Saturday, 30 June 2012

Testimonial by our Graduate who makes $ in Hang Seng futures again!

29 June 2012: Testimonial by our graduate Chin Hiong applying our "CASH RINGING SYSTEM" on Hang Seng futures again!
"Hi Daniel, another typical application of Cash Ringing System. After 20 min charge through both box bottom and box top, it then tested 2 times the box top at 19157, it bounce off and hit a day high of 19529...amazing...trading tools..Cheers!"

6月29日星期五市场会逆转吗?

又到了今个月的重要时刻。今天(6月29日星期五)公布的美国芝加哥采购经理人指数(PMI)可能会为市场带来一 线希望,刺激其走势逆转。芝加哥的PMI报告是即将在下个星期一(7月2日)公布的ISM(美国供应管理协会) 报告的先锋。ISM的6月份报告未能达标。芝加哥PMI及ISM报告均与制造业有关。就让我们留意7月份的报告,看看企业的表现是否会更佳。

下周被市场视为‘神圣’的一周,恐慌会否会再次出现将视乎下周公布的报告。除了周一的ISM报告,我们还需注意周四公布的ADP就业报告及周五公布的非农业就业报告与失业数字。这三份报告将让我们知道市民大致的生活情况。

从4月起的三个月,就业数字均令人失望,华尔街及总统奥巴马都希望7月份的报告随着第三季的到来将会扭转形势。如果就业数字恢复增长,我预期股市也将会复苏。第一季令人赞叹的表现在第二季不复见,就业报告是一个关键因素。

大家请注意,美国在7月份又开始进入业绩报告期,这意味着华尔街的目光将会聚焦于国内公司的盈利,而对欧洲问题的忧虑将会减少,市场会比较担心 IBM、谷歌(Google)、埃克森(Exxon)、苹果(Apple)及美国银行的盈利。至于新加坡上市公司,业绩报告期也在7月份开始。

你也应注意你的组合是否需要重组。业绩报告期通常是挑选一些具增长潜质股及抛售表现欠佳股的好时机。你必须小心留意手上所持的股票。最简单的衡量方法是看看有关公司在公布业绩后,市场对其有何反应。
对于投机者及短期买家来说,我给你们的建议是在有关公司公布业绩前,把所持股票卖掉。如果这是一只不错的股票,在业绩公布后买回。

至于好像我这类的交易员,我们不喜欢冒险。在业绩公布期持股就好像手上持有计时炸弹一样。交易员可以在公司公布业绩之前或之后作买卖,但最好不要在公布业绩时持守。
概括来说,如果今天公布的芝加哥PMI结果令人满意,7月份可能会有不错的表现。就让我们静心等待好消息吧。

Daniel

免费投资讲座  为什么我们对下半年的走势看涨?

-道琼斯工商指数及海峡时报指数将会在不久后掉头回升吗?

讲座内容:

1) 对下半年表现看涨的理由
2) 新加坡及美国市场的前景
3) 每个月怎样只需15分钟便可预测市场的走势?
4) 怎样可以从股票中每月持续赚取租金收入?

讲者:骆伟嵩

日期: 7月3日(星期二,英语讲座)
7月4日(星期三,华语讲座)

时间: 晚上7点至10点

地点:141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building
#07-02 S(069541),

丹戎巴葛地铁站G出口,直走80米,红绿灯对面

报名方式:拨电或发简讯至 9367 6623 ,请列明[姓名]、[电邮]、[手机号码]、[所选择的日期]

Friday, 29 June 2012

Market Sentiment Indicator for 29 Jun

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 48.50% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)

2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 48.09% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 8 May)
(Nasdaq Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)  

3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 54.20% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 18 Jun)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 23.81%   (Bullish signal: Bull Alert again 7 Jun)
(Energy Sector has changed sentiment to bullish)
 

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 61.73% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 14 May)
(S&P500 Financial stocks has turned bearish)

6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 40.79% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert confirmed 19 Jun)

(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned BULLISH)



The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

Thursday, 28 June 2012

Testimonial by our graduate who makes $ in Gold Futures abd Forex trading!



26th June 2012: Testimonial provided by our graduate Kah Meng - Making 50 pips in Gold Futures within 30 mins using our "CASH RINGING SYSTEM"

"Hi all this 1 is my recent trade(Gold) jus follow the BOX TOP/BTM (Cash Ringing System CRS) i was try to short ths due to hv strong support on top of the box top and cross over the box bottom + triple bottom breakout...
Take profit ad 50 pips within 30 mins"
--------------------------------------------------
 Join us in our seminar below to know how Kah Meng did it.

Testimonial by our Graduate who makes 200 points in Hang Seng futures in 40 minutes!



27th June 2012: Testimonial by our graduate Chin Hiong applying our "CASH RINGING SYSTEM" on Hang Seng futures, making 200 points in 40 minutes:

"Hi Daniel,
Thank you very much for sharing the Cash Ringing System. Applying it on the Hang Seng Index and it work very well. Box Top was 19000, Box Bottom was 18940. Once it stay above box top I bought at 19030 and took profit at 19220 was quite a run of almost 200 points.....just to encourage the rest and hope everyone in this group can give it a try...thanks again Daniel..Cheers!"

-------------------------------------------------

Join us in the FREE Seminar below to know how our graduates did it:

<<SECRETS of the US market and WHY we think this 2nd half of the year is Bullish?>>

3 July (Tue) English Session and 4 July (Wed) Chinese Session
Do recommend your friends to this workshop!

You shall learn
1) Reasons for being bullish this 2nd half of the year
2) Outlook of Singapore and US market
3) A Way to predict the market direction using 15 minutes per month.
4) How to Earn Rental Income every month from the Stock Market
5) Basics of Options and how to use it in a Down market


Date: 3 July (Tue) English Session  &  4 July (Wed) Chinese Session

Time: 7pm -10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


Speaker: Daniel Loh (Raffles Business International Director, Mr Hu Li Yang partner, US Stock & Options Trainer)

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623


Wednesday, 27 June 2012

Will this Friday 29 June spark a turnaround?

Dear Friends,

It has come to the crucial again. There is a glimmer of hope this Friday starting from the Chicago PMI report. It is a precursor to the important ISM report next monday. For June, ISM report is also a miss. Let us see for July, whether the enterprises fetch a better result.

Next week is the HOLY week. Whether there will be a panic again will depend on the results next week. Apart from next monday's ISM report, we got to pay attention to next Thursday's ADP employment report, Friday's non farm payroll and unemployment rate again!

After 3 months of disastrous, a total disaster in jobs results this quarter, we hope that July will spark a good start to the 3rd quarter. If the jobs recover, expect a recovery from the stock market as well.

In fact, I am glad to say that July is earnings month again in US. This means that our eyes will focus more to domestic earnings results instead of worrying about Europe or economical reports shortfall constantly. We would worry more of IBM, Google, Exxon, Apple, Cisco, Wal Mart, Bank of America, Coca Cola etc. earnings! And that always meant not worrying too much of Europe or China. For Singapore stocks, earnings also start in July.

