Saturday, 30 November 2013

Who says the DOW is peaking??

Dear Friends,

If you followed our blog on the TV interview 2 weeks ago, we mentioned that DOW should be able to continue its upward momentum.
http://www.danielloh.com/2013/11/market-outlook-for-us-japan-and.html

This bullish bandwagon just doesn't seem to end, does it?

In recent years, Black Friday has been quite good. Black Friday is the day where US goes on a shopping spree. Wallstreet will take this Black Friday sales figure as a gauge on the consumer confidence and spending power of Americans. Next week, America will be looking at sales of these few days.

I still remembered last year that the Black Friday sales figure hit all time high and brought the index higher. I would be surprised if this year is not a record breaking figure. With the unemployment rate gradually declining and more jobs being created, I would expect this year to be better than last!

Already on Thursday on Thanksgiving night, there has been reports that the sales figure is better than last year.

Perhaps in the next couple of weeks, this confidence will again push the DOW into uncharted territories.

"Don't short the market just yet" is my advice! Black Friday is the start of the Christmas Rally. There may be a carry through all the way to Christmas time!

There will be a good time to short the market. But now is not! If you want to enter new bullish positions, I suggest caution too.

Of course there are 3 factors I will be looking at to know when the confidence of the market is waning. Look forward to our next article to know more.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com


Friday, 29 November 2013

Channel 8早安你好电视分享:这几天的走势如何?

1) 您对美国最近的表现有什么看法?

昨天美国庆祝感恩节没开市。前天美国闭市又创历史高点。上个星期一我们在节目中有提过我们对美国股市是蛮看好的。这两个星期道琼斯的表现确实不错。

今天是星期五,美国今天是Black Friday黑色星期五,是感恩节过后传统购物季节的开始。很多商店大减价,很多美国人会趁今天买许多礼物。

华尔街这几天将会相当关注销售的业绩。我们判断今年业绩因该会不错,因此我们觉得美国股市短期会继续往上爬

2) 最近OCBC对Cosco的股票不怎么看好,您的见解如何?

Cosco在十一月5号有报告她第3季度的业绩。业绩报告过后,股票跳空下来3分。最近也一直在$0.70-0.75之间徘徊。报告过后走势比较弱是因为盈利跌了84%

我们觉得长期投资,造船业的股票是值得考虑的。长期是指一两年。我们判断欧洲经济和中国经济明年将复苏,是有可能带动船运业的。
但是短期可能Cosco还是处于比较弱的状态。

3) 您觉得STI方向会如何?

STI最近的表现比其他股市都还要差。美国,日本,香港股市强劲的表现没有带动新加坡。我们觉得这样的股市不容易投资,可能大家要有耐心等待股市恢复信心。我们觉得STI12月还是有上升的空间。STI支持是3100点,阻力在3300点。在这样的一个环境,大家选择股票做好功课,留意一些业绩不错的股票。



Thursday, 28 November 2013

Boustead up 28% since our Email Alert (using ART System on local stocks)

Boustead trade higher today closing at $1.75, congrats those who follow our trade on this stock on our email. It takes a lot of patience to ride this trend, as I always say it just take 1 good trend to pay for all bad trades. What we do is Keep our losses small and let our winners run. What you should do now is place a Trailing stoploss at $1.65/$1.60 to protect the profit.



Below is ART email sent in July, price was just $1.37 till today its up for a good 28% run! 




FREE SEMINAR by Andy Yew:

Want to know how we pick up good trades? What are the Singapore stocks to BUY and SHORT in this December market?
十二月份 可以买或卖空的股票?

Join us to know what Singapore stocks to watch out for!!!
Do recommend your friends to this workshop!

Date: 28 Nov 2013, Thu (English Seminar)  7pm - 10pm
          29 Nov 2013,  Fri (华文讲座) 7pm - 10pm

Sharing on
1) Spore Stocks that are trending upwards that you should take note of
2) Spore Stocks that did well for earnings
3) Spore Stocks that are giving good dividends
4) Spore Stocks that are suitable for short term trading
5) Spore Stocks that are defensive plays

Plus we will be providing analysis on your stocks!

