胡立阳: 明年全球经济仍维持“爬窟窿式”复苏

        国际股市好不容易才摆脱八月份美国信评遭StandardandPoor’s(S&P)由AAA调降为AA+的风波，近日来，却又再度受到欧元区债务危机的连番打击，全球金融市场动荡不安，投资人更是不知所措。

其实，早在2009年，我已发表一篇文章，大胆预测全球经济未来将一再爆发状况，掉进一个又一个的窟窿，然后再一次又一次的挣脱而出，就这般无止尽的循环。

现在，我将全文一字不改的再发一次，好让大家了解来龙去脉。

自从2008年第四季发生了金融海啸之后，果然是“雷声大、雨点小”，“来得快，去得快”。才不过短短的半年，全球各地就纷纷宣布，景气已经触底，各大企业也频频报出了优于预期的营收成果，这跟过去发生的大萧条哪能相比呢？

2009年中以来，一直有专家在为全球经济将是出现V型亦或是U型式的复苏争论不休，似乎对未来的经济仍怀有美丽的憧憬，但我却认为绝非如此！为什么呢？想知道答案，就必须先回到金融海啸前，甚至更往前推，回到七、八年前的起始点。

在那段期间，欧美的股市与房市虽出现了倍数的成长，但那其实只是虚胖而已，主要只是那些不满足于低利率而窜逃出来的游资所吹出来的大泡泡。

为什么会存在低利率的现象？那就是反应出产业需求低迷，因为经济已经长期陷于不冷不热、不死不活的窘况。

因此，大家现在寄望的经济复苏，顶多不过是先回到过去一滩止水的原地而已。哪有可能出现一飞冲天式的V型或是U型的反转呢？

如果用图型来说明，我认为用“窟窿”型来表达最为恰当了！怎么说呢？就像是在一个有如一滩止水的经济平面上，陆续的出现了因少数不良衍生性金融商品所引起的 次贷风波、炒高油价所引发的衰退、雷曼倒闭所导致的金融风暴、冰岛破产、杜拜债务事件、希腊债务事件……一个又一个、大大小小的窟窿，而经济虽然逃过了大 劫，但仍不得不一次又一次的从这些窟窿中挣扎出来，然后再次掉入新的窟窿，就这样无止尽的循环！

我想要说，别奢望全球景气能在一夕之间由丑小鸭变成白天鹅，它没有这种神奇的魔力。

美国带头实行低利率政策，原本是为提振生产、刺激景气。但目前全球利率似乎像是一起睡着了般的毫无动静，说明了经济发展仍然乏善可陈，企业普遍不急着扩充生产设备，因此，想要见到真正的繁荣，未来还有漫长且崎岖的路要走。

好的，可以下一个简单的结论了！

美国甚至全球主要股市、房市自谷底反弹以来，已经涨得太急、太猛，才不过短短的一年，我又嗅到了炒作的味道，被超低利率逼得到处流窜的热钱，似乎又要开始兴风作浪了！

未来，我们还要注意观察因资金泛滥所造成的假性通胀，是否会卷土重来？倘若成真，投资人对于油价、原物料以及大宗商品价格旧戏重演的再次飙升，最好先要有心理准备！

环顾当前情势，证明我在2、3年前的判断完全正确。重点是，我现在的看法仍是丝毫未变，认为2012年全球经济复苏之路，依然会是颠簸难行，一路上还要遇上大大小小的窟窿来不断挑战地球人的耐心与解决问题的能力。此刻，我们也只能以平静的心来面对吧!

Will STI bottom at 2640??

Dear Friends!

After my last email, Dow Jones and STI began a 5 days slide. Dow Jones drop 300 points while STI drops 150 points this week.

Some of you ask: How is STI now? Let us look at the STI chart in the attachment.

From the chart, you can see that there is a Box pattern forming: Box Top (resistance at 2910) Box Bottom (Support at 2640). The fall in October to 2530 is what Mr Hu Li Yang calls an Untidy Box re-arrangement. It suddenly drops too much out of the box. If it falls too much, it will rise back up again. A Tidy good Box re-arrangement has a time period of at least 3 months.

So based on Mr Hu Li Yang's teachings, how is the STI now?

1) Look at how the STI is these few days. Especially these 3 days. See if it drops off 2640 without climbing back. My opinion is if it drops off 2600, it will go into another box with bottom at 2400.