But do take note of your portfolio stocks. Earnings is normally the time to pick up some good growth stocks and to get rid of those bad laundry stocks. Make sure you pay attention to your stocks.

For speculators or short term players, one piece of advice is to sell your stocks before earnings. If your stocks are good, buy them back after earnings.

As a trader, we do not like risk.

To summarise, July might be a good month starting from this Friday if the Chicago PMI results are good. Let us cross our fingers now....

Rgds
Daniel


FREE Investment Seminar on US market

FREE SEMINAR
<<SECRETS of the US market and WHY we think this 2nd half of the year is Bullish?>>

3 July (Tue) English Session and 4 July (Wed) Chinese Session
Do recommend your friends to this workshop!

You shall learn
1) Reasons for being bullish this 2nd half of the year
2) Outlook of Singapore and US market
3) A Way to predict the market direction using 15 minutes per month.
4) How to Earn Rental Income every month from the Stock Market
5) Basics of Options and how to use it in a Down market


Date: 3 July (Tue) English Session  &  4 July (Wed) Chinese Session

Time: 7pm -10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


Speaker: Daniel Loh (Raffles Business International Director, Mr Hu Li Yang partner, US Stock & Options Trainer)

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Tuesday, 26 June 2012

Singapore Stock FREE Seminar: Q3 Market Outlook

The market always go against your prediction? Join us to Share and Discuss what is the next move. Come join us and find out more!

1.     The market outlook Q3 2012
2.     What are the strategy to use in next 3 months.
3.     Shall I sell or shall I buy? Is market Crashing or will market shooting Up?
4.     The full technical analysis of the current market.
5.     Automated stock pick to find out the beat-the-market and underperforming stocks.

Date: 28 June 2012, Thursday (English Seminar) or  29 June 2012, Friday (Chinese Seminar)
Time: 7pm – 10pm 

Speakers: Mr. Andy Yew (English) and Mr. KL Wong (Chinese)

Venue: 141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building #07-02 S(069541) Tanjong Pagar MRT Exit G, walk straight 80m, opposite the traffic light

Cost:  FREE  (Limited Seats)

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

曾淵滄博士: 實送大禮概念股

希臘有了新政府,但是與歐盟間的磨擦不會停止,西班牙、意大利的國債問題也會繼續困擾市場,但最壞的情況已過去,所謂困擾只是今後製造上落市的推動力,沒有了爆炸性的歐債新聞,股市炒作者只能把小新聞放大,因此有興趣短炒者,倒是可能利用目前的機會逢調整入市。

舉 例,上星期四恒大(3333)的風波,令所有內房股股價下跌,倒是可以趁機低吸其他內房股,特別是造假機會最小的國企內房股,還有,國家主席胡錦濤即將來 港主持香港回歸15周年紀念慶典,胡錦濤也必然會帶一份大禮給香港,估計大禮應與金融業有關。未來幾天,若遇上股市下跌,倒可以趁低吸納滙控(005)、 中銀香港(2388)及港交所(388)。 


推薦博客:投資錦囊

中央不會虧待港交所

你可能仍擔心港交所付高價收購 LME,不過,正如我在上星期四的文章指出,港交所收購 LME是負有國家使命,真正想收購 LME是中央政府,只是中國政府不方便出面,改由港交所出面,14億英鎊的收購成本,在中央的眼中只是一條毛,我相信中央絕不會虧待港交所,不會讓港交所 建功之後反遭損失。


兩年前,中央政府拍板批覆開發深圳前海,兩年後的今天,前海填海工作已完成,但是至今中央仍未公佈前海開發的真正政策。


星 期三,一個很大型的前海考察團與座談會在深圳召開,中央發改委官員、廣東省官員、深圳市官員、香港的學者、專家等,參與者超過100人,為甚麼會在這個時 候組織這麼大型的考察團與座談會,是不是胡錦濤來港時,也會順便宣佈前海的開發計劃?前海開發與香港息息相關,是合作夥伴也是競爭者,大家要多留意有關的 新聞報道。

Sunday, 24 June 2012

股市教父胡立阳:油价金价或将出现长空走势

最近欧债危机搞得全球人心惶惶,但更令很多人纳闷的是,为何以往经常是与股价行情逆势而行的油价竟然这次却是跟着一起重挫,还有一向也被视为避险工具的黄金,表现也是叫好却不叫座,从去年在最高峰的1900美元至今,才短短半年内跌幅已近20%,大家不禁要问:难道资金庞大、嗜血如鲨鱼的避险基金都睡着了吗? 

记 得我的六个月理论吗? 在《胡立阳股票投资制胜30秘则》一书中我提过,任何交易商品,包括股票,石油,贵重金属在内,只要媒体开始大幅报导,大家都认同它一定会涨的情况下,通 常在六个月之内,该商品价格就会出现逆转甚至崩跌,这种物极必反的现象就是我个人所发明出来的“六个月理论”。而当一项商品出现了再大的利好也推动不了价 格时,那就表示在一片叫好声中,能上车的、想上车的、敢上车的,全都挤在车上了,那么的沉重,还能靠谁来继续向前推呢?因此,我早在今年3月初油价还在 110美元附近盘旋,全球都笼罩在油价可能又要高涨的紧张氛围时,我在微博上就表示并不看好油价。而从3月下旬起,油价果然就出现了溜滑梯一般的走势,到 6/14是落在82美元左右。油、金价的重挫全都符合了“六个月理论”。

其实我还注意到另一个现象,那就是不只油、金价格,近来以原物料为主的大宗商品,也大多在出现一波跌幅之后仍呈现欲振乏力的态势,这些迹象都显示出风光了10年的商品价格似乎是正走到了牛市的尾巴。

而 我的另一项统计研究发现,许多商品价格常会出现“10年走多、20年走空”的循环走势。以黄金为例,它在1980年1月碰触到当时的850元最高峰之后, 就足足走了20多年的空头行情。再从技术分析的角度来看,油价自2008年7月创下147美元的天价之后,至今下跌超过4成,其实它已经在大家惊恐中悄悄 地进入第4年的熊市行情了。

我的观察数据显示,油金以及商品价格目前已深陷空头行情之中,短期甚至是中期,我都还看不到有任何足以扭转这种颓势的契机。

Can you BUY and HOLD stocks now?

Dear Friends,

My opinion is if you have the capability to hold stock, you may consider buying now. The worst it can get is that July may still fall if the ISM and Non farm payroll reports are bad. Even if it is bad, most likely, August will be the recovering month.

With the US election happening in November, I just can't see the market falling 3 months before. US President Obama will likely "kill" FED chairman Ben Bernanke if that happen. And with August being the FOMC month, my guess is that some sort of stimulus will be injected to revive the confidence if July is bad.

You might not want to wait till August as the stock price run-up might be earlier than expected. As it is tough to predict the bottom, my suggestion is that you can accumulate your stocks and wait for the final burst up till November. You need not pick the bottom. Do not be scared by any panics from now on.

Treat EVERY single panic as opportunity to pick up some valuable growth stocks from now on!

Anyway Dow Jones has dropped from the recent high of 13,338 points on 1 May 2012 to the recent low of 12,035 points on the 4 June 2012. We think there is a likelihood that 12,035 may be the lowest we see for this second half of the year. The worst would be that July's employment reports bring it to the 12,000 level again.

