Wednesday, 31 October 2012

美国股市今年能再创牛市高点吗?

An Chinese article for Busy Weekly, Malaysia by Daniel Loh...

自从美国在913日宣布QE3过后,美国股市在914日达到高峰13653点就开始走弱。在1026日星期五闭市时,道琼斯指数闭市在13107点,从今年最高峰下滑了五百多点。这行情真令很多投资家感到纳闷。QE3不是该把股市推上去吗?美国大选前最后一个月股市不应该很好吗?很多投资家在QE3公布后进场买的股票很多都套牢了。

这说明了一点,股市往往出其不意,真是难琢磨啊。要在股市中赚钱真不容易。股民一定要了解市场的心态。市场是活在一种“期望”当中的。美国道指在今年64日跌到今年的底部12035点就连续四个月上涨。还记得在6月份的时候,我在新加坡一场演讲当中被一位股友问到股市下半年的走势时,我回答了下半年股市很有可能创新高因为有QE3的“期望” 。如果股民投资股票可以认识到这一点,了解股市的期望值,就能避过很多错误的决定。当这个期望已经落实时,股市可能就会下滑了。几个月前,我甚至开玩笑说,“美国联会主席柏南克最好不要宣布QE3,这样每次他上台前,股市才会上。”就是因为柏南克在6月到9月都迟迟没公布QE3,每次他要演讲前,股市就大涨。这种QE3的期待使美国道指在第三季度表现相当出色,上涨了一千多点。

最近美国股市下滑当然也影响了全世界。亚太地区也受影响。但是很多股民可能不晓得为什么股市会走弱。原因是因为一间公司引起的。了解期望不只可以用于市场,也可以用在公司。这间公司就是苹果(Apple)。苹果决定在921日把Iphone5推出给全世界。请看苹果电脑的走势图。921日前两个月,苹果电脑上涨了接近$130,达到历史以来的最高价,$705.07。这就是市场对苹果新产品的“期望”。921日过后,苹果就一路下滑到上星期五闭市低点$604,足足下滑了$100。如果有股民在苹果达到$700的最高峰时去买这只股票,就短短一个月损失了14%。而且我觉得很多股民就在最高点套牢的。这就好像当QE3公布后,一定有很多股民一窝蜂的去买股票。

那么一只苹果为何有这个能耐影响整个美国股市呢?现在我借用另一个图表让大家了解。以下是纳斯达克综合指数的图表。你能看到纳斯达克也是在921日达到今年的最高点。为什么苹果能使纳斯达克也开始下滑呢?因为苹果在纳斯达克的重量是20%。以现在的比重,纳斯达克的命运离不开苹果公司这只股票了。当然,在10月份,很多在纳斯达克综合指数上市的公司(比如:IBM, Intel, Google, Cisco)业绩也不理想,造成指数一落千丈。这就影响了美国股市最近的表现。

那接下来美国股市是否能再创新高呢?

我觉得这个星期五112日的非农业薪金报告(Non Farm Payroll)是关键。非农业薪金报告是衡量有多少人领取薪水的经济报告。这是美国每个月最重要的报告。这个报告也对奥巴马下个星期美国的总统选举极大重要。上一个月的非农业跟预期的数字一样,没有推动股市。没有了QE3,现在美国的股市就缺乏了一个利好的消息。如果这个月的非农业报告不理想,大家暂时请远离股市。如果报告必预期好的话,股市很有可能就会在最后两个月再攀新高!美国股市才会迎接华尔街常倡导的Chirstmas Rally



胡立阳的投资秘笈系列:量价关系的video

亚洲股神胡立阳: 谈论量价关系

请点:http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/Su4QDioIUZM/

我最尊敬的老师!My most respected Mentor!

Tuesday, 30 October 2012

With Hurricane problem, oil reach new low of $84.66?!

Dear Friends,

You may be surprised why with the hurricane problem in US today and with the supposedly winter season demand, oil prices still drop to its low these few months. Doesn't seem logical, right??

If you have been following our blog, this may not be surprising. In fact we have been asking all to short oil and energy stocks since september. You would have made great money on our call.

The main reason of this decline is that 97% of Energy stocks has reached our bullish status. History for these past 5 years have shown that this is the highest figure recorded, which means it has reached its peak! This drop is not because of demand and supply of crude oil. None of it, it is purely because of energy sector peaking!

Look at our article:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/10/are-you-surprised-with-crude-oil.html

We think that there is a good possibility of oil dropping to $80 in the mid term. Especially when energy stocks has turned bearish now in our market sentiment indicator.

Going long now for the mid term would be suicidal.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Wait for US market confidence to come back up

Dear Friends,

Today Singapore Index STI dropped by 28 points. I would say that STI has been pretty resilient to US market drop until today. With the uncertainty of US market recently due to earnings, technological and energy sector weakness, I would suggest to avoid Singapore market temporarily.

Wait till we see some confidence in the US market. A good indication would be triple days gain for the DOW, or 2 days where the index close at a high (hopefully one of the days with a triple digit gain).

Attached is a chart of the DOW recent weakness. In fact Dow has already given up all its gain since the QE3 announcement in september, fallen by 600 points from its highest of 13661.


Looking forward, this is a jam packed week. The major report will come this friday with the unemployment rate and non farm payroll. I would probably lean towards a better than expectations report from the non farm payroll this time. In the previous report, it is on par with analyst's expectations.

