Friday, 31 August 2012

Will there be disappointment 2moro in Jackson Hole afterall?

Dear Friends, 
After hearing the news from CNBC and watching how the market goes, I think it is not surprising anymore that we think Bernanke probably might not have QE3 2moro. 
As a contrarian, I think maybe 2moro might not be that bad afterall. The market always can be fickle minded and go against what most of us think. If Ben Bernanke gives any hints that is enough, the market might go up instead of being disappointed.
But having said that, I am not taking anything for granted by liquidating my positions today.

My game plan for 2moro may be to prepare myself to look at "SLV" (silver ETF). If there is hint, no doubt Silver and Gold will ascent. If there isn't, shorting "SLV" is an alternative.
But I will also take note that Monday is Labor Day for US, so a holiday. Probably I would take up any stocks position over the weekend. 
Btw, Ben Bernanke might reveal some hints on the Jobs report coming out next week which I would take into consideration regarding my trading strategy next week!
Though today I lose some of my profits due to early profit taking by the market, but it is still not a bad 2 trading days with a US$3585 profit in 2 trading days, a 10% ROI.
If you would like to know more about US market and how the stock market will function ahead of US election, join me in a Free Investment Seminar...
 ----------------------------------------------
Free Investment Seminar 
“How To Navigate The Stock Market Months Ahead Of US Election?”
- Will Dow Jones and STI make a New High?
You shall learn:
1) Secrets of the US market and how to predict the market trend
2) Outlook for the Singapore and US markets
3) Picking the right stocks using chart pattern and fundamentals
4) How to earn rental income from the stock market every month

Speaker: Daniel Loh
- Raffles Business International Director/Investment Coach
- SIAS trainer


Date: 11 September, Tuesday (English Session)
          12 September, Wednesday (Chinese Session)
Time: 7pm-10pm

Venue: 141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building #07-02 S(069541)
(Tanjong Pagar MRT Exit G – Walk straight for 80 meters, opposite the traffic light)

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Thursday, 30 August 2012

Singapore goes down $30, when is a good chance to go in?

Dear Friends,

If STI does not go down, there would not be opportunities to buy your stocks at a discounted price. It is just a matter of when to enter now. Like what we mentioned in the previous article, I am liquidating my short term positions ahead of Ben Bernanke speech. In fact I think today's fall in Singapore and Hong Kong market is a reaction by the short term traders liquidating some of their positions.

Remember that traders normally do not like risk. And exposing ourselves to an unpredictable decision by the FED involves risk.

I am on the sidelines now waiting patiently to see the reaction of the market these 3 days. Firstly, my eyes will be focused on tonight Jobless claims at 8.30pm US Eastern Time. It will give a glimpse of what might be the outcome of the Non Farm payroll next Friday, and whether I should take the chance to enter next week.

2moro, my feeling is that probably there would not be QE3. So I actually am in the sidelines waiting for the market to react disappointingly. If not, there might not be a chance for me to enter the market.

Next Monday, ISM report  will tell me about the strength of the US enterprises .

Of course, if things go bad, I will be looking to a triple digit increase next week to find confidence back in the US market.

This week is crunch time. Get your weapons ready. There isn't any reason to panic yet. Instead there might be opportunities round the corner.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com


Stocks Coffeeshop Seminar on Singapore Stocks

Join us for a Singapore Stock Workshop:  Stocks Coffeeshop Talk on Singapore Stocks

Join us to know how to select the right local stocks!

If you have problems with your stocks, join investment specialist Daniel Loh and Andy Yew to help you analyse your portfolio.

You shall learn:

1) How to pick the Good and Right Stock
2) Technical Analysis
3) Stock Market Outlook for next 2 weeks

Speaker: Daniel Loh and Andy Yew (Singapore Stock Specialist and ART system founder)

Date: 30 August, Thursday (English Session)
          31 August, Friday      (Chinese Session)


Time: 7pm -10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Market Sentiment Indicator for 30 Aug

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 62.84% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 3 Jul)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bullish)


2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 54.55% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 5 Jul)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 71.00% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 18 Jun)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 84.44%   (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 7 Jun)
(Energy Sector has changed sentiment to bullish)

**Energy Stocks may turn Bearish in the next 3 weeks

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 71.60% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 22 Aug)
(Energy Sector has changed sentiment to bullish)


6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 64.56% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 27 Jul)

(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bullish)
 
 
The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector


A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

Wednesday, 29 August 2012

Get Ready for a dissapointment at Jackson Hole, and when to buy?

Dear Friends,

As a trader, I am always looking forward to news and events and reports that might give me a glimpse of what is going to happen next. That is how I always gain a step ahead of the market. Trading is a tough world. We need to gain whatever advantage we have over the retailers. The thing is my habit is always to have a plan A and plan B.


Some things to watch out for if you are worrying about your next step:

1) My gut feeling is that this Friday at the annual Jackson Hole meeting, Ben Bernanke would not announce any QE3. So if I have short term positions, I might want to exit first going into Friday. For Singapore stocks, I would exit on Friday. For US Stocks, I would exit before 10am on Friday America time.

If you are a mid term trader (2-3 months), continue to hold your positions as we are still optimistic about the stock market ahead.

2) If there is a disappointment, depending on the severity (the market will tell you), I would react accordingly. The more disappointed the market is, the better for me as I will be waiting to enter to buy stocks at a discounted price for short term trades. The thing is the market will come back with expectation of another QE3 at the next FOMC meeting on 12th and 13th September.

Any fall in the market before that FOMC meeting is a great opportunity to accumulate short term position!

3) I am also keeping a lookout on the US jobless claims this thursday and next thursday. It will give me a glimpse of the job situation in the month of August.

If both are worse than expectations, be prepared to liquidate whatever positions going into next friday! Job reports like the Non farm payroll might have a chance to fall below expectations. If that happens, I would go  into the market the following Monday and hold my stocks for a longer duration.

If both jobless claims are better than expectations, I would hold my stock positions through next Friday as the market have a high chance of reacting positively to better jobs situation.


4) If there is a positive QE3 statement that will be announced on Friday's Jackson Hole Meeting and welcomed by the market, I would pounce on accumulating my Silver positions (silver ETF, symbol SLV), my US stocks on Friday and Singapore Stocks next Monday.

I know that a lot of the investors do not like the hassle of studying these fundamental news and focus totally on charting. I feel charting is only one part of trading and to be good trader, knowing economical news and its applications are important too!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Hurricane Issac swamps America, is there an opportunity?

Dear Friends,

7 years ago, America suffered from Hurricane Katrina. Now we have Issac.

See this article:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-slips-as-storm-shutdowns-ease-demand-2012-08-28

Will there be a rise in the oil price or natural gas? The last time round natural gas price for Katrina shot up. Currently this round, there has not been such a sight yet. But today crude did go up 60 cents.

I feel that this time round, America is quite prepared. It would not be as bad as Katrina 7 years ago when Americans are caught unaware. So I think Crude oil this time would not shoot up terribly. But having said that, there might still be some opportunities.