By the way, Asian Leading Investment Guru Mr Hu Li Yang's 10-15% retracement theory indicates that in a Bull market, a stable index like Dow Jones will likely have a retracement of 10-15%. Once it retraces 10-15%, that is the opportunity to buy.

13,338X 0.9 = 12,004 (calculation for a 10% retracement off the highest point)



This time round Dow Jones did not retrace 15% like what it did last October in the Europe uncertainty. But this round it did retrace 10% and bounce up after that.

Our forecast of the market this 2nd half of the year remains bullish and we hope that you will not miss this tremendous opportunity to enjoy a possible run-up before US elections.

If Dow Jones 13,338 is once again reached and broken, the all time high of 14,198 won't be far in sight.

Regards
Daniel

Market Sentiment Indicator for 18 Jun

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 49.02% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)

2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 48.64% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 8 May)
(Nasdaq Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)  

3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 55.00% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 18 Jun)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 21.4%   (Bullish signal: Bull Alert again 7 Jun)
(Energy Sector has changed sentiment to bullish)
 

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 65.43% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 14 May)
(S&P500 Financial stocks has turned bearish)

6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 40.79% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert confirmed 19 Jun)

(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned BULLISH)




The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

Wednesday, 20 June 2012

TIME to accumulate STOCKS as S&P500 and Tech stocks turn BULLISH!

Dear Friends,

Our Market Sentiment Indicator has indicated that Stocks are turning Bullish in the S&P500 index and S&P500 Tech Sector and S&P500 Energy sector. Our indicator has been correct when it accurately predicted the Bearishness in the market in April. That is the start of the fall.

Now it has turned as confidence has began to swing it around, though our NYSE and Nasdaq exchange stocks still remain bearish. I believe this turn in bullishness will continue, and once both NYSE and Nasdaq turns bullish, this bullishness will reach its full capacity.

So now, I recommend buying some stocks to accumulate in preparation, both in US and Singapore.

Risk is now low compared to April and May. Hopefully we get a positive news from Ben Bernanke tonight in the FOMC meeting. This will swing more stocks into the positive territory.

Good luck in your trading!

Rgds
Daniel

Market Sentiment Indicator for 18 Jun

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 49.26% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)

2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 49.02% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 8 May)
(Nasdaq Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)  

3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 56.00% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 18 Jun)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 30.95%   (Bullish signal: Bull Alert again 7 Jun)
(Energy Sector has changed sentiment to bullish)
 
 
5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 65.43% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 14 May)
(S&P500 Financial stocks has turned bearish)

6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 39.47% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert confirmed 19 Jun)

(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned BULLISH)



The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

Tuesday, 19 June 2012

US Stock Tip: FACEBOOK going crazy as predicted!

Dear Friends,

Yesterday I issued an article saying I am now bullish on this company. Check our last article:

http://www.danielloh.com/2012/06/us-stock-tip-facebook-in-play-now.html

Today it isn't hard to see this stock going crazy!


Timing is everything in trading. Hope you catch this stock too!

Huat ah!

Monday, 18 June 2012

Latest Update on Greece Election

It seems that it is a VICTORY for the Pro austerity party and European Union and EURO. Currently they have the majority votes.

Though the votes are still counting, but Europe are celebrating already. Let us see how Monday market reacts. Should be good judging by CNN report now...

FOMC meeting on 19th June Tuesday: Will there be QE3?

Dear Friends,

Last week rise is due to hopes of QE3 again. Market could not drop even when there is Greek election uncertainty. On Friday, Dow increase by triple digit again. Somehow I feel this week there will may great opportunity to go bullish!

Let us get our CASH ready when opportunities arise.

If Greece has nothing wrong on Monday, and if Ben Bernanke give some hints on Tuesday at the FOMC meeting, then it is a Bullish Play!

By the way, somehow I have this feeling that some news may have leaked out about possible stimulus. Market has been so bullish that is seems quite unusual!

But this is just my guess. Let us wait for the confirmation from the FED to see if any plans are in the pipeline!  If there is, it will be pro stocks and Gold.

Rgds
Daniel

A tight Fight in Greek parliamentary Election now

Dear Friends,

Now I am watching CNN on the election. Tight fight now between the pro and antibailout parties. Perhaps a few hours later we have a result. Basically now the Pro is leading the Anti austerity party 31% to 25.5%.

Currently the situation is that Greece could not form a government yet after holding the election the 2nd time. I also seem confused by the election results. The thing is there are so many fragmented parties involved. For Pro Austerity New Democracy Party to win, it needs the support of other party. They need to hold the majority votes.

So let us just see the market open 2moro in Europe. We shall see how the Europe reacts to the news...



A report from Marketwatch:

Polls showed the conservative, bailout-supporting New Democracy, with 27.5% to 30.5% of the vote and the left-wing, antiausterity Syriza with 27% to 30%, according to reports citing exit polls reported by Greece’s Mega TV. 

A slight edge in the final results is key, because the party receiving the largest number of votes gets an additional 50 seats in the 300-seat Greek parliament and giving it an advantage in forming a governing coalition. 

The first official estimate were due around 9:30 p.m. Athens time, or 2:30 p.m. U.S. Eastern. Voting ended at 7 p.m. Athens time, or noon U.S. Eastern. 

The exit polls appear to mirror results of the May 6 Greek election, where voters failed to conclusively back a new government that would lead them out of a debt crisis that has seen the nation flirt with default and shake the euro zone to the core. 

“If Greece goes any longer without a government, it could be worse off than if it just left the euro now,” said Jonathan Bristow of London-based Valbury Capital. 

The failure last month, which resulted in days of painstaking negotiations as the nation’s main parties scrambled unsuccessfully to form a coalition government, set the stage for the June 17 election.
The vote was seen as a referendum on Greece’s current bailout and its strict austerity measures.
Syriza has promised to reject the terms of Greece’s European Union bailout if it forms the next government. 

It’s rival, New Democracy, has sent signals that even though it won’t agree to the current austerity program in the agreement, it will eventually work out a way to find a deal after tough negotiations with the “Troika” made up of the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund, the three groups in charge of the Greece bailout. 

The outcome, however, could have far-reaching and potentially grave implications for Europe’s single currency. 

“It is not the election result in itself that matters,” said John Ventre, a fund manager at Skandia Investment Group. It is a litmus test that will give an indication of whether the euro zone can be held together, he said.

US Stock Tip: Time to Buy Facebook now??

Dear Friends,

As you may know, I have been always negative about going into Facebook IPO. I mentioned to let it go bust before we enter.

My last article on Facebook:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/06/us-stock-tip-time-to-focus-on-facebook.html

NOW however, I am turning bullish about this stock. This is one stock that is hard to value but having been short down hard since IPO, I think it is overdone. These couple of days we have seen a strong upwards momentum shooting past $30 from a low of $25.

This stock may be a long term play by buying its Stock. Or if possible, I am looking at its options for short term play.


Friday, 15 June 2012

Did Asian Investment Guru Hu Li Yang predicted correctly about Europe?