Probably with the holiday season, there may be more jobs created this month, which is often the case for november. Let us wait for friday numbers.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Hurricane Sandy cause New York to close its exchange


A virtual ghost town, the nation’s most populated city was all but closed Monday. No trading on Monday, Tuesday may be closed too. It that is the case, get ready for big economical reports starting on Wednesday...

Monday, 29 October 2012

BIG week for the US Economy

Dear Friends,

We have a host of economical reports that will reflect the status of the US economical health starting from Wednesday. Below is the list of reports coming up. Friday is the biggest of them all! The NON-Farm Payroll!

Last month, non farm payroll figure is on-par with expectations. How will it be this month? Do you believe in a conspiracy before the elections?!?! Let us find out...

Rgds
Daniel Loh
www.danielloh.com

曾淵滄專欄 2012 10 29 : 政府狠招楼价必跌

过去我多次提醒大家,政府若真想推倒楼市,是易如反掌,问题只是政府会不会做?何时做?政客、传媒长时间地批评「梁十招」是废招,必然会逼政府推出真正的狠招。这 一天果然来了,我相信,新的「曾二招」肯定有效,「曾二招」把特别印花税提高五个百份点,同时时限拉长至三年,再加上非永久居民与公司买家得缴交的15% 买家印花税(BSD),相信有能力压下需求,这包括外地买家、炒家、投资者及用家,需求减少了,楼价自然会下跌,成交更会大幅减少。
 
而且,若论狠招,新的「曾二招」仍未算狠,要再狠一些,可以把特别印花税由三年再增加至五年,税率也可以再增加,还有,最近传媒已开始报道的所谓「利息税」,相信也会是政府考虑的「狠招」之一,备而未用。
 
总而言之,楼价会马上下跌,楼价下跌,当然也会波及股市。

推荐博客:投资锦囊
 
地产股大调整可买
 
受打击最大的是美联集团(1200),「曾二招」对地产代理的打击是立竿见影的,地产发展商也会受到打击,不过,资金雄厚的地产发展商会选择以减少推出新盘来对抗「曾二招」,以减少供应来对冲需求的减少。
 
2003 年,楼价低迷,西九龙「君临天下」落成,发展商恒隆地产(101)因资金雄厚,不愿贱卖,竟然将已落成的大楼收起不卖,因此,资金越雄厚的地产股抗跌力就 越强,香港众多的地产商中,长期坚持货如轮转的是长实(001),今年长实能拿出来卖的楼花早已卖清光,提早达标,新地(016)运气好,也刚刚以超高价 卖掉屯门「珑门」众多单位,套现大量资金。
 
政府出手打压楼价,不会阻止QE3的热钱继续流入香港,因此,股市依然是乐观的,如果本地地产股股价因「曾二招」而出现显著调整,可以趁低吸纳。

Friday, 26 October 2012

Market Sentiment Indicator for 25 Oct

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 68.20% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 3 Jul)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bullish)


2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 55.22% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 5 Jul)
(Nasdaq Exchange Stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 70.60% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 25 Oct)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bearish)


4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 75.00%   (
Bearish signal: Bear Alert 23 Oct)
(S&P 500 Energy stocks has changed sentiment to bearish)


5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 77.78% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 22 Aug)
(S&P 500 Financial stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 54.43% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 4 Oct)

(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bearish)
 
 
The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

The stakes can't be higher with Apple earnings tonight

Dear Friends,

I believe that the stakes are high with Apple earnings tonight. Not only for the company, but for the whole tech sector or Nasdaq. It certainly will bring market confidence into the poor earnings season so far. Or at least when Wall Street these days focus on some major companies that fall below expectations.

Apple is expected to post an earnings per share of $8.85. But Wall Street is whispering a figure of $9.32. So let us see if it did fetch better than $9.32.

Although I seldom predict earnings, my research shows me that Apple has a good chance of beating this estimates. Do not forget that we need to price in the iphone earnings. Last quarter EPS is also $9.32. There is a good chance it might just be better, right?

Having said that, earnings is something we should not bet on. Even though I think positively, nothing is certain in earnings. In earnings, there is also something called the guidance. Like what some tech companies have done recently, even though they may beat earnings, the company actually issue a warning guidance to its future earnings or revenue. If Apple do that too, there goes the stock... But with christmas season round the corner, I doubt they will do that. Wallstreet will also scrutinize on the sales of iphone 5 to see if it is above estimates. All this makes the prediction more uncertain.

But I am still leaning towards Tim Cook delivering a positive, at least that is what I hope, together with the bulls... if not, get ready for a rough ride.

(Updated after market hours upon Apple earnings release)

Apple posted fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $8.67 a share, below the estimate of $8.85 a share.

Earnings in the year-ago period were $7.05 a share. Revenue jumped 27% to $36 billion in the most recent quarter, ahead of Wall Street’s call for $35.8 billion.
Apple also projected fiscal first-quarter earnings of $11.75 a share on revenue of $52 billion. Analysts had been expecting earnings of $15.41 a share on revenue of $55 billion. More about Apple's Q4 results. 

Though the results are poor, but after market hours show that Apple is still holding steadily at $609, which is at least a sign that it might not gap down much the next day. This shows that expectation may have already priced into the recent decline. We shall see how it goes on the opening bell tonight. 

Tech earnings in general are POOR as Amazon pulls off a bad earnings too. 

Wednesday, 24 October 2012

Crude Oil can't stop falling!

