Saturday, 28 April 2012

The Last 3 days rise is because of APPLE!

Dear Friends,

The market reports continue to be weak this week. Wednesday Durable Goods Report (which measures how the entreprise will be doing 3 mths down the road), Thursday Jobless Claims (Weekly figure on jobless help package), and Friday GDP figure all falls BELOW expectation.

This shows that this month the economical reports are consistently weak. This should have been a month whereby the index tumble. But why haven't it tumble hard??

At the beginning of April, we have mentioned that this is an earnings month. In an earnings month, some of the focus will be shifted to companies earnings. That is the MAIN REASON why the market did not fall hard. If this isn't an earnings month, I am sure every day we will be talking about bad economical report, problems in China and debt problems and political issues in Europe!



The last 3 days US Market has been rising. S&P500 has risen from 1360 to 1400, Dow Jones is back near its BOX TOP at 13300 again. Amazing recovery over the last 3 days. All this is because of APPLE. This staggering company is reviving the confidence of the companies earnings report on Wednesday. In fact statistics show that this season, more than 80% of companies issue earnings results above expectations, which is good news.

April has not been a good month to trade, a volatile month, a contradicting month whereby companies' earnings are generally good, but not economical report. It is good to stay in the sideline if you are not confident.

Wait for next week mega May reports before we make the next move!


Btw, we are giving a FREE Seminar to teach you how to predict the market direction every month by looking at US economical reports. Join us to learn the Secrets to US Stock Market!

------------------------------------------------------

<<Secrets to US Stock Market & How it affects Singapore Market>>
《美国股市的秘密 及 他如何影响新加坡股市》 

on  2 May (Wed) English Session OR 8 May (Tue) English Session  OR  9 May (Wed) Chinese Session.
Do recommend your friends to this workshop!

You shall learn
1) Basics of US Market
2) Learn How Warren Buffett make 100million in Oct 2012
3) Outlook of Singapore and US market
4) How to Earn Rental Income every month from the Stock Market

Date: 2 May (Wed) English Session   OR  
Date: 8 May (Tue) English Session    OR
Date:  9 May (Wed) Chinese Session (华文)

Time: 7pm -10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


Speaker: Daniel Loh (Raffles Business International Director, Mr Hu Li Yang partner, US Stock & Options Trainer)

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Jim Rogers on Markets, Economy and China

http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/jim-rogers-on-markets-economy-and-china/F8787B05-636A-4910-8902-24313BFE802C#!F8787B05-636A-4910-8902-24313BFE802C

Famed investor Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum fund with George Soros and chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, joins The News Hub to discuss his outlook for the financial markets, China and the U.S. economy.

曾淵滄博士: 加時交易經紀叫苦

股市奇悶,全球皆悶,沒有甚麼突出的消息,只好不斷地炒冷飯,翻炒消息。連美國聯儲局的伯南克也只是不斷地出口術, QE3備而不用,靠出口術吊投資者的胃口,撐住股市。歐債危機也是在天下無事下強造出來的事,搞了幾天就沒了下文。溫總更是高手,忽冷忽熱,一下子緊一下 子鬆,造好造淡者都可以利用溫總講話推波助瀾。

此情況下,受害的是港交所( 388)及眾多的經紀行。生意差了,工作時間卻拉長,難怪不少經紀反對延長交易時間。


不 過,與其無所事事,倒不如出外旅遊。我於微博看到陸叔在新加坡金沙嘆下午茶的照片,不知那裡服務改善了沒有?當年新加坡金沙剛開幕,我為了試一試那天台的 泳池,與太太飛去新加坡住在金沙兩晚。但泳池裏人山人海,人多到只能站在那裏,無法游泳,早上吃早餐,排隊等入座的人龍長時間在 30人以上,這是我貪新鮮的經驗。


推薦博客:投資錦囊

看好銀娛有原因

金沙中國( 1928)於澳門路氹的賭場,至今依然是人山人海,其獨特的威尼斯水鄉設計成了內地旅行團的必到之地,但是這類廉價旅行團走馬看花的轉一圈,賭場得益多大 則不得而知,澳門所有的賭場,真正賺大錢的是貴賓廳,貴賓廳的賭注收益佔總收益的七成以上,澳門之所以能超越拉斯維加斯就是因為豪客多,貴賓廳經營得好。


昨日,銀娛( 027)宣佈第二期的發展方案,去年銀河第一期賭場落成,銀娛的市佔率就急升至第二位,銀娛的土地儲備可以供銀娛發展第二期、第三期、第四期,所以銀娛長期是我最看好的澳門賭業股。


而金隅( 2009)同樣於昨日公佈業績,今年第一季度利潤下降 33%。前些時候,海螺( 914)也宣佈今年第一季度利潤下降 44%,真有些擔心我的愛股中建材( 3323)今年的表現。

Friday, 27 April 2012

I am Concerned about next Friday's Employment Report

Dear Friends,

The week is ending soon. Now I am already studying about next month's market direction. If you know our style,we always like to study how enterprises and public reports are to determine the direction of the month.

However, I am worrying about next month's employment report, the Non-farm payroll report, which will come out next Friday. After studying the jobless claims this month, I feel that next month's Non-farm payroll may have higher chance of falling below expectations. If you remembered, this month's non-farm payroll is a disaster, leading to the index drop from the peak. In fact a lot of US companies fall from the high after the non-farm payroll.

Of course, I do not like to predict results before they come out. But sometimes as a trader, I will assess the probability of whether it will be more or less than expectation before the real result. As such, I will know what the risks are holding on to a stock or buying the stock before the report.

As currently I don't feel quite good about next month's employment report, I would certainly want to stay in the sideline on any long position before next Friday unless I end my position before Friday.

I hope my concern about the employment report is WRONG this time. Will keep you updated on our market outlook analysis next week!!! Do keep a lookout.