Venue: 141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building #07-02 S(069541) Tanjong Pagar MRT Exit G, walk straight 80m, opposite the traffic light

Speaker: Andy Yew (ART system Founder) 


To register pls click here 

or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623 

Will Crude travel in a range between $90 and $100?

Dear Friends,

Crude Oil has been travelling in box pattern. Recently it drops quite a bit from its high of $112 during the height of the Syria crisis. We think that it might be travelling in this range $90 to $100 until the end of the year. We do think that crude below $90 may be worth a BUY if it touches!


Rgds
Daniel

Wednesday, 27 November 2013

胡立阳文章:行情启动,必须一鼓作气

投资朋友们曾问过我,若行情连续盘跌好几个月,但有天指数突然暴涨,且涨幅超过2%,有人会说这是底部到了,可以开始买进了。但也有专家说这可能只是昙花一现的跌深反弹,还须小心并继续观察,真让人茫然不知所措,究竟该如何应对呢?
股市跌深之后,终于有天出现了久久不见的大涨,这究竟是一波新行情的开始,或是另一次的陷阱?总是会叫大家既期待又怕受伤害。
我的观察研究是,一波真正行情的开始,常会经过两个初期阶段:
一、大涨之后的下面3天,行情大多呈现欲罢不能的走势,指数常是气势如虹般的不断冲高。倘若大涨之后的第二天指数就已经走不太动了,甚至大幅拉回,这就必须注意,如果再宽限两天,也就是到3∼5天都无法再创反弹高点或是维持在高档区域,就有可能是假突破或只是昙花一现的跌深反弹。因为股市在关键点反弹必须一鼓作气,否则就会演变成“再而衰、三而竭”的下场。
二、大涨之后的第5∼15个交易日,是行情最疲累的时段,指数常会拉回休息。在这10天之间,必须注意指数不能又跌回起涨点,并且逐日观察大盘的10日移动平均线,是否仍维持在上升状态,以确定行情尚未熄火。

Thursday, 21 November 2013

Malaysia Stock Tip: Puncak hits our $3.47 target, YLI run has not finished

Dear Friends,

Recently Singapore market is as dead as a fish. But not Malaysia! Sometimes it is always good to look at another market when things are not going well for Singapore. Malaysia has been one of my favourite hunting grounds recently!

Do you remember that we recommended Puncak when it is $2.83? We said that professional money is inside the stock.

http://www.danielloh.com/2013/09/malaysia-stock-tips-puncak-niaga-yti.html

It hits our target of $3.10 within a short time. Then we said that if Puncak can break $3.30, it is going for $3.47.

http://www.danielloh.com/2013/10/malaysia-stock-tip-congrats-on-those.html

It did hit the highest $3.50 recently! Our target of $3.47 is hit! But guess what, these few days it drops to $3.35 now! We got out near the perfect spot!

I am again on this stock! It is now almost dropping into my watch zone at $3.21-$3.29 again!



--------------------------------------------------------------------------

By the way, we also did issue another call on YLI. This stock did not perform that quickly though. However recently it gained momentum. We recommend at $0.68 setting a first target of $0.77-$0.80. Now it is at $0.795.

http://www.danielloh.com/2013/09/malaysia-stock-tips-puncak-niaga-yti.html

But we think it might be moving towards our second target of $0.89-$0.90.


In fact we think this stock may be worth a serious look today on a down day! Let us see how the stock runs!

Dear Singaporeans, Remember that Malaysia is still a worthwhile market when things go slow!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Today Ben Bernanke reminded us that Gold is still subjected to a plunge!

Dear Friends,

Recently you may have think that gold has stabilized and bottomed. Today after the announcement of the Fed minutes, Gold price drop $13. The Fed minutes stated "suggested the central bank is looking for ways to exit or at least slow down the controversial program in fairly short order."

Minutes from the Oct. 29-30 meeting showed that officials considered reducing the size of the asset-purchase program even “before an unambiguous further improvement in the [labor-market] outlook was apparent.”