Dear Friends,

We did mention about Energy Sector and Crude Oil bearishness recently. Do you remember?

On 5th September, we issued an article to say that oil price has reached its height.
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/09/it-is-official-that-energy-sector-has.html

On 16th September Light crude price reached a high of $100.42. If not for QE, it could have been earlier. Do pay attention to our articles in future for market and sector analysis. Our market sentiment indicator has served us well in trading.

This is the chart of light crude:

This is an article we wrote on 21st September for Shares Investment website:

http://www.sharesinv.com/articles/2012/09/21/energy-qe3-oil-stocks-down-short/

In the article, we advised everybody not to be bullish about Energy stocks and US Energy sector stocks. We did mention that in the mid term trend (1-2 months), this sector will turn downwards. We need to take the opportunity to short crude oil and energy sector whenever it rebound upwards instead of going long.

Take a look at the crude oil price now, $85.65. A fall of $15 from its peak. Oil has fallen 8/9 days. Energy sector stocks are also falling.

Check out some of the energy sector stocks in US. Most of them are falling since September...


From now onwards, mid term wise (1-2 months) do not be bullish to expect crude oil price to rise, or bet on energy related stocks even with the winter period.

Btw, if you want to learn how to short or long crude oil or futures or forex, you may join our FOREX platform seminar

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

How do you capture the profits with FOREX and Futures? 
如何在外汇或期货赚取可观的利润

Why can't forex work with INDICATORS! No indicator method works?
Learn from Investment Specialist Lionel Liew about how to invest and earn a stable income from Forex
 
You shall learn

1) Does indicator works in Forex? What is no indicator trading?
2) How to generate a passive income form it
3) Money management practices needed in Forex

Date:  
6 Nov 2012, Tuesday 7pm - 10pm   (English)
7 Nov 2012, Wednesday 7pm - 10pm   (Chinese 华文)

 
Speaker: Lionel Leow

Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


To register pls click here 
or SMS  to 93676623

Will Facebook be this quarter Cinderella turnaround story?

Dear Friends,

3 days ago, I did mention about this company issuing its earnings.
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/10/this-thursday-may-be-day-where-us-tech.html

Last night Facebook finally find the right sized shoe, and today this stock gaps up 20% with a $4 jump up. No doubt Wallstreet loves this fairy tale story, finally.

Check out what Wallstreet thinks about the stock:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-surges-on-mobile-mojo-2012-10-24

Since the IPO, this stock has tumbled strongly, down by more than half of the opening price.

Does this stock have the chance to live in the fairy tale palace this quarter?

I would say probability is high, given the upgrade in the stock by Citigroup and Bank of America today. There may be more analysts that start to project a better future on Facebook earnings, which will be the main driver of the stock price.

Sometimes analysts' upgrades are contagious. The bullishness might start to catch on given this good quarter and relatively cheap price since IPO.

This is definitely one stock that I will keep inside my watchlist! Wait for this gap up to consolidate a bit, and pay attention on an outbreak...

But do bear in mind that its short float still remains high at 20%. I hope to see the short float decrease to less than 5% before I really go all out to FB :)

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Market Sentiment Indicator for 24 Oct

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 68.68% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 3 Jul)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bullish)


2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 55.56% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 5 Jul)
(Nasdaq Exchange Stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 72.20% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 18 Jun)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 84.09%   (
Bearish signal: Bear Alert 23 Oct)
(S&P 500 Energy stocks has changed sentiment to bearish)


5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 77.78% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 22 Aug)
(S&P 500 Financial stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 55.69% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 4 Oct)

(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bearish)
 
 
The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

A Divergence in Asia market from US

Dear Friends,

The more US market drops, the more I expect the market to rise in November. Yesterday US drops by 250 points, the third largest one day drop this year. This is surely not something we expect 3 weeks before the US election. I think President Obama will be concerned with the stock market going into the election.

Research have shown that the probability of the incumbent party will get re-elected only when the stock market does well in the last 2 months before election. So Obama should be sweating over this.
Having said that, we still maintain our view of bullishness in the last quarter. Just that short term, the market seems weak with the poor earnings report from some influential companies. Yesterday was Dupont, one of the industrial companies in Dow Jones 30. Actually there are some companies that show positive earnings and these are ignored by the market. One such company is Facebook.

So my view remains the same for US market, unless Apple issues a positive earnings results that is well received by the market, this lack of market confidence might still continue. Apple has the chance to turn around the market 2moro after market close.

Coming back to the Singapore market, it does seems that STI is diverging from the path of the US market, which is showing remarkable resilience! In fact, Hang Seng, KLCI and Shanghai Composite are all stubborn to follow US market. With US dropping 250 points yesterday, Singapore actually did not drop a lot, today it close 0.7points only.

It is time to watch some singapore stocks.

Once things get better with US, Singapore market should continue its upwards trend.In my last article, I have noted some Singapore companies for us to study.

If you are conservative, you might want to wait for Thursday Apple earnings to judge. The reason is if Apple fails, it might cause another small panic in US market.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com
www.danielloh.com

Tuesday, 23 October 2012

FREE seminar: Is this the Start of a Bear Run??


FREE Investment Discussion and Seminar
<<DOW down 200 points on Friday 19 Oct! Is this the Start of a Bear Run or a Small consolidation?>>
Hurry and Participate for the last discussion with Daniel Loh this month!