Rgds
Daniel

Market Sentiment Indicator for 26 Apr

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 66.38% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)

2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 59.99% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 71.40% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(S&P500 Stocks has turned bearish)  

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 34.88%   (Bearish signal: Bear Alert on 7 Mar)
(Energy Sector has been falling for 1.5months ever since we give a bear alert early march. We are now watching for a change in sentiment soon. We predict it should change in 1 month's time! Keep a lookout if our indicator change direction!)

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 86.42% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 5 Dec)
6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 71.79% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert confirmed 20 Apr)
(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bearish) 

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 
 
Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

Thursday, 26 April 2012

Comments by Bernanke in FOMC statement

Pls click below for what Ben Bernanke said in FOMC meeting:
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2012/04/25/marketwatchs-live-blog-of-bernankes-press-conference/

Click here for summary:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-stands-pat-sees-gradual-improvement-2012-04-25

Basically no hints of stimulus at this moment yet... confirmation that interest rate increase in 2014.

A Comprehensive Study on Apple: What do you do now after gap up?

Dear Friends,

I received a feedback by one of our friends on Apple. Thank you! I think he provided valuable advice on Apple. This is what he said:

"The gap up looks dangerous as it didn't even break the last peak of $620.25 on 18 April. In addition, the market may very well be betting on the gap to close now. If not well managed, the gap could very well lead to a bearish continuation. Good luck..."

-------------------------------------------

This is the Daily Chart of Apple today:


Today Apple gaps up to open at $615.99. It went to highest at $618. Now it is at $608.64. The lowest it went is $606 for today. It is definitely true that $620 as mentioned is a resistance, which I have mentioned in my past article, that is the "Law of Gravity of price" figure.

I would like to add a few comments and questions for us to ponder about. Take your time to ask yourself these questions and I think you might gain something.

As a trader, we need to be 3 steps in front. We need to know what to do when different scenarios happen. Ask yourself:



1) Will Apple fill the gap all the time though normally technical knowledge told us that stocks do fill the gap? Look at the last gap up. After consolidating for a few days, it went off.

2) If Apple does not fill the gap and goes up, what is the price you buy at that will be the safest?

3) How do you know it has successfully stand above $620 and what price to exit after it breaks $620 and you have entered?

4) If it breaks $644, the all time high, what price to enter next?

5) By the way $567 is the high of the last candle before the gap up, which is $40 off the price now. Do you think it will fill the gap in stages or at one go?

<<This is a chart of Google last year that gaps up $60. You can see it fills the gap in stages. By the way Google reach support at $575 before it finally fills the gap at $560. Why is $575 the support??? By the way, this price is "the Law of Gravity of Price", a strong support figure>>


6) If it fills the gap in stages, where do you think the support are? My opinion is that Apple has a support at $600 and $575, meaning it will hit support 2 times before there is a chance to fill the gap.

To me, trading is all about prices. What price to enter and exit? Once you get it, MAKING MONEY is EASY!

-----------------------------------------------------

Btw, we are giving a FREE Seminar 
<<Secrets to US Stock Market & How it affects Singapore Market>>
《美国股市的秘密 及 他如何影响新加坡股市》 

on  2 May (Wed) English Session OR 8 May (Tue) English Session  OR  9 May (Wed) Chinese Session.
Do recommend your friends to this workshop!

You shall learn
1) Basics of US Market
2) Learn How Warren Buffett make 100million in Oct 2012
3) Outlook of Singapore and US market
4) How to Earn Rental Income every month from the Stock Market

Date: 2 May (Wed) English Session   OR  
Date: 8 May (Tue) English Session    OR
Date:  9 May (Wed) Chinese Session (华文)

Time: 7pm -10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


Speaker: Daniel Loh (Raffles Business International Director, Mr Hu Li Yang partner, US Stock & Options Trainer)

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Wednesday, 25 April 2012

US Market switching to defensive sectors?


Dear Friends, saw this article that mentions a Sector Rotation happening in US market now to defensive sector... In fact our market sentiment indicator of Technological stocks also indicate bearishness

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One of the ways to measure the mood of the stock market is to see what sector rotations are taking place beneath the surface. The chart shows that sector rotations over the past month reflect a market mood that is turning more defensive. The four sector lines are plotted "relative" to the S&P 500 which is the flat black line. In other words, the four sector lines are relative strength ratios that measure their performance "relative" to the S&P 500. The blue line shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) leading the market higher since the beginning of the year. Technology leadership is a good thing for the market. The XLK:SPX ratio has started to drop during April, however, which shows short-term loss of that leadership.

In fact, technology was this week's weakest sector. The other three lines show the relative performance of the three defensive sectors which are consumer staples (pink line), healthcare (green line), and utilities (red line). Those three sectors underperformed the S&P 500 since December as the market rallied. Notice, however, that those three relative strength ratios have turned up over the last month. In fact, utilities, healthcare, and staples were this week's three strongest sectors. That's normally a sign that investors are turning more defensive and are protecting themselves from a possible market correction.

US Stock Tip: Apple is Back in STYLE after this Surprise BEAT!

Dear Friends,

This is what I called, the most powerful GROWTH company in this current modern world!

Apple, Inc. reported second quarter earnings of $12.30 per share on revenue of $39.2 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $10.03 per share on revenue of $36.8 billion for the quarter ending March 31, 2012.

In after market hours, this company gapped up to $40 to above $600. WOW! And to think that iphone 5 is in the pipeline and apple imac sales coming up in next quarter earnings is tremendous.


This quarter we have loads of chances to make $ from this maiden again.

Having said that, now that it gaps up so much, I have to change my trading strategy. I would have to wait for the consolidation to occur. It may take a few days.

Article on Apple:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-earnings-surge-as-iphone-sales-top-target-2012-04-24

Regards
Daniel

Market Sentiment Indicator for 24 Apr

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 66.33% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)

2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 59.94% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 71.60% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(S&P500 Stocks has turned bearish)  

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 34.88%   (Bearish signal: Bear Alert on 7 Mar)
(Energy Sector has been falling for 1.5months ever since we give a bear alert early march. We are now watching for a change in sentiment soon. We predict it should change in 1 month's time! Keep a lookout if our indicator change direction!)

