Friday, 4 July 2014
TV interview about Keppel Corp with Daniel Loh: This stock is dead! 电视采访骆伟嵩--吉宝: 这是一支死股！
1) Dow Jones yesterday broke 17000, making another all time high
2) The rise is because of the Good Non farm payroll and unemployment rate figures
3) We believe that Dow Jones will be quite healthy this month. The possibility of a sharp correction is slim
1) STI recently drop from 3300 but still looks healthy to me. The drop is shallow.
2) We predict that with the good US market, there is a good chance it might break 3300.
3) We still believe that STI might be in the region between 3300 and 3450 in the 3rd quarter.
I don’t agree with the Analyst target of $12.50 and we don’t encourage all to invest in this stock. 3 reasons
1) There is no growth in Keppel these few years. Last year 2013, it makes $1.8billion. This year, it was forecast to earn $1.4 billion. 2015 $1.4billion again. It simply isn’t growing for these coming two years.
2) Although Keppel got a big contract, but it was forecasted that this year total deal may only just meet the expected analyst estimate. It did not exceed the expectations.
3) Keppel does not have a good plan to increase its revenue.
4) We believe that Keppel will still continue to be in a sideway trend. Analyst estimate of $12.50, 5 years high is tough!
1) 第一是Keppel Corp这几年的成长速度一般。去年赚$18亿。今年预测赚$14亿。2015年预计赚$14亿。2014和2015这两年盈利都没涨。
2) 第二Keppel Corp虽然拿到了订单，但是估计今年的总订单也只不过和分析师预测的一样，没有更多。
3) 第三Keppel Corp根本没有一个详细的计划让我们知道如何增加营业额。
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