Monday, 16 June 2014

Daniel Loh Radio interview: Will STI still break 3300 amid geopolitical tension in Iraq and Ukraine?

Below are my summarised points about my views of the stock market on air, FM 95.8 radio station

US market

·         US Dow Jones yesterday dropped more than 100 points. These 2 days Dow has dropped around 200 points. Yesterday drop is due to 2 factors. One is the retail sales report is not that good. The other is the geopolitical uncertainty that happens to Iraq.
·         I think this slide is temporary though. We believe that Dow will not drop sharply this month. But it may go consolidate in a sideway pattern for this month.
·         Yesterday the crude increase sharply but we think it is temporary.
·         Yesterday Oil increase because Obama in his speech did not give a clear signal to help Iraq. That makes traders worried. But I believe that US will definitely not allow the terrorist to conquer Baghdad. They wont allow the crude supply to go down. It has not happened in the last 50 years since the oil crisis that happened in 1970. It is not going to happen! If US smell danger, I believe they will send planes to bombard the terrorist base and all will be well again. If US is not worried, why should we?? This situation is different from the Iraqi war where US is against the Iraqi government regime.
·         Ever since the Ukraine incident, stock market has stabilize and having no more worries. That is the reason why Dow and S&P 500 reach all time high again.
·         In previous radio interview, we did ask people to invest in Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices. All have recovered well!
·         Please dont be afraid of crisis or problems. If the index cant drop, there wont be opportunities like that of Nasdaq and Russell 2000 for me to buy cheap.
·         Then what is cheap now?
·         If Dow manage to drop 5%, that to me is cheap. In this bullish market, Dow cant drop much.
·         Dow Jones short term support at 16600. The biggest support is 16000! If it drops below 16000, everybody better invest. It is cheap again!

Singapore Market

·         In recent interviews, we did mention that hot money is in emerging market now! Singapore is considered an emerging market. At the beginning of the year, we did ask all not to be afraid of emerging market. We should invest in it. And we predict in May that within 1-3 months STI will break 3000 resistance.
·         These few days, STI is struggling at 3300. But it is very resilient too! The day before, Dow goes down 100 points but STI increases by 3 points. Yesterday Dow decreases another 100 points, and STI is dropping 1 point only.
·         Judging from this behavior, we think that all shall see STI standing above 3300 soon.
·         Once it stand above 3300 and did not drop back below 3300 in 5 days time, it can be considered as a good breakout.
·         We did say before that we think STI in the 3rd quarter should be moving in between 3300 and 3450. We still maintain this view.
·         I believe that even if this week STI falls, it wont be hard.
·         Whenever STI falls 100 points, it can be considered oversold. I am just afraid that this Iraq situation wont have such an influence to cause STI to drop so much.
·         This few months, we encourage all to invest in high dividend yield stocks. The loose monetary policy in Europe will be beneficial to high yielding stocks.

·         Sectors you may watch out for: Reits, Medical, Industrial and Technology

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