Let us continue to watch the progress. Today CNBC keeps focusing on this hurricane... we keeping a lookout also.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Singapore Stock Tip: Did you make $ from Asiasons as we mentioned?

Dear Friends,

Will Asiasons continue its flight higher? Currently we have not seen any danger in this stock. It should continue its ascent higher.

In fact our graduates have been making good money out of this stock. Check out our article:

http://www.danielloh.com/2012/08/singapore-stock-tip-asiasons-stock-in.html

On 17th August we mentioned it should break new high and is consolidating then. It did. Currently we still maintain our target at 67cents. Today it is 62.5cents.

Is trading that hard? Only when you don't understand the market and stock.

Good luck trading!

Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Tuesday, 28 August 2012

What to Do with Sakari after gapping up 40cts?

Dear Friends,

We have been urging you to buy Sakari since 26th July as we think it has good fundamentals just like Ezion.

http://www.danielloh.com/2012/07/what-us-and-singapore-stocks-to-look-at.html

Well, we did not know that it be acquired. But that is the good thing about good fundamentals company. It will come back.

But one friend asked me what to do with Sakari?

Well easy, my answer is to SELL it! At least half of it, if you have. If you are looking of going into it, I suggest there are other stocks..

Based on my analysis, there isn't any much upside now... $2 being a strong resistance...it needs to consolidate. I do not know if it will be delisted, but if it did not, $2 will be a main barrier for this stock. Not much upside.

Switch your stock now! Dont buy these few days.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com


Friday, 24 August 2012

The first Triple Digit Decrease in Dow in 24 trading days

Dear Friends,

Yesterday marked the first triple digit decrease in Dow Jones for the last 24 trading sessions, which is month than a month. This seems to give the FED a smack in the face after the positive expectations generated 2 days ago.

Like what we previously mentioned, I always pay attention whenever Dow Jones falls by 100 points. There may be a temporarily halt to the powerful rally.

In fact as a trader, I like this pause. Only when Dow Jones pause, it can rise further. This is a pause that will enable us to get on the bus.

My trading strategy would be to watch Dow Jones carefully. For my long term positions, I continue to hold. For my short term positions, I liquidated.

Dow is at 13057 at closing yesterday.

For short term play:

1) Take note these few days: If Dow Jones comes back to 13150 again in these couple of days, that means it has recovered after these 4 straight days fall and might be ready to challenge 13330 high again.

2) If there is a triple digit gain, this may be a signal that Dow Jones has regained a bit of its composure and confidence.

3) If Dow continues to be in the red, let us continue to remain in the sideline.

4) If possible, these few days take note of any stock that did not fall much and hangs there. These may be the stocks you want to invest in when market turns good.

5) Next week Friday, there be a Jackson Hole meeting by the FED, we see if next week the market rebounds with QE3 expectation again.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Thursday, 23 August 2012

王冠一錦囊 2012 08 22 :蘋果臉書 差天共地

周一美股大致平收,三大指數中,道指微跌3點,納指和標普500指數均下跌不足1點,但表面一潭死水般的市況,卻也不乏值得討論的亮點。

蘋果公司及臉書(Facebook)兩大科網股的投資者,周一可謂百般滋味在心頭。蘋果公司股價在新iPhone快將推出,於9月12日便會公布最新版本 詳情的傳言帶動下邁向新高,以破頂收市價每股665.15美元計算,市值達6,235億,超越微軟(Microsoft)於1999年12月締造的 6,206億美元,成為史上市值最高的上市公司。

蘋果公司於15年前曾經陷入破產邊緣,多得微軟出手襄助,斥1.5億美元助其度過難關。教主喬布斯回歸後,蘋果公司展開新章,透過科技創新和產品推陳出 新,改變了科技、電信和媒體業生態,只靠寥寥數項產品──iMac、iPod、iPhone和iPad,便把公司推向一個又一個新高峯。

自2009年1月iPhone推出以來,蘋果公司的股價在不足4年內漲了接近7倍,若由去年10月起計,股價亦翻了一番。反觀微軟已自高峰滑落,以周一收 市價每股30.74美元計算,市值為2,577億美元,未及蘋果公司一半,而去年8月市值與蘋果公司叮噹馬頭的埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil),周一 市值為4,060億美元,亦被蘋果公司遠遠甩在後頭。

同樣是萬眾矚目科網股的Facebook,周一升逾5%,升幅更勝蘋果公司的2.63%,但Facebook投資者卻未感歡欣,因為Facebook股價 盤中曾經跌至18.75美元的新低,較5月17日上市時招股價的38美元蒸發了一半有多。雖然Facebook仍是最受歡迎的社交網站之一,但與蘋果公司 不同的是,後者擁有熱賣產品,收入穩定,前者則市場對其支出計劃和營收能力感疑惑,亦質疑其招股價定得過高,以致此家以市值計美國歷來最大型IPO公司於 掛牌後便沽壓不斷。

另一促使Facebook股價受壓的原因,是開始有首次公開發行(IPO)前凍結的限售股分解禁,導致供應量大增。上周四市場供應增加了2.71億股,而 今年10月、11月、12月和明年5月將陸續有限售股解禁,股票流通量會增加16.4億股,勢必令Facebook股價進一步受壓。

更令投資者對Facebook信心動搖的是,大股東兼PayPal共同創辦人的希爾(Peter Thiel)亦不斷減持Facebook股票,繼上市日以38美元配售1,680萬股後,上周四、五兩天再以平均每股19.27美元至20.69美元價位 賣出約 2000萬股解禁股分,套現逾4億美元。希爾是首名Facebook外部投資者,於2004年注資50萬美元換取1成Facebook股權,套現逾10億 美元後,仍持有560萬股,可算是一本萬利。

市場對兩家公司的前景看法亦差天共地。Facebook活躍用戶雖眾,最大問題是行動版本沒有任何廣告版位,亦未找到把客戶群轉成營運收入的獲利模式,以 致「每戶營收貢獻值」 (Averaged Revenue Per User, ARPU) 停滯不前,無法增加盈利去支持股價,反而蘋果公司的產品仍在熱賣,消費者對新產品亦翹首以待,股價雖在不足1年漲了1倍,但期間銷售收入卻增長了接近2 倍,以市盈率計算,股價更比去年10月便宜,再加上蘋果公司作出了近20年首度派發股息的決定,於8月16日支付了每股2.65美元股息,亦利好股價表 現。

分析師把蘋果公司未來1年目標價定在721.4美元,更有分析師估計股價可朝1,000美元進發,但只要蘋果公司股價升抵900美元,其市值便會高達 8000億,較美國政府於08年推出問題資產紓困計劃(TARP)和財政刺激計劃的規模更大,一家公司已足以撐起半天,印象中亦只有全盛時期的諾基亞對芬 蘭經濟的貢獻能做到。1997年瀕臨倒閉的蘋果公司,於15年時間由地獄攀上天堂,如今更是如日方中,有餘未盡,實在是個奇蹟。 