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 83.95% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 5 Dec)
6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 71.79% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert confirmed 20 Apr)
(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bearish) 

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 
 
Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

All eyes on Apple Earnings 2night in US Market


Dear Friends,

It is so Funny that yesterday Europe problems are forgotten in today's market. The so called political crisis of French left wing right wing is not in the headlines anymore. Same to the Dutch government problems. If it is such a problem, it would be in the headlines constantly this week! Sigh, the ploy of the market makers work again!!! They scare the market off again on Monday....

By the way, today's Wallstreet million dollar question is "Will Apple gap down tonight?" If so, it might bring down Nasdaq100 2moro. In fact, I hope it gaps down 25 points so that I can get on this boat again. Now it is trading at $557. I think if earnings is not up to expectation, it may gap down to around $525, which looks tasty again.

But having said that, I think the probability of this stock gapping down a lot tonight has diminished with the drop it has suffered recently. After learning about the US Market the past 10 years, I noticed that the weird thing about Earnings is "It always play against the Market Expectation". If Apple was where it was 10 days back at $644, I would have bet 100% of my money on a GAP Down.

But now after dropping almost $90 from its high within 11 trading days, I feel that now the chances of gapping down has decreased a lot more. In fact if it is In-line with expectations ie. its EPS is same as that forecasted by analysts, I think the stock might just open in the green. Now I am really looking at a potential Long opportunity after earnings.

I think this is a tremendous lesson we can learn. I will update you on any progress.

Rgds
Daniel

Singapore Stock Tip: Starhub is remarkably resistant, let us see if it goes past $3.23

Dear Friends,

Amid the volatile market swing, I find that Starhub seems remarkably strong and resilient. It touches briefly at $3.25 before coming back to end the day at $3.20. Volume is higher today than yesterday, which is a good thing. Let us see if it goes back up to $3.23 again.

May have the chance to move up somemore if it can move past $3.23.

Having said that, 4th May is the earnings day. Will this stock run to earnings day? Remember to liquidate your position b4 earnings.

Regards
Daniel

-----------------------------------------

Btw we will be giving a FREE Seminar on trading on Singapore Stocks:


Prof Chan Yan Chong revision & Secrets of Singapore Stocks
<<曾渊昌博士投资复习班 & 新加坡股市的秘密>> 

Topic:  1) Will there be a QE3? What conditions are needed to have it?
           2) Why is the the market so concerned on Europe Bond Auctions?
           3) How will Oil affect America Economy?
           4) When will China Stock Market Slump End? How will it affect Singapore?

Date:
Thu, 26 Apr 2012 (English) and Fri, 27 Apr 2012 (Chinese)
Time: 7pm - 10pm
Session: English & Chinese
Speaker: Mr Daniel Loh (Student of Prof Chan)

Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
                #07-02 S(069541),
                Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


 
To register pls click  here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623 

Tuesday, 24 April 2012

It is a Sea of Red in US and Europe

Dear Friends,

Affected by the Europe open, Dow Jones dropped 150 points on Midday. Look at the S&P500 chart of stocks. A sea of Red across all sectors and stocks.


See this News in Marketwatch:

"NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks declined sharply Monday as investors worried about political uncertainty in Europe and as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. was hit by a report that it hindered an investigation of bribery allegations."

The thing is I feel these are all Bull****!  Pardon me for my impulsive language. I just want to get my message across. What Europe uncertainty?! I could not even see a good piece of news talking about Europe uncertainty. This is the nearest article I get touching on any uncertainty, if there is.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/politics-pmi-amplify-euro-zone-debt-fears-2012-04-23

The thing is, Europe has no political uncertainty. Forget about what Left and Right Wing of French Election. The real reason for this month volatile market is that US Economical Reports aren't good in April. It is not Europe or China that cause this fall. It is just that market confidence is delicate this month ever since the terrible Non Farm Payroll report! And market makers or Big Boys in Wallstreet is making use of news, any news which they can, to SCARE the market, as they knew confidence is not high now. This is the GAME of WALLSTREET!

As traders, we need to be sensitive to market psychology and confidence. We need to have methods and ways to track this market confidence. We need an advantage over retailers to know before them the direction of the market! That is why we always make use of our Market Sentiment Indicator to track Market Confidence. It has worked incredibly well.

For this month, our advise remains the same: 1) Cut down on your position if you want to enter. 2) Even if buy a good stock, buy a bad one to hedge, a pair hedging technique.

Btw, I expect this lack of confidence to continue to next week, until next week's big Employment and Enterprise Data. Do not RUSH to enter position, because if next week's reports continue its weakness, it might become a "Sell in May and Go Away" month as mentioned by so many people. But having said that, if QE3 is out, then it is a totally different story!

Regards
Daniel

Monday, 23 April 2012

Market Sentiment Indicator for 23 Apr

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 68.05% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)

2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 61.05% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 74.40% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(S&P500 Stocks has turned bearish)  

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 37.21%   (Bearish signal: Bear Alert on 7 Mar)
(Energy Sector has been falling for 1.5months ever since we give a bear alert early march. We are now watching for a change in sentiment soon. We predict it should change in 1 month's time! Keep a lookout if our indicator change direction!)

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 86.42% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 5 Dec)
6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 75.60% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert confirmed 20 Apr)
(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bearish) 



A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 
 
Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

Earnings on Apple on Tuesday and FOMC meeting the Key focus this week!

Dear Friends,

Apple recent decline is dramatic. On Friday it close 20 points down again. If you are a day trader, you would have make a lot of money recently because it either goes down in a single direction the whole day or up the whole day.

However the momentum is gone after falling for 3 consecutive days ever since it touches the high of $644. Mr Hu Li Yang says in his "10 Ways to Sell a Stock" that once a stock falls for 3 consecutive days or 4/5 days, it is time to Sell! 