2) If STI climbs above 2640, and makes a good run off 2640, this figure will hold, and STI will enjoy a run up to 2910. Of course, 2800 is still a small resistance. It is the 50% mark between 2910 and 2640.

Btw, US data continues to show great reports with good Jobless claims report and improved manufacturing data. Good news amid the darn Europe problems.

After the last email when I indicate a case study on a stock: China Aviation Oil. I have again attached its chart for us to study. It has gone according to what I say. After breaking $1, it may test $1. In fact it keeps on hammering $1 these few days and has shown remarkable resilience at $1, even when STI drop so much this week. This is the type of stock to watch closely! Let us see if it flys when STI rises...


Btw, I would be giving a FREE seminar on <Singapore Stock Training Course>.

<Please let your friends know by forwarding & emailing them to come for course to get them educated! Thank you!>


Date: 23rd Dec 2011, Fri    Time: 2pm - 5pm      (Chinese)    (30 seats available)
Date: 27th Dec 2011, Tue    Time: 7pm - 10pm   (Chinese)    (FULL!)
Date: 4th Jan 2012,   Wed   Time: 7pm - 10pm   (English)
Venue: 141 cecil street, tung ann association building S(069541), tanjong pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light

Topics touched:

1) Mr Hu Li Yang's market views of year 2012
2) Technical Analysis Secrets revealed:     a) Determining Breakout and failed breakout
    b) How to use Oscillators to the best effect
    c) Moving Averages uses and its applications
    d) A system that multiplies your return 3 times by spending just 5 minutes a week

Speaker: Daniel Loh (whole session)


To Book:  Pls reply email your <Name><Telephone><Email><No of seats><Date> to book your seats NOW!

Best Rgds
Daniel LohStock Trainer
Asia Stock Guru Mr Hu Li Yang partner

(Pls note that this email is solely for educational purpose only. There is no recommendation whatsoever to buy any stock. Any stocks or position taken should be studied carefully before taking any positions.)

Singapore Stock Tip (using ART system): China Aviation Oil - a Forgotten Old stock coming Alive

Dear Friends,

Today I browsed across this Singapore Stock while using our team's invented stock scanning system: ART system - Swing Trade.

It has been some years since I talked about a Singapore Stock.

Let us study this old forgotten stock, China Aviation Oil. (See attachment for Chart)

This is what I called a Triple Top Breakout, with high Volume supporting! This best thing is the Box Top (what Mr Hu Li Yang mentioned: 箱顶) is a perfect round figure of $1. This is what I called a no-brainer 99% trade. A breakthrough through this resistance has potential.

My view is there are 2 opportunities to such a trade:

1) Enter at breakout with half the amt you wish to trade, put stop loss 10% below, like $0.95.
2) Wait for pull back to Box bottom now at $1 (if it ever bounce back) , wait for the candle to stand above $1, before entering another half of your position, putting a stop loss 10% below again.
    P.S.: waiting for a pullback b4 entering has a higher chance of success as all shorting traders has failed if it lifts off $1 again!
3) First resistance is $1.1, 2nd resistance is $1.2.
4) Once it reach $1.1, and u are greedy, pls put your stop loss at breakeven $1, it will rest a while b4 trying at $1.2.
5) But pls sell all at $1.2 if you are playing short term.

Let us study how this trade goes. Watch carefully!

Btw, the arrows in the ART system is a programme invented by our team to indicate buying or selling points with tremendous accuracy. It can scan all 600 stocks with buying or shorting arrows appearing, making trading so easy and friendly.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you would like to know more about this ART system, join our Singapore stock training course on 12 Dec 2011 or 15 Dec 2011 or 28 Dec 2011.

Date: 12th Dec 2011, Monday     Time: 7pm - 10pm (FULL)
Date: 15th Dec 2011, Thursday   Time: 7pm - 10pm (20 seats left only!)
Date: 27th Dec 2011, Tuesday    Time: 7pm - 10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, tung ann association building S(069541), tanjong pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light

Topics touched: Mr Hu Li Yang's market views of year 2012 and Technical Analysis Secrets revealed

Speaker: Daniel Loh (whole session)


To Book:  Pls reply email your <Name><Telephone><Email><No of seats> to book your seats NOW!

Best Rgds
Daniel LohStock Trainer
Asia Stock Guru Mr Hu Li Yang partner
(Pls note that this email is solely for educational purpose only. There is no recommendation whatsoever to buy any stock. Any stocks or position taken should be studied carefully before taking any positions.)