You shall learn:
1) Market Outlook for the Singapore and US markets
2) Strategies you can used to hedge your risk playing with stocks
3) How does Warren Buffet hedge his risk in his stocks portfolio
4) How can you make money when the market is falling?


Date: 23 Oct (Tue) English Session & 24 Oct (Wed) Chinese Session

Time: 7pm -10pm
Venue: 141 cecil street, Tung Ann Association Building
            #07-02 S(069541),
            Tanjong Pagar MRT exit G, walk straight 80m, opp traffic light


Speaker: Daniel Loh  
(Raffles Business Institute Investment Division Head Coach, Derivatives Specialist)
Cost: Free

To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623

5 Singapore stocks might be worth taking a look now (23 Oct 2012)

1) Ezion - Targeted price 1.47-1.50. An upside target of 7 cts from now. Not much. When it reach into 1.47 territory, would take a look to see if professional money is leaving the stock.

2) Ausgroup - Targeted price of 0.58, the peak reached last time. Have to see if it can break thru then.

3) First Resources - Targeted price of 2.17 - 2.20. An upside target of 17 cts more.

4) Yoma - Targeted price of 0.67-0.70. An upside target of 10 cents from now.

5) China Minzhong - Targeted price of 0.95. An upside target of 10 cents from now.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Dear Friends,

We solely based our analysis on Technical Analysis. Please note of any earnings announcemnt coming up for any stocks here. Earnings announcement is something that I always avoid in short term or mid term trading as your stock may gap down upon the poor results. Please check with your brokers when the dates are. Do your own homework too and exercise your stop loss!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

A recap of the 8 Singapore Stocks we covered on 3 Oct 2012

Dear Friends,

Attached is the article that we covered on the 8 stocks on 3 Oct 2012. Let us see how they performed till now:

http://www.danielloh.com/2012/10/our-view-on-8-singapore-stocks-for.html

Below words in red are our latest comment, in black are the remarks made on 3 Oct:

1) Ezra - this stock seems to be on accumulation mode, taking a rest after hitting the target 1.25, I would say this stock probably wont move down below 1.2, might at least run towards 1.30, looks good now judging from our Singapore ART system.

(Went from 1.23 to 1.175 now. What I did not see is the declare of bonus share... sorry I did not know how much they give, but if you take the bonus share, you may not have lost much.)

2) PEC - this stock does seems weak now, I would probably would not touch this stock as I could not know if professional money is still inside the stock. In a range between 70cts and 75cts now. I would not touch this stock unless it breaks out of 75cts with high vol.

(Went from 0.71 to 0.715 now. Dead as what we mentioned. Bingo! Still in a range of 70 - 75 cts. Although we mentioned it is weak then, 70cts is probably a strong base now. This stock is in my watchlist but not to take action yet.)

3) Ezion - Like Ezra, I think this stock is in accumulation mode by the professionals. But I need 2 more days to determine for sure. Judging by the performance of this stock these few days, I did not see any danger of professionals dumping the stock, which I suggest continue to hold. Unless market not good, this stock should continue its flight.

( This stock is one that we recommended strongly and continue to. Went from 1.33 to 1.405. Bingo! We think it still has strength to continue its flight! Tentative target price is 1.47-1.50)

4) Ausgroup - Before its run from 40 cts to 58 cents today, I told my students to accumulate the stock. Indeed it has run. Today, it seems to have finished its flight. DO not touch this stock NOW! Seems dead to me for now..

(Went from 0.535 to 0.52. Dead as what we have forecasted from then till now. Bingo! But we have spotted some activity ongoing for this stock now. Mid term (1-2 months) it is a recommended stock to accumulate now. 0.50 is the base support)


5) China Minzhong - A company that seems to take a good rest after hitting 80 cts, which I know is a resistance and Law of Gravity of Price. I have said that this is a mid term play (2-3 months) and I do not think the flight has ended. Might be ready for a 80cts break.

(Went from 0.78 to 0.85 now. Bingo! we got this stock right. Up by 7 cts now amid the volatile market recently. Our targeted price is still 0.95. Now we put the stop loss at our breakeven price)

6) First Resources - Does not look like it has the strength to run now... probably needs to go down to $2 and see if there is strong support. When market is bad, might break $2...

(Went from 2.05 to 2.03. Bingo! it even went to lowest price of 1.90 after a day I published the article.
Funnily, this stock seems to have reversed its fortune. In my receommended list now. Targetted price 2.20)

7) Hi-P - It follows exactly to what Law of Gravity to price formula. Normal that this stock needs to rest at $1.1 after breaking $1. If this stock is to continue its upward movement, it needs to go higher than its 1.02 price now. I would take a better look at this stock only at 1.07. Keep in watchlist now.

(Went from 1.025 to 0.78 now! A drop of 25 cts. We mentioned that we would only see this stock if it is above 1.07. It did not.... AVOID now until the drop stop.) 

8)  Yoma - The Doji today it has today does seem bad. Better to take profits first. Could still not conclude that today doji is a small pause or whether professional $ has run.

(Went from 0.57 to 0.575 now. Did not move much since the doji. Indeed after taking profits, you probably has not lost much upside run. But it has turned to become our recommended stock now. We anticipate it to break its high of 0.585 soon.)