In fact I think the recent selling of the stock is GOOD for Apple. If not for the selling, I think it will fall harder on wednesday, after the Earnings Day. I feel that the Big Boys in Wall Street thinks like me, feels that Apple has a high chance not to beat its earnings this quarter. That is the main reason for the High Volume recently. They are leaving. The Big Boys are liquidating their shares ahead of the Earnings.

My play on Apple is this: I would go in after their Earnings. The harder they drop the faster they rebound. But if Apple gaps up instead, I would let it consolidate first.

I  suggest for those investing in US Market, to go in light on your position before Apple announce their Earnings, because this Stock can swing the Market.

On Wednesday, let us look out for Ben Bernanke's speech. See whether they may be hints on a QE coming up.

Regards
Daniel

Friday, 20 April 2012

Market Sentiment Indicator for 20 Apr

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 68.20% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)

2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 61.22% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 74.80% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(S&P500 Stocks has turned bearish)  

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 37.21%   (Bearish signal: Bear Alert on 7 Mar)
(Energy Sector has been falling for 1.5months ever since we give a bear alert early march. We are now watching for a change in sentiment soon. We predict it should change in 1 month's time! Keep a lookout if our indicator change direction!)

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 86.42% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 5 Dec)
6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 78.21% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 11 Jan)

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 
 
Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

Spain Bond Auction sale better than expected but US can't shake off bad economical reports

Dear Friends,

The economical reports continue its weakness today. As I have emphasized so much since the start of the month that studying the first week of every month, you will know how the direction of the month goes. For this month, enterprise report is in line with expectations but Public reports generally are less than expectations. This month direction should be sideway or down.

 S&P500 has been down 6 out of the past 9 sessions.

Economical Reports is again the reason for the Dow to be down 50 points at mid day today in US. If not for the successful bond auction in Spain, Dow might have a triple digit fall today. It cushioned the poor economical reports today.

Pls see our economical chart this week:


All 3 reports today, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing and Existing Home sales are less than expected. This is the trend for this month. There are more misses than beats. So don't expect the market or index to climb this month.

But I am looking forward to next Wednesday FOMC meeting already. Ben Bernanke will be giving a speech. This week, there are lots of talking in Wall Street about whether Big Ben announce QE3 soon. Let us pay attention to him next week. I think over this weekend, Big Ben will speak also. Like what Prof Chan said, let us pay attention to whether he mention how enterprise is going to borrow money. If so, QE3 will be in the pipeline!

The recent slowdown and softening in the economical reports is an indication that there might be a QE coming. However the IRONY is that it is still not TERRIBLE enough that QE3 becomes a must.

Regards

Thursday, 19 April 2012

Pay Attention to Spain's 10 year Bond Auction (Thursday) after Europe open

Dear Friends,

As I wrote in the weekly article, 2moro is the main event for this week. This week, the market has been totally immersed with Spain's Bonds. DOW rallied 200 points on Tuesday because the sale of 12 - 18 months bonds were better than expected. 2moro will be longer term 10 year bonds which are considered more important!!

Today DOW drops 80 points again because of Spain because of increasing bad debt ratio by Spanish banks. So I expect 2moro bond auction to be the mega event of the week. If anything is less than expected, expect market to fall and vice versa.

The thing is issuing bonds are the only way Government can finance their debts. If nobody buys, then Government will default on payment of old bonds or debts, which may lead to further downgrades on their bonds. When that happens, more don't want to buy them. This is a vicious cycle like what Greece goes through.

They are defaulting on their debts. Nobody wants Greece bonds now.


Article on Spain yesterday posted by Marketwatch:


Wednesday, 18 April 2012

Update on Apple: See how it flies today with $9 up now!

Dear Friends,

See how Apple is flying today. This is money falling from the sky! But having said that, Apple has a slight resistance at $620 and $625. See if it breaks through. At this moment, today's high is $620.25.

Options Graduates, remember $620 is a Law of Gravity of Price, which is a resistance!  ;) Now price is at $617.40.

If we day trade, when price comes back $619.81 without falling back to $618.50, get ready for the breakout!

Trading is all about knowing Prices! Once we know PRICES and the SPEED prices move, we know the movement of stocks!

Charting should be a secondary tool which we take for reference.

Rgds
Daniel

US Stock Tip: Did you make money from Apple?

Dear Friends,

As I mentioned in last article, I am waiting for Apple to be up $10 on a single day. I mentioned we should watch with double eyes. Check my article below to pay attention to Apple:

http://www.danielloh.com/2012/04/google-indeed-dictate-market-on-friday.html

Yesterday, it went from day low of $571.91 to $609, an increase of $38 in 1 single day!!!! Remember $570 is a Law of Gravity of Price! If you come for our course, we taught you how to day trade stocks. Yesterday night was a No-brainer money making Day on Apple play! 

You would have make BIG $ as it went from bottom to end at a high! If you are holding position, continue. Just put your stop loss higher. If you daytrade, I think you make enough. Let us see if the momentum continues today. Chances are high!

This can only happen in the US Market.

----------------------------------------------------

Btw, we are giving a FREE Seminar 

<<Secrets to US Stock Market Course & How it affects Singapore Market>>
《美国股市的秘密 及 他如何影响新加坡股市》 



on  2 May (Wed) English Session OR 8 May (Tue) English Session  OR  9 May (Wed) Chinese Session.
Do recommend your friends to this workshop!

You shall learn
1) Basics of US Market
2) Learn How Warren Buffett make 100million in Oct 2012
3) Outlook of Singapore and US market
4) How to Earn Rental Income every month from the Stock Market

Date: 2 May (Wed) English Session   OR  
Date: 8 May (Tue) English Session    OR
Date:  9 May (Wed) Chinese Session (华文)

Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


Speaker: Daniel Loh (Raffles Business International Director, Mr Hu Li Yang partner, US Stock & Options Trainer)

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Question by Graduate: Can we Short NOL now? Nope

Dear Friends,

Let us treat this as a case study. I received a question from our Graduate on this stock NOL. He ask if this stock follows Mr Hu Li Yang's system of breaking down a Box Bottom.

