US Focus this week will be on Spanish Bond Auction on Thu

Dear Friends,

In US, this week is a fully filled earnings week. Starting from Monday, Citigroup will announce its earnings Before Market Open. After JP Morgan and Wells Fargo dismay results, market is looking to Citigroup for a shot in confidence in the Financial Sector.

On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs earnings will influence the Financial Sector. IBM and Intel will influence the technological sector while Pharmaceutical companies will look up to Johnson & Johnson.

On Wednesday, American Express will influence credit companies like Visa and Mastercard.

On Thursday, Market will FOCUS on the Spanish Bond Auction, where some analysts forecast might not be that good. Just be careful! So keep double eyes on that auction. On Thursday, Microsoft will also create an influence on Tech sector.

So much filled action this week from earnings plays. Just keep note of the sectors you play and look at some of the influential companies that might influence your stock!

Attached are some influential companies releasing earnings:

Google indeed Dictate the Market on Friday - in the worst way possible!

Dear Friends,

As I have mentioned, Google probably will dictate Friday Market. It contributed in the Dow decreasing by a triple digit 136 points on Friday. The Fear of China slowdown is back, although the paradox is that Shanghai actually increase for the day. I have time and again mentioned that April might not be that good a month to trade on the upside as ECONOMICAL Reports are not that good. I told in our last article that I am not convinced when Dow increased 200 points on Wed and Thu. Friday proves the point!

Google after releasing its earnings on Thursday night, went down $26 on Friday. What is amazing is that it actually beats its earnings estimate by $0.51, an upside surprise of 6.19%. However what caused this stock to collapse is that Google reported a 12% year-over-year decline in cost-per-clicks.

Btw, Google shows the unpredictability of earnings. Lesson to be learn in Trading! Never hold any stocks through earnings if you are a short term player.

Will Google rise back again? YES! This quarter will have opportunities to play it again. Just that it needs a Rest. Every stocks Rest before they run.

Apple was also dragged down. It was dragged down because BIG MONEY has left the stock. That is the reason that on Thursday, we issued a statement that Apple has been lying dead, and we don't see any heartbeat. On Friday Apple reached a low of $603.

I am using a microscope to scrutinize this stock now. $600 is the STRONG Support, I would pay attention if I see any revival, especially if this stock starts to move more than $10 a single day. Would take a look again if it exceeds $615.

But all in all, my advice in trading is that we should always STUDY the market before stocks. As we have mentioned that Market is not that favorable now, just be prudent and careful in our approach. Remember your stop loss this month!

There is always another time to make back our Money! Move on if you have lost this week. Take a breather, study the market, plan your trades, get back to basics. 

THIS IS THE LIFE OF A TRADER!

Rgds
Daniel

Google will dictate Direction of US Market 2moro

Dear Friends,

As Focus change to earnings, we need to start to keep track of some of the companies earnings. Tonight after market close, Google will announce its earnings. This stock has been so high profile that I think it will determine the direction of the US market 2moro.

Analyst expects it to produce an EPS of $8.24 Last quarter EPS is $8.22. After falling short last quarter, I think Google might have a chance to beat this time. Let us see how everything goes tonight.

Apple has been lying dead ever since 3 days ago after touching a high of $644. At this current moment, I don't see any signs of revival. No heartbeat at all in this stock. Forget about it now..

Rgds

Wallstreet recovers with Dow Jones up 116 points, But I am not that convinced

Dear Friends,

I am tilting towards being more bearish than bullish now. Especially since our NYSE market sentiment indicator tells me that. As we have mentioned, we are looking for the Bearish signal confirmation ever since February. The risk has been high in this overbought situation.

Look at the economical calendar for the first week.

So many reports less than expectations.... See the Red colour figures?

The tide may have changed for the broad market. In fact I would love it if this drop persists. If not, we got no chance to enter, right? I am sure in the last rally, there are still many investors waiting in the sidelines but haven't entered.

If you want to enter a bullish position, my advice is to do a hedging by entering another bearish position. For me, I would still long some Good Stocks that are fundamentally strong. But I would hedge it with a Bearish Position on another weak counter too!

As I have also mentioned, April is earnings season month. Some of our focus will shift to how the companies are doing. At least the market may not drop that bad, if earnings of some major companies this season is good.

However my ADVICE is BE Careful when entering LONG position this month! Lower your position amount. It will not be as good a month to trade compared to Jan and Feb. 

Like what Mr Hu Li Yang mentions, we have 5-7 chances to make $ throughout the year. But I don't think April is not one of the months that can make you Big $!

Being Patient and Prudent is the Key Now!