Dear Friends,

If you come for Asian Investment Leading Guru Mr Hu Li Yang's seminar last September, you would have heard about him talking about the Europe situation. 1 year later, his predictions do seem to come through.

Last September, he urged all of us not to worry about the Europe crisis. It is in fact a golden opportunity to go into the market. Yes indeed, this January we reached a new high and we put the Europe crisis behind us.

At that time, he mentioned that the stock market this year will continue to have potholes for us to fall into. "Do not expect a smooth sailing journey all the way to election. There will be bumps along the way." Yes indeed, he got it right again. Just when we expect Dow Jones to continue its 1st quarter's marvelous run, the 2nd quarter put a sudden halt to it.

Europe's problems came back again. China's slowdown became a major concern which caused oil price, commodities, energy and industrial sector stocks related to China to decline sharply. All stocks related to China, no matter is it listed in Singapore or US, went down. Suddenly US also seems to be facing economical uncertainty with 3 months continuous shortfall in employment results. Even the famous fast growing BRIG nations, Brazil, Russia, India and China were forced to cut interest rates to save their economy. China being the latest to join in the crowd this month.

Of course, will all these troubles eventually lead to a recession? Will Italy, Spain and Greece problems bring down the world? Mr Hu Li Yang does not think so. This problem will be solved. In fact Mr Hu Li Yang last year predicted how the Euro Zone will shape up. He even referred to Europe crisis like how the Romans fight the war in the past. When in war, the Romans did for once to tie up 8 horses together to enhance their fighting capability. Gradually they found out that though 8 horses did increase the capability, when one horse got shot down, it affected the rest of the seven. Mobility was compromised. Hence the Romans began to reduce to 4, later to 2.

Mr Hu Li Yang said, "This is identical of the European problems. The way to solve it is to kick out the incapable nations. Those ill horses. One by one. Until the capable are left behind. He predicted Europe will do it within the next 2 years."

Again, it does seem very likely now that Greece may be the first country. With this weekend election, we seem to have accepted the fate of Greece rest in the opposition. And it is no secret that the opposition do not want to accept EU terms and regulations. We are growing accustomed to the fact with each passing day that Greece might be out soon.

Will Greece exit lead to a collapse in the European Union? I think Mr Hu Li Yang is right. The only best solution now is to eliminate the weakest horse. Only then will the Dow Jones reach its glorious all time high of 14198 points. After that strong psychological resistance, we might go on a super bull run just like what Prof Zeng Yuan Chang predicted.

So let us pray and hope Greece exits fast!!!

Rgds
Daniel

Thursday, 14 June 2012

Market is so Boring it is better to watch Portugal vs Denmark match!

Dear Friends,

Yes, today in US, market is so slow and boring that I find it more enjoyble to watch my soccer match. Portugal defeated Denmark in a 3-2 triller! ha, if you know what is soccer...

I guess that is the same reaction in Wall street. The european bankers and traders and hedge fund managers may have tuned in to their TV like me. That is the reason that these few days the panic seemed to have subsided. I guess that is good news for the European economy as everybody in Europe engaged in their country's soccer performance.

I saw this headline in Marketwatch:

Crisis focus shifts to Italy ahead of key auction 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/focus-to-shift-to-italy-ahead-of-key-auction-2012-06-13

2 weeks ago, this headline would probably cause a major panic in European and US market. Not today. I think market is more concerned about the match later in the week between Italy and Croatia. The Italians will probably be more concerned about being out of the competition should they not win.

I think you get my point.

This is the market situation now.

In the meantime, I am preparing myself for the match later between Holland and Germany at 2.45am Singapore time. Betting on soccer odds seem to entice me more now than betting on stocks.

Tatas
Daniel

Market Sentiment Indicator for 14 Jun

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 45.52% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)

2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 46.86% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 8 May)
(Nasdaq Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)  

3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 48.20% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(S&P500 Stocks has turned bearish)  

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 26.19%   (Bullish signal: Bull Alert again 7 Jun)

(Energy Sector has changed sentiment to bullish)
 

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 61.73% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 14 May)
(S&P500 Financial stocks has turned bearish)

6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 31.58% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert confirmed 20 Apr)
(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bearish)

The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

By the way, based on past historical records, just by following this indicator for the last 20 years, you would have avoided all US recessions or bear markets.

香港股神曹仁超: 中国将成经济火车头

曹仁超预测加中经济前景甚好。

国际金融投资博览会「2012温哥华理财投资策略大会」10日在列治文喜来登(Sheraton)酒店举行,并特邀香港著名财经专栏作家、股评人, 有「平民股神」之称的曹仁超出席演讲,逾2000人参加远超历届。本次参展方包括来自本地的银行、投资理财公司及一批上市公司,为华人投资者提供投资谘询 与机会。

在演讲中,曹仁超用轻松易懂,深入浅出的语言,为市民们分析加拿大及中国的投资环境与全球经济环境的影响,博得阵阵掌声。他断言,欧洲市场已无药可救,中国会成为另一个经济「火车头」,加中经贸会出现新的一页。

中国将成经济火车头
曹仁超认为,现在全球经济正处於青黄不接时期,经济低迷,欧债危机没落已成定局,他表示,通常一个国家或地区经济繁荣时期一般长达十年左右,而今後的十年欧洲经济恐无翻身机会;相反地,中国及印度等新兴国家快速成长,中国甚至会成为一个新的经济火车头。

曹仁超称中国A股市场从去年12月开始,已经基本触底,虽然暂时并未表现出强势增长趋势,但今年9月中国领导人换届後,最晚明年初,中国股市将会成为一个新的投资亮点。

他强调,现在中国A股市场未表现出任何复苏迹象,其实很大原因是受全球经济影响,但随著领导人换届,政府及银行都会相应给予更多政策支持,届时反弹必然发生。

加拿大能源出口中国

最近加中贸易合作加强,大家有目共睹,曹仁超认为这是加拿大经济将与中国共同复苏、迈向新台阶的重要原因,加拿大的惊人能源储存将为加国经济带来惊人动力。

他说,加拿大原本是美国最大的能源进口国,但最近加美贸易关系大不如从前,加拿大已转换方向,开始加强对中国的能源出口,而欧洲能源对中国出口关系恶化,也对促成这一合作产生相当大积极作用。他甚至认为,过去欧洲经济的繁荣景象,未来十年将会在加中两国重演。

对於美金今後走势,曹仁超表示,短期内美金将会上涨,尤其是7月至10月美国大选期间,至於大选结束,走势如何,还须留待新任领导人胜出後才能知晓。

股市是最佳投资项目

曹仁超建议有投资打算的市民,今後几年,股市是最佳投资项目,而债市、黄金,甚至包括楼市都不是好选择。曹仁超认为,以香港楼市为例,气数已尽,虽未必会大跌,但再涨的机会渺茫。但他也提醒,近两年全球经济继续动荡,投资选择还须谨慎。

本次理财投资大会还有多个参展台,包括来自本地的银行、投资理财公司及一批上市公司,也吸引了大批对金融市场有兴趣的市民参与。

Wednesday, 13 June 2012

Singapore Stock Tip: Yanlord going crazy but may have temporarily stopped

This is a stock that our graduate has mentioned. Let us study this stock carefully.