Let us see this chart:

My Opinion: Instead of shorting, we should be looking at buying instead. It went to bottom of Box at $1.25 yesterday. I am looking for a bounce off the bottom. This is triple bottom alert, not a breakdown yet. Let us see today if it bounce off the support. Hopefully with good volume and a good candle.

Even if $1.25 does not hold, $1.20 should hold. This is the price of "LAW OF GRAVITY OF PRICE" figure!

Having said that, this is earnings season. I would like to know when NOL release its earnings before going in. Check your date with your broker

Rgds
Daniel

Tuesday, 17 April 2012

Market Sentiment Indicator for 17 Apr

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 67.99% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)

2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 60.94% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 75.40% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(S&P500 Stocks has turned bearish)  

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 37.21%   (Bearish signal: Bear Alert on 7 Mar)
(Energy Sector has been falling for 1.5months ever since we give a bear alert early march. We are now watching for a change in sentiment soon. We predict it should change in 1 month's time! Keep a lookout if our indicator change direction!)

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 87.65% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 5 Dec)
6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 78.21% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 11 Jan)

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 
 
Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

QE3有可能出台吗?曾渊沧博士觉得很有可能

亚洲股市大师曾渊沧博士最近在《股市资讯》于DBS讲堂举办的讲座中,展望了全球市场接下来的动态。这场非常成功的讲座让我们从中得到很多关于股市的宝贵知识。曾博士的确是一个又懂经济又懂股市的权威。


大多数人目前很想提出的问题是,“QE3(第三轮量化宽松政策)有可能出台吗?”


就连华尔街的投资家都在猜测。道琼斯工商指数最近从其4月初的13,297点高位滑落至昨天(4月16日)的12,921点闭市价。跌幅是因为联邦储备局主席伯南克说我们暂时不会印钞票。从他发言那天开始,美国股市就开始下滑。


曾渊沧博士觉得印钞票的可能性很高。他说“美国现在很有条件印钞票。它的通货膨胀率很低,可是失业率还是很高。美国与中国的情况不一样。中国现在有通货膨胀问题,因为它之前印得太多钞票。”


在今年十一月,美国会举行总统大选。曾博士觉得美国首要任务就是把失业率降低。这就只有当美国人开始花钱和企业开始扩充生意,失业率才有可能下来。


曾博士觉得印钞票必须达到两个目的。其一是把钱分配到美国人手上让他们去消费;其二是分到企业手上让他们制造就业机会。上一轮的QE2并没有达到这 些目的。大多数的钱还是到了少部分有钱人手上,所以大多数美国人还是没有消费,生意没有好转 ,企业也因此没有借钱扩充生意。QE2只是令到股市回升,可是并没有解决就业问题。


曾博士说“当联邦储备局想到一个好方法来把钱分配出去,QE3就会出台! ”他呼吁我们一定要留意伯南克所说的话。“当伯南克说一些像企业能用什么方式来借钱的话时,我们就要立即进场买股!”


曾博士对美国股市今年的表现感到非常乐观。“在年底前,美国股市应该会创新高,并来到一个心理关卡。当股市创新高后,美国股市可能会有一个很快的上升。”

如果您想知道更多曾博士讲座的内容,请前来我们举办的免费复习班。
----------------------------------------

 <<曾渊昌博士投资复习班 & 新加坡股市的秘密>>  

1) QE3会出台吗?在什么条件下会出台?
2) 为什么市场这么关注欧洲债券的拍卖?
3) 油价对美国经济有什么影响?
4) 中国股市的跌势几时会停?它对新加坡股市有何影响?

日期:4月19日(星期四,英文讲座) 或4月20日(星期五,华文讲座)
时间:晚上7点至10点

地点:141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building 
#07-02 S(069541), 
丹戎巴葛地铁站G出口,直走80米,红绿灯对面

入场:免费(只剩20个位)

讲师: Daniel Loh


要报名, pls click  here 
或SMS <名><Email><电话><日期><多少席位> 到 93676623

Will we have a QE3? Prof Chan Yan Chong thinks so!

Asia’s leading investment guru, Professor Chan Yan Chong recently conducted a seminar on the outlook of the stock market. It was held by Shares Investment at the DBS Auditorium. Professor Chan is a leading expert on how the economy and stock market functions and we have obtained a lot of valuable information on the stock market from him in the seminar.

The big question on everybody’s mind now is, “Will we have a quantitative easing QE3?”

Even the big boys on Wall Street are guessing. In US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently dropped from its high at the start of April from 13,297 to end at 12,921 yesterday. The reason for this drop is that the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke quashed the possibility of a QE3 in the near term. There has been a small correction in US since his remarks.

However, Professor Chan thinks the likelihood of printing money again is high. He commented, “Currently America has the conditions to print money as their inflation is low but unemployment rate is still high. Differing from the US, China is feeling the after effects of printing too much money and suffering from high inflation now.”

As US election will happen at the end of November, Professor Chan thinks that the main objective of US this year would be to bring down unemployment rate. This can only be achieved if Americans start to spend and enterprises start to expand their businesses.

Professor Chan is of the view that the objective of printing money needs to serve two purposes which are to distribute money to Americans to spend and to distribute to enterprises so that they create jobs. The last round of QE2 did not serve this purpose as the bulk of the money for QE2 went only to the rich instead of everyone. As Americans did not spend, businesses did not improve, enterprises in turn, did not borrow money to expand their businesses. QE2 only benefited the stock market but not in the creation of jobs.

Professor Chan said, “When the Fed think of a way to distribute the money, then QE3 will come!” He urged all of us to pay attention to what Bernanke has to say. He added that, “If Bernanke gives indications like how enterprises can borrow money, then it is time to buy stocks!”

