Malaysia Stock Tip: PWROOT still strong

Dear Friends,

On the 2nd Jan, we issued a stock tip on a malaysian counter PWROOT.
http://www.danielloh.com/2013/01/malaysia-stock-tip-sell-zhulian-look-at.html

We mentioned that
PWROOT mid term target:
stop loss: $1.15, target1: $1.27-$1.30, target2: $1.39-$1.40

Btw in the last article, we did mention sell Zhulian at $2.99 to change to this stock. $2.99 is Zhulain highest! Now Zhulian is at $2.78. You would have save money on Zhulian and make money in PWROOT.

 Not only has PWROOT gone to target 2, it is $1.53 now, and still looking strong.


Now I set a new target $1.59-$1.60 with a stop loss of $1.47. 

Let us see how it progress.

Most of the Singapore Stocks have dropped!

Dear Friends,

Playing local singapore stocks have proved to be a hard task recently. So many stocks have drop from the high. I think you would agree with me that Most of the Big Cap, Mid cap and Penny stocks suffered losses although the index is still near its high.

An example of some popular stocks falling from the high:

Big Cap:
1) Wilmar 3.92 to 3.33
2) Semb Corp 5.59 to 5.18
3) Semb Mar 4.87 to 4.48

Mid Cap:
1)Yoma: 0.925 to 0.750
2) Tat Hong: 1.60 to 1.48
3) Rotary: 0.615 to 0.475
4) Genting: 1.64 to 1.51

Penny Stocks: (A Disaster recently, some dropped by more than half)
1) We holdings: 0.205 to 0.067
2) Ntegrator: 0.151 to 0.086
3) Magnus: 0.095 to 0.048

In all our previous articles in Feb and Mar, we consistently advise everyone to cut down on existing positions because we think the risk is higher now. We did say that be careful of March and Early April as we think it might start to fall.

One of our past articles:
http://www.danielloh.com/2013/02/fantastic-jan-followed-by-sideways-feb.html

In February on radio station FM958, we did mention that the chances of stocks going down is higher than going up. Just be careful.

If you did follow our advice, you probably would have bought them now 10-20% from their peak. But having said that, we still believe that the US market might be turning down soon. Do take note that some Singapore Stocks do still have room to drop if US does drop. This is still not the time to acquire yet. Be patient!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

VIX is making a 6 years low, is it good or bad?

Dear Friends,

One of the indicators to study for market sentiment is breaking a 6 years historical low not seen since Apr 2007. VIX on monday stands at 11.56. VIX is widely labeled as the FEAR index and is normally inversely proportional to the stock market. In short it studies the S&P500 options to measure its volatility. High volatility often is caused by uncertainty and fear in the market. Low volatility often suggests calmness and joy in the market. Below is the chart:

We have entered into a phase where VIX is kept below the $20 mark, a place that signifies low volatility.

Is it a good thing or bad thing?

I hope it is not calmness before the storm. VIX one day will burst forward when panic grabs the market. We got a slight taste 2 weeks before when it shot up more than 30% 2 times in 4 days.

At the moment, let us enjoy the bull run in US. But also keep in mind that once VIX consistently rises, it may be time to leave the market.

ADP employment report continues to propel US market

Dear Friends,

Yesterday we saw Dow continues its movement up when it released a ADP employment report that is above expectations. It rises by 40 points. STI also rises yesterday with the hype of breaking new high by the DOW and soared 40 points, marking the best one day gain this year.

ADP employment report is a private report on the jobs status of America, seen as a precursor to the non farm payroll. Of course, it has an accuracy of being right 60% of the time in predicting the results of non farm payroll. For now, the opinion is tilted to a better than expected results for Friday Non farm. Optimistic news and that is the reason of Dow increase last night.

But having said that, taking a look at Singapore market, I did not see flourishness in a lot of stocks. It seems still dull to me as the stocks did not recover to its peak. Some barely turned. Some dropped back today. Hence, I would still suggest not to place your bets first. I sense some sluggishness in local market.

Will Non farm payroll on Friday revive the local stocks? not sure, we just have to wait and see.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Free Malaysia Investment Seminar in Bangsar, Fri, 8th Mar (7.30pm-10pm)

Please right click and save the attached picture 
or click on picture and right click to view image.  
Registration can be done by SMS <Name><HP><Email><No of seats> or Calling  +6012 377 1342

Thank you!

Answer to a Friend about Singapore Market

Dear Friends,

A friend asked me why I am so quiet about my blog. Seems like I did not give many tips recently. Ha, as I have mentioned, I am not very confident about the market yet. Hence I am lying low now before the BIG Jobs report on Friday.

We can attribute the bullishness of US market to the good ISM reports in both manufaturing and non-manufacturing sectors. However I do not want to add any bullish positions before the employment reports. 

There will be a few reports coming out to give the glimpse of the US job market. Tonight we have ADP employment report, tomorrow we have jobless claims, and on Friday we have the all important non farm payroll and unemployment rate report. So JOBS JOBS JOBS! I do not want to predict yet if Friday will be good before the jobless claims on Thursday.

Remember we maintain our view that risk is high now. And that is the reason we are lying low...