From the technical perspective I think once next quarter comes, pressure will be on to decrease the QE and gold might plunge below the $1200 strong support! I am quietly waiting for that to happen. A breakdown off $1200 might set the gold price to head for $1100. A panic as severe as the April crash is not likely to happen, but a fast decline is still expected.

Having said that, I still think that $1200 is a strong support for this year. Gold might likely head for this figure and bounce off.

Next year when QE tapering expectations is high is the point to short the Gold futures or ETF!



Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Wednesday, 20 November 2013

Free Singapore Stocks Seminar by Andy Yew

<<What are the singapore stocks to BUY and SHORT in this December market?>>

<<十二月份 可以买或卖空的股票>>

sharing by Andy Yew

Join us to know what Singapore stocks to watch out for!!!
Do recommend your friends to this workshop!

Date: 21 Nov 2013, Thu (English Seminar)  7pm - 10pm
          22 Nov 2013,  Fri (华文讲座) 7pm - 10pm

Sharing on
1) Spore Stocks that are trending upwards that you should take note of
2) Spore Stocks that did well for earnings
3) Spore Stocks that are giving good dividends 
4) Spore Stocks that are suitable for short term trading
5) Spore Stocks that are defensive plays 

Plus we will be providing analysis on your stocks!

Venue: 141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building #07-02 S(069541) Tanjong Pagar MRT Exit G, walk straight 80m, opposite the traffic light

Speaker: Andy Yew (ART system Founder) 
To register pls click here 

or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623 

Shanghai Composite recovered fast after breaking 2100!

Dear Friends,

Last Wednesday, we did advise to look at Shanghai Composite after it dropped due to the disappointment in the Third Plenum meeting. We did mention that 2000-2050 is the targeted zone we are looking at. But if things get better, a breakout off 2100 is a good point to enter! Indeed, things get so good that after it breaks off 2100, it zooms forward.

Check out our last post:
http://www.danielloh.com/2013/11/shanghai-composite-good-opportunity-at.html

Today, Shanghai composite reached 2193 within a short few days. Congrats for those that have followed our call!

If you still want to enter now, I suggest you need to wait. Although we remain slightly bullish, we think that price is already too high.

For those that are in a profit, you might want to shift up your stop loss to a profitable region. An example may be to shift it to 2180. This is money management rule number 2. Rule number 1 is to guard your downside. Rule number 2 is to guard your profits!

Have a good trading week!

We think that with the Black Friday coming next Friday, there is still room for US market to increase! Let us celebrate Thanksgiving and hope the Americans buy lots of presents and push up the index.

P.S. Black Friday is not a market crash but it is a joyous day for shopping after Thanksgiving. Americans call it Black Friday. It is also known to be the start of the seasonal Christmas Rally.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Tuesday, 19 November 2013

Market Outlook for US, Japan and Singapore these 2 weeks!

Dear Friends,

Today, I am interviewed by Mediacorp Channel 8 to give my views about the upcoming market, sectors and a particular stock called CSE Global. I have summarised the following points in mandarin below.

You may also watched the LIVE Interview on xin.msn.
http://video.xin.msn.com/browse/catch-up-tv/good-morning-Singapore

Interview starting from 13.05 minutes.

 
 

--------------------------------------------------------

Q&A

1. 本地股市上个星期保持平稳,《海峡时报指数》上周五闭市报3201点,整个星期起24点或者百分之8?什么原因。

 STI上个星期五闭市报3201点。整个星期起了24点。股市起伏不大原因是好坏消息都有。上个星期三,海峡指数受中国三中全会的失望影响了。股市当天掉了20点。但是过后又因为美国新联储局主席耶伦Yellen大力的倡导QE的政策而让美国道琼斯连续三天连长创高点,使到股市走强,也让海指星期四和五表现不错。

2.
谈谈美国纽约股市上个星期的表现,还有华尔街股市接下来会有怎样的走势?(道琼斯工商指数星期4攀高创纪录。联储局主席耶伦,暗示将继续推行刺激政策,这是美国股市上扬的主要原因?)

