Friday, 30 November 2012

Controversy is what makes the market! Will Fiscal be solved? Yes, no, maybe...

Dear Friends,

It seems tiring to guess whether there will be an agreement before the end of the year. All I know is market continue to function and Dow Jones has advanced from 12500 to 13000 these 9 days. We are just  600 points away from breaking 5 year high.

All I know is Yoma and Ezion will still go up after consolidation. All I know is Apple and Facebook are some of the stocks to watch this christmas season. All I know is that US tech sector, retail sector, and travelling industry are the sectors to watch these 2 months. All I know is that putting your money on buying strong earnings stocks are what makes you money.

Perhaps I simply do not need to listen to every news about Fiscal Cliff. Perhaps I do not need to listen to Republicans or Democrats debating about it.

Maybe I should just do what I do everyday, which is to stick to my strategy that has all along work for Me.

If you think you are confused by all these talk about whether there will be a resolution, yes, no, or maybe before christmas, you may want to shut your ears to it and stick to what makes you money.

By the way, just for your info, the market actually went up 1500 points from june to september when we are also debating about whether there will be QE3. Yes, no or maybe.... so so confusing.

Just in case you do not know it, this is the stock market! They are made to create controversies in your decisions. CNBC is the most popular investment show because the hosts are made to debate with each other. You simply got to adapt to this stock market drama or JUST DON'T CARE

Thursday, 29 November 2012

Singapore Stocks that are on our watchlist now (publish on 29 Nov 11.02am)

1) Ezion - anticipate to make a run till 1.47-1.5

2) Supergroup - expect resistance at 3.3 now, see if it drop, if it drop somemore might pick up. if it goes up to 3.33, might buy in upon 3.3 breakout

3) Yoma - consolidating, i just need a good up day to tell me if it might run past 0.7... and there is a good chance it will

4) Biosensors - resistance at 1.17- 1.2, not much upside now, but it is in my watchlist. Look for consolidation and watch to pounce

5) Yanlord - anticipate a run till 1.47- 1.5, today at 1.42

Do remember ur money management! All these stocks have strong sales/ earnings or strong forward earnings expectation to sustain their run. All can be our focus this quarter. Not for contra trading. If it does not go according to what we want, do prepared to hold. The good thing is that these stocks can hold a while because of fundamental story.

"Fundamental drive the direction of a stock price. Technical only provides the entry and exit" - Daniel

Obama says "he wants a deal by Christmas" lifts the market

Dear Friends,

I believe his words. I think so should you. Each time the market drops a bit, I feel that it is good to accumulate some stocks. I know it seems confusing that everyday there seems to be some politicians positive and negative about it. Forget about the confusion. Just know that the deal will be out before year end. If you dont buy stocks at any drop, I am afraid there might not be much chance after the deal is out.

Today Dow at mid day increases 50 points from 100 points down because of Obama's words that he would like to have a deal by Christmas. This positive statements from Obama will continue throughout these 3 weeks till Christmas.

Accumulate slowly but do control your position size. Look for stocks that did well in their earnings this quarter. Look at SUPERGROUP. We mentioned that this is a stock with a good earnings story where you need to keep inside your portfolio this quarter. See how they run to $3.30 today.

Do not forget Ezion and Yoma too! Although they may be resting now, there is a chance for accumulation to be done and to burst forward still. Of course, the thing is you need to know whether there is accumulation.

Somehow or rather, I believe President Obama will get what he wants no matter what. From his first presidential election, no matter whether is it the Obama care or the debt ceiling, he hasn't really disappoint us. Let us give him a chance to prove himself again.

I am sure he will! Let us rock and roll to Christmas!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Wednesday, 28 November 2012

DOW waiting to break 13000 with Gangnam Style?!

Dear Friends,

We always like to analyse the dancing movement of DOW during the day to gauge the sentiment of the US market. As an example yesterday, Dow decreased at one point to 100 points to end 40 points down. One major reason is now the index is at the 200day MA (around 13000), which is a resistance.

A good sign that this market cant drop much is when every drop is met with a buy up. This is what happened yesterday. Today, the DOW went down 40 points and ended in positive territory also in mid-day. Although it is best to see how the movement is only when the market close, but this comeback in mid-day is still a sign of bullishness in the market.


We would think that DOW is just buying its time to wait for the chance to break 13000 with a GANGNAM Style horse dance. :) Perhaps it might happen soon. Let us monitor.

The market just need a piece of good news to light up the horse. Perhaps it may be the jobless claims this thursday or the Chicago PMI (a report on manufacturing) this Friday or whatever.

We just need some spark. Let us see how the DOW dance around round the 200day MA. The longer it sticks to the MA without dropping, the more powerful and likely it will break.


Although market may be slightly bullish now, do note that next week is a JAM PACKED week filled with economical reports. My only concern would be the jobs reports that happen on Friday. I would have to do an analysis this weekend to know if there is a danger of missing the expectations.


Tuesday, 27 November 2012

Don't be fooled by Dow 100 points drop during mid day

Dear Friends,

Today Dow dropped 100 points during mid day. However Apple brings Nasdaq positive now with a 16 points upward move. With the positive move by Apple, my immediate target is for it to reach 600 soon. 597 is my short term target. Now it is at 587.