Professor Chan shows optimism in the US stock market this year. “The US stock market is probably going to hit new high by year end. In fact after hitting new high, which is a psychological figure, it might have a parabolic run.”

To know more about what Professor Chan taught in the seminar, please come for our Free Revision session on Professor Chan’s teachings.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Prof Chan Yan Chong revision" workshop
& Secrets of Singapore Stocks

Topic:  1) Will there be a QE3? What conditions are needed to have it?
           2) Why is the the market so concerned on Europe Bond Auctions?
           3) How will Oil affect America Economy?
           4) When will China Stock Market Slump End? How will it affect Singapore?

Date:
Thu, 19 Apr 2012 (English) and Fri, 20 Apr 2012 (Chinese)
Time: 7pm - 10pm
Session: English & Chinese
Speaker: Mr Daniel Loh (Student of Prof Chan),  not Prof Chan Yan Chong himself

Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
                #07-02 S(069541),
                Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


 
To register pls click  here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Monday, 16 April 2012

Update on US Market opening and Mastercard

Dear Friends,

No play on Mastercard today.... Today major market still weak, as Apple and Google continue its trend down. Tech sector is weak. Mastercard could not muster its momentum to shake off broad market weakness. Even Dow Jones is in the green, S&P 500 and Nasdaq is in the red! Declining counters defeat Advancing 50.4% to 35.5%. 


Judging by this opening, I think our Market Sentiment Indicator will continue its bearish momentum today. As mentioned, our market sentiment indicator has turned bearish on 10 April.

Do check our Market Sentiment Indicator:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/04/market-sentiment-indicator-for-16-apr.html

Let us take a light rest first. Protect our capital is key now.

Rgds
Daniel

Somehow I feel STI is one of the Most resilient Index last week. Hot $ coming in?

Dear Friends,

Just a feeling, haven't done a comprehensive research. Treat this as a leisure article. Last week, US seems quite volatile. However I notice that STI didn't drop. In fact I think it rises. It seems quite strong recently. Today all major Asia index is in the red (though not much), STI manage to stay in the green.

Today I read Straits Times article that some Hedge Fund money (known as Hot Money) coming into Asean Region from US and other places. VERY INTERESTING! I haven't studied KL index, see if it is as resilient. But let me do some research first.

If this is true, maybe it is time to pick up some Singapore Stocks after a long consolidation. 

Will STI going to pierce through 3030 soon? 

If HOT MONEY coming in, this is certainly a BIG possibility!

Regards
Daniel

Short Term Day Trade Opportunity - Mastercard going for $450

We call off this trade as Market started being bearish today...

-----------------------------------------------------------

Dear Friends,
There might be a chance for a opportunity to buy in on Mastercard. Although Friday US decreased by 3 digits, it still close 6 points up. Seems like going after $450 this time. Now it is at $440. Today Europe opened in the green, let us see how US open tonight. Focus on Citigroup earnings before market open.

There is a good chance Mastercard will have a run-up tonight. The strategy is to put your stop loss at your breakeven if you make a bit of $. Mastercard might have some resistance between $449 and $450. But if it is strong, it might breakout.

For our options graduates, not advisable to play spreads on this trade. Just a straight call. Put your stop loss at breakeven if you make a bit of $. Let us see how it goes at $449-$450.

Btw, beware of American Express Wednesday earnings after market close also.

Let us treat this as a case study!!!


Market Sentiment Indicator for 16 Apr

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 68.22% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)

2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 61.32% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 76.6% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(S&P500 Stocks has turned bearish)  

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 39.54%   (Bearish signal: Bear Alert on 7 Mar)
(Energy Sector has been falling for 1.5months ever since we give a bear alert early march. We are now watching for a change in sentiment soon. We predict it should change in 1 month's time! Keep a lookout if our indicator change direction!)

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 87.65% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 5 Dec)
6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 82.05% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 11 Jan)



A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 
Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

US Focus this week will be on Spanish Bond Auction on Thu

Dear Friends,

In US, this week is a fully filled earnings week. Starting from Monday, Citigroup will announce its earnings Before Market Open. After JP Morgan and Wells Fargo dismay results, market is looking to Citigroup for a shot in confidence in the Financial Sector.

On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs earnings will influence the Financial Sector. IBM and Intel will influence the technological sector while Pharmaceutical companies will look up to Johnson & Johnson.

On Wednesday, American Express will influence credit companies like Visa and Mastercard.

On Thursday, Market will FOCUS on the Spanish Bond Auction, where some analysts forecast might not be that good. Just be careful! So keep double eyes on that auction. On Thursday, Microsoft will also create an influence on Tech sector.

So much filled action this week from earnings plays. Just keep note of the sectors you play and look at some of the influential companies that might influence your stock!

Attached are some influential companies releasing earnings:

Saturday, 14 April 2012

Google indeed Dictate the Market on Friday - in the worst way possible!

Dear Friends,

As I have mentioned, Google probably will dictate Friday Market. It contributed in the Dow decreasing by a triple digit 136 points on Friday. The Fear of China slowdown is back, although the paradox is that Shanghai actually increase for the day. I have time and again mentioned that April might not be that good a month to trade on the upside as ECONOMICAL Reports are not that good. I told in our last article that I am not convinced when Dow increased 200 points on Wed and Thu. Friday proves the point!

Google after releasing its earnings on Thursday night, went down $26 on Friday. What is amazing is that it actually beats its earnings estimate by $0.51, an upside surprise of 6.19%. However what caused this stock to collapse is that Google reported a 12% year-over-year decline in cost-per-clicks.

Btw, Google shows the unpredictability of earnings. Lesson to be learn in Trading! Never hold any stocks through earnings if you are a short term player.

Will Google rise back again? YES! This quarter will have opportunities to play it again. Just that it needs a Rest. Every stocks Rest before they run.

Apple was also dragged down. It was dragged down because BIG MONEY has left the stock. That is the reason that on Thursday, we issued a statement that Apple has been lying dead, and we don't see any heartbeat. On Friday Apple reached a low of $603.