王冠一錦囊 2012 10 22 : 多事一周 要避其锋

美股上周五大跌,道指挫逾200点或1.5%,是6月初以来最大单日跌幅,纳指和标普500指数更分别跌2.2%和1.7%。整周计,道指与标普500指数皆微升,只有纳指未能守住周初升幅,最终挫1.26%。上周五是87年股灾25周年,美股跌势可算应景,惟单日跌幅与当年道指的22.6%比较,仍是小巫见大巫。
 
上周指美企业绩是主导美股走势最重要因素。因受惠联储局政策,抢先公布业绩的银行业于上季盈利普遍胜预期,摩根大通及富国创新高,表现固然亮丽,花旗和高盛业绩亦佳,被市场睇淡的美国银行即使为收购美林而付出24.3亿美元与兴讼的股东和解,仍逃过亏损厄运。
 
金融股牵头升,加上穆迪确认西班牙最低投资评级,未有把其主权评级降至垃圾级别,欧债危机纾缓,令美股上周初气势如虹,头两个交易日已升逾200点,直至上周四升势才逆转。出现单日转向,导火线是Google差劣业绩被提早泄露,股价泻逾一成,其后微软业绩教市场失望,让科网股成为上周五跌市领头,跨国企业通用电气及麦当劳成绩表欠理想,二手楼销售数字意外下跌,更令美股跌势火上加油。
 
截至上周已公布业绩的标普500指数成分股有116家,平均盈利跌3.7%,跌幅较预期大,营运收入未符预期比重达58.6%,远高于过去10年平均38%。上季业绩期至今最大特色是业务集中美国本土表现较佳,跨国企业则受累欧债及中国经济放缓,销售普遍倒退。
联储局推出扭曲操作和持续低息承诺后,银行受惠良多,除按揭业务及交易买卖收入可观外,美国经济及楼市亦有起色,让银行释放坏帐拨备,为业绩粉饰窗橱。
 
业务遍布海外的企业没有那么幸运,英特尔和IBM营运收入和盈利均倒退,IBM股价跌穿200美元,成为近期美股攀升的最大绊脚石。
 
本周金融市场仍热闹,逾150家标普500指数成分股派成绩表,对美股举足轻重,两大总统候选人今进行选前最后一次辩论、明日联储局一连两日议息,加上苹果迷你版iPad发布会,财政部又拍卖共990亿美元短债。微软周五公布窗口8详情,令人目不暇给。
德国为设立银行业单一监管机构问题与其他盟友出现龃龉,事态发展对汇市和股市亦有一定影响。由于往后公布业绩企业盈利表现难乐观,美股又升幅已大,本周延续上周调整浪的机会高唱,投资者宜先避其锋。

Market Sentiment Indicator for 23 Oct

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 70.03% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 3 Jul)
(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bullish)


2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 56.88% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 5 Jul)
(Nasdaq Exchange Stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 76.20% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 18 Jun)
(S&P 500 stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 93.18%   (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 13 Sep)
(S&P 500 Energy stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 77.78% (Bullish signal: Bull Alert 22 Aug)
(S&P 500 Financial stocks has changed sentiment to bullish)


6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 60.76% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 4 Oct)

(S&P500 Technological stocks has turned bullish)
 
 
The figure in % indicates how many percent of stocks are bullish in the exchange or sector

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

A reading below 30 means Oversold condition. Entering position below 30 indicates Market Risk is low. Consider entering when Bearish signal turns Bullish.

Monday, 22 October 2012

This Thursday may be the day where US tech sector plunges or turnaround

Dear Friends,

This week is a big week for technological stocks in US. It is either break or die for Nasdaq composite. On Tuesday, Facebook will issue its second earnings report while on Thursday, the 2 mammoths of tech sector, Apple and Amazon will be releasing its earnings results.

I went to malaysia for a seminar held by Affin Bank recently. I was asked this question. "Can we buy Facebook now?" My answer is wait for the results on Tuesday. The turnaround will come only when it exceeds the expectations of the analyst. Meaning, its Earnings per share or revenue is more than what the analysts forecasted, then this stock will revive. Something I want Facebook to talk about is its future earnings forecast (by the company) or its plans in the future.

If its earnings fall short of expectations, just dump the stock in a rubbish dump, this stock may be going down like Nokia. For an IPO company to have 2 quarters miss is unimaginable and should not be tolerated. I am sure a lot of hedge funds will short the stock should it fail. Bear in mind it has a short float of 12.42%, which is very high for a stock! But if Facebook were to come alive, it might be this quarter too! With expectations at a low, and prices depressed by half since first day, there couldn't be a better opportunity for a cinderella turnaround story. And if indeed its earnings is good, those shortists will cover back their position and this may be turnaround story for this coming
quarter!

As I explained the real cause of the volatility these couple of weeks has been the poor performance from the tech sector. Nasdaq is the worst performing index recently, no thanks to Google, Intel, Cisco, IBM, Microsoft results.

The only to cure the technological sector wound would be to heal it with a good earnings from APPLE and AMAZON on thursday after market close US time. Both are giants and competitors in some products. We are trying to hear the iphone 5 story of Apple and the Kinder tablet story from Amazon.

There are 2 ways to look at things now. Either Thursday would be good or bad. 2 scenarios:

1) If Thursday is good, tech sector will revive, and I believe shall push S&P500 or DOW to try and test its all time 5 year high. This run may continue into December whereby tech sector always perform excellently in the christmas rally.

2) If Thursday is bad, get ready for another big plunge in the tech sector and Nasdaq composite. It might take a few days or weeks to recover from this plunge. However all is not lost as I still expect it to be a terrific opportunity to buy the tech stocks going into the christmas rally.