Yanlord may have reached a resistance at the "Law of Gravity of Price" of $1.20 after our friend, Chin Hiong mentioned that he bought it at $1.04.

See today's price of $1.18 is reached? Today it close at $1.14

Did you see a lot of people selling at $1.18, a spike in volume intraday? Not a good sign today.


Temporarily a rest is needed now. But can we look at this stock again in future?

Yes, preferably when it comes back up to $1.19. I would normally prefer for this stock to go beyond $1.23. But for speculators, you may want to get in earlier. If at $1.20 it still has a resistance, please exercise your stop loss at $1.15.

Singapore Stock Tip: A look into Starhub

Dear Friends,

Do you remember us recommending Starhub ever since its upward move from $2.90 when it broke out?

Our last article of this stock is in end of April where we mentioned that this stock is still strong.
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/04/singapore-stock-tip-starhub-is.html

Indeed the highest it has gone is $3.30, which is what we called the "Law of gravity of Price".


Today it ends at $3.29. Let us see if this stock can go past $3.30. If it can stand above $3.31, it might have a chance of travelling towards $3.40. The thing is this is a high dividend stock. You might consider owning it for defensive play.

Rgds
Daniel

Tuesday, 12 June 2012

Free Seminar: Secrets of Trading CFD

CFD- The best vehicle to quick success

Plus a sharing on June market Outlook and Stocks Review!


Is small start-up capital your drawback from start trading for your income?
Is a correct predicted bear run always stop from earning money from the market?
How to profit consistently using CFD?
How to access a wider range of markets today, including indices, ETF and more?
How to magnify your trading value to achieve a higher potential return?
How to Profit no matter if it is a rising or a falling market?
How to use CFD to hedge your portfolio using pair trading method?

Date: 14 June 2012, Thursday (Chinese Seminar) or  15 June 2012, Friday (English Seminar)
Time: 7pm – 10pm

Venue: 141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building #07-02 S(069541) Tanjong Pagar MRT Exit G, walk straight 80m, opposite the traffic light

Speaker: Andy Yew (ART system Founder, Singapore Stock Specialist)

Cost:  FREE  (Limited Seats)

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

US Energy Sector seems to have reached a Bottom

Dear Friends,

Our S&P500 Energy Sector Market Sentiment Indicator has shown a double bottom in the Oversold region. Currently 26.19% of stocks are bullish in the Energy Sector.

We think that buying into Energy stocks now is a good choice as further downside is limited. Holding period can be mid to long term.

Market Sentiment Indicator for 12 Jun

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 45.89% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)

2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 46.79% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 8 May)
(Nasdaq Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)  

3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 48.40% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(S&P500 Stocks has turned bearish)  

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 26.19%   (Bullish signal: Bull Alert again 7 Jun)

(Energy Sector has changed sentiment to bullish)
 

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 62.96% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 14 May)
(S&P500 Financial stocks has turned bearish)

6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 31.58% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert confirmed 20 Apr)
(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bearish)



The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

Monday, 11 June 2012

What is the plan now that Spain has reached a resolution?

Dear Friends,

Last night Spain stage its contest with Italy in the Euro 2012 football match. It has been delighting to know that with the kickoff of Euro, it seems that Europe problems has died down as media focus is channeled to soccer matches rather than focusing on its domestic economical problems.

It is delightful to watch Spain's prime minister escape from his country to go to support Spain after getting 100million Euros.


http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/10/spanish-pm-refuses-to-call-e100b-bailout-a-rescue-skips-country-to-watch-euro-2012/

As a matter of fact, I think this is a smart political move to indicate that the Spain prime minister is still ENJOYING LIFE. It is as if he is saying "Relax everyone, let's just watch some soccer. The problem is over."

This month is indeed a very unusual month that I find it hard to comprehend. But so far, like what I mentioned, once Dow goes up for 3 consecutive days and when Dow increase by more than 100 points, the temporarily trend has changed bullish.

See our article 2 weeks ago when we said these are the 2 indicators to look for. On Thursday, Dow completed its 3 days up move.


http://www.danielloh.com/2012/06/do-you-jump-in-to-buy-singapore-stocks.html

So it may just be going a bit bullish now. But be careful with your position size also as this weekend we will have GREEK Election also!

Rgds
Daniel

One problem in Europe down with Spain getting 100billion Euros

Full report on Spain weekend bailout package:

Spain on Saturday became the fourth -- and largest -- of the 17 countries that use Europe's common currency to request a bailout. This is a big blow to a nation that a few years ago took pride as the continent's economic superstar only to see it become the hot spot in the eurozone debt crisis. Its economy is the eurozone's fourth largest after Germany, France and Italy. 

Although Spain has not yet said how much money it would seek, the Eurogroup -- finance ministers of the 17-country eurozone, of which Spain is a member -- said in a statement Saturday that it was prepared to lend up to 100 billion euros. The funds, which will come from one of three pools of emergency financing eurozone countries can access, will be sent to the Spanish government's Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring (FROB), which would then use the money to strengthen the country's teetering banks. 

Across the country, Spaniards reacted with a mixture of anger and relief to the news. The full amount of the eurogroup's lifeline amounts to 21,000 euros of new debt for each person -- almost equal to the average salary in a country of 47 million where the unemployment rate for those under age 25 is 52%.

The country is already reeling from deep austerity cuts Rajoy has imposed over the last six months that have raised taxes, made it easier to hire and fire workers, and cut deep into cherished government programs, including education and national health care.  


"It's obviously a shame," said civil servant Luisa Saraguren, 44, as she strolled on a sunny Sunday morning with her young daughter. "But this bailout was fully predictable, and the consequences of this help are going to be a lot bigger compared to the cuts we've been living with already." 

Rajoy took pains to avoid the word bailout Sunday, saying Spain's rescue package is a line of credit that its most troubled banks will be able to tap. The assistance will not come with the outside control over government macroeconomic policy like that imposed Greece, Ireland and Portugal when their public finances were bailed out. 

He said interest rates on the loans will be considerably lower than the rate near 7% that Spain has been forced to pay recently on the international debt markets, a level that forced the other countries to seek bailouts. The government will be responsible for collecting repayments from the banks, with interest, and returning the money to the Eurogroup, although interest rates and loan duration details have not yet been revealed. 

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Spain's debt-to-GDP ratio was more favorable that even Germany's, with Spain at 78% of GDP and Germany's at 82%. 

"Spain is making the necessary reforms to improve its competitiveness and to limit its fiscal policy to a sustainable deficit. By the way, Spain's overall debt (ratio) is lower than Germany's," Schaeuble said.
The bailout also spurred Irish opposition finance spokesman Michael McGrath to criticize his government for not having negotiated better terms, saying it needed "to start fighting Ireland's corner in a more vigorous and forceful way." 

Spain hopes to regain the economic credibility it has lost by shoring up its banks. This should result in credit being restored so businesses and individuals shut off from loans can start borrowing and the economy will grow again, Rajoy insisted, again without saying when.  