Like what I said in previous articles, when Apple is on a roll, so is America stock market. And with holiday season coming up, it is on a roll. Monday is normally a day where by market makers try to go opposite to previous week movement. As last week is a fantastic up week, it is always normal that market makers will issue some bad news and concern about the market so that retailers sell. That is how they maintain liquidity, meaning create same number of buyers and sellers.

Marketwatch headline in pre-market open says market is concerned with Fiscal Cliff and Europe. Bull**** headline! These are just ways market makers do to try to dampen the bullish sentiment of the market, amid the good retail sales last Thanksgiving holiday and the good performance last week.

Do not be surprised that 2moro or the day after, this market suddenly bounce back up. When market makers sense the bullishness in the market, they will join in the fun to long after today's decline. Then after the run-up in mid week, Friday is often profit taking time.

Of course, some of the above mentioned are based on assumptions. But I have seen market makers do it again and again.With NYSE TRIN index at 1.33 today (above 1 represent bearishness and I normally use it as a contrarian indicator ), there is a good chance that Dow 2moro might be an up day.

Meaning Apple can have more chance on the upside 2moro!

Regards
Daniel
www.danielloh.com


Monday, 26 November 2012

Who says we are falling over the cliff??? Not Americans!

Dear Friends,

If you have been bearish going into the end of the year, worrying about the fiscal cliff and the stock market, you probably got to think again. Americans once again shows its retailing strength by buying up things and holidaying.

This is the article by Marketwatch:
Record count of holiday-weekend shoppers
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/record-count-of-holiday-weekend-shoppers-2012-11-25

Some statistics and what it meant:
A record 247 million Americans shopped on foot and online during the four-day holiday weekend, up 9% from the same period last year, when 226 million made holiday purchases.
(That means this is the best shopping in history! The Americans are preparing to shop, shop, shop!)

A total of 89 million Americans shopped online and in brick-and-mortar stores on Black Friday, up from 86 million in 2011, according to the survey conducted by BIGinsight for the NRF. 
(Shopping online means that technological stocks like Ebay and Amazon and Google should be your focus, the largest retailing website and search engine in America. Same as Expedia and Priceline, online holiday website.)

More than 35 million Americans visited retail stores and websites Thursday, up from 29 million last year, the survey found, with the average holiday shopper spending $423 this weekend versus $398 last year, a rise of 6%. 
(That means everything got to do with retail market will be good. Like Apple, Macy, Costco, Target,  Ross Stores)

Do not worry about the fiscal cliff, in fact take the opportunities of the fiscal cliff drop as a chance to make some money for christmas shopping and holiday!

I am already looking forward to a great EARNINGS SEASON for American companies coming next January as expectations of their results are lowered because of this season. Looking at history, that has been always the case after a terrible earnings quarter. ;)

Regards
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Friday, 23 November 2012

Singapore Stock Tip: Yoma consolidating but professional $ still around

Dear Friends,

We did say that Yoma hit our target at $0.70 and our advise is to exit at that price or when it cannot stand above $0.67. It went according to plan as today you can see it drop a bit and close at $0.66.

Check out our article:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/11/singapore-stock-tip-yoma-hit-our-target.html

But, having said that, we also know that Yoma is a good company with a story behind. Today, I saw that though it drop a bit, (although we exited position), we saw that professional money may still be in the stock.

We are still monitoring the progress.

A few scenarios might occur:

1) If the stock goes back up to $0.695 within 2 weeks from now, there is a high chance that he stock might breakout off $0.70. $0.695 may be a good entry point.

2) If the stock consolidates for more than 2 weeks, we will look at $0.71 as the entry point upon breakout or when it consolidates in a base.

3) If we find out the professional money leaving, then bye bye...

Thursday, 22 November 2012

Singapore Stock Tip: Ezion going up after consolidating?

Dear Friends,

I did said that $1.5 for Ezion is a resistance, but we still need to pay attention to this stock as it is a strong earnings stock. From our ART system, it shows signs that accumulation might be taking place and chances are that this stock may have further upside.

This is my article a few weeks back when I talked about the stock...
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/11/singapore-stock-tip-ezion-going-up.html

It hits our target of $1.5 where we exited.

Today it closes at $1.41, a discount of $0.09 already. There might be some opportunity ahead...

Target price: $1.60, Stop loss: $1.30. If touch $1.5, put stop loss at breakeven.

Regards
Daniel


Wednesday, 21 November 2012

22 Nov 2012 1.15pm: Radio Station FM958 Live interview with Daniel regarding China/ HK Market

Dear Friends,

I would be interviewed in FM958 on Thursday live at 1.15pm by Wang Di Cong regarding the recent market about Hong Kong, China and Singapore.

Do tune in to hear about that.

Regards
Daniel
-------------------------------------

各位朋友,

我将会在 城市频道958被 王蒂璁采访。内容会重点关于中国、香港和新加坡股市的走向。

欢迎星期四 1点15分中午收听。

谢谢。
Daniel

Singapore Stock Tip: Yoma hit our target at 0.67-0.7

Dear Friends,

After Ezion hits our target, Yoma, a recommended stock last month, today also hit our target from 0.67-0.70! Congrats on those that followed our recommendation based on our ART system. We also exited half of my position for this trade at the highest point 0.70 today. Now the stock is at 0.675.

Our article in October:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/10/4-singapore-stocks-worth-taking-look-now.html

We recommended this stock last month because we see that accumulation has been taking place. Maybe these guys know there might be some good news coming up. After we went in, market weakness brought the stock down to around 0.51. As our stop loss is below 0.5 the strong psychological support, after that, it flew to our target today.