曾淵滄專欄 2012 08 23 :等放水等到唔耐煩

前幾天,恒指總是先跌後回穩,有跌不下去的感覺。可惜,昨日就無法反彈,一開市就跌破兩萬點,然後全日於低位徘徊,收市時19900點也守不住。

市場上沒有甚麼壞消息,但是也沒有好消息。歐洲央行、美國聯儲局、中國人民銀行都沒有放鬆貨幣供應的行動,大量投資者等了一天又一天,等到不耐煩了。
 
推薦博客:投資錦囊

中美歐均無行動

德國總理默克爾早排出口術,說支持歐央行的撐歐元言論,結果歐元滙率回升,西班牙國債利率下降。如此一來,歐債危機短期內似乎無咗問題,歐央行也不必實際行動。

美國和中國的情況也類似,通脹猛於虎,人人都知道狂印鈔票的結果是通脹,如可不印當然不印,可不現在印,就不妨拖一拖,等下一次風暴再發生時才考慮。

中、美、歐三大央行按兵不動,股市也沒有了方向,只剩下玩衍生工具的人在炒波幅,成交非常集中於數隻恒指成份股中的重磅股。

當然,如果美股能大幅造好,再創新高,也能推動港股向上。目前美國經濟雖然低迷,失業率仍高,但是企業盈利表現不錯,支持了股價。

過去一段時間,內地傳媒經常報道一些上市企業的壞消息,有些還是傳媒自己發掘出來的,這些報道自然會影響股價。美國的渾水公司會挖掘上市公司不利因素,並在公佈其報告前,先行沽空,以待報道出爐後獲利。

但中國股市難以沽空,內地傳媒做此動作並無實際的金錢利益,應該純粹是傳媒的專業精神,與傳媒間競爭所導致的現象。但個別股份的壞消息多了,也影響了大市的氣氛。

Get in the STOCK Market now!

Dear Friends,

Do not miss this opportunity with QE3 expectation coming. Park some of your money in the stock market or else you will miss this fabulous run towards Obama election.

Get in on a good stock that goes up when earnings news are released. Get in on stocks that beat the earnings and show good results this quarter.

With QE3 anticipation on the way, the market won't drop much. And even if it drops, make sure you go in BUY somemore. This bull run might be the BEST in this 4 years.

Get ready for an EARLY Christmas Rally this year!!!

LET us make some big bucks together.

HUAT AH!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

QE3 active discussion by FED, bringing optimism!

Dear Friends,

This is interesting. Today Fed minutes gives some signs that QE3 might be in the pipeline.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-minutes-show-active-discussion-of-qe3-2012-08-22-14103110?link=MW_home_latest_news

They said there will be a discussion if there is a QE3 in their next FOMC meeting in september.

Now Dow spiked up a bit before consolidating at 2am Singapore time. I think probably this QE3 expectation will grow over the days, nearer the September FOMC meeting in 12th or 13th Sep. Well, now I can't see market drop much given this glimmer of hope.

Probably these few days, there may be more expectation factored into the market, propelling the market forward.

Gold (GLD) or Silver (SLV)is something you may want to look at now...

Let us see how the market reacts these few days.

Somehow I got a feeling that probability of a QE3 is high. I think if Ben Bernanke would not have one, he probably would not give us such a high expectation of one. If not, the market will fall hard in September and it would not help in Obama election which is just 2 months away!

Anyway we just play with the expectation leading up to FED's next meeting. You may want to really take out your guns and pull some trigger to buy good stocks whenever the market drops!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com




Market Sentiment Indicator for 23 Aug

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 62.66% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 3 Jul)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bullish)


2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 54.06% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 5 Jul)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 70.80% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 18 Jun)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 86.36%   (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 7 Jun)
(Energy Sector has changed sentiment to bullish)

**Energy Stocks may turn Bearish in the next 3 weeks

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 69.13%
(Bullish signal: Bull Alert 22 Aug)
(Energy Sector has changed sentiment to bullish)


6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 63.29% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 27 Jul)

(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bullish)
 
 
The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

Wednesday, 22 August 2012

A Temporary Resistance for the DOW?

Dear Friends,

After 6 consecutive weeks of run-up in the Dow Jones index, Dow reached its high 13330 points yesterday. The highest Dow reached in this 4 years rally is 13338 points. Upon touching that 13330 mark, Dow swiftly retraced, bringing down major stocks and index in US.

Like what we mentioned in past articles, there may be a temporary pause to this run-up. Mid term wise, we still maintain our bullish stance. A temporary pause will be marked by

1) Dow decreasing a triple digit in 1 day (one hundred points). Yesterday drop of 60 points is considered mild.

OR

2) Dow decrease 3 days in a row.

If that happens, this will mark a temporary slowdown to the bullishness. For short term players just watch out for this indication. Long term players, it is ok to hold on to your stocks.

In US, Energy Stocks may have reached its peak this week. A suggestion would be to maintain some short positions in Energy sector stocks to hedge against any bullish positions you may have. Energy stocks may find difficulty to go much higher from now.

I did not study if singapore stocks like Keppel Corp has any direct relations to US Energy sector. But I guess there there is some relating factor studying from the chart. From now on, better do not buy anymore Kep Corp stock. Anyway from the chart Kep Corp has reached a Double Top of $11.60. Just be careful!

For these few days, I suggest we stay on the sideline, watch and see how DOW reacts to its 13330 high point. Will it cross over or retrace? Let us leave it to the index to tell us...

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Tuesday, 21 August 2012

Market Sentiment Indicator for 21 Aug

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 62.01% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 3 Jul)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bullish)


2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 53.78% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 5 Jul)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 70.20% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 18 Jun)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 86.36%   (Bullish signal: Bull Alert again 7 Jun)
(Energy Sector has changed sentiment to bullish)

**Energy Stocks may turn Bearish in the next 3 weeks

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 66.67% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 14 May) 
(S&P500 Financial stocks has turned bearish) 

6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 63.29% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 27 Jul)

(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bullish)
 
 
The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

Friday, 17 August 2012

Singapore Stock Tip: Asiasons a stock in consolidation breaking NEW HIGH soon?

Dear Friends,

We have been mentioning this stock ever since it is 30cents plus. Run up great, and continues after its earnings on 14th August. Our next target is 67cents, stop loss better put at 53 cents.

Singapore Penny Stock Tip: A stock worth watching - MIDAS

Dear Friends,

This is a Singapore stock that has a Bullish Signal using our "ART System". On 14th Aug just released its earnings. Positive result...Fundamentally it is quite ok. Technically we think it has a chance to go higher.


Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Seminar on Fundamental Analysis of Stocks!


Limited Seats, Sign up today!

“Top 10 Fundamental techniques in Picking the RIGHT Stock”
You shall learn:
1) Outlook for the Singapore and US markets
3) Picking the right stocks using fundamental analysis
4) How to earn rental income from the stock market every month

Date: 21 August, Tuesday (English Session)
          22 August, Wednesday (Chinese Session)

Time: 7pm -10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


Speaker: Daniel Loh (Raffles Business International Director, Stocks & Derivatives Specialist)
Cost: Free

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Are we bullish today in US market?


Dear Friends,

Look at the chart of DOW at half time, lunch time. That is what I mentioned, the market just cant drop now. Still bullish.