Europe's widening recession and financial crisis have hurt companies and investors around the world. Providing a financial lifeline to Spanish banks is likely to relieve anxiety on the Spanish economy -- which is five times larger than Greece's -- and on markets concerned about the country's ability to pay its way.
Spain's government will make a formal approach for aid once independent audits of the country's banking industry have been carried out. 

It is not yet clear whether the money will come from the EU's 440 billion euro European Financial Stability Facility, the new 500 billion euro European Stability Mechanism, or a combination of the two. 

The deal is to be underwritten by the Spanish state, which will use the FROB as its mechanism to funnel the loan to banks in need. Opposition leader Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba said he had discussed the loan with Rajoy and added that for it not to increase the national deficit the entire amount borrowed will have to be paid back to the treasury by the banks, "including the corresponding interests." 

Economy minister Luis de Guindos said 30% of the banking system needed recapitalization. The IMF in its financial stability assessment report said, without listing names, that Spain's two large internationally active banks "are well diversified." It is understood that these are Banco Santander(STD) and BBVA(BBVA)

It said seven former savings banks that have received state support "rely significantly on FROB for capital
and liquidity support" and that other medium and small private sector banks which account for approximately 11% of domestic banking were also exposed to the real estate and construction sector.

Friday, 8 June 2012

Ben Bernanke never gives any signs of QE3

Dear Friends,

Today after Big Ben's testimony talk, the market goes down a bit. But it hangs there. Now at 2pm EST, market goes back up to triple digit.

This is the summary of the speech:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-ready-to-act-if-stresses-mount-bernanke-says-2012-06-07

Today we got a surprise cut by China in interest rate which is certainly a booster.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-pboc-cuts-interest-rates-2012-06-07

Maybe S-chips might be rising 2moro. It might be am injection that is needed. Let us see...

Unbelievably, Dow Jones have risen for 3 consecutive days, and by triple digits for yesterday. Maybe 2day will be one. It has almost erased this month's drop so far. Quite a remarkably volatile month so far.

So far this rise is difficult to explain using technical analysis especially after S&P500 drops below 200day MA. Remember the whole world shouting BEAR just 3 days ago? What about hedge fund dumping their shares or the trigger stop? None has happened so far.

I like to study fundamental economical data to know the direction. Do still take note that this month's economical data should remain weaken than estimates. And 2moro is Friday, expect some profit taking after this strong run these 3 days.


GET ready for EURO CUP football GUYS! OLE OLE OLE....

Rgds
Daniel

Why is Learning Trading one of the hardest business?

Dear Friends,

Trading is easy if you get it. It is like ATM machine at your desk. However LEARNING to trade the correct way is the hardest thing to do for the following humanistic reasons:

1) The act of disobeying RULES - 
We normally like to disobey rules, rules of money management or emotional control. We always think we are right. "We think that this stock will surely rise" "We think that we should put in all our money to buy."

In fact in trading 70% of the time we are wrong. Especially for beginners, who has not yet developed the intuition to trading. That is why we have money management rules, we have position sizing rules. All these rules are laid down by trading gurus because they have lost enough. We should just follow them instead of thinking we are always right!

2) The act of wanting to buy just because we do not like to waste time - 
In everyday life, we are taught to act immediately so as not to waste time. This is the one of the worst habit in trading. To enter just because we could not stand ourselves wasting time looking at the screen.

As a trader,we got to get use to a carefree life, a life where we do not need to rush into a trade, the act of waiting for the right time to come, the right day to come before acting. Think like a sniper, who can camp for days just for that one shot! That one shot (or trade) may be all it needs to earn 2 month's income.

3) The act of thinking that opportunities might be gone forever - 
We are also taught in life to grab hold of any opportunities. We always live a life of scarcity instead of abundance! We always think that once we miss the chance to buy APPLE, it is gone forever. This is the chance of a lifetime. It is my only chance to be rich.

Wrong thinking! Everyday or Every month there are chances in the market. There will be another Apple coming if you miss it. Live in the Law of Abundance. That will prevent you from going into a hasty trade and chasing new high.

4) The act of being afraid of Failure - 
Nobody likes to lose in life. Especially a beginner in trading. We are so afraid of losing money that we forget our stop loss. We hope that the stock will rise back, which only happens sometimes. We do not face up to failure or losses. When we lose money, we switch off the computer instead of studying the reasons behind the losses. We are too afraid to lose!

As a trader, we should like losses, adore losses and hug them. It seems an irony that I said it. But yes, after 10 years of trading, that is how I feel one should be. Lose MORE but SMALL. Win LESS but BIG.

5) The act of thinking the product is yours just by holding it in your hands-

In sales, we often have a term called puppy close. Meaning if a pet shop owner wants to sell a dog, the best way is to lend the dog to the customer to take home for a day.

This is one of the of the worst habits a trader should have. Thinking unrealised profit is PROFIT in the pocket even before closing your position just because you own it. A lot of us think that open positions in stocks with profits are already inside our bag which often is not the case. Open position means that the profit you have is still the market money unless you take it off the table.

Traders should take the money off the table before they think it is theirs. The first thing once a trader has some unrealised profit, is to put a stop loss at breakeven. When market suddenly swing against us, get out at breakeven. Only by thinking that unrealised profit is not profit yet, will we be able to have the heart to do it. Often times we are slow in getting out of profitable trades when market suddenly swings is because we hope to earn back the maximum profit that think we had.

Thursday, 7 June 2012

Best Up Day in Dow Jones this year but should you jump in?

Dear Friends,

By Midday today, Dow Jones is up by 215 points now. The reason for this rise is because of anticipation of QE3 ahead of Ben Bernanke testimony tomorrow. All sectors seem to be up. Advance stocks beat declining stocks 76.5% to 15.3%. This is a huge rally. It is the best day for Dow this year. 

Yes a lot of us may jump into the stock market. I guess tomorrow STI will open at a high, with a lot of stocks in the green. Maybe a lot of Singaporeans will jump in 2moro.

However like I mentioned in the last article, I encourage you to exercise position sizing control. Make sure you put in only a small portion of your money if you would like to jump gun.

Today's rise is purely speculation. And I would say, unless Ben Bernanke gives any hints on potential QE3, we should still remain cautious. Sure, there may be some missed opportunities of buying stocks at the bottom if market rallys after 2moro Ben's talk. But being a trader, we need to think of the worst scenario.

If there aren't any assurances from Ben, the market might swing the opposite direction. The time is still early before we confirm whether the trend has changed.

In fact today at 7pm Eastern time, 7am 2moro Singapore time, one of Fed's influential member Yellen will deliver his speech also. All eyes will be focused on him before 2moro's Ben talk.

Let us wait and listen carefully.

Best Regards
Daniel

Wednesday, 6 June 2012

Free Seminar: Trade your Way to Success using Indicators

Free Seminar: Trade your Way to Success using Indicators (Parabolic? Channel? CCI?)

Plus a sharing on June market Outlook and Stocks Review!