You can see that 0.7 is the resistance today. We are quite right, ha. But can we enter again? Yes, when it go past 0.7 again, which is a resistance. By the way this stock has a good earnings this quarter in October. It is a good stock like Ezion or Supergroup. You can see Supergroup broker out of $3 today... a show of a good stock!

Let us see 2moro if Yoma's run will continue if u haven't exited position. If it continues to fall past 0.67, our advise is to profit take first.

Rgds
Daniel

Tuesday, 20 November 2012

Apple is pushing the US market along!

Dear Friends,

We did mention in the last article that Apple seems to have bottomed at $505 last Friday, the significant centennial figure of $500. Today it reached $560 now in mid day, an increase of near to $30. Needless to say, Dow increase by 170 points, with Nasdaq increasing by 48 points.

Our opinion is that 1.5 months back, US market drop started with Apple. Hopefully the Dow now recovers with Apple too. After iphone 5 launch, Apple has been disappointing! Dropping 23% from its peak. That marks the start of the Nasdaq and Dow Jones.

Btw, it is not normal for a stock to run up every single moment like what Apple did. Now at 5am in the morning, Apple closed at highest point! Almost every single hedge fund seem to cover shorting position liao. No selling at all... Have not seen Apple does it for ages!

But with this Friday- Black Friday great US sales (like Great Singapore Sales), US might be in a consumer retailing mood. Everybody seems to be geared up to buy some gifts and SHOP SHOP SHOP! One thing in their mind in buying things would be Apple products.

Hopefully $505 marks the bottom of Apple, and the start of a comeback! Go my darling! Make me some $$$ this christmas!

Regards
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Monday, 19 November 2012

Time to test the market with some small buying?

Dear Friends,

We have always been positive about this downturn in the US market. We talked about Fiscal cliff as a tremendous chance to get into the market when there are indications of a resolution. These few days do seem good. The progress between the Republican and Democrats are going relatively smooth...

See this article:
http://www.marketwatch.com/default.aspx?siteid=mktw&avatar=seen&dist=ctmw

You may not want to go into the stock market only when the policy is approved.

Get ready to act now by studying which stocks are good with their earnings or which stocks that are in-line with their earnings but grossly oversold these few days.

If you are hesitant to go in, just study first and act later when more confidence come back into the market.

I am seriously looking now at some Singapore big chip counters like Kep Corp, Semb Corp and Semb Marine, which are bashed upside down. 

In US, the techological stocks like Cisco, Apple and Facebook sure looks tasty too!

For our options grads, remember that Cisco and Facebook has good earnings. Apple may have reached its low of centennial figure of $500 when it touched $505 on Friday.

Remember that we still believe there is a good chance for a late run rally into the holiday season.

Btw, this Thursday is thanksgiving holiday in America. After thanksgiving, US has a Black Friday shopping day where people will go shopping. US will then issue a sales volume to indicate whether the consumer sales are good. Last year, it was one of the best ever in history. Let  us see how it is this friday! My opinion is that it shouldn't be bad as unemployment rate has dropped.

Walmart will start its tech sales on Saturday as indicated in this article:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wal-mart-to-start-post-holiday-tech-sales-on-sat-2012-11-19

If the tech sales are great, expect a revival from the tech sector, especially Apple and Amazon, with the iphone and kindle sales.

Do take note that Technological, Retail and Tour-related sectors or industries are the best industries to look at for a Christmas Rally!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

The BEST video on the psychology of trading!

Dear Friends,

If you want to be a good trader, you got to watch this video, where 8 newbies are selected to train to be a good trader.

Click on link below:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6ciY8u04Kk&feature=related

Learning trading is a long journey, but we hope that through our school's education, you can cut down on your time spent and mistakes made.

Remember that trading is a zero sum game. Behind every losing trade, there is a winner!

Make sure you are the one winning!


Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Friday, 16 November 2012

Singapore Stock Tip: Ezion and Super Group are good companies, but they hit a BRICK!

Dear Friends,

Today some participants in our seminar asked us what we think of Ezion and Super Group. We tell them these are the 2 companies to watch out for as they have great earnings this season. But you should have sold off first after they hit their psychological resistances!

Did you see how ezion drop today? We bet some professional players are dumping liao. Today is the day some are unloading! As we mentioned in the past, our target for Ezion is 1.47 to 1.5. Indeed highest it goes is 1.51 before tumbling today. See the chart... 13 cts drop today, wow! If you studied our website, you might have taken profit like us a couple of days ago, and avoid the drop!

See our last article:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/11/dow-jones-show-weakness-into-close-again.html



Another company is Super Group. We told our classmates last week that if this stock should reach 2.97, what we term as Law of gravity of price, you may want to profit take first. Without looking at the charts (as it does not have past history), we have used this principle to predict the resistance. It is 2.97.

The highest it goes yesterday is 2.98 before coming down today. Now it is 2.83.


The thing is now currently these 2 stocks might need to consolidate and stabilise a bit ( at least a few days) before running again. Although we mentioned they are good earnings stocks and you should play with such stocks this quarter, they need to pause now after zooming away these few days.

Go in after they stabilise... keep it in your trading diary! Do take note of our blogs on the conditions of these stocks again...