Meantime, our graduates are having a jolly good time locating bullish stocks all day long. Amazon, Baidu, Apple, 3M, Monsanto are running and breaking out.

So much opportunities!

Spain goes up 4% on getting a good round of money. German DAX shoots up at last hour hearing the good news.

Needless to say, Asia should continue its upward trend 2moro...

Waiting for bearishness??? Neh, not now....

Thursday, 16 August 2012

STI back on track after yesterday down day

Dear Friends,

From the discussion in some chatrooms and facebook and websites, we know some of the retailers are betting the stock market to go down, talking about shorting this stock and that. We suggest against doing it now. 

Why?

It is because market is still at a bullish mode. How do we know?

Look at Wilmar and Genting!

Their earnings are terrible. Wilmar gaps down 30 cents at the open, Genting has a terrible result too! And yet the stocks come up after earnings day. This shows that even "lousy" stocks are being SPECULATED up. The market is nonsensical now, meaning it does not make sense.

And as a trader, we need to develop an intuition. I counted a lot on intuition and feeling throughout my years of trading in the US market. At this moment, I cannot sense any bearishness yet! If you are still waiting in the sidelines to wait to buy the stocks, you might miss one of the greatest bull run these couple of years until OBAMA US presidential election.

Of course short term wise there might be a small consolidation in this long term bullish trend towards election. One way to spot a short term down trend is a triple digit decrease in one day for DOW, or 3 consecutive down days for the DOW.

At this present moment, I feel Singapore market is better than US now. US is in a bit of consolidation the last week. But it is not dropping either.

For your information, keep this dates down, there will be QE3 expectations again before the dates

1) 31st August
Many economists expect Fed Chair Ben Bernanke to send a signal of the central bank’s intentions in his remarks at the Fed’s summer retreat in Jackson Hole on Aug. 31.


2) 12th and 13th September
FOMC meeting: Ben Bernanke will speak again at the 2 days meeting.

Regards
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Jim Rogers: Historic Shift Coming in 2013



Wednesday, 15 August 2012

Wall Street Guru Jim Rogers: Investment Tips by Jim Rogers

Shares Investment: Pertaining China’s 2Q12 GDP figure of 7.6 percent, concerns have been raised and do you think that China is really heading for a hard landing?

Jim Rogers: Firstly, I would suggest not paying that much attention to the GDP figures because it is a lagging indicator and it does not accurately reflect the current conditions of the market. On the part of the slowdown in China, should we be surprised by it? I mean, they’ve been trying to slow down for the past three years and they have. As you put it, some parts of the Chinese economy will be expected to experience a hard landing, and some parts of the Chinese economy will be expected to do extremely well going forward. I expect the property sector will experience the hard landing and sectors like agriculture, infrastructure, and water treatment will be having a great potential and future.

SI: The Shanghai Composite Index sank to close at its three-year low on 20 Jul-12 even after the Chinese central bank surprised the market by cutting its benchmark interest rates twice in a month. What is your view on this?

Jim: I’m not buying Chinese shares right now if that’s what you mean. I own Chinese shares. Whenever the Chinese market collapses, I’ll buy more for my children. I don’t sell my Chinese shares; I just buy more whenever they collapse, but not now.

SI: Since mid-2011, gold price has been falling as China and India’s growth started to slow. Do you think that the price of gold will continue its downward trend and do you see this as a buying opportunity?

Jim: I’m not good at market timing so I can’t be absolutely certain. However, I do own gold and silver. I do not know what’s going to happen but gold has been going up 11 years in a row. I have not heard that for any asset without a down year. Gold is obviously correcting right now, maybe 15 percent to 20 percent from its all-time high, which is not very much for a normal correction in any markets (normal 30 percent to 40 percent). It will not surprise me if gold didn’t continue to correct. Moreover, gold has only been down 30 percent once in the past 12 years or so, which is extremely unusual. What’s going on with gold right now is abnormal, what is normal would be for gold to actually go down 30 percent to 40 percent. That will then be the time to buy, “if” and when that happens, I hope I buy more.

SI: In that case, do you have any target price in mind for gold?

Jim: No. I have no idea what’s going to happen. I know in the next ten years it will be much higher. I mean, depending on what happens in the world, like if Spain suddenly decides to declare bankruptcy and everything collapses, I’ll find something to buy as things go down.

SI: Last year you mentioned in a video that in the future that in the future farmers will be driving lamborghinis and stock brokers will be driving taxis, considering that and the surge in corn’s price and volatility in the commodities market right now, what’s your take on commodities?

Jim: My statement about farmers driving Lamborghinis and stock brokers driving taxis stand. I’m very optimistic about agricultural still. Agricultural prices will have to go up a lot. The inventories of food are near historic lows and we are running out of farmers. Therefore any shocks or bad news to agriculture will have enormous effect. Unless the prices of agricultural products go up higher to attract more labour, capital and management, we are going to have an unmitigated situation that the world has never seen.

SI: Shifting the focus back to the general economy, do you foresee a possible re-enactment of stimulus measures like operation twist if the Eurozone crisis does not improve?

Jim: Yes I do, unfortunately this is because all governments want to be re-elected, therefore they’d do everything they can to do so. All they know is to stimulate, whether it’s by printing money or spending other people’s money. It’s the wrong thing to do, but they don’t know any better. So you’re going to see a lot more government actions, because they’d want to be re-elected.

SI: Considering how long this issue has been dragging, what is your take on the constant pumping in of money to salvage the European nations?

Jim: I think it’s a wrong move altogether. I mean as you can see, so far printing money hasn’t work, and it’s not going to work this time. The world has staggering debt problems, so all these money printing is just going to make things even worse. Things are going to get really bad in 2013 and 2014. So they should be really careful about printing money.

SI: A few months back you mentioned about shorting emerging markets as a hedge, what are the emerging markets you are looking at that you think has a long potential for?

Jim: Well, I’m very optimistic about Myanmar, although there is no stock market there but I do own Yoma Strategic Holdings (Yoma). There are not a lot of stocks that you can own which do businesses in Myanmar, but Yoma does. Other countries that I’m looking at for the most part are mostly countries with no stock market yet but are going right. Like North Korea, I’m very optimistic about North Korea, but there’s not really a way to invest in North Korea yet.

SI: Lastly, what would your advice be to anyone who wants to invest right now?

Jim: If they don’t know what they’re doing, I’d advise them not to. If they do, opportunities can be found as there are many things which are knocked down right now, making such opportunities cheap. Essentially I think the most important of them all is to invest in what you know about. Don’t listen to someone you heard on the radio or internet, and let it sway your decision, they could be wrong. If you’ve done your homework, if you know what you know, don’t listen to others.

Jim Rogers is a keynote speaker at Shares Investment Conference 2012. Watch him share proven investment strategies and intimate thoughts ‘live’ in person!

Tuesday, 14 August 2012

Singapore Stock Tip: An Error report on Sakari in earlier Article, Sorry...

Dear Friends,

Yesterday Sakari drop around 10cts in 1 single day. In my class, a friend tells me Sakari goes down because of Earnings less than expectation. Without researching, I published an article asking telling all to leave this stock because of bad earnings.