What will you learn in the seminar,

  1. Trade for a living by implementing a proven successful swing trade strategy.
  2. How Professional Traders manage their short term trades.
  3. Learn about the importance of using the “TEST” system.
  4. The essential skills and rules needed to survive in the trading world.
Date: 7 June 2012, Thursday (English Seminar) or  8 June 2012, Friday (Chinese Seminar)
Time: 7pm – 10pm

Venue: 141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building #07-02 S(069541) Tanjong Pagar MRT Exit G, walk straight 80m, opposite the traffic light

Speaker: Andy Yew, KL Wong  (ART system Founders, Singapore Stock Specialists)

Cost:  FREE  (Limited Seats)

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623


Do you jump in to buy singapore stocks now?

Dear Friends,

I know that some of us Singaporeans have take a chance to jump in onboard the ship to acquire some Singapore stocks recently. Today STI goes up 13 points. The stocks do seem cheap now compared to 2 months back.

I am not trying to discourage you from entering but I would suggest if you enter, remember not to enter much. Do cut down on your position size, meaning go in a bit only. It is better to have some cash at hand now. If your stock continues to drop, you can buy again at a lower price.

June is not a month where market is working for you based on the bad economical reports.

Currently I would like to hear better news from Europe and US for me to really jump in big on stocks. Europe needs to give more assurance of Greece or Eurobonds. US need goverment stimulus or QE3 to really beat the bad economical news in June. If there are no such positive news from either countries, I would only go in small even if I enter.

From a technical perspective, I also would like to see a change in US market trend
1) Dow jones need to close higher by more than 100 points (a triple digit figure) to signify confidence.
2) Dow Jones need to be up for 3 consecutive days to signify a slight change in trend

There might be better months ahead. My guess is the real turnaround will come July or August (latest). Make sure you go in big then

Rgds
Daniel

A better way to trade GOLD? Trend changed for Gold Miners

Dear Friends,

We have noticed for 3 consecutive weeks that the Gold mining index has outperformed the Gold index. Gold mining index measures the Gold mining company prices. It has been 3 weeks up!


We have seen that the trend has changed for Gold mining companies. This may be the start. For the last couple of years, the gold mining companies has been underperforming the Gold price.

I would suggest if you like to purchase some bullish stocks, look at companies like Goldcorp (GG), Newmont Corp (NEM),  Randgold (GOLD). They are going up and up these 3 weeks.

They may be better hedges than Gold price and other stocks.

Look at this GOLD MINING SECTOR!!!

Taking a look at Gold ETF GLD

Dear Friends,

Seems like Gold, or Gold ETF "GLD" is consolidating these 2 days, after its great rise on Fri 1 June when the Jobs report comes up.

Looks likely to advance as it seems not to decrease a lot. Volume suggests accumulation.

Let us see if it breaks $158.3, the highest point reached 2 days back

If it breaks and close above, may rise further.


Tuesday, 5 June 2012

George Soros: Europe has 3 months to address crisis

Click below to access the article:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europe-has-3-months-to-address-crisis-soros-2012-06-03?link=MW_popular

香港股神曹仁超文章:一念富贵 一念闭翳


希腊大选后,新zf将决定未来希腊的命运。如希腊退出欧罗体系,欧罗区将蒙受5000亿欧罗亏损,西班牙、葡萄牙、爱尔兰甚至意大利的银行已面对 资金大量流失,存款户进一步将资金转存到其他银行(上周已有10亿欧罗由西班牙Bankia银行流失,该银行5月份已国有化),冲击十分大,但可以承受。

希腊流动存款只有1700亿欧罗,对整个欧罗区影响很微,但西班牙及意大利等却有3万亿欧罗,如引发信心危机颇麻烦。到时欧洲央行会否一如联储局一样提出「存款安全保证」?希腊脱离欧罗区后,新zf所发的新钞票有没有人相信?

一旦失去欧洲央行支持,希腊境内银行将全面崩溃,出现类似1932年美国华尔街大危机式的局面,令经济陷入萧条,甚至有可能令新zf无法行使管治权,因为PO–lice亦无粮出。

换言之,脱离欧罗区是十分愚蠢的决定,不但解决不了问题,反而令它恶化。

1997年7月以后的投资策略,是何时回避风险及何时拥抱它!有多少次你最初目的只是短线买卖,一旦出现亏损便将它变成长线投资(不肯止蚀)?又有 多少次你开始时是计划长线投资,面对10%到20%利润便把它卖掉,事后后悔莫及(忘记止蚀不止赚)?今年3月开始面对不稳定股市,许多时少做少错反而最 好。

It's not a good June to go Bullish!

Dear Friends,

Having studied the reports closely, we are looking bearish now. Check out the first week results of the economical reports:


Friday is the first day of the month. Upon looking at all the reports that were released last week, almost all miss their expectations. See the red figures on the actual column.

Today's Factory orders also missed expectations.

What does that mean?

All reports, no matter it is public or enterprise reports are likely to be worse than expectations in June. That means only one thing, the market might slide continuously down. I hope that there is a turnaround with some government stimulus this month.

Apart from that, I can't see reasons for any upside movement in the market now.

Just be very careful in going into ANY BULLISH position. Cash is king now. If not, take some bearish positions whenever possible. Of course I am saying that every stocks will go down. Some stocks will go up too. But note that market is not in your favour now.

But having said that, let us rejoice as I believe sunshine will come after every heavy rain. Without this fall, we would not have a strong rebound. 

Let us preserve our cash to double our profit whenever the market rebound.

Market Sentiment Indicator for 5 Jun

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 46.64% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)

2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 46.62% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 8 May)
(Nasdaq Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)  

3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 47.60% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(S&P500 Stocks has turned bearish)  

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 14.29%   (Bearish signal: Bear Alert again 1 Jun)
(Energy Sector has changed sentiment to bearish again after going bullish)
This shows that last week's Non farm has such a strong impact on energy stocks. But I am anticipating a bullish alert again.

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 61.73% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 14 May)
(S&P500 Financial stocks has turned bearish)

6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 29.87% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert confirmed 20 Apr)
(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bearish)


The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

Monday, 4 June 2012

What is the Trading Strategy for June now?

Dear Friends,

I am reluctant to say this but apparently after the disastrous Jobs report and the poor ISM report, June is a month where we need to be EXTRA careful. If your stop loss is reached, we encourage you to cut your loss. If you do not wish to cut your losing positions, the following are some strategies you might consider in June.

Some tips for trading in June:

1) Treat any upside with doubt. This is a volatile month. Grab any opportunities to be on the bearish side.

2) Consider doing some hedging against your bullish position if you are still holding to some stocks. One good way would be to short a weak stock while longing a strong one. This is called pair hedging. In a weak day, the weak stock will go down more than strong one. In a strong day, the strong one will increase more than the weak one.

3) Consider buying some commodites like GOLD and SILVER as there is anticipation of QE3. GOLD is now an alternative currency and may be a safe haven. May consider buying GOLD ETF "GLD" or SILVER ETF "SLV".

4) Consider taking a look at Defensive sector stocks like utilities companies. ie. Duke Energy (DUK) or Southern Energy (SO). They hit new high on Friday. You may buy them to hedge against more offensive stocks.