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com


Thursday, 15 November 2012

It is official that ALL our market sentiment indicators have turned BEARISH

Dear Friends,

With Financial sector turning bearish and joining the party, all major exchange (NYSE and Nasdaq) and sectors have all turned bearish.

Our market sentiment indicators have been providing us with timely views of the market. Over the years, sometimes I tried to go against what our sentiment indicators tell us, and most often I was burnt (because of itchy hands). So I suggest we all pay attention to what our market sentiment says, just play along it.

Try to avoid being bullish now. It is ok we just sit on the sidelines as not losing is already making money. Or try to day trade only. If you are swing trading, just sit tight and get your cash ready... once opportunity comes, we pounce back everything!

Huat ah! I am looking forward to a wonderful chinese new year, ha!

Market Sentiment Indicator for 14 Nov

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 60.84% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 9 Nov)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)


2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 48.91% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 9 Nov)
(Nasdaq Exchange Stocks has changed sentiment to bearish)


3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 63.60% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 25 Oct)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bearish)


4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 63.63%   (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 23 Oct)
(Energy sector stocks has changed sentiment to bearish)


5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 72.84% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 14 Nov)
(Financial sector stocks has changed sentiment to bearish)


6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 48.10% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 4 Oct)

(Technological sector stocks has turned bearish)
 
 
The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

Speech of President Obama is a disappointment

Dear Friends,

I went to sleep after the speech started. When I woke up today, Dow fell another 100 points. Again his speech prove to be a disappointment in the market. Probably the market expects more. As I have said, it is probably too early to expect consensus so soon. Discussions have barely started, so I do not think that any speech these few days will come to anything.

Expect more volatility in the market. Every noise heard is a trigger to sell. 

It is reported on a website: 

"The selling accelerated after President Barack Obama again stressed his commitment to ending Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans during a press conference. The president's firm stance sets the stage for a tough battle with Republicans toward compromise on the next federal budget.
The release of the minutes of latest Federal Reserve policy meeting was a factor as well as the commentary showed some division among members of the central bank's open market committee about continued quantitative easing efforts in 2013."

You can see that now confidence isn't in the market at all. Generally it is easier for market to drop 100 points rather than increase 100 points. It is easier for market to sell down to the close instead of closing strongly. It is easier for the market to sell on bad news rather than buy up on good news. (A good example is yesterday good CISCO report: The market is not listening to the good news much, but focusing on the disppointment).

All these are indications that market confidence isn't there. Let the market falls, and we hope it does. Our first target of a DOW Jones bottom would be 12300, a 10% drop, based on our mentor, Mr Hu Li Yang's theory. Once it reach there (we aren't far now), it may be a good chance to test the water by picking up some stocks. That may be a good point of reference for a bottom. A 15% drop from the high will indicate the BEST buying opportunity.

For now, do your homework and identify those stocks that have done well in their earnings report announcement. Identify but not enter yet, as the market is still going down...

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Anticipation of details from President Obama at speech

Dear Friends,

Dow continues its drop by 70 points mid day into the trading session. Market still not that good before the speech that will happen in mid day. This is the first news conference live after the election. People are tuning into the speech and hoping to hear something positive.

But probably, this time round, I still think the time is early to garner some positive reversal. Let us see what he says and study what the market thinks.

Let us still stay on the sidelines and wait until more confidence comes back into the market.

Rgds
Daniel

Wednesday, 14 November 2012

Dow Jones show weakness into the close again

Dear Friends,

It hasn't been pretty in America or Asia. Dow has dropped from 13661 to a low of 12756 in 1 month. A decrease by 905 points or 6.6%. Nasdaq has dropped from 3196 to a low of 2883, a decrease of 9.8%. STI has dropped from 3110 to 2883, a drop if 7.3%. KLCI has dropped from 1679 to 1636, a drop of only 2.6%.

Yesterday, America again showed weakness in its closing. Gained by 80 points mid day but closed 59 points down in the end. This movement indicates confidence is not there. It is advisable to stay in the sidelines unless the confidence is seen or when this fiscal cliff issue has some positive progress.

Just be more cautious in selecting the right stocks. Not all stocks have been going down hard though. Something that I have emphasized again and again. If you want to look for stocks, look for those that have done well in earnings. You would know it by looking at the direction on earnings day.

In Singapore Ezion has been running to a high of $1.5, against all odds. The reason is bcos of strong earnings. This is the first company that reached our profit target in our list of recommendations last month.

http://www.danielloh.com/search/label/Singapore%20Stock%20Tip%20%28Using%20ART%20system%29

Ausgroup and China Minzhong has fallen a few cents while First Resources and Yoma has been at around the same price since we last posted.

With the big caps tumbling (like Semp Marine and Semp Corp or Keppel Corp), I think these companies are slightly a bit more resistant.

The thing is now I don't recommend you to enter any of the stocks when the trend is down now. Just wait for the market to turn bullish again, and we study the stocks again.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

骆伟嵩:财政悬崖是祸还是福?

A Chinese article for Busy Weekly, Malaysia by Daniel Loh...