确实。Yellen帮了美国股票一把。短期美国股市还是很强劲,短期我们觉得美国股市还有上升空间,11月还会继续走强。但我们也觉得美国股市跑得有点快,鼓励大家留意是否121月有走弱的征兆。在这里给大家3个美国股市走弱的征兆? 1) 一天掉100 2)连续3天掉 3)两个星期连续掉

3.
东京股市上星期五表现强劲,日经指数攀升到6个月来的高峰,这股强劲会带动本地股市吗?

 短期很有可能会有影响!今年很多世界投资家都很留意日本股市,因为日经7个月里就跑了一倍,从8000点跑到16000点。所以他对亚洲股市有巨大的影响力。我们判断日经指数会迈向16000点,但是接近16000点,大家一定要小心亚洲股市,会有很大的压力。日经到16000点,可以的话,先套利。

4.
你怎样看待本地股市接下来的走势?这个星期会起还是跌?

我们整体上是看好新加坡这两个星期的表现。这个星期我们觉得日本股市和美国股市有可能继续带动新加坡股市。下个周末美国有Black FridayBlack Friday 是美国在Thanksgiving节日过后大减价的日子。我们觉得这个会推动股市再创高点。

5.
海峡时报指数接下来会在哪个范围内波动?

 海峡指数会在3150点到3300点的区间波动。我们一向都鼓励大家要投资,最好是等海峡指数掉到3150点一下。接近3300点要很小心。

6.
新电信第二季净利微起《0.3%》,达到《8亿7000万元》。你怎样看待新电信的表现?还有本地电信业股接下来展望?

 我们觉得这个成绩一般,不怎么好。这一次新电讯的业绩有受到货币的影。新币走强,奥币走弱,印尼顿走弱影响到了整体的业绩。电讯这个领域这个季度整体的报告一般,这个季度我们都不怎么看好,短期上涨空间有限。

7.
根据《星展唯高达证券研究》报告,对《CSE Global》维持〈买入〉评级,把目标价从〈1块零7分〉调高到〈111分〉,谈谈您的解读?(report attached above: DBS Vickers (Spore) CSE Global: Commendable IPO proceeds; BUY S$0.945; Price Target: 12-month S$1.11 (Prev S$1.07)
CSE Global接下来是值得看的。31)它旗下投资的公司Servelec会在2014年上市,能让CSE Global赚增加利润。2)在2014年,公司预测能在中国拿到环保的订单 3)他在美国,非洲的生意有成长的空间。

8. 2013
年股市只剩下一个半月的交易,投资者应该采取怎样的投资策略?

我们股票的业绩报告很多已经出来了。鼓励大家称机会找到一些业绩不错的股票。做一个组合整理。那些业绩不好的股票换掉,找出一些有成长空间的股票,业绩比预期还好的股票。

 9. 还有哪些领域的股票具有投资的潜能?为什么?
我们觉得转运股是可以做长期投资的。船运是一个国际的领域。只从2011年的欧债危机和中国打压的政策就开始掉到现在。我们的判断是明年中国和欧洲的经济开始复苏,这会带动船运业。大家可以做一个长期的投资。

10. 市场关注的利率走势,接下来会有怎样的发展?如果利率上升,哪些行业的股票会受到影响

 利率有两种,短期利率现在是保持在0%2015年。长期利率,10公债殖利率现在是2.6%。这几个月都一直在2.5%-3%徘徊。我们觉得很有可能明年第一季会突破3%。原因是明年第一季新的联储席有压力要降QE,退市。这会使公债突破3%。房地产第一个受影响。

Sunday, 17 November 2013

Live TV Interview at Studio on Channel 8 (早安你好) Mon 18 Nov 2013 at 7.48am

Dear Friends,

I am asked to comment live in studio to give my views on the local stock market, the US all time high run-up, the Nikkei bullishness, the sectors that may be in play and personal views on some particular stocks early morning at 7.48am (Mon, 18 Nov 2013). 20 minutes session with live call-in.

If you want to know more about the market direction, tune in to your television, Channel 8.

Rgds
Daniel

Thursday, 14 November 2013

Singapore Stock Tip: OSIM is travelling within our expectations!