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

曾淵滄專欄 2013 02 28 : 濠賭股業績有睇頭

人生匆匆，我在城市大學工作了足足四分之一個世紀，應該是時候停一停，走出校園到外頭闖天下。今日是我在城大最後一個工作日，不過我不是退休，我從來沒有退休的意圖，將來不論年齡多大，我都會繼續工作，現在只不過換個工作環境，不再打工，而是自由自在地做各種各樣的工作。
昨日，我在文章中已經提到，業績期已展開，只要業績好，股價一定獲得支持，不必太擔心。昨天，我的愛股友邦（1299）打頭炮，去年利潤增長89%，太好了。
當 年友邦上市時我已大聲叫好，並長年鼓勵大家買，昨日友邦股價又再創歷史新高，利潤急升也會使到將來PE值再度具有吸引力。友邦股價在過去一直都表現得很 好，PE值當然也逐步上升，有些人開始覺得PE值不夠吸引力，現在利潤急升近一倍，PE值也可以減近一半，重新吸引以低PE值為選股標準的長期投資者。


小金庫可應付人口老化

有了友邦的經驗，現在大家不妨猜一猜有哪一些股將會有非常令人吃驚的優異業績？我估計會是澳門賭業股。大家不妨留意這個板塊，趁目前股市動盪低吸短炒。
昨日財政預算案公佈，四平八穩，財爺知道盈餘很多，暫時不知道怎麼花，決定成立兩個小金庫，一個是扶貧的關愛基金，另一個是再培訓基金。我認為以小金庫的方法，暫時將花不掉的錢立專項儲於另一個基金，以備將來之用，是可行的。
昨日，財爺用了一些時間大談人口老化，但是談了之後竟然沒有對策，其實小金庫的概念也適用於人口老化。至今為止，社會上雖然仍未有共識，但政府可以預先注資成立人口老化基金備用。

Both ISM results propel US to BREAK all time high!

Dear Friends,

A double whammy in ISM manufaturing and ISM non-manufacturing results propel the DOW to break a all time 2007 high point of 14198. Now it is near 14,276. What an achievement! It brushed it off today with a 140 points gain now.

All time high! This is a significant milestone. All time high normally signals economy is getting better as companies are doing better and are reflected by the strong stock prices. In General, this milestone reflects stocks are at their most expensive time. Without the strong earnings and better economy, it normally don't happen.

Asia Leading Investment Guru Mr Hu Li Yang once says that this bull run still has 2-3 years more. He say it last year when we are still screaming about exiting the market talking about the Euo falling apart. It proves he is right! This bull run indeed carries the US to historical height now.

How many years more? According to Mr Hu, about 2 years more. But it won't be a smooth ride forward! There will still be ups and downs. Although the long term bull run still will continue. But bear in mind that short term wise, he did mention that DOW has a strong resistance of 13600-14300.

Let us see if Dow indeed carry on the run. Let us see if there is a rubberband effect to pull it back and when it happens.

In the meantime, let Wallstreet rejoice and celebrate. Just take note that it wont last forever. Short term, there will be a correction. The question is "Will it be this month???"

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

It is a BAD day for Local market, establish and execute stop loss time

Dear Friends,

It seems like a red red day in Singapore. HSI down by 343 points, Shanghai down by 77 points, Singapore by 23 points.

As what we have anticipated the previous few weeks, we mentioned that Feb is a sideway month where the peak might be reached. We told all to be careful of March or latest Early April. We rang the alert bell earlier than most analysts and please don't trust those who tell you that this run will continue forever.

We are glad that our market predictions have been quite accurate so far this year.

Today quite a number of stocks has already fallen from their high, especially after Shanghai drop because of the housing measures speculation.

It will be an opportunity for those who took action and liquidated some bullish positions, and have the patience to wait.

Pls take note US market has not fallen much yet. We think that the ROT in US has just started but the real impact has not been felt hard. Be careful from now onwards as momentum may take a turn for the worse.

All stop losses must be tighter than usual. If you have never set up your stop losses in the beginning, you probably would need to revise your trading strategy as this is a critical part of short term investment strategy.

I would do a more thorough study of the market again in my next email. For now this week, our advise is to adopt a wait and see attitude before the jobs reports on Friday and don't be hasty to buy stocks now!

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

Radio FM958 (Fri, 1 Mar 1.15pm) talking about Market Outlook for March, is there a possibility of reversal?

Dear Friends,

Today I will be interviewed on radio station Capital FM958, Fri from 1.15pm-1.30pm with DJ  Di Cong talking about the <Market Outlook for Mar>

If you are interested to know more, just tune in to FM958... :)

Radio Station website: Listen Live
http://entertainment.xin.msn.com/zh/radio/capital958/

Need Windows Media Player 11

Thank you
Daniel Loh

Dow 50 points from all time high now

Dear Friends,

Now is 3am in the morning. Yes it does seem like US is enjoying the prospect of Dow beating all time high target. It sure garner some limelights today. CNBC has been talking about it. As the media is focusing their attention on this prospect, we maintain our view that this is a high point to be in.

Oh mind, this is the all time high, not just the 5 years high point we are talking about. If it breaks, it sure is a great feat amid the europe problems and high unemployment rate and the debt ceiling. However short term wise, we still maintain our view that this is a risky state to be in. "Take note of March and April" it seems we have been giving this view umpteen times. We still maintain this view.

As the whole world still rejoins in this festive mood of the market, we think that for the next 2 months, this 14198 point acts as a rubber band. If it really breaks, the more it goes up, the more it will pull back. The best way to have is a slow upward movement slowly past the 14198 so that this music can still go on a longer time.

You do not want to be caught in a situation where the rubberband pulls back hard. As the market rejoins, we do not want to dampen this spirit.

Let the music plays until it one day stops, and stop it sure will....

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com