Thursday, 27 September 2012

I like what I see in US today! It did not drop much when Europe tanks 1%

Dear Friends,

These few days drop did make me worry a bit. But I do like what I see in the US market today. Let me give you the reasons.

1) Yesterday Dow dropped by a triple digit which I always say is a confidence denter and I will look closely at how things react the next day. However today, Dow did not drop much, just 15 points which I consider mild after yesterday mild panic amid the Spain riot.

2) Today Europe drop 1.5% for FTSE index. Dax drop 2%. This is a considerable drop in Europe. To be honest, I anticipated Dow to drop another triple digit following Europe weakness. Yet, Dow seems resistant! to my surprise. So it indicates that market sentiment is still good, and not yet as bad.

Hence my conclusion is that for those who has stocks at hand, if your stop loss is not hit, probably there isn't any need to sell away first. As things are not that bad. In fact, I foresee there is a possibility 2moro Europe and US might close in the green.

But having said that, be careful in entering any positions. As next week is a week packed with major economical news which still has the capability to swing fortunes anytime.

For now, let us still maintain our positive stand until sentiment really changes...

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Ever wonder why Oil is decreasing? Duh...

Dear Friends,

Oil futures struggled to hold on to $90 a barrel Wednesday, less than two weeks after topping $100, under pressure from renewed euro-zone concerns and as a surprise decrease in inventories failed to lift prices.

It was reported in marketwatch:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-futures-drop-in-electronic-trade-2012-09-26

"Losses mounted as the session progressed, and the news from the Energy Information Administration was not enough to counter the fears of diminished demand for oil amid turmoil in Europe and concerns that the latest round of monetary stimulus in the U.S. might not be enough."

Well dear friends,

This drop in oil price was predicted. Easy play if you followed our call. Even Wall Street could not explain the drop.They thought it was high frequency trading fault. Even the supply assurance today did not help the drop. Why???

We explained a few days ago in this article, remember?

http://www.danielloh.com/2012/09/warning-do-not-touch-oil-and-energy.html

We mentioned that although there may be a temporary rebound in US energy and oil price. But it won't be long. Mid term trend is down. Grab your opportunity to short!

But please rest assured that it has not affected Singapore Energy Stocks like Ezion and Ezra. They are different.

What I meant is oil price and US energy stocks. And do not think that this is the lowest oil will be... w still think it has chance to drop some more... when energy stocks really turn bearish!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Wednesday, 26 September 2012

Congratulations if you follow our call on Ezion again! 15% ROI in 1 day!

Dear Friends,

A couple of days ago, we issued an article that Ezion has a barrier at $1.30. Indeed it stayed there for a few days without breaking that barrier. We also mentioned that if Ezion can get near $1.29, chances are high that it can break $1.30...

Check our article:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/09/singapore-stock-tip-ezion-barrier-at-130.html

Yesterday it reached that mark, $1.29. And indeed if you followed us on the call, at least you would have caught the breakout. Now the price is $1.33 - $1.335. Highest reached is $1.345.

If you are like one our Singapore Stock Course graduates, who went in yesterday at $1.29 for 10 lots, you would have made a $400 profit by exiting at $1.33 now...


With a 15% margin requirement using CFD, that is a 15.03% ROI in 1 day!

But of course this graduate has not exited. Like what I told the student, if you are greedy for more profits, you should put your stop loss now at breakeven, which is $1.30. Put your profit target at $1.465.... and go to sleep! Yes, $1.465 is my profit target! Even if it does not hit, you would have already protected your capital, for this trade, You would have achieved a no loss situation at most! Guarding our capital is the number 1 rule of a trader!


That is for greedy people like us, who are not satisfied with the 15% we achieved in 1 day! Do not feel sorry or blame us if you exit at $1.30 when you should be making $. This is disciplined trading! If you do not practise this simple technique, you might have been losing $$$ consistently. Do not blame anyone, but your lack of good money management practice all these years!

Btw, even if we exited at $1.30, we will enter when it comes back up to $1.32. A stock that has died never comes back up. If it comes back, it is about to retest its high.

If you are able to time your entry by pciking the right stock, and couple it with the correct money management skills, I really can't see you not making money in the stock market!


Some of you may have this question. But Daniel, how do you ensure that you time your entry and know which stock is about to run???

Well, come for our Singapore Stock Course this Thursday and Friday and we will share with you the SECRETS to MAKING $ in Singapore Stocks....

It really ain't tough!

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Magic of Picking the Right Stock in Singapore Market
如何选择对的新加坡股票
(plus a sharing revision of what Jim Rogers said about the stock market in Sharesinvestment Conference)

You shall learn

1) What is Jim Roger's View on Current Market
2) Timing your entry

3) The Magic of picking the right stock


Date: 27 Sep 2012, Thursday 7pm - 10pm    (English) or 
Date: 28 Sep 2012, Friday 7pm - 10pm   (Chinese 华文)
Speaker: Daniel Loh, Andy Yew, KL Wong

Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


Cost: Free

To register pls click here 
or SMS  to 93676623 <Name><Hp><Email><Date><Seats>


 

For those playing Gold, do take note that Mr Hu Li Yang thinks gold run has ended with a high of $1923.70 one year ago

Dear Friends,

Will Gold price ever hit $1923.70 again, now that QE3 expectation already gone? This is a chart for your reference...