这就是股票市场。自从欧债危机过后,这一个新的财政悬崖危机已成为华尔街讨论的新篇章。美国财经节目和报纸几乎每一天都在谈论财政悬崖可带来的问题。道琼斯指数从上个月的最高点13661滑落到星期三闭市价12756,下滑了905点或6.6%  纳斯达克指数从最高点3196跌到2883,下滑了9.8%,可说是三大指数里下滑最多的。这要感谢苹果电脑超过20%的跌幅。马来西亚综合指数反而是亚洲跌得最少的指数,从最高点1679跌到1634,只跌了2.6%。虽然从大盘来看,马来西亚综合指数跌得不多,我相信很多股友都有发现许多股票都有下滑的趋势。


那这一次的下滑是祸还是福呢?我觉得这是一个千载难逢的好机会!我是一名投资教育家。很多时候,在股市讲座里,我都有机会问马来西亚的股友这几个月有没有投资股票。结果我发现少过三分之一的股友在今年六月到九月有买股票。这是另我非常惊讶的。道琼斯指数在这段黄金期间从12000点涨到了13660点,创下五年的高峰,但是还有许多朋友还没买股票。

这也证明了股票市场还没到顶部。投资家还没有一窝蜂的跑进股票市场。有些股友还是处于观望的态度,心想马来西亚大选过后,股票会不会进入大熊市。在这里我呼吁大家要了解一下股市的心态。熊市的到来通常都是当每个人都在高兴庆祝的时候而来的。熊市是当每个人高兴得消费,每个人开始买股票,每间企业快速的扩张,每间银行轻易的借钱出去才会发生的。如果股市还处在怀疑和疑虑当中,例如担心大选过后会崩盘,或是担心欧债危机会不会重演,或是担心美国财政悬崖问题会造成经济衰退,股市就不会进入熊市。股市可能大选后会有小调整,但不会进入长达平均两年的熊市。

对于那些还没进场的股友,这一次的财政悬崖会是一大机会!财政悬崖的问题应该会在年底前有一个解决方案。我相信美国国会最终会有一个对策的。他们还有四十多天的时间想好方案。

美国财政悬崖的解释

1) 当小布什是美国总统时,他推出了一些减税政策来刺激经济。这些减税政策的有效期会在今年底结束。如果国会没法延长某些减税政策或是达到合理的共识,所有的税收就会自动上升。

2) 在去年的债务上问题中,美国国会终于达成了提高债务的顶线。但是条件是政府的开销必须降低。当时国会定了一个日期开始降低开销,也是在今年年底实施。如果开销一旦降低,美国害怕很多人即将失业。

3) 刚好两个政策的期限就在2012年的最后一天。如果这两件事情不能妥善处理,华尔街觉得美国人就会因为没工作而不消费,明年经济就会突然进入衰退。

4) 这件事情的关键在于美国是一个非常民主的国家。民主党和共和党在国会都不能达成共识。各有各的看法。这些不稳定的因素是股市不想看到的。

投资策略与准备

也许股票市场现在有些动荡和下滑,但是我们觉得这是一个捡便宜 的良机。这个财政悬崖问题不难解决。他不是2011年的欧债危机也不是2008年的次级抵押贷款危机。财政悬崖危机不是一个涉及几兆元的问题。他不会突然让企业措手不及,影响企业的盈利。

美国几乎每间大公司都已做好应对财经悬崖的问题。JP Morgan Visa的总裁被采访时已表示他们早有为今年底准备。因为准备了,我相信影响就不大。

股票市场就好像一辆载满人的巴士。股票好的时候,你根本都没法上车。现在不好才有人主动让位给你。请不要错过良机!股票市场是给有准备的人的。请大家现在要做好一些功课。一是关注美国国会的进展。留意美国总统欧巴马或联邦储主席贝南克的讲话日期。二是找出这个季度业绩报告好的股票。可能不是现在马上进场,而是做好准备。如果市场一旦好转或是财政悬崖政策有了解决方案了,这些股票会是跑得比较快的领头羊。

Tuesday, 13 November 2012

Our NYSE and Nasdaq Exchange market sentiment indicator has turned bearish

Dear Friends,

Not a good sign last friday that our market sentiment indicator for NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchange stocks has turned bearish.

We would advise being careful opening up any bullish position from now on. Even if u want to do it, go in with small lot size unless it turns bullish again. And now that the Dow is still below the 200day MA, it is technically not good to be bullish.

Rgds
Daniel

Market Sentiment Indicator for 12 Nov

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 63.35% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 9 Nov)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)


2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 51.34% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 9 Nov)
(Nasdaq Exchange Stocks has changed sentiment to bearish)


3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 65.40% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 25 Oct)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bearish)


4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 63.63%   (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 23 Oct)
(Energy sector stocks has changed sentiment to bearish)


5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 75.31% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 22 Aug)
(Financial sector stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 49.36% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 4 Oct)

(Technological sector stocks has turned bearish)
 
 
The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector


A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

Monday, 12 November 2012

Wait and watch earnestly by the sidelines

Dear Friends,

I am waiting and watching earnestly for this last 50 days towards end of the year, for whatever progress the congress might make. Did u see on Friday the action from Wallstreet. Just before Obama speaks the market is up. After his speech, Dow gave nearly back all its gains.

This is an act of "expectation" again. Wallstreet is expecting him to make some positive comments. And in the event he did not make comments up to what the street wants, it is time to profit take, and close position over the weekend!

It seems an episode of QE3 once again. Remember in the 2nd quarter, whenever Ben Bernanke speaks, market will run up because they expect him to announce QE3. But whenever he doesn't, the maket sells down. Before the next appearance again, market runs up because of expectation again.