Dear Friends,

Do you still remembered that we have been recommending to buy this stock when it broke $2? In our latest article, we did mention that Osim most likely will be travelling in the range of $2.20-$2.30. Indeed recently, it touched $2.33 before retracing to $2.21, then it moves to $2.34 before dropping today to end at $2.22.



The last article we mentioned about this stock, we did mention this:
"These few days we predict it should be travelling in between $2.20-$2.30. Technically it has a strong support at $2.10"
http://www.danielloh.com/2013/11/good-fundamental-earnings-from-osim.html

$2.20 to $2.30 is really a tricky zone for this stock.

Mid term wise (3months), we think you may accumulate the stock at $2.10 should it fall to that price! We are still bullish about this stock.

Good Target price to buy:  $2.13 (mid position size)
Best Target price to buy: $2.03 (may open Bigger position size)

Mid term target: $2.47 

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Wednesday, 13 November 2013

Shanghai Composite good opportunity at 2000 - 2050!

Dear Friends,

These few days I have been a bit busy and taking a leave. Sorry for not contributing enough articles. Ha, anyway, local market is really sluggish locally, so not much opportunities anyway. 

However today's drop in China due to the Third Plenum meeting has been a disappointment and leads to a bad fall in Shanghai composite and Hang Seng.

It has dropped to a point I think is worth a look. 

My target for picking up Shanghai composite is 2000-2050. Today it drops to 2087. That is a good mid term buying zone for me!!! 

In fact if things get better, and if it did not drop further, a breakout off 2100 is also a good chance to enter. 


By the way as we are foreigners, we are not allowed to buy Shanghai Comp. The best alternative you might to look at is A50 ETF. Need to ask your brokerage house on this.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Monday, 11 November 2013

Free Singapore Stocks Seminar by Andy Yew

<<What are the singapore stocks to BUY and SHORT in this November market?>>

<<十一月份 可以买或卖空的股票>>

sharing by Andy Yew

Join us to know what Singapore stocks to watch out for!!!
Do recommend your friends to this workshop!

Date: 13 Nov 2013, Wed (English Seminar)  7pm - 10pm
          15 Nov 2013,  Fri (华文讲座) 7pm - 10pm

Sharing on
1) Spore Stocks that are trending upwards that you should take note of
2) Spore Stocks that did well for earnings
3) Spore Stocks that are giving good dividends 
4) Spore Stocks that are suitable for short term trading
5) Spore Stocks that are defensive plays 

Plus we will be providing analysis on your stocks!

Venue: 141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building #07-02 S(069541) Tanjong Pagar MRT Exit G, walk straight 80m, opposite the traffic light

Speaker: Andy Yew (ART system Founder) 

To register pls click here 

or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623 

Friday, 8 November 2013

The 120 points drop don't look good for the US market

Dear Friends,

It does seem the US market is getting weaker. Dow drops 120 points now. S&P500 drop 18 points now at 3.35am. It has been quite some time S&P500 has such a big drop. I suggest caution in the short term going long in the US market. Asia market might also be weaker tomorrow.

I suggest we study the market these few days. This is especially true when there is a non farm payroll happening tomorrow night. I think 2moro may also be a down day. Hopefully the market do not take tomorrow data to take profit in the market too much.

Mid term wise, I feel the market is in for a small correction. Although I feel that the christmas rally will still come, hopefully the market can take a pause these few weeks. It is only after a pause that this rally will go to a higher height.

So for now, don't do any action in the stock market until next week is my advice. CAUTION!

3 factors to note to condirm downturn.
1) Dow drops by 100 points (we have this shown today)
2) 3 days drop in DOW
3) 2 weeks drop in DOW

Rgds
Daniel

Thursday, 7 November 2013

Free Singapore Stocks Seminar by Andy Yew

<<What are the singapore stocks to BUY and SHORT in this November market?>>

<<十一月份 可以买或卖空的股票>>

sharing by Andy Yew

Join us to know what Singapore stocks to watch out for!!!
Do recommend your friends to this workshop!