I am using a microscope to scrutinize this stock now. $600 is the STRONG Support, I would pay attention if I see any revival, especially if this stock starts to move more than $10 a single day. Would take a look again if it exceeds $615.

But all in all, my advice in trading is that we should always STUDY the market before stocks. As we have mentioned that Market is not that favorable now, just be prudent and careful in our approach. Remember your stop loss this month!

There is always another time to make back our Money! Move on if you have lost this week. Take a breather, study the market, plan your trades, get back to basics. 

THIS IS THE LIFE OF A TRADER!

Rgds
Daniel



Friday, 13 April 2012

Google will dictate Direction of US Market 2moro

Dear Friends,

As Focus change to earnings, we need to start to keep track of some of the companies earnings. Tonight after market close, Google will announce its earnings. This stock has been so high profile that I think it will determine the direction of the US market 2moro.

Analyst expects it to produce an EPS of $8.24 Last quarter EPS is $8.22. After falling short last quarter, I think Google might have a chance to beat this time. Let us see how everything goes tonight.

Apple has been lying dead ever since 3 days ago after touching a high of $644. At this current moment, I don't see any signs of revival. No heartbeat at all in this stock. Forget about it now..

Rgds

Thursday, 12 April 2012

Wallstreet recovers with Dow Jones up 116 points, But I am not that convinced

Dear Friends,

I am tilting towards being more bearish than bullish now. Especially since our NYSE market sentiment indicator tells me that. As we have mentioned, we are looking for the Bearish signal confirmation ever since February. The risk has been high in this overbought situation.

Look at the economical calendar for the first week.
So many reports less than expectations.... See the Red colour figures?

The tide may have changed for the broad market. In fact I would love it if this drop persists. If not, we got no chance to enter, right? I am sure in the last rally, there are still many investors waiting in the sidelines but haven't entered.

If you want to enter a bullish position, my advice is to do a hedging by entering another bearish position. For me, I would still long some Good Stocks that are fundamentally strong. But I would hedge it with a Bearish Position on another weak counter too!

As I have also mentioned, April is earnings season month. Some of our focus will shift to how the companies are doing. At least the market may not drop that bad, if earnings of some major companies this season is good.

However my ADVICE is BE Careful when entering LONG position this month! Lower your position amount. It will not be as good a month to trade compared to Jan and Feb. 

Like what Mr Hu Li Yang mentions, we have 5-7 chances to make $ throughout the year. But I don't think April is not one of the months that can make you Big $!

Being Patient and Prudent is the Key Now!

Rgds
Daniel


Market Sentiment Indicator for 11 Apr

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 68.35% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)

(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)
2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 61.68% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 77.20% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(S&P500 Stocks has turned bearish)  

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 44.18%   (Bearish signal: Bear Alert on 7 Mar)
5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 87.65% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 5 Dec)
6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 83.33% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 11 Jan)


A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 
Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

Article by Mr Hu Li Yang: Oil Price below $110 胡立阳说油价会低过$110

缺乏实际需求 油价大涨不易      

还记得2008年7月,油价曾涨到每桶147美元天价的往事吗?当时,有鉴于石油供需完全正常,这么荒唐的油价当然不具备基本面的支撑,我因此独排众议的发表了“油价即将大崩盘”的论点。5个月之后,油价果然一路暴跌,最后是摔到33.5元。当初认为油价会攻上200元的人,想必个个都跌破了眼镜。

最近,2月份的纽约油价再度一举冲破了百元大关,目前在105~110之间居高不下,当然又有专家纷纷喊出了150~200元的吓人价位。一时之间,人心惶惶,大家又开始担心通胀要来了。
那么,这一次油价的上涨具备基本面的支撑吗?

首先,众所皆知,美国经济一直陷于胶着状态,复苏缓慢,而欧洲更因受到欧债风暴影响,不停地在衰退边缘挣扎,在低迷的氛围蔓延之下,连过去两、三年表现出色的亚洲经济也开始迅速降温。经济发展停滞,2012年全球石油的实需求量,势必将大幅减少,预期国际能源总署以及相关研究机构在几个月前所公布的油量需求成长数字也将跟着下修。

因此,我要说目前油价的上涨,与2008年的背景如出一辙,并非是由实质需求造成,大部分仍是由“零利率”时代所逼出的热钱投机炒作而成,这些时时刻刻都在蠢蠢欲动的热钱,这回显然是相中了伊朗局势动荡的话题,想要再创造出一波高油价的行情。只不过,金融风暴之后,包括对冲基金在内的许多投机资金,大都损失惨重,想要呼风唤雨的实力早已大不如前。

油价未来将何去何从?

油价的上涨,既非由基本面所造成,想要知道它的走势,至少在短在线,就需由技术面来探询:
2008年当油价开始由最高峰的147元下跌时,我即采用自己所发明的“二分之一”测底法,由上而下的先计算出它的合理价位是在73元(即147÷2),

而 底部区会在36元(即73÷2)以下。结果在2008年的12月底,油价果然是在33.5元触底。我在其后紧接着计算出反弹必定会来到73元的合理价位, 此后,任何因素再促使油价飙涨,会遇上的第一道重要关卡,改换成由下而上计算,将会是在110元,即(73+147)÷2。

因此,油价由上个月底到目前为止,每每触及110元时总像是碰到高压电线一样的立即回落,不是吗?

结论是,近期,110元仍是油价的天险难关。长期而言,由于缺乏实质强劲需求,油价根本不具备大涨的条件,即使涨过110元,上方空间也极为有限。

还在担心高油价会带来高通胀吗?我想,至少目前没有必要的。

Wednesday, 11 April 2012

It is a Hideous Day in WallStreet, Time to be careful in April while Focus change to Earnings

Dear Friends,

Dow Jones is down by 183 points now in mid day trading session. Nasdaq is now below 3000 points. Almost all sectors are in the Red. The market is dragged down by Europe as FTSE100 ended the day down 128 points, a 2.24% drop. And of course, Europe opens today after a 4 day rest. It was affected by the terrible Non Farm Payroll result.