I would think probably this 50 days it might be that kinda way things work our again. Expectation and disappointment and maybe expectation again.

We might be in for a roller coaster ride until some consensus really come out.

Now we suggest be alert to anything that happens to congress on any information.

In fact, what we think is this recent drop is a good chance for u to benefit! We still consistently believe that the republicans and democrats will come up with a plan to solve things.

Last Friday I was honored to be interviewed by radio station FM95.8 Di Cong and was asked about the technical analysis of US market. From now onwards, I would probably appear on Friday 1.15pm every 2 weeks to give my latest news and strategies on the market.

As I was sharing about TA on FM95.8, I suggest

1) Wait for Dow Jones to come back and stand above the 200 day MA again. 200 day MA represents the confidence of the market. Without it standing above that, professional money may not come in yet.

2) Wait for Dow 10 day MA to turn up. The direction of 10 day MA represents the short term direction of the market. It needs to turn up.

Apart from the charts, please take note of any latest meetings and news from congress. And during this time, please do your research and pick out all the stocks that did well for earnings this season.

Did u see the run-up of Ezion after their earnings release on 6 Nov? Did u see the strength of our 3 local banks after DBS good earnings on 1 Nov?  Did u see Kep Corp collapse? Did u know that their Oct earnings is bad? That is the main reason for the selldown of this stock!

Please note that market although is bad, you can still find gems by focusing on their performance after their earnings release. These companies will be the companies to watch this quarter. They will be the strongest stocks once the market condition turns better.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com


Friday, 9 November 2012

Market Sentiment Indicator for 9 Nov

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 64.97% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 3 Jul)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bullish)


2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 52.16% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 5 Jul)
(Nasdaq Exchange Stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 67.60% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 25 Oct)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bearish)


4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 65.91%   (
Bearish signal: Bear Alert 23 Oct)
(Energy sector stocks has changed sentiment to bearish)


5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 75.31% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 22 Aug)
(Financial sector stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 49.36% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 4 Oct)

(Technological sector stocks has turned bearish)
 
 
The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

曾淵滄專欄 2012 11 09 : 美国堕崖机会不大

美国股市在总统大选结束后的第一天,一点也不给奥巴马面子,道指居然狂跌312点,正陶醉于热钱流入的港股也跟着大跌,论下跌的比例,恒指昨日的跌幅还高过道指。
 
美股下跌的导火线,是评级机构惠誉说,如果美国总统与国会之间无法解决财政悬崖的问题,会把美国AAA的评级向下调,于是,整个华尔街就把焦点集中于这个所谓财政悬崖的问题。
 
究竟财政悬崖是甚么东西?简单的说,是奥巴马的财政政策得不到共和党支持,奥巴马要向富豪征收非常高的税,而共和党议员反对,如果大家都不妥协,便一拍两散,美国总统提交给国会的财政预算案不能通过,那就等于大家一起跳下悬崖。

卖地成绩支撑楼价
 
奥巴马会跳吗?我相信不会,今次大选除选总统外,也选参众两院议员,奥巴马之前的如意算盘,乃期望民主党能重夺众议院的控制权,但是,选举结果是,共和党仍然控制众议院,而奥巴马的得票率也远低于四年前的选举。
 
奥巴马向富豪征高税的主张,只是他的竞选口号,选举过去了,就得面对现实,我估计,过去立场强硬的奥巴马会退一步,与共和党议员妥协,通过财政预算案。
 
当然,今后两个月,谈判过程中一定惊险百出,股市也会一再地出现震荡,但最后应该是有惊无险,彼此妥协,这么多年来,美国国会与总统之间从来没有把问题真的弄僵。
前日,马鞍山及将军澳两幅土地招标结果公布,长实(001)与新地(016)分别以高价取得土地,这是「曾二招」推出后的首个卖地结果,对楼价有一定的支持作用。

Thursday, 8 November 2012

US Congress has a chance to come up with a plan

Dear Friends,

This is really what market is about. A new episode of fiscal cliff drama cropped up to replace that of euro crisis. I would like to point out to something that always governs the market. We probably need to Buy Low Sell High to make $.

As I have been conducting a few investment classes every week, the first question I always try to find out is how many people have bought stocks this few months. To my amazement, an average of less than 1/3 of the class bought stocks in the last quarter from June to September, where the DOW went from 12000 points to 13660. That means something.

Most of us have not been in the market yet.

For those that have not been in the market, this provides a good opportunity again. This fiscal cliff episode will again end in a consensus or peace. America will find its way out. They got 53 days left to do something.

An explanation of Fiscal Cliff and why the problem:

1) During George Bush era, he implemented some tax cuts to stimulate the economy. And this tax cuts will expire end of this year which means if congress/ government does not do something to extend this cuts, the tax would be raised automatically.

2) Last year in the debt ceiling issue, a consensus was made to raise the debt, but government spending would be cut. The date where the cut would kick in is end of this year too. If the spending cuts do take place and government does not remove the cuts, quite a few people would be out of jobs.

3) Both this issues dateline are at the end of the year 2012. If these 2 issues are not resolved, Wallstreet thinks that it will lead to a sudden halt in the economy as consumers would probably not spend with  higher taxes and less jobs.

4) This problem can actually be solved if government lengthen the tax cuts and remove the government spending cut. BUT the problem with America is that it is too democratic! The US Democrats and the Republicans are as bad as Taiwan!