In a triple top box pattern now. Asian Leading Investment Guru Mr Hu Li Yang does not think it has the strength anymore and he may be right.

We think any upside is limited even if it exceeds that highest mark.

Long term wise, please avoid it, say no to MLM companies making money by asking you to join their business buying gold. We have seen many closed down in Malaysia and Singapore whenever gold price sinks by 10%. Recently I have heard a Singapore company turning hot again... sigh. Sometimes they have no intention of deceiving. It is just that when market is uncertain, a panic will cause a lot of people to cash out, suddenly forcing the company to run out of cash.

So if you think of joining them, be extra careful. Don't be the next Sunshine Empire or Lehman Brothers! If you know what I meant ;).

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

It is not a good afternoon in the US today amid riot in Spain

Dear Friends,

Yesterday in Spain there is a social riot in the streets. This tension has led to the Dow crumpling down 85 points now into the red when it started beautifully. As I have said in the last article, Dow is not in the panic stage. But neither is it able to close confidently higher these few days... in fact quite a few stocks today dropped to close in the red...

So my suggestion is not to enter first b4 next week important reports. Short term wise, market is not there. At least I can't sense it these few days in US.

So better to careful and cut down on your position size even if you enter.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Tuesday, 25 September 2012

Market Sentiment Indicator for 25 Sep

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 70.77% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 3 Jul)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bullish)


2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 59.35% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 5 Jul)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 79.00% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 18 Jun)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 97.78%  
(Bullish signal: Bull Alert 13 Sep)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)

This has to drop as it can't reach 100%, just be careful...

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 80.25% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 22 Aug)
(Energy Sector has changed sentiment to bullish)


6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 70.89% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 27 Jul)

(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bullish)
 
 
The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

亚洲股市教父 胡立阳: 股市才是经济的火车头

2012年09月07日09:16 腾讯财经
 
由于我先前曾提出“欧债问题只是2008年美国金融大地震的延伸,它只是余震”的论点。因此,最近常被问到:为什么美国的经济反而能甩开欧债的纠缠,持续且平稳的在复苏之中?更奇怪的是,华尔街股市是否过度反应了成长缓慢的经济?它竟然率先回到了金融风暴前的高档。

我简单回答:一直以来,华尔街的股市都是在扮演着拯救美国经济的角色。

大多数人都认定,除非经济转好,否则股市绝无希望。也就是说,股市是被经济牵着鼻子走的,它只不过是反映经济的一面橱窗而已。

但根据我过去三十多年来在工作中的实际观察,股市总是在景气仍然一片低迷或是混沌未明时,至少提前六个月,便节节上升,然后慢慢的,各项经济数据才会一一开始止跌反弹。这说明了,股市才是拖动经济的火车头,必须先有出色的股市行情才接着会有象样的经济表现,不要本末倒置了! 

我的这种论点,总是会把一些顶尖的经济学家给气坏了,但这确是事实。

2008年9月雷曼公司倒闭,为了防范经济受到伤害,美国率先采取低利率政策,大幅度宽松货币,希望因此能拯救投资与消费。 只不过我担心,再多的资金如果没有跑到该去的地方,只会更加恶化全球热钱泛滥的问题,无异于饮鸩止渴。我认为,市场缺的不是资金,而是信心。所以,光靠降 息绝对无法快速刺激消费,增加生产。反而是,如果能先稳定股市,经济问题才能慢慢迎刃而解。因为,对已如惊弓之鸟的大众而言,只有在欣欣向荣的股市中,让 他们真正又开始赚到钱了,才能治愈忧郁症,才能拾回信心,也才能再度燃起他们的消费及投资意愿。

结果,美联储在施行了QE1、QE2 等一连串的量化宽松政策之后,竟然是歪打正着,庞大的资金虽没有如愿的引进生产事业,但却无心插柳的刺激了华尔街股市,而欣欣向荣的股市又强力挺住了原本摇摇欲坠的美国经济。

这证明了我的观点是正确的!影响经济兴衰的是股市,股市才是真正的火车头!

你一定有满腹的疑问,倘若是在正常的情况之下,经济还在探底阶段,股市要靠谁来拉拔呢?

在华尔街,当股价反应过度,暴跌到一定程度,无论是散户或是股东大户,都会心疼到卖不下手,接着就会微妙的产生出与股票共存亡的决心。同时,早已不满股价偏低的公司,纷纷宣布将开始逢低买回自家股票做为库存。紧接着,IPO以及增资的申请自然也会随之减少。卖盘逐渐缩手,买盘开始增加,股市筹码的供需终于平衡,就会出现跌不下去的现象了!这说明了股市由底部出现绝地反弹的第一阶段,纯粹是技术性的跌深反弹,完全不用靠经济来催生,股市也永远是走在经济前面的!