In fact after my research, this is not true. Sakari beats earnings expectations on 30th Jul!
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/31/markets-singapore-stocksnews-sakari-idUSL4E8IV1FX20120731?type=companyNews 

It goes down yesterday for 2 reasons:

1) there is analyst downgrade by UBS
*DJ Sakari Resources Downgraded To Neutral From Buy By UBS
*DJ Sakari Resources Target Cut To S$1.59 From S$2.55 By UBS


2) The price of Sakari reached $1.50. This is what I called the "Law of Gravity of Price", a magical number like Fibonacci set of number where it needs to rest for at least 3 trading days.

How to play this stock NOW?

In fact, profit take first if you are a short term trader.

When Sakari comes back to $1.535, you may want to get in again, this is what I called consolidation has finished and this stock is about to march on again! If it does not come back to this figure, forget it...

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com




US Stock Tip: Apple Preorder on 12 Sep

Dear Friends,

The ball is rolling now, if this report is correct!

http://www.imore.com/iphone-5-pe-orders-planned-september-12-second-release-wave-first-week-october

Anticipation has started and if it is true that its pre-launch date is 1 month away, I believe it will break its all time high price of $644 soon. Time to focus on this stock.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Investment Seminar

Secrets of the US Market and how it affects Singapore Market (Singapore)
- Are turnarounds of the Dow Jones and STI happening soon?

1) Secrets of the US market and how to predict the market trend
2) Outlook for the Singapore and US markets
3) Picking the right stocks using chart pattern and fundamentals
4) How to earn rental income from the stock market every month

Date: 15 Aug (Wed) English Session
           21 Aug (Tue) English Session
           22 Aug (Wed) Chinese Session 华文

Time: 7pm -10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


Speaker: Daniel Loh (Raffles Business International Director, Mr Hu Li Yang partner, Derivatives Specialist)
Cost: Free

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

Will STI and KLCI consolidate? Until sentiment shifts...

(Pls note that I made an error listening to a friend that Sakari goes down on Earnings in my earlier article. In fact after my research, Sakari beats earnings expectations on 30th Jul! It goes down yesterday because there is analyst downgrade and because it reached $1.50. But I anticipate it would come back after consolidation!)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/31/markets-singapore-stocksnews-sakari-idUSL4E8IV1FX20120731?type=companyNews

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dear Friends,

Some of you may fear STI and KLCI will be consolidating. Temporarily, I have not seen any signs of it slowing down yet. Today STI goes up another 10 points, KLCI 1 point. I know some of you are waiting for a retracement to get in. But like what I said, there are more people being afraid of missing the bus than wait for the bus to stop.

Traders jump on board the bus when it slows but did not wait for it to stop. That is the sentiment now. Until I see a change in sentiment, I am afraid this bus will carry on to the next destination.

Try to pick up some stocks whenever the stock market drops a bit. Like what I said in June, you probably would not see Dow at 12000 points again this 2nd half of the year!

If you have been paying attention to our articles, we have been trying to get you to accumulate stocks.

Now that we have entered the earnings season, buy stocks that react positively to its earnings news! This will be the stocks you should play this season. Do not focus on Genting! Today it goes down again after earnings. This is a LOSER! If you think you can get this stock cheap, you may be wrong. Unless fundamentally it proves itself it can garner the VIP revenue again. Or else it should remain in the Rubbish chute, meaning DON'T TOUCH IT!

Today, Sakari goes down on analysts' downgrade. My suggestion is to profit take. If Sakari ever comes back to $1.53 again, you may want to accumulate again.

In US market, I told all to pay attention to APPLE, it is going to break $625 soon. It has awaken today, and I believe it will continue its upward movement, probably towards its all time high price of more than $644... 

Check this article:
http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1374221150056977591#editor/target=post;postID=6235681997235048890

To summarise, pay attention to your stocks' reaction after earnings announcement. It will tell you whether you should put it inside your trading dairy for this season!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Monday, 13 August 2012

Beware of US ENERGY SECTOR trend, may turn bearish within 1 month!

Dear Friends,

I am glad to say we have been very accurate in predicting the US SECTOR in Trend and when will the sector change in direction. We issued predictions often before others can see the change in trend. If you just follow our sector rotational predictions, you would have make good money this year.

As an example, in May this year our research already shows that Energy sector turnaround is about to happen in 2-3 weeks. Indeed Energy bottomed in June. We asked everybody to get in!

Check this article:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/06/us-energy-sector-seems-to-have-reached.html

Check the charts of Energy Sector ETF (XLE): See the double bottom in 1st June and 25th June. If you buy the ETF at $60, now at $72, you would have made 20% ROI return in 2 months!


If you buy the high profile Energy stocks like Exxon or Chevron, you would have make GREAT $ too! Exxon goes from $76 to $89 now. Chevron goes from $95 to $113 now!



Just by following our tips this year in the US market, you would have make tremendous money!

Today I am going to offer you another tip! We predict that Energy sector's trend is about to change within the next 4 weeks! We will let you know the time when it does. Do not short now as it is still bullish, in overdrive mode! But do keep a lookout of our signal, once it change, we will issue a BEARISH SIGNAL!

You need to learn about US Stocks!!!! It is not hard to make Money!!!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

If you would like to know more about US market, Join me in an

Investment Seminar by Daniel Loh:

Secrets of the US Market and how it affects Singapore Market (Singapore)
- Are turnarounds of the Dow Jones and STI happening soon?


1) Secrets of the US market and how to predict the market trend
2) Outlook for the Singapore and US markets
3) Picking the right stocks using chart pattern and fundamentals
4) How to earn rental income from the stock market every month

Date: 15 Aug (Wed) English Session
           21 Aug (Wed) English Session
           22 Aug (Thu) Chinese Session 华文

Time: 7pm -10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


Speaker: Daniel Loh (Raffles Business International Director, Mr Hu Li Yang partner, Derivatives Specialist)
Cost: Free

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 98755178





Market Sentiment Indicator for 13 Aug

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 59.89% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 3 Jul)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bullish)


2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 52.42%
(Bullish signal: Bull Alert 5 Jul)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 67.80% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 18 Jun)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 81.82%   (Bullish signal: Bull Alert again 7 Jun)
(Energy Sector has changed sentiment to bullish)

**Energy Stocks may turn Bearish in the next 1 month 

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 66.67% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 14 May) 
(S&P500 Financial stocks has turned bearish) 

6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 58.23% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 27 Jul)

(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bullish)
 
 
The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector


A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

香港股神曹仁超投资者日记:看美国资金涌入 不需推QE3


香港信报财经新闻有限公司首席顾问曹仁超昨(8)日指出,受欧债危机影响,市场资金由欧洲流向美国,美国联准会(Fed)不需推出第3次量化宽松 (QE3),已达到宽松银根之效。

曹仁超在接受本报独家专访时指出,他早在2009年底已预言欧债危机「没完没了」,至今2年多时间过去,不但希腊主权债券情况恶化、西班牙问题亦浮现。

曹仁超分析,2000年欧元区成立,由于德国马克过去的信用好,致使欧元信用评级提升。南欧国家加入欧元区,使借贷利率大幅回落,刺激当地房地产甚至股市大涨,带来消费狂热。