My view is that, yes there may be some volatility in Wallstreet now concerned about this problem. But to those that have not entered the market, this is a wonderful chance for you to buy stocks at a DISCOUNT. This issue does not seem that tough to resolve. This isn't a EURO Crisis or a Subprime mortgage issue where trillions of dollars are involved and companies earnings are seriously in jeopardy. This issue is not something that is so sudden that catch enterprises off guard!

A real crisis only occurs when it is caught off guard. The enterprises and businesses in America has already prepared itself for the fiscal cliff. JP Morgan and Visa CEO told us they already did something. The impact seriously is minimal because of the preparation!

Like what Investment Guru Hu Li Yang said, "Take this as a terrific opportunity to jump into the bus full of people. Everyone wants to be on the bus making money. Nobody wants to alight when times are good. With this uncertainty, some will alight in a panic. GET in when they courteously give up the seat to you."

I am sure, at the end of the day, US congress will come up with a consensus, just like last year debt ceiling issue. And when the time comes and the good news released, a lot of us will have no chance to get on the bus again!

You may not want to go in now, but try to monitor the progress of the congress, and take note of the dates they are going to release any news.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com




Should u panic after a 300 points drop in US post election?

Dear Friends,

Ouch! a 300 point drop? That is one big drop after the election. Guess Wall Street certainly hates Obama, ha. But one thing for sure, the people still likes him. Of course, the major reason that CNBC gives is FISCAL CLIFF. Well, I guess 2moro papers and media will start to discuss this topic again and again just like the Euro crisis episode. This is the new IN-THING of Wallstreet.

The thing is I know some friends might panic amid the drop in Wallstreet. If you have stocks now, that is the last thing you want to do - Sell into a panic.

In fact mid term wise, I think this is a good chance to start locating some value stocks that did well for their earnings.

Why do I think so? Because Fiscal Cliff has no direct & immediate impact on the earnings of companies. Some of you may argue about decrease consumer spending which will lead to lower bottomline for earnings. Yes, but in the event it happens, companies will also lower their forecast or guidance for them to hit their sales targets.

And this isn't the first time that a country raise taxes. Not in America. Bill Clinton raise taxes too in his campaign. Did it cause a sudden collapse in Great America? No, he carry on to lead one of the best thriving economy in American history. One that has no deficit.

What really drives a stock price is earnings, the core fundamental of capitalism. Fiscal cliff is a drama played out by two political parties. I seriously do not think they will jeopadise US economy by not compromising. Maybe disagreement, but in the end, everyone compromise for the better America, wouldn't they?

A good chance to accumulate good earnings stocks 2-3 months down the road? That is still what I think... by the way, accumulation means buying a little gradually up to elaborate. Bank of America has dropped to $9.38 now since I said it reach a double top a couple of days back! Isn't it a better time to buy if it drops to $9?

Mr Warren Buffett thinks financial sector will be on the way up for years to come when economy becomes better, shouldn't we celebrate this drop and get on the boat like him?

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Wednesday, 7 November 2012

Free Seminar in Malaysia - KL and PJ (this Fri and Sat)

TOPIC: HOW will the STOCK MARKET be after US election and China parliament change?

For more info, pls click on brochure below.

1) Date: 9 Nov (Fri) 12:30pm - 2:30pm
Venue: Affin Investment Bank, Chulan Tower Branch, KL

2) Date: 9 Nov (Fri) 7pm - 9pm
Venue: Affin Investment Bank, Sea Park Branch , PJ

3)Date: 10 Nov (Sat) 9:30am - 1:30pm
Venue: Affin Investment Bank, Taman Midah Branch, Cheras KL

Limited Seats! To register, please call 03-2143 1113 (Affin Investment Bank hotline)  or email support@affinTrade.com

Latest News: President Obama wins the election

It is official, and time for us to strategise...

Amusing where some polling took place... ha!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-americas-strangest-polling-places-2012-11-06

Are you frightened about the Fiscal Cliff? Our opinion on the US market now

Dear Friends,

We know that there are some retailers who have grown frustrated about the recent consolidation in the market, especially since QE3. QE3 did not seem to help the stock market. We know that people are calling shorts now, thinking that Dow Jones might plunge another 1000 points, STI another 100 points or KLCI another 50 points.

Our view is that you might not see that drop in the next 2 months, in the mid term. In fact, we encourage you to accumulate stocks now, going into the festive holiday christmas season. With the earnings on the way, pick up those stocks that have done well in the earnings. Not those that fared poorly. Isn't this a good time to buy your stocks at a discounted rate?

A few days back, we issued an article mentioning that US might have reached a bottom this quarter at 13000, at the 200day Moving Average support (A technical indicator used by chartists to show a strong support) 
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/11/has-dow-nasdaq-seen-lowest-point-this.html

 
Well, not many people in Wall Street are supporting our bullishness amid the fall now. We may be wrong, but how much less than 13000 can Dow Jones go?

Some of you may have heard of the fiscal cliff. Some of you may have feared about fiscal cliff that is going to happen at the end of the year in US. Especially Wall street! Everyone has been talking about it. Businesses has been preparing themselves for the increase in taxes. All Fortune 500 companies interviewed seemed to have been prepared.

The funny thing about this market is that if you are prepared for the worst scenario, the worst scenario normally would not happen. Remember the Y2K bug when people are scared and say at the turn of the century that every single computers or businesses might be frozen? It is because of the fear and the preparation that nothing happens.