对于这种非关基本面因素,而纯为技术性的跌深反弹,我为它发明了一个名词叫做“无基之弹”。事实证明,“无基之弹”常是股市否极泰来、由熊转牛的开始。其实,2008年金融海啸之后,全球股市由熊转牛的过程就是最经典的范例。

因此,投资者并非要苦等到全球经济确定没有问题,或是去猜测股市底部的确实点位,而是要耐心的等待股市中一些具备意义的拐点讯号出现,然后以分批买进的方式,慢慢且安心的进场!

以下是我长期观察全球12个主要新兴股市,过去20年来由熊转牛所常依序出现的五项初期征兆,提供大家作个参考:

1、行情对利空反应迟钝,对利好响应热烈。
2、指数上涨,无论是天数或是点数,都开始出现涨多跌少现象。
3、指数的10日以及10周移动平均线相继翻上。
4、指数由底部反弹30%。
5、指数的月线图出现连三红。

王冠一錦囊: 量宽推动 金市屠熊

上月20日以「金价整固、后市看升」为题,指金价已成功筑底,蓄势待升。当时金价仍处于1,620美元以下,事隔1个月再作回顾,该篇文章刚好赶及迎接今次金市升浪,金价于周三最高触及1,779.3美元,不足1个月时间升幅接近1成,所作推介亦算是一阵及时雨。
当 日文章指出,利好金价的因素包括:不少央行包括俄罗斯、乌克兰、哈萨克及土耳其等央行均宣布提升黄金于外汇储备中的比重、欧洲国民买金作为欧债危机避风 港、持有黄金因利率低而成本大减,而环球天气反常,旱灾与涝灾处处,令农作物失收,糎价飞升,让黄金得以发挥抗通胀功能等,更以索罗斯和约翰保尔森大举增 持,加强大家对金价后市的信心。

现时的客观形势对金价后市更加有利,因为在踏入9月后,不少主要央行均相继启动印钞机。欧洲央行于9月初率先宣布无限量购买已申援财困成员国的国债,其后中国发改委批出规模合共1万亿人民币基建项目,联储局又拍板加推QE3,每月购买400亿美元按揭抵押证券(MBS),直至就业市场显著改善。最新加入量宽合唱团的是日本央行,把购买资产规模由70万亿日圆增至80万亿。

在8月31日伯南克于央行年会进一步暗示会加推QE3前,金价仍处于1,650美元附近,踏入9月后一帖又一帖的兴奋剂,又如何不令金市投资者亢奋若狂?以周三的高位计算,金价9月已累升5%,今年升幅超过13%。在各国争相印钞刺激经济的大环境下,金价于最后1季仍是易升难跌,把升浪延伸至12年的机会甚大,即使能突破去年9月纪录高位的1,921.15美元,亦不会令人惊讶。根据往绩,联储局于2008年12月至2011年6月推行两轮QE,把资产负债表扩大2.3万亿美元期间,金价涨幅达70%;今次是无上限QE3,即使边际效应大打折扣,但再加上其他央行大合奏,「金市屠熊」这出好戏,估计不会那么快便落幕。

事实上,不少投资者和大行亦睇好金价后市。《彭博社》最新调查显示,受访29名分析师中,有15人预测金价下周续扬,估金价会跌及持中性看法的各有7人,反映金价连续第18周备受睇好。对冲基金押注金价升的注码为半年新高,投资者今季购买的交易所相关黄金产品(ETP)亦是逾两年最多。

美银于周二发表报告,称联储局的量宽持续的话,金价明年次季可升抵2,000美元,明年年底可触及2,400美元。德银同日报告亦预测金价明年上半年可高见2,000美元,大摩预金价明年平均价为1,816美元,渣打亦预期明年次季金价平均价为1,900美元,可见市场对金市牛气冲天的看法,不谋而合。

由7月起计,投资者透过ETP买入了11.5吨黄金,是2010年次季后最多,所持黄金于9月19日为破纪录的2,519吨,总值高达1,430亿美元。约翰保尔森于次季提升SPDR Gold Trust持有量26%,索罗斯更倍增其持有量,估计可食正今次升浪,成为大赢家。

虽然印度次季黄金入口下降了56%,但踏入婚嫁及宗教节日高峰期,实质需求仍可为金价升势增加上升动力。央行大举印钞,货币贬值的恐惧,将令黄金的储存价值(store of value)及抵御通胀功能得以尽情发挥。逆势沽金,有如担沙塞海,只会成为大鳄的点心,非智者所应为。

The market is telling me things are not as bullish anymore!

Dear Friends,

As a trader, we need to be sensitive to the market sentiment. Currently, the market is not as good to trade as 2-3 weeks ago amid the QE expectations anymore. There is a consolidation to some of the stocks.