ROSY December, Grab Energy Stocks Now!

Dear Friends,

Good work! A pat on the back for me, ha!

As I have mentioned in my email on 24th November, if there is a turnaround, 30th November 2011 is the date. Did u see my email? See below. Exactly on that day, Dow Jones increased by a whopping 400+ points. Can u imagine on the day that I wrote the email on the 24th Nov, it was reported that Dow Jones is poised to register the worst November in 60 years of American history. It turned around beautifully.

Guess how did I know. Yes, I have been tracking US economical reports for the last 5 years. My philosophy in trading: Fundamental economic report drives the market, Technical provides support and resistance. No chartists in the world could have ever predicted such a rally on the 30th November!

After last week Non farm payroll/ unemployment rate & ISM report, you would notice that, Non farm payroll did not beat expectation, while ISM did. Some of you may have think employment report is a letdown. Think otherwise! Unemployment rate decreased to 8.6%, the best since the last bear market. It's an unexpected great news! Like what I mention in last email, I expected a good Jobs report. It did.

Having said that, what is the plan for December?

1) Great to accumulate some stock positions now. Technology, Energy, Healthcare, Retail all showing a turnaound.

2) Play Energy Sector NOW!!!!! Play OIL Futures, Index like "OIL", or any oil stocks you can grab! Crude Oil is making a run now! The price now is $101.57. It has the potential to reach $110. Energy stocks still in Oversold territory!

3) Play Retail Sector till January because of the christmas season! No joke, Black Friday after thanksgiving shows the highest amount of revenue collected showing that US people are getting ready for spending, making Retail stocks a fantastic buy, especially with earnings coming up in January.
4) Forget about shorting stocks NOW, like what some Gurus teach. U will be punished.

Instead enjoy your christmas season!


Btw, I will be having a FREE <<Understanding of the US stock market & how it affects Singapore market>> workshop on the 22nd December for you to understand about US market (in my opinion the best stock market in the world)!

Past options graduates, pls recommend your friends to this workshop or help to forward this mail to them, thanks.

Date: 22 Dec 2011, Thursday
Time: 7pm - 10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light

For Registration: Pls reply <Name><Email><HP>

Thank you and with regards!

Daniel
Stock and Options trainer
Asia Stock Guru Mr Hu Li Yang's partner

Santa Claus Rally has probably BEGUN!!!

Dear Friends,

What a result in US today! US up by 400 points. Pls do not miss this opportunity of making it big this month in December. Get ready for the run. With today's GREAT Chicago PMI and ADP employment report,  I foresee a good ISM and Non Farm payroll. But of course, we still need to see Thu and Fri!  2moro morning China PMI is something we need to pay attention too.

Get your weapons ready go for a Straight Call instead when that happens! This will only be taught in Advanced Options Class! Search for the correct stocks NOW!

Eg. IBM Triple Top Alert at $190, may enter if it breaks $190.22

For those that have not participate in my Advanced Options Course, pls do not miss this perfect opportunity of coming this Saturday, 3 Dec 2011.

Price will be raised after this! If you think that a few hundred of dollars for this options course is high, what about the money lost in Stocks?

In this Advanced course, I would be teaching

1) How to DAY TRADE options;
2) How to SPOT the RIGHT stocks going on a BIG Move up just in a few days;
3) How to know the DEMAND and SUPPLY of Stocks from Point and Figure, P&F Charts;
4) How to know which is the HOT sector to play this month
5) How to SPOT the market trend using a Technical Indicator that Nobody in Singapore has taught before, but with EXTREME ACCURACY (a forgotten old indicator used by traders 50 years ago)


To know the price of the course & further dates , pls call our maketing manager, Venetia @ 98755178.

Regards
Daniel

Mr Hu Li Yang says STI 2640 is a good entry point!

Dear Friends,

Last saturday, as mentioned in last email, I attended Mr Hu Li Yang seminar at YMCA. There is one news I must reveal to you first.

MR HU LI YANG, (Asia Leading Stock Guru) says STI can buy at 2640!  He said that on Saturday. If you attended the talk like me, you will know!

Looking at today's 50 points gain from 2640 (exactly what Mr Hu Li Yang says), and tonight Dow Jones 300 points gain, it seems that Mr Hu got it pinpoint right again!!!

Amazing right?!

2moro, STI will continue its climb and gap up at open.

But be aware of STI at 2910!

Btw, I will reveal to you all how Mr Hu Li Yang got the figures 2640 and 2910 in a FREE Basic Stock Options Course.