Rgds
Daniel

Market Sentiment Indicator for 11 Apr

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 68.35% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)

(NYSE Exchange Stocks has turned bearish)
2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 61.68% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 77.20% (Bearish signal: Bear Alert 10 Apr)
(S&P500 Stocks has turned bearish)  

4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 44.18%   (Bearish signal: Bear Alert on 7 Mar)
5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 87.65% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 5 Dec)
6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 83.33% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 11 Jan)

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

Article by Mr Hu Li Yang: Oil Price below $110 胡立阳说油价会低过$110

缺乏实际需求 油价大涨不易      

还记得2008年7月，油价曾飞涨到每桶147美元天价的往事吗？当时，有鉴于石油供需完全正常，这么荒唐的油价当然不具备基本面的支撑，我因此独排众议的发表了“油价即将大崩盘”的论点。5个月之后，油价果然一路暴跌，最后是摔到33.5元。当初认为油价会攻上200元的人，想必个个都跌破了眼镜。

最近，2月份的纽约油价再度一举冲破了百元大关，目前在105~110之间居高不下，当然又有专家纷纷喊出了150~200元的吓人价位。一时之间，人心惶惶，大家又开始担心通胀要来了。

那么，这一次油价的上涨具备基本面的支撑吗？

首先，众所皆知，美国经济一直陷于胶着状态，复苏缓慢，而欧洲更因受到欧债风暴影响，不停地在衰退边缘挣扎，在低迷的氛围蔓延之下，连过去两、三年表现出色的亚洲经济也开始迅速降温。经济发展停滞，2012年全球石油的实际需求量，势必将大幅减少，预期国际能源总署以及相关研究机构在几个月前所公布的油量需求成长数字也将跟着下修。

因此，我要说目前油价的上涨，与2008年的背景如出一辙，并非是由实质需求造成，大部分仍是由“零利率”时代所逼出的热钱投机炒作而成，这些时时刻刻都在蠢蠢欲动的热钱，这回显然是相中了伊朗局势动荡的话题，想要再创造出一波高油价的行情。只不过，金融风暴之后，包括对冲基金在内的许多投机资金，大都损失惨重，想要呼风唤雨的实力早已大不如前。

油价未来将何去何从？

油价的上涨，既非由基本面所造成，想要知道它的走势，至少在短在线，就需由技术面来探询：

2008年当油价开始由最高峰的147元下跌时，我即采用自己所发明的“二分之一”测底法，由上而下的先计算出它的合理价位是在73元(即147÷2)，

而 底部区会在36元(即73÷2)以下。结果在2008年的12月底，油价果然是在33.5元触底。我在其后紧接着计算出反弹必定会来到73元的合理价位， 此后，任何因素再促使油价飙涨，会遇上的第一道重要关卡，改换成由下而上计算，将会是在110元，即(73+147)÷2。

因此，油价由上个月底到目前为止，每每触及110元时总像是碰到高压电线一样的立即回落，不是吗？

结论是，近期，110元仍是油价的天险难关。长期而言，由于缺乏实质强劲需求，油价根本不具备大涨的条件，即使涨过110元，上方空间也极为有限。

还在担心高油价会带来高通胀吗？我想，至少目前没有必要的。

It is a Hideous Day in WallStreet, Time to be careful in April while Focus change to Earnings

Dear Friends,

Dow Jones is down by 183 points now in mid day trading session. Nasdaq is now below 3000 points. Almost all sectors are in the Red. The market is dragged down by Europe as FTSE100 ended the day down 128 points, a 2.24% drop. And of course, Europe opens today after a 4 day rest. It was affected by the terrible Non Farm Payroll result.

Like I mentioned, there are 2 kinds of fundamental economical reports that drives the market direction. One is enterprise report, the other is Public report. Non farm is a public report. April market direction won't be good. My advise would be to cut down on the position size even if you want to enter.

In fact last month, on 10 March, I mentioned that there might be consolidation early April:
http://www.danielloh.com/2012/03/good-non-farm-payroll-beat-expectations.html

This is my quote in the article:
"I expect this month, at some time the market will have a consolidation, may be in mid March, or beginning of April. Depending on any bad news that can create a small panic. But of course knowing the exact timing isn't easy. I always rely on my Market Sentiment Indicator of NYSE and S&P500 to tell me. Once it turns bearish, I would go bearish."

I know that RISK has been high after February, we just need a bad economical report to spark a consolidation. Well, this month Non farm payroll on Friday might be the spark.

My view is that this Month we need to be really careful. You may stay in the sideline if you can. Because, I think after today's fall, my Market Sentiment Indicator of NYSE might turn bearish. I need to check it at end of day though. If my NYSE market sentiment indicator goes bearish, I will start to look for bearish stocks. Time to MAKE BIG MONEY in shorting some stocks now! I would probably have a combination of Long and Short positions now!

Meaning for every stock that I long, I will have a short position to hedge.

However, as I also mentioned, this month is Earnings Season month. Likewise, Singapore companies are going to release their earnings this or next month. We will still have companies that beat earnings and gap up. So the impact of the broad market on individual stock might not be as bad.

Just that we need to be extra careful in our stock selection for this MONTH!