2007年10月美国的金融海啸席卷全球,虽然Fed大幅度降息,美资银行仍积极「去杠杆化」,过去向欧洲银行大量贷款的美资银行,为求自保,纷纷向欧洲银行追回资金,引发欧洲资金外流。
欧元兑美元汇率从2008年下半年的1比1.6开始回落,而后虽因美国政府推出二次量化宽松政策,欧元汇价出现反弹,但自2011 年5月起,随着欧洲危机发酵,欧元兑美元汇率由1比1.494美元再度下滑。

曹仁超认为,欧元兑美元汇率能否守住2010年7月低价1比1.187 是观察重点,此一价位是欧元分水岭,如守得住,代表欧债危机没有继续恶化下去,如果守不住,则后果严重。

各国央行以印钞票及低利率政策救市,曹仁超不表赞同,他指出,此一作法如果可让经济复苏,如何解释过去22年日本经济衰退的情况?2008年美国政府效法日本狂减利率及印钞,现在欧洲央行亦是如此,美国和欧洲经济恐将像日本一样,步入没完没了的衰退期。

曹仁超认为,过往美国Fed施行量化宽松政策,皆让美股大涨,2009年3月美国政府推出第1次量化宽松 (QE1),美股道琼指数由6,470点上升至11,500点、涨幅77%;2010年中,美国推出第2次量化宽松 (QE2),美股道琼指数由10,000上升到13,000点、涨幅30%;2011年推出扭转操作(OT),美股道琼指数进一步上涨到今年5 月13,339点。

就市场对美国施行QE3的预期问题,曹仁超认为,受到欧债危机影响,市场资金已由欧洲流向美国,美国政府无需再推出QE3,已收到银根宽松之效。

曹仁超也认为,每次美元转强、新兴国家股市表现,即不如全球股市,尤其不及美股。

香港股神曹仁超投资者日记: 中国新领导人 打房不松手

信报财经新闻有限公司首席顾问曹仁超认为,中国经济成长率减缓,对台湾经济影响应不大。
信报财经新闻有限公司首席顾问曹仁超昨 (8)日在接受本报独家专访时指出,中国领导层9月将换届,预期抑制房市政策,仍将是新领导者关切重点。

曹仁超直言,1990年中国总理朱镕基上台时答应反贪污、反腐蚀,朱曾说,「我预备100个棺材,99个给贪官余下一个留给自己」。可惜中国贪官实在太多,到2002年温家宝接班时,贪污仍未见改善。

曹仁超说,中国改革开放30年,有如香港1950年至1980年,制造业繁荣、百业兴盛。1980年至1997年香港制造业式微(或外移),仅金融 业及房 地产业能维持繁荣,2007年起,连金融及房地产业亦面对压力。中国制造业繁荣期及百业兴盛期到2007年结束,2007年10月后,只有房地产仍兴旺, 连金融业亦不行。

曹仁超指出,香港房地产长期繁荣,使财富集中在20%人中,大部分是大业主。房地产的租金收入稳定,有如债券,当10年期美国公债利率低于1.5% 时,房地产投资价值自然大幅上升。2008年起,利率大幅回落,刺激中国房市急升,不少中国城市房价1年涨幅高达50%。2010年起,即使中国政府推出 限购令,仍然阻止不了房价上升。

曹仁超认为,中国会不会出现全国财富集中在20%人手中,而产生仇富现象,势必是9月上任的中国新领导人关切重点,中国仍是实施社会主义的国家,在 社会主义国家,如果超级大富豪都是地产商,政治负面影响将极大。另一个问题是户籍制度。曹仁超说,中国目前仍将城市户籍及农村户籍分开,如果取消农村户 籍,将有更多人移入城市居住,进一步刺激城市房价上升。

曹仁超指出,中国的3大优势,即廉价资源、廉价劳动人口及廉价土地成本将逐步流失,中国制造业须由过去劳力密集,转为资本密集,但中国制造业能否像南韩、新加坡、台湾,走向资本密集及高科技,从在港上市的中国工业股过去两年表现来看,答案恐怕令人失望。

曹仁超认为,中国经济成长率减缓,对台湾经济影响应不大,因为中国经济是出口导向,对其他国家经济影响不大,更何况中国未来GDP增长率估计仍在6%到8%之间,影响自然更微小。

曹仁超表示,中国政府发展内需经济,应有利台湾产品出口到中国,中国13亿人口,对台湾而言是一个大市场,在港上市的富士康因为是出口股,股价由 2007 年27.7港元跌至近期2.2港元;反之,发展中国内需市场股的中国旺旺由2008年2.2港元上升到今年7月10.5港元。

曹仁超说,由此可知,台湾企业应大力发展中国内需市场,此一市场之大,将是美国加上欧洲再乘以2。

Saturday, 11 August 2012

Dow is weak but can't drop, STI is moving towards 3240??

Dear Friends,

I am having a rest in US Stocks. This week the market is stagnant and not moving much. S&P500 at 1400 seems to be a good hindrance. A lot of US stocks are hovering and not powering on. But it seems not to drop much either. Directionless is the word. Currently, I am not entering the US market and holding my guns until I sense a run-up again or when things get bad that I short.

My feel is that Dow Jones need to revive its vibrancy after a good run-up these couple of weeks. A consolidation without panic is always good. Resting in peace for stock market is a sure sign of gathering strength for next burst! A 100 point increase will be a good signal to look out for.

Apple is now resting well below $625! Remember to catch this sleeping giant after it breaks out of $625. I am looking at $647 target price next. See if this sleeping giant awakes from its dreams after yesterday ex-dividend date!

Today someone ask me about STI. I feel STI is still strong and powering along. Based on Mr Hu Li Yang box theory, if STI continues to remain above 3000, it should move towards 3240, a likely resistance region. Before that 3100 is a small resistance.

As I have mentioned in June, we expect this 2nd half of the year to be a bullish run till US election! Do take note of any opportunities to pick up some stocks, like the 2 days drop before National Day. Players are scared of missing the run up instead of selling away their shares!!!

Can you sense and feel the market pulse?  Sense the market to be a good trader!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Wednesday, 8 August 2012

Singapore Profit taking happening as mentioned yesterday

STI down 20 points now...You can see profit taking...

the rest of Asia still quite ok...

Anyway Let us enjoy our Holiday!!!

HAPPY BIRTHDAY SINGAPORE!!!

We would like to wish everybody a Prosperous Year Ahead!




Our Market Sentiment Indicator shows a healthy sign for US market

Dear Friends,

On the mid term horizon (2 months) , our market indicator has been showing healthy signs that the market has more strength to go. NYSE (3000 stocks) and Nasdaq (3000) stocks all are not yet in overbought situation.

However we are already taking note of Energy sector. Energy sector has been overbought, now above 70% region. We expect there will be some cooling in the Energy sector in 1-2 months time. In fact our market sentiment indicator has caught the energy sector run-up in June. It has gone up fast. Once it turns bearish, we have to avoid Energy stocks!