But there is also no panic yet in the market. I would probably cut down on my positions and control my lot size unless I see a clear direction ahead of next week.

Next week is the big week as big reports in US will be released on Monday and Friday. Monday there is the ISM report which indicates how the enterprise are doing and Friday will be the non farm payroll. Do bear in mind that in September, the non farm payroll report is a disaster! In september, the market is abnormal as bad reports meant the likelihood of QE.

Do not expect the market to be as forgiving this month! Any shortfall will cause the market to drop this time...

So it pays to be extra careful this month about the reports next week. But if the reports are good, the market will also give us the extra push after these few days pause.

To summarise things up, I still can't see the hype about the stock market. Neither do I see any panic now. I would be extra careful in picking my stocks should I want to enter now. Cut down on my positions too or stay in the sideline is my strategy now!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Monday, 24 September 2012

Singapore Stock Tip: Ezion barrier at $1.30

Dear Friends,

It is no coincidence that we mentioned our darling Ezion will have difficulty getting past $1.30 on 10th September.

Look at our article:
http://www.danielloh.com/search?updated-max=2012-09-12T03:33:00%2B08:00&max-results=30

On Wed, Ezion did indeed reached a high of $1.30 on 19th September. Today it is $1.255 now.  These few days it did struggle to go past $1.30. In fact, someone asked me what to do with this company at $1.30. I say sell away first.

Do remember that it is all time high and there aren't any reference for us. But how do we know there is a resistance at $1.30. Well, the thing is we have generated a set of figures called the "LAW of Gravity of Price" whereby without looking at the charts, there are a set of figures where there is a strong support and resistance. $1.30 happens to be one of them. Stocks will struggle at this figure.

So what do we now for this stock?

Well, my suggestion is let it rest a bit. Watch the stock when it is back up at $1.29...

If it comes back, there is a high chance this time it will break $1.30. I will be studying carefully to see if it is supported by professional money before entering.

We would be issuing our view if we think it has consolidated and about to run.

Good luck trading Singapore stocks.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Friday, 21 September 2012

FREE Investment Seminar by Daniel Loh


<<Secrets of the US stock market & How it affects Singapore market>>
- How will the Stock market be after QE3?

You shall learn

1) US market important economical reports and implications
2) Outlook of Singapore and US market
3) How to profit in the stock market in 2nd half of the year
4) An easy way to pick the right stocks

Date: 25 Sep 2012, Tues 7pm - 10pm    (English) or
Date: 26 Sep 2012, Wed 7pm - 10pm   (Chinese)
Speaker: Daniel Loh

Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623
 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


 《美国股市的秘密 他如何影响新加坡股市》
-  QE3过后,股市的方向是什么?

为什么美国经济报告会影响全球股市
新加坡股市和美国股市的展望
如何下半年股市获利
一个投资股票的简单方式

日期:925(星期二,· 英文讲座)      926(星期三,· 华文讲座)
时间:晚上7 10
讲员:  Daniel Loh
 
地点:141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building
#07-02 S(069541),

丹戎巴葛地铁站G出口,· 直走80米,· 红绿灯对

如想报名,请点 here 
或 SMS <名><Email><手机><日期><多少席位> 到 93676623


曾淵滄專欄 2012 09 21: 复苏力度主宰商品

两周前,欧洲开始印钞票;一周前,美国印钞票;前天,日本也印钞票。大家一起印钞票,商品价格会不会大升?
 
我认为还不能肯定。商品分为两类,一类是纯粹用来炒卖的,如黄金;另一类是有实际用途的,如石油、煤、铜、铁等。黄金没有多大的实际用途,最重要的用途是炒卖,我对黄金没甚么研究,不敢评论。
 
而资源类商品因为有实际用处,其价格受到真正需求影响。因此,全球经济会否因印钞票而复苏,以及何时复苏,才是推动商品价格的最有力因素。
 
尽管欧央行放水,但德国仍要求希腊、西班牙、意大利等国节衣缩食,整个欧洲的消费依然疲弱,对商品的实际需求不高。
 
A股何时见底成谜
 
沪综指2000点到底守不守得住,没人知道。昨日沪综指再度落至2000点边缘,再跌1.2%就会跌破这个心理关口。过去一年,许多人为A股寻底、捞底,皆亏钱离场,A股底在何处的确是个谜。
 
A股寻底打乱了港股上升的大好形势,昨日恒指回吐幅度不小,达1.2%。
 
不过,QE3推出后,四个交易日恒指最高上升了4.2%,速度太快,调整也应该。经过昨日的调整,一周之内,恒指还是上升了2.7%,后市依然乐观。
 
新世界(017)创办人郑裕彤入院,但昨日股价不过跌了1.8%,跌幅并不比其他地产股大。蓝筹地产股中表现最好的信置(083)也跌1.5%,恒地(012)跌幅更高达3.5%。
 
新世界的表现在恒指成份股的地产股里还算不错,表现仅比信置与长实(001)差一些。

Who says we are bearish now?