However sad to let you know, our classes for this week and next week are all FULL.

Our next available class is 12th Dec 2011, Monday.

Pls register if you want to learn. If not, currrently no other dates are available. BRING your investment friends 2!

Date: 12th Dec 2011, Monday.
Time: 7pm - 10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, tung ann association building S(069541), tanjong pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light
Topics touched: Mr Hu Li Yang's views (sharing by Daniel)
                        and Technical Analysis secrets revealed

Pls reply your <Name><Telephone><Email><No of seats> to book your seat NOW.

Rgds
Daniel

Why do we lose $ in stocks?

Dear Friends,

Do you know why many investors lose money in Stocks, Futures, Forex or Options? The problem lies with money management!  Nobody is 100% right in investment. We are bound to make mistakes sometimes. The important thing is when we are wrong, how much do we lose? Today I am going to share with you a simple money management practice, but yet a lot of us didn't practise. This big secret will put us in a good position to not lose $ most of the times.

Do you wish to know what this BIG SECRET is?

That is When we win some $, put your stop loss at your "breakeven point". Let us think back... Are there a lot of times when we make a bit of money, we turned greedy. We want to make more! We do not want to exit. This happen to me all the times! Yes, I admit I am normal too! However, sometimes, the stock price begin to drop back to breakeven point.

May I have a show of hands, how many of you would exit at breakeven now? Not many! This is human nature, we always think that when we have a paper profit and stock begin to drop back to breakeven, we are hesitant to sell. We convince ourselves that this "strong" stock will run up again. We are not willing to lose the $30 commission, right? Oh mind, because of this $30, we lose thousands!!!

Let me show you a stock which I entered recently. Do you remember last month I last everybody take note of Apple? I feel after Apple report came out, it gap down $20, to $400. I entered an option. At first, it was good, I caught it at the bottom, it started to rise to $407. On paper, I earned US$2500 within 30 minutes. I feel that it will run somemore. So I put my stop loss at my breakeven point. And indeed in midday, the stock begin to drop. When I was sleeping, it exited. But I still make US$165. <Pls see attachment to learn>

I believe if we continuously have this habit not to lose $. In the long run, we will definitely make $ in investment, don't u think so?


Btw, we are having a Singapore Stocks Seminar next week in Chinese.

Date: Thu, 24 Nov 2011:  7pm - 10pm & Fri, 25 Nov 2011 (Pls attend both sessions)
Price:  Free for 1st 50 people who register

Venue: 141 cecil st, tung ann assoication building #07-02, s(069541)
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80 m, opp traffic light

Pls email <Name><Telephone><No of seats> back to book your seats!  Confirmation SMS will be sent to u!

Rgds
Daniel
-----------------------------------------------------

各位亲爱的投资朋友，

大家想知道为什么大多数的投资朋友在股票，期货，外汇或期权都输钱吗？就是因为资金管理问题！没有人每次判断股票都100%准确，总会有失误的时候。当你判断错误了，好的资金管理习惯能让我们不输或少输钱。今天想跟大家分享一个很简单但很多人不做的习惯。他可以让您常胜不败！

那这个天大的秘密是什么？

就是当你赚一点钱的时候，就把止损点放在"无亏盈" breakeven 的价位。我们回想一下，是不是很多时候，当我们股票赚钱时，想赚更多，不想放。可是天不作美，股价掉回breakeven point。请问有多少人这个时候会卖掉？没有几个朋友的！因为人性都认为本来因该赚钱的，现在掉回来，不甘心。拼命说服自己股票一定会跑，为了不亏$30的commission，我们不卖股票。结果股票就亏了几千块钱！很可笑，对不对？

我给大家看一个案例。我最近不是呼吁大家买Apple吗？我觉得Apple这支股票报告不好，跳下$20, 到了$400，进场买期权。开始非常好，因为当天开市抓到低点！结果这支股票跑到$407，我账面上赚了US$2500。我想可能他会继续跑。我的第一个习惯就是放止损点在breakeven价位。结果我判断错误了，下午股票回来，我睡觉时，就出了。可是各位朋友，我还赚了$165。《请看attachment》。

我相信只要我们玩股票保持这个确保尽量不输钱的习惯，长期下来，我们一定是赚钱的，你同意吗？

希望大家赚钱！

我们下个星期会办一场投资新加坡股票课程

日期: Thu, 24 Nov 2011:  7pm - 10pm & Fri, 25 Nov 2011 (请两个时间都来！讲不一样的东西)
价格:  前 50 位报名者免费

地点: 141 cecil st, tung ann assoication building #07-02, s(069541)
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80 m, opp traffic light

请 email <名><电话><几个席位> 回来确定!  我们会发确认SMS给你!