My point is to buy tech stocks going into the last 2 months. Just different timing. One is faster than the other.

By the way, do not expect Apple to rally much these few days before the earnings as there will be a great lack of confidence in its earnings. Wallstreet is terrified of tech stocks now as all which release results have performed terribly! BUT it is this lack of confidence that play the advantage into Apple hands. The lower the expectations, the better it is.

APPLE has the ability to change all around on Thursday. Believe me, I have seen it done it many times. A good earnings can send the whole Wallstreet into a buying frenzy. Likewise a bad earnings might cause this plunge to go deeper.

Let us all wait silently and pray...

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Saturday, 20 October 2012

These 2 days fall in Dow is attributed to earnings results

Dear Friends,

These few days fall is attributed to bad earnings results. A few days back, we did encourage everyone to look at some stocks and pick up some going into the holiday season. Mid term wise, we continue to think that the setback is temporary.

Short term wise, we did not expect some of the earnings results like Google and MacDonald to influence the market so much these couple of days. Today Dow probably would end triple digit down. It is down 150 points now..

Short term, we did indeed got it wrong in asking everyone to look at stocks 3 days ago when Dow rallied for 2 straight days. We should have waited for Google earnings to come out first as I predicted there may be a sharp fall that might create waves in Wallstreet. My remedy suggestion now would be:

1) Wait for next week Dow to stabilise amid the small panic today. It happens that today marks the worst day of Wallstreet history when in 1989 19th Oct, the Dow crash by 20% in 1 day. So some traders might be apprehensive today too.

2) Keep a lookout on Apple earnings on thursday after market close US time. If possible, wait until apple confirm a positive earnings beat and the market rejoice before trying to pick some stocks.

3) If you want to go in b4 thursday as market might recover a bit, PLEASE pick those stocks that are good in their earnings this season or last. For US stocks, some companies already issued their earnings results. For Singapore ones, it is a bit tough as you can only based your judgement on the last and it may be near to this season earnings release date already.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

It is Bloodshed Friday for Tech sector on the day of the 19th Oct 1987 "wallstreet worst one day crash"

Dear Friends,

It seems things are turning worse for the technological sector. Well, our market sentiment indicator wins the day again! Did you remember we predicted the start of the tech sector downfall?

Check our past article on 8th October 2012:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/10/no-thanks-to-apple-us-technological.html 

We warned about investing in tech stocks as our powerful sentiment indicator told us that it has turned bearish! Even I am amazed by our sentiment accuracy. It is a few days before tech stocks really goes down.

This is even before the recent poor earnings announcement from all the tech companies. Our market sentiment indicators have been right again!

We have so many friends that tell us that they read our blogs everyday. And some can't make investment decision without looking at our blog.

For this, I am flattered, and we hope that we can give you better tips and warnings in the years ahead. Our mission is to help the public giving better advice than media and newspapers, which often is WRONG.

Btw, fundamentally US tech stocks remain weak and unless APPLE and AMAZON proves better earnings, we encourage all to stay away from this sector!

Intel, IBM, Google, Avnet have all proven to Wallstreet with their LOUSY, really poor earnings this season.

People are worried about APPLE earnings next thursday! That is the reason for the selloff for apple shares today too. Down more than $10.

And this worry won't end unless Apple proves itself next week. Hope it at least put a stop to the landslide in Nasdaq index and tech sector in general. Apple has the influence, and I feel all these tech stocks miss has set up the best opportunity for Apple to shine now!

In fact, Apple should count itself lucky. The more worse off about the tech stocks, the better it is for its earnings. Even if Apple just meet the expectation of Wallstreet, this stock can still advance now. We are just worried it miss a lot again.

To sum it up, DOW and S&P500 is still in the green in October. So it is still not bearish yet. Only Nasdaq is doing poorly this month.

We continue to remain bullish this 2-3 months, mid term wise. You may want to pick those stocks that are good with the earnings.

In fact, if our forecast are correct, we even  think that tech stocks should come back for a good run in november ot december, near the christmas!

Get ready for the tech and bullish run once this selloff is over!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Friday, 19 October 2012

Google down $80 in 30 mins! Well, we warn you right?

Dear Friends,

I am surprised at today's drop in google price in mid day because it seems there is a mistake in the earnings release timing. Google should release after market closes. Instead the release is now in mid day 12am Singapore time. CNBC say it is unusual and someone accidentally release it.



But seriously, i am not surprised about the drop. If you saw my article, I warn everybody to get out of tech sector stocks last week before google earnings as I expect a big disappointment! Actually I expect this stock might drop $100 though I did not short it. Reason is earnings release is so risky. I have been through the experience of guessing it right 4/5 times. But the one time that I guess wrong is enough to wipe off all my profits.

One of my principle in short term trading is not to hold stocks through earnings day. This is because I do not want the heart attack of waking up to know I have lost thousands of dollars overnight.

But last week, I am perhaps the only few and first people to warn you to get out of tech stocks on thursday because I know the risk of a google breakdown.

Check out our article to warn you last week:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/10/jp-morgan-and-wells-fargo-disappoints.html

REMEMBER traders,

this is the most valuable lesson that I have learnt in my 10 years of trading in US market, whenever a company ran up too much before its earnings, more likely than not, the company will GAP DOWN on earnings day.