Dear Friends,

I have a friend who posted me a question when she saw her stock dropped in one day. I am surprised that some of us think that the market is bearish. At this moment, I have not seen the panic yet. The bullishness is intact.

Let me indicate to you what I might think as a slightly bearish scenario, one that may cause me to take note.

1) Dow decrease by a triple digit and close at a low (prepare to sell)
2) Dow falls by 2 days with each day closing at low (might sell liao)
3) Dow drops by 3 consecutive days in a row (prepared to enter when selling panic subsides if I think mid term still bullish)

That is an easy way how I gauge the market sentiment. Today, I can't see DOW falling much. Dow falls and gaps down with the stocks at the opening bell because of bad economical report from China and the jobless claims. But it recovered beautifully when the manufacturing Philly FED beats expectation. It shows 2 things here. 

First, there isn't any need to press the panic button, not by the recovery we have today.

2nd is that now that the QE3 thingy is over, market has returned to its normal status where bad economical reports are no longer good for the market. Bad are bad now, and it will cause the market to drop. So shift our eyes back to the jobs status and enterprise output and earnings reports next month!

In fact I treat this slight pause as a good bullish signal. The bullish vehicle can't go on without resting at the pit stop! The bull can't go on without worry!

Don't worry when your Singapore stock falls by 1 cent! Hold it still....

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com



Energy Sector has staged a temporarily comeback today

Dear Friends,
 
After a few days consecutive drop, I must say today this sector regained its composure with grace. Energy sector ETF, XLE gaps down at the open and close midday at a high. This is a temporary bullish signal.

Do take note that we remain bearish on this sector midterm. But as oil has dropped almost $10 in 4 days, there may be a slight pause or recovery. So in the meantime, let it recover.

Find opportunity in future to short the sector when it does...

Rgds
Daniel

Thursday, 20 September 2012

Warning! Do not touch US Oil and Energy Stocks from now on!

Dear Friends,

Did you remember that we posted an article mentioning that Energy sector in US is going down on 5th Sep?

http://www.danielloh.com/2012/09/it-is-official-that-energy-sector-has.html

We said it because our market sentiment indicator on Energy stocks has turned bearish.

However because of the hype of QE, this action is delayed. Oil price and Energy stocks continued to march higher after a pause.

BUT 3 days ago, oil reached a high of $100.

Today, the world is baffled why oil price dropped so fast in these 3 trading days after that. Wall Street could not give an explanation and reasons for the drop... not when middle east still got problems. CNBC is blaming it on high frequency trading. That is such a pathetic reason, sigh...

Below is an article by yahoo stating the "REASONS" for the drop... in fact nobody knows y! Not when we have QE3 right? Shouldn't inflation expectation and the speculation money push oil higher? Wall Street could not find explanations

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oils-slide-continues-crude-below-152720718.html?l=1

Today I am going to reveal to you the reason y Wallstreet don't know.

It is because Wall Street did not study our blog lah... haha ;). If they studied, they might be hedging by shorting energy stocks.

Ha, the real reason is that most of the Energy stocks in US are bullish, in fact 3 days ago, it reached a high of 97% of stocks being bullish, which is too overbought!!!

I know you may think with these 3 days drop, these stocks may come back up again. Temporarily yes they may, after the sharp drop in oil price and the stocks these few days. But I would probably take the opportunity to short it mid term everytime if it does rebound up.

Do not take the risk now... Energy sector may have reached its height. If you are not shorting, please just stay away for the time being!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Wednesday, 19 September 2012

It is raining money with Japan having a QE also!

Dear Friends,

What a day in the gold and silver market again with news that Japan also joined in the fun to participate in the QE party. Now 3/4 largest economies have all announced printing of money... US, Europe(considered one large economy), Japan the latest one to announce.

Attached is an article regarding the Japan's QE.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-japan-adds-to-stimulus-after-fed-2012-09-19

Now the only significant economy that have not announced is China. We shall see whether China will do it in the next few months.

If China did print money, probably the world will be flooded again with cash galore... and property prices would not go down still. If China did print money, I would predict Shanghai composite will start to run again and get out of their doldrums. Those companies that are listed in Singapore and doing business with China like Yanlord, Capitaland or Noble may also start to run. Let us stay tune to see if that happens...

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com


Market Sentiment Indicator for 19 Sep

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 71.08% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 3 Jul)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bullish)


2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 58.71% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 5 Jul)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 79.40% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 18 Jun)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 97.78%  
(Bullish signal: Bull Alert 13 Sep)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)

This has to drop as it can't reach 100%, just be careful...

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 81.48% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 22 Aug)
(Energy Sector has changed sentiment to bullish)


6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 70.89% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 27 Jul)

(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bullish)
 
 
The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

Tuesday, 18 September 2012

A Pause is Good for the Stock Market

Dear Friends,

If you are worried whether the stock market is going down after the super rally last week, our advise is you probably do not have to worry. For the mid term, 1-2 months, we still expect the bullish momentum to continue. Afterall our market sentiment indicator still shows bullishness in th estock market.