We have also been spot on in the technological sector turnaround in June. Financial sector is the only sector that is still in Bearish territory.

Just by following our market sentiment indicator, you should be making great money!

Regards
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Market Sentiment Indicator for 8 Aug

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 58.53% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 3 Jul)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bullish)


2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 51.09%
(Bullish signal: Bull Alert 5 Jul)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 66.20% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 18 Jun)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 77.27%   (Bullish signal: Bull Alert again 7 Jun)
(Energy Sector has changed sentiment to bullish)  


5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 67.90% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 14 May) 
(S&P500 Financial stocks has turned bearish) 

6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 56.96% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 27 Jul)

(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bullish)
 
 
The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

王冠一錦囊: 議而不決 內有成果

歐美三大央行本周議息塵埃落定,一切皆不變,結果雖屬意料中事,但市場反應卻頗大,尤其是歐洲央行未採任何具體行動,更成為歐美股市周四全面下跌的導火 線。西班牙股市以5.2%跌幅冠群雄,意大利股市亦急挫4.6%。兩國指標孳息分別重越7%及6%,反映股資者對歐洲央行的決定感失望。

英倫銀行維持息率於0.5%及購債規模於3750億英鎊不變,完全符合市場期望。雖然英國經濟次季萎縮程度達0.8%,但當中存在英女皇登位鑽禧紀念假期 的特殊因素,剛於上月決定把購產規模加大500億英鎊的英倫銀行謀定後動,待倫敦奧運後再決定是否需要進一步刺激經濟措施,亦屬合理。

聯儲局不推QE3並不難理解。聯儲局下調經濟評估,用「正在減速」(decelerating)去形容美國經濟狀況,卻未有採取新行動,主要是經濟放緩仍 未至危急程度。即使次季非農職位增長平均每月僅7.5萬份,僅及首季平均逾22.6萬份的1/3左右,亦只是增長步伐不足以拉低失業率,經濟並未疲弱至要 迫切加推QE3,況且美國最新就業報告於聯儲局議息後兩日(8月3日)發表,聯儲局按兵不動,相信亦與此有關。聯儲局已表明會密切注意就業市場走勢及歐債 危機的發展,又稱會在必要時出手,並未為QE3關上大門。

事實上,市場已押注於QE3在9月12至13的下次議息會議出台,縱使屆時距離美國總統大選只有個多月時間,若推出QE3,不難引來共和黨對伯南克偏幫奧 巴馬助其連任的指控,但伯南克第二個4年任期只剩下15個月左右,對指控大可以充耳不聞,若理據充份,便不會對聯儲局的政治中位性構成傷害。若周五的就業 數據表現差劣,相信伯南克會重演過去兩年的歷史,在8月底的央行年會透露加推QE3玄機。

歐洲央行未有採取行動,德拉吉透露,理事會23成員有1人反對買債,反對者身份已躍然紙上,德國央行本周一再公開反對央行直接買債。即使德國對決定未具否決權,歐洲央行亦難免會投鼠忌器,但德拉吉是否自摑嘴巴,推翻上周稱會竭盡所能去保護歐元的承諾,卻是見仁見智。

事實上,歐洲央行今次議息亦非全無得着,起碼為日後買債訂出了框架,亦為援助財困國家列出援助條件的清單,並表明會在數周內公布購買國債的計劃。所列條件 包括財困國家須先行向紓困基金尋求協助,並接受嚴厲的監管,歐洲央行亦會待永久紓困基金ESM啟動後才入市,並以購買短債為主。此舉其實是針對過去入市買 債徒勞無功,原因是未有配套,受助國家視為理所當然而未積極進行緊縮,未能增強市場信心。同時,歐洲央行會回應其特權問題,投資者關注希臘剃頭時歐洲央行 並無參與,令其他持有希債的投資者要蒙受大損失。

歐洲央行未有即時紓困措施,但所設框架完善了買債機制,堵塞了之前的漏洞,亦已承諾數周內有詳細內容公布,故歐美股市急挫,似乎有點兒反應過敏,估計很快 便會撥亂反正。歐美加推救市措施的大門仍未關上,股市未宜過淡,若調整幅度夠深,不妨趁低吸納,估計兩地央行下月議息時,便是收割時候。

Singapore Short term players better to liquidate position before National Day

Dear Friends,

Singapore Stocks have been having a great day. Some traders in Singapore might use this chance to liquidate some positions over the holiday 2moro after noon time. I would encourage short term investors to also follow suit. Take a bit of profits off the table.

For longer term players, of course, continue to hold your positions as mentioned. We have been perfectly right in our forecasts so far in July and August.

Last week I also issued a forecast that Non farm payroll or jobs reports has a good chance to be good. Indeed everything came out as expected. Non farm last Friday is extremely good, thereby pushing the DOW up 200 points. Today it is still up by 80 points.

For those who have not entered, my advise is wait till after holiday!

Friday, 3 August 2012

Big Ben and Super Mario disappoints with no QE, what strategy next?

Dear Friends,

Last week, we did mention that about our game plan. Our plan is to sell into the rally we had when there is a double QE expectation on US and Europe. We told our readers not to take the risk of no QE again which will definitely set the market back.

Check out our last article on this week game plan:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/07/trading-strategy-for-next-week.html

Today European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, nickname Super Mario is beaten by his own words. And of course when there is no action, the market dissapoints. FTSI 100 is down by 51 points, 0.88% while DAX is down by 148 points, 2.2% on thursday closing. Dow on Thursday mid afternoon, is down by 145 points, a 1.11% drop.

Last week, we mentioned our trading plan is that we are still bullish mid term in the next 2-3 months. In fact, we are looking at accumulating stocks whenever the market sells down before the US election. Today represents one good opportunity. In US, we are looking at Apple and Google to retrace itself. In Singapore, we hope that Ezion goes back to $0.70 again. Fat hope...

In fact after doing an analysis of the jobs reports, our research shows that chances of the Non-farm payroll beating expectation is there. Although we may be wrong as anticipating report numbers are a tough task, we are tilted more towards an unexpected upside surprise. This week I heard a lot of analysts and gurus on CNBC or websites predicting that the jobs numbers will be awful and terrible. I think we are perhaps the first to think positively. Yes, currently we are alone.

I got a sneaky feeling that perhaps Ben Bernanke knows something about the jobs report too. This time in the FOMC meeting, he sounded casual and did not mention anything about jobs may be getting worse or give assurances that FED is thinking about possible measures. He did not try to pacify the market expectations. Don't forget that on Wednesday, ADP employment report is good.

Of course on Friday, the result will tell itself.

However as a trader, I always like to think of possible scenarios. That is how I always seem to be one step ahead of others.

Our trading plan on Friday or Next week is: 

1) If Jobs numbers are good and market starts to rebound strongly after today's fall, start to buy some stocks. I can sense that confidence is still in the market and it seems the market sentiment now is traders are more afraid about missing the bull run than not.

2) If Jobs numbers are not good and market tumbles badly, let the market correct itself, stabilise then enter some small positions. A good way to gauge a change of confidence after a selldown would be a triple digit one day increase in Dow Jones or a 2 day increase in Dow whereby it ends the day on a high or a consecutive triple day increase.