The amazing thing that I found out is, Wallstreet always think otherwise. Today they are dumbfounded by the drop.

Believe me, those analysts' or commendators or press and media do not know anything about trading! I have lost enough money trusting them that I know. They have been saying BUY BUY BUY before its release. Never trust MEDIA and ANALYSTS. They never trade and know nothing about EXPECTATION. It will happen again in future to some other stocks... I would rather you trust our blog than those professionals who appear in media or TV.

BUT now, do you know what is the good news?

Now that tech may have reported its worst earnings with google , we think it may be time to be bullish for some tech stocks... haha. I am going to see if I can pick up some good potential tech stocks that has done well in its earnings. 

One good stock is EBAY which has issued a good earnings.



Thursday, 18 October 2012

IBM causing the DOW to be down 11 points now

Dear Friends,

IBM earnings disappoints today, pushing the DOW into negative territory. I heard from CNBC that if not for IBM, DOW probably would be up by 60 points. Well, it meant that market generally is good as the drop is mainly caused by IBM.

This is one stock that has run up a bit, $30 this quarter. Expectations is probably raised a bit high. This gives me a glimpse of what might happen on Thursday with Google. Will there be similar expectations on this big tech giant too?

If u have tech stock at hand, and u r a short term player, maybe the wise thing to do is to sell first.

Btw, coming back to the market, the market seems more confident now. However today STI seems to be weak still. I continue to believe that if you are a mid term player, try to spot any stocks and accumulate your position.

This quarter, we will still hit a new high.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

曾淵滄專欄 2012 10 17: 局长奇怪论真糟糕

昨日一则新闻指出,QE3推出至今,恒指上升1100点,过去大半年,不少人认为QE已没有作用,但我依然很看好QE,并在9月初呼吁大家耐心地等好消 息,QE3推出后,尽管恒指仍有反复,那是因为内地股市仍在摸底,沪综指在打2000点的攻防战,但的确可以用渐入佳景来形容恒指,二线股的升幅更可观, 不同的板块轮流炒上,昨日多只内房股突然出现较大幅度的上升,可考虑短炒追入。
 
上任三个多月的运输及房屋局局长张炳良,对香港楼价的上升感到「奇怪」,这就糟糕了,局长说楼价上升是「奇怪」的现象,意味着他不明白楼价为何上升,如果局长不知道楼价为何上升,如何对症下药?
 
香港楼价的确已升到许多人不相信的水平,但尽管不相信,中原城市领先指数依然不断创新高,连一些不相信楼价仍会再升的人,也加入买楼的队伍,特别是未上车者。
 
推荐博客:投资锦囊

股市入佳境港交所值博
 
楼价不断创新高,很明显地,地产股股价是大落后了,不少大蓝筹地产股,连2011年初的高位仍破不了,更不必说2007年的高位,以香港四大老牌地产家族所 控制的企业为例:长实(001)现价114.9元,与2011年高位比较还差16%,与历史高位比较则相差28%,恒地(012)、新地(016)及新世界发展(017)的现价与2011年高位比较分别仍差9%、22%及23%,与历史高位比较则分别仍差30%、38%及60%。如果我们以2011年的高位为股价回升的第一目标,则有9%至23%的水位,若以历史高位为目标,新世界现价与历史高位仍相差60%,是不是最值博?
 
楼价狂升,股市渐入佳境,应该是时候买入港交所(388)股票,再耐心地等成交上升。

Wednesday, 17 October 2012

Intraday Trading on US stock APPLE - US$2075 profit in 47 minutes!

Dear Friends,

This is what you can make in less than 30 minutes of trading from the US market. Trading is a journey and with a STRICT money management practice, you can make $ consistently!


Today Apple has some good news coming bcos of its new product release of its ipad mini 23 October. This is new product launch play! However bear in mind that this is not a big product like iphone or ipad.

Hence I only play intraday. As this stock has been weak these few days, I do not want to hold position today.

Btw, if you like this stock, bear in mind that it has multiple supports at 620, 625 and 630. I predict, before its earnings next week, these supports should hold now. And there is a great chance that it can break 650 too! Cover your shorting positions if you have any on this stock!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Amazing Recovery today from DOW! Bullish run is back!!

Dear Friends,

2 days is all it needs for the DOW to be back! Yesterday DOW goes up 95 points. Today it goes up 120 points now. It is 100 points away from all time high.

Time to pick your weapons to go on a hunt again, guys! Needless to say, confidence is back. Today, I guess Dow should end near its high, which shows confidence again.

Ha, do you remember that last few weeks, Wallstreet is so concerned of all the negative earnings. Do you remember I told everyone not to worry about earnings and said that because of the negative expectations, DOW will be back! I have been through enough earnings to know that the negative expectations wont last throughout the earnings season. We just need to be patient to pounce! Today might be it!

Check out our last article:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/10/dow-down-triple-digit-today-what-do-you.html

Like what we have been preaching, we are bullish for the last quarter. I have no doubts whatsoever that Dow will break new high, just that I want to wait for confidence to be back before being bullish again.

Today is a show of confidence again! Yesterday near to a triple digit gain does its work. Pick your guns and shoot some stocks already! Be it Singapore, Malaysia or US stocks! Get in...

Good luck trading!!

Regards
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Tuesday, 16 October 2012

Singapore Stock Tip: China Minzhong going higher?

Dear Friends,

Someone ask me what stock I am paying attention to in Singapore.