But having said that, I would probably like to see a bit of pause in the stock market. A few down days would be nice for this bullishness to continue. In fact, the faster the stock market runs, the faster it ends. What I would to see in the market is a bit of worry and anxiety coming back. That would make the stock market go further.

Remember that "A Market without worry is a worry for the Bulls". The market badly needs a pause. And yesterday Monday, Dow Jones indeed goes down 40 points. Now STI is also down 7 points. Quite good, not a bad drop. My alarm will sound if Dow drops by a triple digit figure, more than 100 points.

Now that the QE3 expectation has gone, I encourage all to go back to basics. And basic means looking at economical reports. For the past few months, bad results mean good as we expect QE3 to arrive. Now probably no longer so. If next month's job reports continue to be bad, expect the backlash. Btw, I expect november and december jobs number to be good because of holiday season.

Next month 11 October marks the start of the earnings season for American stocks. Do take note that our focus will shift to how the individual stocks are performing.

I would like to end by mentioning what Mr Hu Li Yang has mentioned in the sharesinvestment conference held over the weekend. He said that "Now we have entered into the 2nd half of the bull run, we really need to spend time picking the right stocks." Treat this earnings season a way to get rid of the bad performing stocks in your portfolio.

Regards
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

曾淵滄專欄: 炒落後股要做功課

中日关系越来越紧张,中国渔船千帆并举,驶向钓鱼岛,结果是A股大跌,沪综指收市跌2.13%,更一度连累恒指也跟着跌,幸好,QE3的影响力仍在,恒指一倒跌,便马上吸引好友入市,最后微升0.14%。QE3对两类股有利,一类是能很明显看到好处的强势股,另一类是可以博一博的落后股。

强势股可敲港交所
强势股包括港交所(388),及三家香港的发钞银行汇控(005)、渣打(2888)及中银香港(2388)。
QE3每月印400亿美元,其中一部份一定会流入香港炒股票,港交所的生意会大幅增长,不用多久,新股上市会再度热闹,港交所自然是大赢家,三家发钞银行都可以说是国际银行,尽管汇控已淡出美国的按揭市场,但身为国际银行,一定能在全球钞票大量增加的情况之下得益。
应感谢不久前纽约州的金融局说要控告渣打,使到包括我在内的一些股民有机会以低价买到渣打股票,中银香港为香港人民币的结算中心,QE3所产生的热钱也一定有兴趣染指人民币市场。现在,人民币与美元之间的息差非常大,足以吸引大量的息差投机交易。
至于炒落后股,则得十分小心,一定得花些时间研究一下是不是值得炒,是炒翻身还是炒股价太贱太残?胡乱跟风随时会遇上只能炒一天的垃圾股,暂时仍未进入垃圾股可以鸡犬升天的时候。
炒落后不必心急,每天花一些时间,仔细地阅读一些股评人的推介,然后自己想一想有没有道理,道理必须与QE3有关,而不是翻炒再翻炒甚么扩大内需、增加基建、美元贬值这类旧概念,因为这些旧概念已经使到不少股民在去年高价入市,市场内有大量蟹货等着消化。

品中资 [罗国森]: 有iPhone5但没有QE5!

本来要继续品评内银股的,但上周四联储局终于推出QE3,因此,今明两次想
先品评一下QE3对投资的影响,下星期再续内银股的品评。
近几年,主要电子消费品都流行一至两年就升级(甚至更短时间),而每一代的新产品都会
在型号后面加上一个数字。
上周苹果公司的新一代智能电话,就已经升级至第五代,所以,大家就叫她做iPhone
5。不过,消息正式出来的时候,市场的共识是,iPhone 5欠缺惊喜,好像唯一的「革新」就是手机尺寸加长了和变薄了。
但另一边厢,同样是万众期待的QE3,即「第三代」的量化松货币政策,就带给市场一点
惊喜,因为美国联储局今次的买债方案是不设期限,即是很有弹性,可以按照需要加码或随时停止。
按联储局这次举动,我和所有分析都认为,这是一次「尽地一煲」的行动,大有不达目标,
誓不罢休的气势。即是说,如果经济不复苏,就业市场不改善,她是会不计后果地继续买债(主要后果是其他国家承担),务求不断提供流动性予金融体系,以便长中短期的利率都会持续低企,目前估计,至少会维持至2015年年底。
如果是这样的话,我相信无需再有QE4,或者QE5了,所以,我今日的标题是「有
iPhone 5没有QE5!」这是有道理的,因为QE始终不是电子消费品嘛!
第一代QE,即QE1,是在2008年11月公布的,直到2010年3月结束,联储局
合共购入1﹒725万亿美元的按揭抵押债券、企业债和国债,期间道指升了29%;恒指同期则升了66%。要注意的是,2008年11月几乎是环球市场在金融海啸后的最低位,加上各
大央行齐齐连手推QE,股市上升是很自然的事。
  