3) If Jobs numbers are good, but market did not rebound strongly. It means that traders probably do not want to enter position over the weekend. Be prepared for any rebound next week. Get ready your weapons.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

-----------------------------------------------------

Investment Seminar by Daniel Loh:

Secrets of the US Market and how it affects Singapore Market (Singapore)
- Are turnarounds of the Dow Jones and STI happening soon?

1) Secrets of the US market and how to predict the market trend
2) Outlook for the Singapore and US markets
3) Picking the right stocks using chart pattern and fundamentals
4) How to earn rental income from the stock market every month

Date: 7 Aug (Tue) English Session

Time: 7pm -10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


Speaker: Daniel Loh (Raffles Business International Director, Mr Hu Li Yang partner, Derivatives Specialist)
Cost: Free

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 98755178



Thursday, 2 August 2012

王冠一錦囊: 虛虛實實 美股難測

美國最新公布的第二季國內生產總值(GDP)初值按季增長1.5%,雖然增幅超越市場預期,但如果根據過去幾季美國經濟增長的軌跡,則不容樂觀:由去年第四季增長4.1%、今年第一季增長2%,到最新公布第二季初值增長1.5%,增長速度明顯呈放緩趨勢。

深入剖析GDP各個環節,只有私人投資有較佳表現,期內私人投資增長8.5%,比第一季的增長6.1%優;個人消費方面,由第一季增長2.4%降至第二季 的增長1.5%;政府開支仍為負數,第二季負增長1.4%,較第一季負增長3.0%收窄;貿易數據方面,出口增長5.3%、進口增長6%,雙雙超出第一季 度的增長4.4%及3.1%。

由於個人消費及家庭開支佔美國GDP比重達七成,消費放緩的原因,包括耐用品訂單意外錄得負增長1%,加上個人消費僅增長0.7%,遠不及第一季4.7%增幅。

至於私人投資增加,主要來自設備與軟件的投資,但其他固定資產投資升幅皆不及第一季。出口雖有增長,但被能源進口成本大增抵銷。加上美元升值,除了影響美國出口貿易外,不少剛公布業績的美國企業皆受打擊。

美元轉強影響下,第二季高露潔 (Colgate Palmolive) 的盈利增長由上季9﹪,到如今僅剩0.8%增長,該公司執行長庫克表示,全年盈利可能被匯率因素侵蝕6至7%。陶氏化學 (Dow Chemical) 的盈利更慘跌四成,第二季盈利只得7.34億美元,去年同期則為11億美元,雅培藥廠(Abbott Laboratories)的財務長佛雷曼更指,收入因匯損額外減少4.7%。

除了GDP和業績因素,基金撤出美股亦是一個不利訊號。根據資訊公司LIPPER的資料,截至上周四為止的一個星期,互惠基金撤離美股的規模逾兩年最大, 達到115億美元。資金撤離美股顯示投資者開始擔憂,歐債問題惡化、中國經濟放緩,無可避免蠶食美國的經濟增長,影響美國企業。

如今雖然三大不利美股因素齊現(GDP轉弱、美元強勢打擊企業盈利、資金撤出美股),但美股上周最後兩個交易日,仍錄得大幅反彈,標普五百指數周四與周五 的升幅是今年數一數二之大,兩天累計升幅達3.6%!美股走勢看似同基本因素背馳,實際上反映投資者憧憬美國聯儲局快將推出量化寬鬆政策救市而已。因此, 聯儲局推出QE3的三項必備條件:美國經濟差、通脹低、美股向下,反而解釋了為何每當基本因素轉差,股民入市變得更加進取積極。

曾淵滄專欄: 短線炒作見好要收

股市仍處上落市,上周初西班牙國債利率上升,導致全球股市下跌,但上周末前,因歐洲央行行長德拉吉一番話,引起股民無限憧憬。歐美股市狂升,道指再次上破13000點大關,邁向歷史高位。

過 去一段時間,我已不止一次地說「船到橋頭自然直」,只要歐洲央行肯印鈔票,沒有解決不了的歐債問題,問題只是歐洲政局複雜,每一次都要等到「山窮水盡疑無 路」,才會「柳暗花明又一村」,也因此,為股市帶來了一上一下的走勢,的確是很刺激,恒指在很短的時間內有千點波幅,眼光好、運氣好,收穫可以很不錯。

上周尾段,歐美股市的反彈力度比過去幾個月都強,那是因為歐美在本星期都有值得憧憬的可能行動,市場傳出歐洲穩定機制( ESM)可能獲得商業銀行執照,若 ESM獲得銀行執照,就可以直接向歐洲央行通過長期再融資操作( LTRO)的方法,借錢來買歐豬五國的國債。

推薦博客:投資錦囊

放水倘落空沽壓重

至目前為止, LTRO已推出兩次,但是一般商業銀行在考慮了風險之後,借錢的興趣不一定很大,因此不必考慮風險的 ESM,最有條件向歐洲央行借錢買歐債。

本 星期,美國聯儲局開會,美國財經界已幾乎認定聯儲局已到了非出手救市不可的時候, QE3的憧憬升至極高點。 ESM會不會如市場傳聞般,向歐洲央行借錢救市,美國 QE3會在本周推出嗎?很快就會有結果,若憧憬落空,股市會再度下跌,憧憬得以實現,股市也可能出現趁好消息出貨的套利行動,因此,短炒者也應見好就收。

奧運開幕了,開幕禮花費不多,卻很有效地宣揚英國工業革命對全世界的影響,沒有工業革命,也沒有香港這個國際大都會。

Wednesday, 1 August 2012

STI has been strong! going to new height this year ends at 3050 today!

Dear Friends,

Good news that STI has clambered over the 3030 barrier. Has it broken out? Let me take a leaf out of Mr Hu Li Yang textbook.

If an index stands over a controversial support and resistance figure, it needs to maintain over that figure without falling back at least 3 days. So this week, we shall see how resistant is the STI.

If it falls back into 3000 again this week, it does not mean that it will continue climbing higher. If it has stood above 3030 without falling back this week, the next probable target is 3240!

That is the prediction that Asian Leading Investment Guru Hu Li Yang has. STI next resistance is 3240 if it stands above 3030.

If after this week's reports and news isn't that bad, probably it is REALLY time to buy some stocks!!!

As mentioned 1 month ago, we are really bullish in mid term (2-3months time). We are anticipating a rally towards the election and an early christmas rally in Wallstreet this year.

I am now preparing my slides for my malaysian trip... not enough time to update... but will give my view on FED tonight and Europe 2moro... stay tuned!!!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Radio FM958访谈 2018年11月15日:世界股市展望 - 现在是熊市吗?

·         美国 股市担心苹果业绩,巴菲特却大胆投资! 道琼斯昨晚闭市在 25080 ,掉了 205 点。在这 10 月 11 月道琼斯的波动都相当大。有很多投资朋友开始怀疑熊市是不是已经来临了。我的答案是还没有。这个跌幅反而是好时机进场。大家不用太担心。 ...