5) Try not to hold any bullish positions overnight as there are risks. Day trade more often.

6) If you would like to buy cheap stocks and hold for long term, make sure you divide your capital for each stock into 3 portions. Buy with only 1/3 of your capital allocated. When price of stock goes down by 1/3, buy again. Plan your average down position and price at the start.

7) Pay attention to any money printing hints from Europe and US now. Let us see if Ben Bernanke announce any hints on printing money on 19th June FOMC meeting.

8) Try to cut down on your overall position size when entering.

Regards
Daniel

--------------------------------------------------------------

Btw, we will be discussing on June Strategies more in our investment seminar below:

<<How should you invest in June now?>>
Where is the likely support of US Dow Jones and STI?


5 June (Tue) English Session 
Do recommend your friends to this workshop!

You shall learn
1) Strategies to invest in June
2) Outlook of Singapore and US market
3) How to still make money even when market goes down
4) How to Earn Rental Income every month from the Stock Market
5) Basics of Options and how to use it in a Down market

Date: 5 June (Tue) English Session    

Time: 7pm -10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


Speaker: Daniel Loh (Raffles Business International Director, Mr Hu Li Yang partner, US Stock & Options Trainer)

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Saturday, 2 June 2012

It is a GOLD play because market thinks there might be QE3!

Dear Friends,

Today we held a great Live trading session with our graduates. We together have spotted the rise in Gold price and Gold mining companies' prices because of the weak Jobs Reports! It was a disastrous report.

Yesterday I mentioned that today's ISM may be bad, and I really worry about Jobs report. Today the result is still beyond my surprise.

Non farm payroll report figure is 69,000 compared to the estimate of 151,000,  a SHORTFALL of more than 50%!!! Unemployment rate increase to 8.2% compared to estimate of 8.1%. ISM report is 53.5% compared to estimate of 54%.

I would say this is a disastrous result. It smacks the FED right in the face.

That is the very reason why today GOLD price shoots straight up. I am long on symbol: "GLD" (Gold's ETF) at this point. Wall street whisper is that there might be government stimulus. Especially the FOMC meeting on 19th June. I do not know if it is a coincidence that Greece election happens to be on the 17th June.

Let us listen carefully to what Big BEN say. If he mention any hint about QE3, GOLD and Stock price will fly.

In the meantime stocks will remain volatile. More selling would likely continue in June. There may be continuous worry till the Greece election.

Article on Wall street sentiment:
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/06/01/fed-will-act-in-wake-of-job-report-bbva%E2%80%99s-karp/

My position on GLD:

Regards
Daniel

Friday, 1 June 2012

US Stock Tip: Time to focus on Facebook??

Dear Friends,

I have been waiting on the sidelines watching this stock. I am amazed at how many people that got upset with the stock. There are even reports that Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Morgan Stanley are facing lawsuits.

We have mentioned before its IPO not to enter as this is an overhyped stock. I have seen exactly the same thing about VISA IPO and Baidu IPO. These 2 are great companies too! VISA had the largest IPO in history and Baidu is touted to be the Google in China. Both companies after their IPO day, did not do well after that. It takes a few months for them to get back to their feet again. Of course after proving themselves in their Earnings results, their stock price starts to increase.

For Facebook, I stated to let this company go bust first. Indeed it has. It dropped from $42 at opening IPO, to now $26.83 the lowest yesterday, a drop of 36% in 9 short days. But apparently, yesterday is the first day I saw some life in this company.

See the chart:


By 2pm, it suddenly turned up. See the last few minutes? It closed at the highest. No doubt, today this stock has a high chance to continue its climb. It might even gap up at open.Volume is high at closing.

It may be time to check out this stock. On Friday this is one stock that I will definitely pay attention to! Facebook has options already, it may be time to fire....

P.S. Any stock before its first Earnings announcement is definitely a speculative play. Not for the long term value investors....

Opinion on APPLE today

Dear Friends,

I have little doubt that that APPLE looks strong. She is waiting to burst through $580, which seems to be small resistance now. It is only a matter of time that she break through.

See my article yesterday:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/05/latest-update-on-apple-broke-575-as.html

I mentioned that $580 is the last barrier for it to fly. Today it opens high at $581 before collapsing to $571. Now it is back to $579. Can't break through convincingly yet. I thought that it has a chance of gapping up today, but it didn't as the economical reports did deter it from flying today.

Like I say, this maiden APPLE flight may be deterred if Friday reports are not good. So we have to see how the reports are 2moro. 

Yesterday one of the most respected hedge fund manager, David Einhorn, in Wall street commented on Apple, publicly gives his blessing to APPLE.
http://www.gurufocus.com/news/178474/david-einhorn-on-apple-inc-

David Einhorn thinks it is one of the most undervalued stocks in US and provided his reasons.

By the way David Einhorn is a know shortist. He likes to study the fundamentals of stocks, and short those that could not justify its valuation.

He has received extensive coverage in the financial press for short selling Allied Capital, Lehman Brothers and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters stock.

His past track record:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Einhorn_%28hedge_fund_manager%29

Just one word from him, stocks can go down 20-30% in one day. Recently Herballife suffered a 30% decline in one day because of this guy too.

The thing is if David Einhorn gets his name behind this stock, I think we should too! Fundamentally it is so undervalued now.


US Economical Reports today are bad, but Dow Amazingly climb back to Green!

Dear Friends,

I am totally surprised at how Dow came back today to green colour by mid day. It has been an amazing turnaround.

Look at below results for the details of the reports.


1) ADP employment report which measures private sector jobs is less than expectation. 133k to the forecast of 145k.

2) Unemployment claims which indicates how many people are jobless and go to government for help is more than forecast 383k compared to forecast of 369k.

3) Chicago PMI a private report which measures how enterprise are doing shows a disastrous 52.7%  compared to 56.7% forecast.

All 3 are bad and yet Dow Jones came back. It is really interesting to see how market reacts 2moro to ISM and Non-farm payroll.

Judging from today's play, market seems reluctant to drop amid the bad reports. It seems to suggest that it has dropped too much already. However I am worried about 2moro ISM and non-farm payroll report. I know ISM may be bad, and employment report seems a close call now.

So my strategy probably is not to hold overnight position as I think there are risks that 2moro if the reports are not that good, it might open lower.

However I also feel that , if 2moro Dow opens lower, there may be a chance for it to come back just like today. Not that easy a market to predict and trade now. Remember if Dow can rise for 3 consecutive days, it would indicate a short term bullish change in trend.

I encourage all to watch closely how the market reacts to the news. If you are playing Singapore stocks, do not enter position 2moro. If you are playing US market, better to take profits if possible by end of day today. There might be a chance to enter lower 2moro...

Rgds
Daniel


Radio FM958访谈 2018年11月15日:世界股市展望 - 现在是熊市吗?

·         美国 股市担心苹果业绩,巴菲特却大胆投资! 道琼斯昨晚闭市在 25080 ,掉了 205 点。在这 10 月 11 月道琼斯的波动都相当大。有很多投资朋友开始怀疑熊市是不是已经来临了。我的答案是还没有。这个跌幅反而是好时机进场。大家不用太担心。 ...