*OT是改良版的QE*
 
当QE1的「药力」减退后,经济又再沉寂下去,联储局唯有在2010年11月再推出
QE2,直到2011年6月结束,期间买入了9000亿美元的国债,期间道指升了10%左右,而恒指则倒跌了10%!要补充的是,QE2结束之后,2011年9月联储局曾推出改良版的QE,就好像iPhone4之后,苹果公司推出了一个过渡性的产品
iPhone 4S,不过,这个改良版的QE不是叫QE2S,而是叫OT
(Operation Twist),一般译作「扭曲操作」。
  
*不结束就不会有负面影响*
   
OT的「药力」比QE温和,因为OT只是联储局刻沽出短债而买入长债,对联储局的资产
负债表来说并没有加大规模,只不过是债券的年期不同,用意是尽量压低长期利率。这项措施本来到今年6月结束,后来延期至今年年底。而今次联储局也特别提到,OT是会按计划,直到今年底才结束。
在OT这一年间(去年9月至今年初8月底),道指升了13%,而恒指则微跌了2%,明
显地,无论美国是推QE还是OT,对美股刺激作用是远大于港股。这次QE3又如何?
对上两次的QE和OT,都有一个清晰的结束时间表,这对于金融市场来说,当QE或OT
开始时,无疑会为金融市场带来正面刺激作用,但当操作快要结束时(因为大家都知道何时结束),也会对金融市场带负面影响。因此,这次联储局索性不给予时间表,总之,经济不改善,就业市场没起色,就继续买债!
因此,我相信,今次QE3应该可以继续带动美股和港股反复造好,尤其是最初几个月,但
效力始终是美股大一点,那么,本地投资者应该如何是好呢,下次再续。

Monday, 17 September 2012

Summary of what Mr Hu Li Yang/ Prof Zeng/ Jim Rogers/ Mike Bellafiore have said in next article

Dear Friends,

It has been a great 2 weeks of Sharesinvestment Conference. We, Raffles Business International is very honored to be the media partner of Sharesinvestment. Btw, we will giving a brief summary on what the 4 gurus have said and do stay tune to our updates...

We will have a Free Revision on the event, and by joining, you stand a chance to win a Free ipad too.

Look out on our website for more info!

Rgds
Daniel

Sunday, 16 September 2012

Our Market Sentiment Indicator indicates we might go into an overdrive soon!

Dear Friends,

If you have been following our posts regularly, you would have found out that we have been bullish ever since June. Indeed, 4 months on, we have to say we have really seen a bullish run towards election as predicted. Our market sentiment indicator has served us well for the past 2 years and judging by the look of things, we may go on for another 2-3 months after which we really need to be careful.

Correction is on the way perhaps 2-3 months later. The situation is that NYSE 3000 stocks have been in the overbought region. My guess is it would be continuing the overbought situation for 1-2 months. Nasdaq stocks have proved this year to lag behind NYSE stocks. Nasdaq might (a guess) turn bearish in 2-3 months.

It has always been this case about the market! Just when the market rejoice about QE3 aftereffects, and stock market has risen to a height, a bearish turn will pop up one day. The thing is 99% of people buying stocks don't have an idea when it will strike. Today I am giving you the estimated time for you to take as reference. It will also depend on the speed of the bullishness...

But do take note that I am not asking all to be bearish now! It would be stupid to short stocks and index as this train goes on super high speed! Go with the trend and flow! Ride on the wave. This is often the point where contrarians also get killed. Who said trading is easy... Trading is tough because we need to shoose when to be a trend follower or a contrarian. It is still a bit early to short the market.

But the time when Obama gets elected is the time to be wary! It may be December or January. I predict the latest is Feb. That may be the point where NYSE might start to turn bearish and a sign of trend changing.

Keep a lookout on our market sentiment indicator. Once our alarms sound, that is the time to get out. In the meantime, let us chase some stocks higher and celebrate with the market!!! This is one last time we can be bullish!!!

Rgds
Daniel

Market Sentiment Indicator for 16 Sep

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 70.69% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 3 Jul)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bullish)


2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 58.51% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 5 Jul)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 79.00% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 18 Jun)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 97.78%  
(Bullish signal: Bull Alert 13 Sep)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)

This has to drop as it can't reached 100%, just be careful...

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 81.48% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 22 Aug)
(Energy Sector has changed sentiment to bullish)


6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 70.89% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 27 Jul)

(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bullish)
 
 
The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector


A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

Friday, 14 September 2012

Timing is Everything in Singapore Market!

Dear Friends,

I heard that some friends have said that Singapore Market is so unpredictable because it follows so many countries direction. There is US market affecting the opening. Hong Kong affecting 1/2 hour later. Then Europe in the afternoon session at 3pm.

I would say it is true that Singapore sometimes are pushed around. But this is the amazing benefit also! Treat this as a strategy you can bet on, MARKET TIMING!