谢谢
Daniel

Will the stock market turnaround come next Wednesday 30th Nov?

Dear Friends,

It has not been a good month so far. Dow Jones has decreased 700 points since the start of November. Looking back, the ISM report and the Non farm payroll that did not beat expectation plays a part in this month downfall. As I have mentioned so many times, ISM is the mother of all enterprise reports and Non farm payroll is the mother of all public reports. When ISM n non farm payroll did not beat expectations, we need to be extra careful as it signifies that other enterprise reports and public reports might be weak this month.

Indeed it has. This month has again reconfirm my conviction that we should always pay attention to the first week of every month! Of course apart from the reports, Europe again played a major role in weakening the stock market. The PMI by China yesterday (same as ISM in USA) didn't help.

My suggestion is to wait for mid of next week, in particular, Wed n Thu. If there is a turnaround, it will happen mid of next week. For December, Jobs report should be better than expectation. My only concern is the ISM report on Thursday. Analysts are expecting a growth of 1.2% from last month. Let us see if it beats....

I will be going to Mr Hu Li Yang seminar on sat at YMCA. Shall brief u on his views of the market.


Btw, becos of the overwhelming response this week, we are having another Singapore Stocks Seminar next week in Chinese.

Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2011:  7pm - 10pm & Thu, 1 Dec 2011 (Pls attend both sessions)
Price:  Free

Venue: 141 cecil st, tung ann assoication building #07-02, s(069541)
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80 m, opp traffic light

Pls email <Name><Telephone><No of seats> back to book your seats!  Confirmation SMS will be sent to u!

Rgds
Daniel

How is November market?

Dear Friends,

It has been a great October. October climb is nothing less than spectacular. Dow Jones has climbed from 10400 points up to 12300 points, 2000 points in less than 1 month. I heard from CNBC that this has been one of the best 4 months, like in 26 years of Dow history. Wow! Applause!

I have stated that we must always pay attention to economical reports to know any market direction. In fact I emailed everybody during the first week of October to start accumulating position as I feel that market confidence is back. In mid of October, some traders think there might be a consolidation. On the last email on 19th October (see below), I still continued my stand to accumulate position!

So far so good! There have been some kind friends after my last email warning me that I might be wrong. I have also heard some trainers in Singapore continuously asking people to short index in mid October. Please don't do so now!! Market confidence is back. Be careful of shorting!

My views and stats for this month after the first week:

1)  ISM and Nonfarm payroll both did not beat expectation this month, resulting in down days on both days of results last week. As a trader, I normally have a habit. Today I am going to share with you something important and from my years trading in US market: As a trader, you need to pay special attention to how the market reacts to a bad report day to gauge the market confidence. Especially after a bad economical report day, to see whether it recovers.

In trading, the economical data is not important. It is how the market reacts to the data afterward that is important! If you notice, after a bad tuesday ISM last week, market recovers on Wednesday and Thursday.

On Friday, Dow Jones opened 160 points in the red after a bad nonfarm payroll, only to recover to negative 60 points at close of day. My view is that this shows some confidence in the market. The stock market is somewhat quite resilient.

2)  Like what Mr Hu Li Yang, index travels in boxes. See attachment. See how Dow breaks its box top at 11600. 3 days above, Mr Hu Li Yang says, the index will travel to another box. Based on this theory, the next target is 12700 points! Big resistance there, which is also near the 2 times selling pressure. For those that attend his class or my Stocks Course will know what I meant. It seems that 11600 is a strong support now after dropping to test this support once and rebounded up

3)  I believe Dow jones might continue its climb, but definitely at a slower pace than October as there will be some results not beating expectation this month

4)  I feel good about Europe now temporarily that the government is coming to a consensus to help Greece.

5)  Please do not short your stocks now unless there is a clear change in the direction. I don't see the market falling hard now. Would inform you if I feel a change.

6)  Pay attention to the first 3 trading days this week, as we shall see how market reacts after last Friday disappointing Non Farm payroll. This might determine the direction of this month.


Happy Trading!

Regards
Daniel

Having Dinner with Mr Hu Li Yang (Asian Leading Stock Guru)

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