Date: 7 Nov 2013, Thu (English Seminar)  7pm - 10pm
          8 Nov 2013,  Fri (华文讲座) 7pm - 10pm

Sharing on
1) Spore Stocks that are trending upwards that you should take note of
2) Spore Stocks that did well for earnings
3) Spore Stocks that are giving good dividends 
4) Spore Stocks that are suitable for short term trading
5) Spore Stocks that are defensive plays 

Plus we will be providing analysis on your stocks!

Venue: 141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building #07-02 S(069541) Tanjong Pagar MRT Exit G, walk straight 80m, opposite the traffic light

Speaker: Andy Yew (ART system Founder) 

To register pls click here 

or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623 

Monday, 4 November 2013

Earnings dates for Singapore Stocks

Do click here to know about the dates:

http://www.danielloh.com/p/earnings-dates-for-local-stocks.html

Singapore Stock Tip: China Aviation Oil is a must-watch this quarter!

Dear Friends,

I like stocks that revived because of strong earnings. One such stock this season may be China Aviation Oil (CAO). The earnings released caused the price to jump up today! This is the summary of the earnings.


63.4% quarter on quarter earnings increase! Not bad for a stock near its 52 week low. Currently the price is $1.02 at closing, increase by $0.07 today. But I don't think that is the end of this stock. It is proposing a 1-5 bonus subject to approval.

Bonus news:
http://www.shareinvestor.com/news/news.html?source=sg_si_express&nid=71287

Expectations on this stock will be good before the bonus issue.

Another plus point is that CAO is seasonally strong in november and december. Check out the chart for these 2 years. It coincides with the strong seasonal trend in energy industry.


Short term wise, these few days this stock might stay stagnant because of the gap up. You should have the patience should it consolidate for a few days.


Now: $1.02
Support: $1.00 or $0.90 (strong)
Stop loss: $0.89
Short term Target 1: $1.10
Target 2:  $1.17-$1.20

Channel 8早安你好电视分享 2013年11月2日:ValueMax 上市会怎样?

QUESTIONS:
1.       美国纽约股市道琼斯工商指数闭市报《???》点,《起/跌》百分之《??》。哪些因素是投资者应该关注的?

我是蛮看好美国在第四季度的表现。3个原因。
a)      美国今年不会退市。资金在股市中还不会面对紧缩问题
b)      美国公司整体到现在第三季度的业绩报告都相当不错
c)       美国将进入整年最好投资的两个月份,11月和12月。因为有很多节日,很多公司会因为业绩的期望值而可能会上升。
但是道琼斯目前也到了15700点的阻力或关键点。前天到达了,就下滑了。我鼓励等道琼斯突破15700点,3天不掉回这个数字再进场。

2.       《鑫道投资分析公司》研究报告,对《方圆 ValueMax》的评级是〈增持〉,合理价是〈82分〉,昨天的闭市价是〈?块?分〉,谈谈您的解读?

 从长远投资来说,我觉得ValueMax 的潜能是有限的。为什么我这么说?
a)      通常投资IPO,我喜欢看那个领域或公司是否有发展空间,股价是否有潜能翻倍。我觉得当店这个领域的发展是有限的。要投资这支股票,可能大家要问:ValueMax 的客户会每一年稳定的增加吗?我觉得当店这个领域不容易。

   或者店能每一年增加更多店铺吗?ValueMax 在新加坡已经有17间了,要增加不容易。

      ValueMax的营业额能每年增长15%吗?从2011年到2012年,ValueMax 的营业额也没增加反而减少就证明了这个行业发展速度是有限的。除非ValueMax 可以推出一个全盘计划如何在海外大量拓展业务

b)      但话说回来,跟其他两间当店领域的公司对比,ValueMax还是比较出色,比较有价值的。

3.       本地股市昨天闭市报《???》点,《起/跌》百分之《??》。预计接下来的走势如何


STI这几天都一直在3200-3230点之间徘徊整理。我们的判断是一旦STI整理完毕,是有可能往上升的。我们判断STI有可能在年底前迈向3300点的阻力。这也当然需要美国股市的推动。STI近期的支持是3150点。如果有机会跌到3150以下,都可以进场。当然接近3300点,短期投资的朋友要小心。

Singapore Stock Tip: Good fundamental earnings from OSIM push it past $2.17

Dear Friends,

You may have noticed today OSIM broke out off short term $2.17 resistance. Now it is at $2.21. Recently it declared its earnings on 1 november. I think OSIM did resonably well for its earnings.