If you want to know what is Fiscal cliff, take a look at this article. In it, there is an explanation of the fiscal cliff.

http://www.marketplace.org/topics/economy/fiscal-cliff-approaches-businesses-start-prepare

In short, people are scared of a) the raise in taxes for citizens and businesses and b) the cut in government spending which might lead to job cuts. Both might lead to slower spending and eventually a poor economy, as what Wall Street predicted.

As some of you might know, I have been a proponent of Asian Leading Investment Guru Mr Hu Li Yang's teachings. Mr Hu Li Yang always believe that this BULL RUN will carry on only when there is uncertainty in the market. It is the Euro Crisis that make this bull market survive and continue to run to a high.

If everything is well and economy is great, this bull run will be short lived. Please bear in mind that we are 3.5 years into the bull run now. If not for the Euro crisis last year, US and Europe might already be at the final phase of the bull run celebrating a great economy, a great housing market, a low unemployment rate and a rising interest rate.

Embrace this FISCAL CLIFF. With the uncertainty, this bull run is still intact and that is the main reason that why we think this bull run can still run on for another 2-3 years. Please bear in mind that BEAR market normally comes when interest rate is at a high, not when it is kept at 0%.

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Join us for a FREE investment seminar by Daniel Loh

<<Secrets of the US stock market & How it affects Singapore market>>

- What are the stocks to look at after US election?

You shall learn

1) US market important economical reports and implications
2) Outlook of Singapore and US market
3) An easy way to pick the right stocks
4) How to earn a rental income every month from the stock market

Date: 14 Nov 2012, Wed 7pm - 10pm    (English) or
Date: 15 Nov 2012, Thu  7pm - 10pm   (Chinese)
Speaker: Daniel Loh

Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Tuesday, 6 November 2012

曾淵滄專欄 2012 11 06 : 奥巴马连任利港股

昨日参加腾讯(700)联合财华社主办的港股百强颁奖礼,城市大学是协办机构,大学委任我与李巨威教授负责参与制订评分标准。100强的前十名当然全是内地的大型国企,特别是国企银行。除了超大型的股份外,我们也推出一些股民也许更有兴趣的奖,比方说中型企业的综合实力奖、飞腾奖、奇迹奖、最有潜力奖。城大只参与讨论评分标准,具体计算排名则交给独立的专业会计师楼负责。有趣的是,最有潜力奖的前三名竟然全是我的爱股︰嘉华国际(173)、越秀地产(123)及银河娱乐(027)。
 
陈家强是昨日颁奖礼其中一个主礼人,他在致辞时大谈炒楼与炒股。他说两者对社会的影响有很大的分别,不能混为一谈,因此,政府是鼓励市民投资股市的。热钱涌入,再加上政府公开鼓励,我相信这一浪的收获应该相当不错。

罗姆尼或叫停QE3
 
当然,热钱流入不表示股市能够天天涨,昨日恒指下跌了,但仍然守在22000点之上,只要美国总统选举不爆冷,恒指再往上升的机会还是很大。今天是美国总统选举投票日,民意调查两位候选人的支持度差不多,不过我还是认为奥巴马是热门,奥巴马胜了,一切如旧,QE3照推行,超低利率维持多三年。若罗姆尼胜了,那就有很大的变量。罗姆尼公开说会炒伯南克鱿鱼,没了伯南克,QE3可能中断,超低利率也可能中断,那可能导致股灾。因此,今天很可能有些人会因为担心罗姆尼胜出,而卖掉部份股票以降低风险。
 
奥巴马与罗姆尼在三场电视辩论中多次提到中国,罗姆尼反中的立场很强,这也是香港股民所担心的,但是,过去从来没有一位美国总统会记得他在竞选时讲过甚么话。

US Stock Tip: A stock for retirement! (Bank of America, Ticker: BAC)


Dear Friends,

There have been friends that ask me about buying a stock for the long term. If you want to know my preference, this is definitely one stock you want to invest and keep for at least 3 years, just like Warren Buffett.

I have been talking about this stock ever since it was $5. Now it has doubled, to $10, and I believe that it can still double its value. With America's fundamental economy and GDP getting better, financial sector is on the way to recovery. With housing in America also getting better, this is one stock to watch out for!

Banking sector is coming back slowly, but surely!

Temporarily, it has hit a double top at $10 last week. For short term players, wait for a breakout of $10 or a retracement back to $9. For long term players, just get in and wait for 3 years! Bank of America has a dividend of $0.01 every quarter.

Below is the weekly chart of Bank of America:


Another company that did well in earnings this season is Citigroup, which like BAC, is one company you can buy and hold. But comparing, I think BAC has more room to run as dollar value is smaller.

For Singaporeans and Malaysians, you may invest in American companies through local brokerage houses too, like Phillip Securities and Affin Investment Bank.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Radio FM958访谈 2018年11月15日:世界股市展望 - 现在是熊市吗?

·         美国 股市担心苹果业绩,巴菲特却大胆投资! 道琼斯昨晚闭市在 25080 ,掉了 205 点。在这 10 月 11 月道琼斯的波动都相当大。有很多投资朋友开始怀疑熊市是不是已经来临了。我的答案是还没有。这个跌幅反而是好时机进场。大家不用太担心。 ...