Maybe this, this is one stock that is going higher?? probably... China Minzhong.


Do your own study... Check out the earnings date with your broker, sorry I did not check. Just did study purely on TA.

Rgds
Daniel

A Good Retail Sales prop up Monday's Dow Rally

Dear Friends,

I am serving my reservist this week. Hope that I can still contribute some info about the market. Sorry that I did not post anything these couple of days.

Looking back on Monday, I like what I see. Dow close at a high, increasing near to 95 points, almost a triple digit which I consider as a mark of a confidence booster. Hence probably 2day I shall watch the market direction of DOW again.

If today, it still manage to have a strong close, it means that some confidence has come back into the market. Hopefully it is 2 "Marabozu candles" that you see in the daily chart. Marabuzo is opening at low, and closing at high. A sign of bullishness. Either that, 3 green days signify some confidence coming back too.

By the way, we can attribute the bullishness of yesterday to a strong fundamental retail sales report. The good Citigroup results yesterday did help. Today Goldman Sachs results should strengthen the sector further. In fact today Citigroup gaps down because of its CEO exit. I might take this as an opportunity to ACCUMULATE the stock and hold mid term.


By the way, do remember that we anticipate good fundamental reports coming up for October as seen by some good economical reports seen in the first week. We still feel mid term wise (2-3 months), Dow Jones will continue to reach new heights! As holiday season is near, it is normal that retail sales is good. I predict it to be better in November. Nearing Christmas, do remember to start accumulating the stocks.

In fact, we think this slight consolidation as a great thing for us to get into the bullish bandwagon! Get ready. But I am also trying to time my entry to perfection.

This week might be the week!

Do start to look for GEM stocks. Once these few days bullishness remains, GET IN! Look for confidence from Dow Jones especially on Tuesday and Wednesday night. 

For those who are playing US tech sector, do take note of Google earnings on Thursday night. It might shake a bit of the tech sector.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

That is one of the reasons why

Monday, 15 October 2012

JP Morgan and Wells Fargo disappoints Wallstreet on Friday

Dear Friends,

Like what we have mentioned in our last article, US market has not shown signs of confidence coming back yet. We also mentioned on Thursday not to be caught up with the good financial sector performance yet and wait for the earnings of JP Morgan and Wells Fargo before judging whether finance sector is good. See our last article:

http://www.danielloh.com/2012/10/did-dow-jones-show-significant.html


Indeed, on Friday, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo seems to disappoints Wall Street with its earnings results.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jp-morgan-chase-wells-fargo-lower-on-earnings-2012-10-12

"Wells Fargo suffered as its 8.1% growth in revenue, to $21.21 billion, came in below analysts’ consensus view of $21.47 billion, according to Thomson Reuters. Per-share earnings, reflecting the payment of preferred dividends, were 88 cents a share, ahead of the expected 87 cents a share. "

This week, there will be more financial companies announcing their reports, like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup. Hope they can turn around the tide for the financial sector, a big sector that will affect the US market.

On Thursday, Google, the big tech company might rock Wallstreet with its earnings announcement after market closes. After a run-up of $200 in 3 months to a all time high of $775, I would probably anticipate a GAP-DOWN of this stock. Even a slight positive beat of this stock might lead to a gap down as expectations are extremely high. If I have any bullish tech sector positions, I will liquidate all going into Friday session. But of course, I also do not encourage anybody to short this stock before earnings as playing through earnings involves RISK. And I encourage all short term traders not to do that!

Singapore market has also been volatile recently. In fact from the remisiers, I heard that those who have invested these 2 weeks have not been making $$$. One tip for you if you want to know market sentiment is to ask constantly how the remisiers' clients are doing recently. They reflect the market now. "Most are stuck!", they said. This is a sign that Singapore is like US now. Not that easy to trade recently. Like what we have been mentioning, let us wait for a better performance form US market first before we go in to catch the reversal.

Another tip: If next time, your remisiers tell you people are panicking and no body is buying, the market is hinting reversal is near!

Remember, timing is everything in trading! If you are a part time investor, bear in mind that each year, there are on average only 4-6 BIG Bull runs. The last 2-3 weeks since QE3 announcement is probably not one of the bull runs!

BE PATIENT!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Free Seminar << Profitable Strategies to Technical Analysis Revealed>>

On 17 Oct 2012, Wed (English Seminar) or 19 Oct 2012, Friday (Chinese Seminar).

Do recommend your friends to this workshop!

Sharing on    1) How to profit from Dividend plays correctly
                    2) Technical Analysis strategies revealed
                    3) Market Outlook for Last Quarter

Date: 17 Oct 2012, Wed (English Seminar) or 19 Oct 2012, Friday (Chinese Seminar)
Time: 7pm – 10pm
Venue: 141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building #07-02 S(069541) Tanjong Pagar MRT Exit G, walk straight 80m, opposite the traffic light

Speaker: Andy Ong (ART system Founder)


To register pls click here 
or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623
 

Radio FM958访谈 2018年11月15日:世界股市展望 - 现在是熊市吗?

·         美国 股市担心苹果业绩,巴菲特却大胆投资! 道琼斯昨晚闭市在 25080 ,掉了 205 点。在这 10 月 11 月道琼斯的波动都相当大。有很多投资朋友开始怀疑熊市是不是已经来临了。我的答案是还没有。这个跌幅反而是好时机进场。大家不用太担心。 ...