For more info on earnings, do log on to its website:
http://osim.listedcompany.com/news.html/id/378360

16% net profit quarterly growth rate is quite good, and with an opening of 17 more outlets for the quarter is promising. This is much better than "ValueMax", a retail outlet in the pawn shop business. As a retailer, this is what we are looking for, an increasing in the profit margin, an increase in outlets, a reach that is beyond Singapore, a pioneer leading Asia Brand. Some of you may say that these 2 are in different industries, but to me a company selling watch and a company selling message chairs are all retailers.

The concept of growth are the same, it needs to show "GROWTH".

I would classify OSIM as a good long term growth stock! Short term, it may benefit from the festival season happening in Asia this and next quarter. 

These few days we predict it should be travelling in between $2.20-$2.30. Technically it has a strong support at $2.10 like what we mentioned in last article.

Last article on OSIM:
http://www.danielloh.com/2013/10/singapore-stock-tip-we-are-right-in.html

Now: $2.22
3months Target: $2.47
Stop loss: $1.97

Friday, 1 November 2013

My view on IPO stock ValueMax in an interview on TV channel 8

Dear Friends,

Today I was interviewed in the morning session on Channel 8 mediacorp to discuss my views on this newly listed IPO: ValueMax, which created a bit of a hype due to a research report by SIAS research stating its potential to reach 80cts.

Whenever investing in a IPO stock, I will be assessing its potential to see if there is ability for the business to increase multiplefold within a few years or whether the earnings has growth. If not, I would not even see the stock.

The word I am looking for is "GROWTH"!

For valuemax, I think its potential is limited by its industry. This is an industry whereby growth is really limited. Pawnshop industry? Maybe we have to ask ourselves these few questions to consider investing in a IPO.

1) As a retailer, does ValueMax have the ability to increase its clients? I think it is tough as we all know this business is competitive. With 2 other listed companies, it is tough to increase more clients. Almost every good location is occupied. ValueMax does not splash on adverts like the other pawnshops. If it cannot continuously every year increase its clients, this stock might not grow much because it is regional.

2) Can Valuemax increase its number of shops? Although the company says it will, it is tough being in singapore. 17 shops already. How many can you open? I know that it has 4 outlets in malaysia, but unless they can come out with a concrete plan to expand overseas, the expansion is limited.

3) Can Valuemax increase its revenue? Not much judging by its FY audited results from 2011-2012. In fact the earnings or EPS drop in this period. An IPO that does not grow its earnings or the capability is never a good investment. If there is no growth prospect at its "exciting" infancy IPO stage, then all the more it might not happen 10 years later.

One reason for the no growth is that Valuemax is not in the industry to increase pricing anytime. They depend on people who wants to pawn their things. No price control over its products or services.

HOW TO INCREASE EARNINGS then?? 

That is the reason why they say they are willing to distribute 50% of the net profits as dividends! 50% of what you make???? OMG! This is a company that solely relies on trying to entice people to buy up their share price. This is the only way they ensure the shares don't drop. In fact, I never like to invest in a stock that gives up too much dividends as this shows me the company has little capability of expansion. Doesn't it have the vision of opening multiple outlets in Asia?

What I feel about ValueMax is they need to think abroad. Focusing on tiny singapore won't ever work. Of course, along the way they may branch into other businesses. But judging the business now, I seriously think they are Not the GROWING IPO company we are looking for as we always look for exciting IPO companies that can multiply their share price in years to come.

80cts target is never what I want in an IPO. I am always expecting more in an IPO.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com




Radio FM958访谈 2018年11月15日:世界股市展望 - 现在是熊市吗?

·         美国 股市担心苹果业绩,巴菲特却大胆投资! 道琼斯昨晚闭市在 25080 ,掉了 205 点。在这 10 月 11 月道琼斯的波动都相当大。有很多投资朋友开始怀疑熊市是不是已经来临了。我的答案是还没有。这个跌幅反而是好时机进场。大家不用太担心。 ...