Like I mentioned, there are 2 kinds of fundamental economical reports that drives the market direction. One is enterprise report, the other is Public report. Non farm is a public report. April market direction won't be good. My advise would be to cut down on the position size even if you want to enter.

In fact last month, on 10 March, I mentioned that there might be consolidation early April:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/03/good-non-farm-payroll-beat-expectations.html

This is my quote in the article:
"I expect this month, at some time the market will have a consolidation, may be in mid March, or beginning of April. Depending on any bad news that can create a small panic. But of course knowing the exact timing isn't easy. I always rely on my Market Sentiment Indicator of NYSE and S&P500 to tell me. Once it turns bearish, I would go bearish."

I know that RISK has been high after February, we just need a bad economical report to spark a consolidation. Well, this month Non farm payroll on Friday might be the spark.

My view is that this Month we need to be really careful. You may stay in the sideline if you can. Because, I think after today's fall, my Market Sentiment Indicator of NYSE might turn bearish. I need to check it at end of day though. If my NYSE market sentiment indicator goes bearish, I will start to look for bearish stocks. Time to MAKE BIG MONEY in shorting some stocks now! I would probably have a combination of Long and Short positions now!

Meaning for every stock that I long, I will have a short position to hedge.

However, as I also mentioned, this month is Earnings Season month. Likewise, Singapore companies are going to release their earnings this or next month. We will still have companies that beat earnings and gap up. So the impact of the broad market on individual stock might not be as bad.

Just that we need to be extra careful in our stock selection for this MONTH!

Best Regards
Daniel



Tuesday, 10 April 2012

Question on Apple Play before earnings

Question posted by a Friend:

Hi Daniel, what is the next target for Apple? What do you think?

Answer:

My near term target for Apple is $647, yes, just $10 away. Now the price is $636 at closing.
Will it breakthrough? Perhaps, but I would sell at $647 first. It needs to consolidate a while. At least for 1 or 2 days.

After it breaks $650, I would go in again.

However my STRATEGY for this stock is I would DEFINITELY sell before its earnings day. Now there hasn't been a confirmed date on earnings released date. Probably 24th or 26th April. Apple high chance will be shot down on earnings day.  Forget what the PRESS say about this stock. The more hype there is, the more the stock will gap down.

I have seen so many High Growth Stocks being shot down by Wall Street on earnings day and I have lost so much $ during the last few years that I know this time, Apple might not beat the expectations.

However, after earnings, it can be time to accumulate this stock again!

Rgds
Daniel

Market Sentiment Indicator for 10 Apr

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 72.77% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 7 Dec)
2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 63.65% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 81.40% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 5 Dec)   


4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 58.14%   (Bearish signal: Bear Alert on 7 Mar)
(Pls note that we give a BEARISH CALL on S&P 500 energy stocks at start of March. Now, they are falling like MAD! Avoid Energy stocks now!) 

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 87.65% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 5 Dec)
6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 83.33% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 11 Jan)

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 
 
Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

FED Smart move today stabilises the Market!

Dear Friends,

Now Dow is down 125 points and seems to be moving higher. A lot of US stocks gap down at the open and stabilizes too. Some great stocks like Apple and Priceline is back in the Green after gapping down at the open. Apple is running to NEW HIGH again! Mastercard is filling its gap down and near its high of $440 now.

Like what I mentioned in the last article, I think FED did an excellent job in revealing the Poor non farm payroll report on Friday, which happens to be a Holiday. This delayed action cools down the selloff impact. Today, I did not see any panic happening. Instead I see accumulation of some stocks before their earnings.

Studying the Options volatility, Apple Call and Bank of America Call showing great volatility, which means people are buying their calls anticipating a beat in earnings. My Apple call option increase so much in volatility even though the stock did not increase much today.

Hence I feel although the Non farm payroll report is a great disappointment, April is the month we start to focus on Earnings. We just need to pick stocks with excellent fundamentals so that we would not be hurt by any downfall in the market.

In the afternoon, I think more stocks will recover its loss gapping down. I sense today, some traders make use of the gap down to enter instead of exiting! 

If this upward momentum carries on till closing bell, 2moro US market has a Good chance of going up. Hence it is an opportunity to hold overnight position so that 2moro some stocks may gap up at the open

Daniel

Monday, 9 April 2012

Singapore Stock Tip: Noble going Down?

Hi friends,

STI down 25 points and currently trading at 2963. STI support level is 2936.

Technical view for Noble: See attached/below chart. Obviously it has broken below 1st level support and if you look at the chart it has forming a Descending Triangle pattern and this kind of pattern is for short-sell opportunity.

Example of trade plan:
Short-sell entry at 1.315
Cut-loss at 1.35
Cover short-sell position at 1.24

Above mentioned is our view and only CFD can be used for short-sell.

ARTeam KL


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Btw we will be conducting a FREE Seminar on Singapore Stocks

<<A.R.T. Traffic Light System: Using the system to predict where your stocks go accurately>>

On 12 Apr 2012, Thursday (English Seminar) or 13 Apr 2012, Friday (Chinese Seminar).

Do recommend your friends to this workshop!
Sharing on    1) An overall view of Technical Analysis strategies
                    2) A Traffic Light system revealed that teach you when to GO and STOP in trading
                    3) Market Outlook for March 2012
                    4) Traders' Habits
                    5) Individual Profile Diagnostic

Date: 12 Apr 2012, Thursday (English Seminar) or 13 Apr 2012, Friday (Chinese Seminar)
Time: 7pm – 10pm
Venue: 141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building #07-02 S(069541) Tanjong Pagar MRT Exit G, walk straight 80m, opposite the traffic light

Speaker: Andy Ong (ART system Founder)

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Radio FM958访谈 2018年11月15日:世界股市展望 - 现在是熊市吗?

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