Friday, 22 August 2014

Radio FM958 interview with Daniel Loh: Will the September Market continues its ascent?

US Market

1)    When we attended DJ’s Yi Xin programme 2 weeks ago, we mentioned that when DOW drops to 16300, we can take the opportunity to enter US market. At that time we predicted 16300 to be a strong support. And on that day, DOW indeed drops to a low point of 16330 before rebounding.
2)    We predicted 16300 to be a strong support as 16300 is the figure for 200day MA.
3)     Looking at the 200day MA, it shows that the bull market is still intact. We do not need to worry if the market is going to enter a bear market soon. Anytime the market drops sharply, it will rebound.
4)    At this moment,we are still optimistic regarding September’s market 3 reasons why:
5)     The first is that the 2nd quarter earnings results is good. For the S&P500 companies, the growth rate is 7.6% versus 4.8% last quarter. Given such good results, we think this will last until October.
6)     The 2nd reason is that the FED chairwoman Janet Yellen has not discussed about raising interest rate. In the recent meeting, Yellen even says that the recent sharp fall in unemployment rate may be just a fluke.
7)     The 3rd reason is that US economy is showing good improvement in the economy. Unemployment rate is still dropping, ISM report this month remains very good. The whole US economy is going well.
8)     However we hope that the 3rd quarterly earnings results in October is good. If not, we got to be careful in October. There may be a minor correction.
9)     The best industry to invest in for these one of two months is the Technological industry. Apple will be launching their iphone 6 on 9th September. Alibaba IPO in October will also bring about hype in the tech sector.

Singapore Market

·         2 weeks ago, we did mention the best area to invest STI is 3250-3300. If STI goes below 3300 and below, may buy a bit to test the water. If it continues to go up, buy somemore.
·         Truly, STI broke 3300 support and goes to a low of 3277.
·         Now, STI seems continuously going up a bit every day
·         We still maintain our view that in this quarter, STI will be travelling between 3300-3450 again.
·         Looking at the emerging market, we don’t think STI will drop too much. Jakarta index is back near its historical high of 5250 while India index Sensex is still running.
·         Hence investors can be calm, we still believe that the Singapore stock market is still healthy.
·         However we know that it seems not a lot of stocks are running. It will take a bit of hardwork and effort to locate good stocks that shows good earnings.

China Market

·         Recently Shanghai composite performance has been quite good. Now it is at 2235.
·         Although it has been good, there seems to be a resistance at 2250. These few days it seems the index has difficulty breaking through 2250. Why?
·         Because these 2 years the composite is consolidating in between 2000-2500. Hence 2250 being the middle point of the support 2000 and resistance 2500 is also a resistance.
·         We hope there may be a breakthrough soon.
·         Recently the performance of the Chinese internet companies have been quite good. Do take note of them. The reason may be because of Alibaba listing.

HongKong Market

·         2 weeks ago, we mentioned to take note of Hangseng index and hong kong stocks as we think the Dow has reached a bottom. At that time, the index is 24300. Because of China-Hongkong cross border trading system, we did predict that it will go above 25000.

·         We still think that Hang Seng has potential to go further up. We think that it is one of the most watchable index in Asia. The cross border trading will start in October and I think Hang Seng might continue to be bullish till then. 

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