Best Regards
Daniel

Question on Apple Play before earnings

Question posted by a Friend:

Hi Daniel, what is the next target for Apple? What do you think?

Answer:

My near term target for Apple is $647, yes, just $10 away. Now the price is $636 at closing.
Will it breakthrough? Perhaps, but I would sell at $647 first. It needs to consolidate a while. At least for 1 or 2 days.

After it breaks $650, I would go in again.

However my STRATEGY for this stock is I would DEFINITELY sell before its earnings day. Now there hasn't been a confirmed date on earnings released date. Probably 24th or 26th April. Apple high chance will be shot down on earnings day.  Forget what the PRESS say about this stock. The more hype there is, the more the stock will gap down.

I have seen so many High Growth Stocks being shot down by Wall Street on earnings day and I have lost so much $ during the last few years that I know this time, Apple might not beat the expectations.

However, after earnings, it can be time to accumulate this stock again!

Rgds
Daniel

Market Sentiment Indicator for 10 Apr

1) New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator: 72.77% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 7 Dec)
2) Nasdaq Sentiment indicator: 63.65% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 17 Jan)
3) S&P 500 Sentiment indicator: 81.40% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 5 Dec)   


4) Energy Sentiment indicator: 58.14%   (Bearish signal: Bear Alert on 7 Mar)
(Pls note that we give a BEARISH CALL on S&P 500 energy stocks at start of March. Now, they are falling like MAD! Avoid Energy stocks now!) 

5) Financial Sentiment indicator: 87.65% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 5 Dec)
6) Technology Sentiment indicator: 83.33% (Bullish signal: Bull confirmed 11 Jan)

A reading above 70 means Overbought condition. Pls note that entering position above 70 indicates Market Risk is high. You may want to play short term or lower your position size. If Bullish sign turns Bearish when reading is above 70 means you should liquidate positions. 

 

Pls note that this is not a RSI reading. Eg. New York Stock Exchange Sentiment indicator measures how many stocks are bullish now for all stocks listed in NYSE.

FED Smart move today stabilises the Market!

Dear Friends,

Now Dow is down 125 points and seems to be moving higher. A lot of US stocks gap down at the open and stabilizes too. Some great stocks like Apple and Priceline is back in the Green after gapping down at the open. Apple is running to NEW HIGH again! Mastercard is filling its gap down and near its high of $440 now.

Like what I mentioned in the last article, I think FED did an excellent job in revealing the Poor non farm payroll report on Friday, which happens to be a Holiday. This delayed action cools down the selloff impact. Today, I did not see any panic happening. Instead I see accumulation of some stocks before their earnings.

Studying the Options volatility, Apple Call and Bank of America Call showing great volatility, which means people are buying their calls anticipating a beat in earnings. My Apple call option increase so much in volatility even though the stock did not increase much today.

Hence I feel although the Non farm payroll report is a great disappointment, April is the month we start to focus on Earnings. We just need to pick stocks with excellent fundamentals so that we would not be hurt by any downfall in the market.

In the afternoon, I think more stocks will recover its loss gapping down. I sense today, some traders make use of the gap down to enter instead of exiting! 

If this upward momentum carries on till closing bell, 2moro US market has a Good chance of going up. Hence it is an opportunity to hold overnight position so that 2moro some stocks may gap up at the open. 

Daniel

Singapore Stock Tip: Noble going Down?

Hi friends,

STI down 25 points and currently trading at 2963. STI support level is 2936.

Technical view for Noble: See attached/below chart. Obviously it has broken below 1^st level support and if you look at the chart it has forming a Descending Triangle pattern and this kind of pattern is for short-sell opportunity.

Example of trade plan:

Short-sell entry at 1.315

Cut-loss at 1.35

Cover short-sell position at 1.24

Above mentioned is our view and only CFD can be used for short-sell.

ARTeam KL

--------------------------------------------------------------

Btw we will be conducting a FREE Seminar on Singapore Stocks

<<A.R.T. Traffic Light System: Using the system to predict where your stocks go accurately>>

On 12 Apr 2012, Thursday (English Seminar) or 13 Apr 2012, Friday (Chinese Seminar).

Do recommend your friends to this workshop!

Sharing on    1) An overall view of Technical Analysis strategies

                    2) A Traffic Light system revealed that teach you when to GO and STOP in trading

                    3) Market Outlook for March 2012

                    4) Traders' Habits

                    5) Individual Profile Diagnostic

Date: 12 Apr 2012, Thursday (English Seminar) or 13 Apr 2012, Friday (Chinese Seminar)
Time: 7pm – 10pm
Venue: 141 Cecil Street, Tung Ann Association Building #07-02 S(069541) Tanjong Pagar MRT Exit G, walk straight 80m, opposite the traffic light

Speaker: Andy Ong (ART system Founder)

To register pls click here 

or SMS <Name><Email><HP><Date><Number of seats> to 93676623