Saturday 10 March 2012

A good Non-Farm payroll beat expectations move Dow up 42 points in midday

Dear Friends,

My analysis on the Non farm payroll seems right as mentioned in my last article. Looking at the weekly jobless claims, and by doing some simple calculations, my prediction proves right that Non farm should beat expectations. My last article:

Having said that, as trader, I don't like risk. Normally I try not to predict if I don't have a losing position. But if I have a losing position like yesterday, I would hold as I expect market to be up today. This has been my strategy trading in US market for the last 9 years. That is why I can be one step ahead of the market, just by studying the economical reports. I encourage you should too.

After today's rise, Dow Jones again is close to the critical point 13000. The highest it goes today at this moment is 12970 and I guess that is the highest it will reach today as it is Friday. Friday afternoon normally are quiet days as traders do not try to take up positions.

My thoughts for next week and March:

1) Dow Should attempt to reach 13000 again as mentioned in last article as this week Jobs reports are good.
    STI should do the same at 3000.

2) But do not expect a fantastic March as generally enterprise reports are not up to expectations. Index will not fall terribly either. Not very good, not very bad.

3) I expect this month, at some time the market will have a consolidation, may be in mid March, or beginning of April. Depending on any bad news that can create a small panic. But of course knowing the exact timing isn't easy. I always rely on my Market Sentiment Indicator of NYSE and S&P500 to tell me. Once it turns bearish, I would go bearish.

4) As March may not be an easy month to trade where all stocks trend higher, we need to be extra vigilant in picking the right rosy stocks!

Do your homework! Good luck...

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