨晚闭市在 25080 ,掉了 205 点。在这 10 月 11 月道琼斯的波动都相当大。有很多投资朋友开始怀疑熊市是不是已经来临了。我的答案是还没有。这个跌幅反而是好时机进场。大家不用太担心。 ...