As an example, yesterday we have a great news that probably we have not expected, QE3. It can be other good news apart of QE. Take note that QE is the extreme case.

My strategy would be to get in the morning session at the open because Hong Kong open half an hour later will push the stocks forward. You can even sell intraday if you have made some $. Bear in mind that a lot of us lose money at the open because stocks have already gapped up. Even tough Hong Kong market did push Singapore stocks further, upside is limited! You need to be fast on this timing.

But the real thing comes with the Europe opening at 3pm. The best timing I think for Singapore market to get in is after lunch, when market has consolidated. As you would expect Europe open to push the momentum upwards again. And you have time to do your homework and browse through which are the stocks that have gapped up but dies a bit in the morning session. Get in before the Europe opens.

If you are experienced and familiar with US market, sometimes I would predict what will happen in US market tonight. Park your positions before the closing bell to expect the stock market to gap up in the morning after a good run in the US market.

Btw, if you want to know more about US market and its Secrets, come for our seminar ;), hehe.

Singapore market because of its delicate nature to other markets, it really requires our traders to be more experienced in market timing and understanding of other markets... tough job right? Ha, PM Lee once said we need to be a roly-poly 不倒翁 because of our small country. That is true, but it has worked so well for us because of the flexibility and adaptability also, right?!

Good luck trading!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

QE3 Hooray in Wallstreet! But how good will it be for the economy?

Dear Friends,

I think this is the last straw Ben Bernanke pulled out of his hat. He definitely did his best to help Obama's election! Well, he is employed by the president, right?

The central bank said it would purchase $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities every month until the labor market improves. The Federal Open Market Committee also said it would likely keep the federal funds rate near zero through at least the middle of 2015.

$40 billion per month with no duration said, seems like what Europe also promised last week, as Mario also said "unlimited" bond buyback... I think both have them seem to have the same thinking.

I think Ben Bernanke play this game very well today. Who knows what will happen when Obama gets reelected? This is probably the only way of not injecting too much cash to increase inflation and satisfy the public and Wallstreet thirst for a QE3. Isn't it better than promising $600billion across 2 years?

The funny thing is that whether it is $600billion across 2 years or $40billion per month with no duration is the same money spent! Just that people like the latter. The word "UNLIMITED" with no dateline sounds infinite! This market is tricked again....ha... SHREWD Bernanke wins the day again... this guy is smart, no doubt!

I have been talking about how clever this guy is, he is one good Wallstreet trader, understand the market psychology so well!

The thing is what is our gameplan now?

 I have been talking about the gameplan all week, and everything so far has gone according to plan.

1) The Silver and Gold ETF did indeed burst forward and climbs higher into the day. So this is definitely one instrument you can look at...

2) I mentioned that the most direct beneficiary of the $$$ is the banks! See how Bank of America and JP Morgan is surging... Now Bank of America is shooting past $9, moving towards $10...

3) With these 2 countries, US and Europe pumping tons and tons of $$$ into the stock market, we really expect the stock market to be booming into year end! Mid term wise, any drop should be taken as opportunity to enter!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Btw we will be talking about how this QE3 will affect currency....Do come to our Forex class next week to learn the secrets of Currency trading!

Up Coming Free FOREX introductory Seminar! 基础外汇课程

Learn from Forex Specialist Lionel Liew about how to invest and earn a stable income from Forex
 
You shall learn

1) Basics of Forex
2) How to generate a passive income form it
3) Does indicators work in FOREX
4) Money management practices needed in Forex

Date: 18 Sep 2012, Tuesday 7pm - 10pm    (English) or 
Date: 19 Sep 2012, Wednesday 7pm - 10pm   (Chinese 华文)
 
Speaker: Lionel Leow

Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


To register pls click here 
or SMS  to 93676623

Thursday, 13 September 2012

Up Coming Singapore Stock Seminar! 新加坡股票课程!



Up Coming Seminar!

Heard what Jim Rogers and Mike Bellafiore have said about the Market? Let us share with you what is our view on the current market!

You shall learn

1) What is the Guru's View on Current Market
2) Outlook of Singapore and US market
3) How to profit in the stock market in 2nd half of the year
4) A strategy to know the direction of the market this month instantly

Date: 13 Sep 2012, Thursday 7pm - 10pm    (English) or 
Date: 14 Sep 2012, Friday 7pm - 10pm   (Chinese 华文)
Speaker: Daniel Loh, Andy Yew, KL Wong

Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


To register pls click here 
or SMS  to 93676623

Radio FM958访谈 2018年11月15日:世界股市展望 - 现在是熊市吗?

·         美国 股市担心苹果业绩,巴菲特却大胆投资! 道琼斯昨晚闭市在 25080 ,掉了 205 点。在这 10 月 11 月道琼斯的波动都相当大。有很多投资朋友开始怀疑熊市是不是已经来临了。我的答案是还没有。这个跌幅反而是好时机进场。大家不用太担心。 ...