Friday 4 April 2014

Channel 8 TV interview: Is $12.40 target on OCBC reasonable? 第8频道《早安你好》骆伟嵩 现场采访:OCBC $12.40的估价合理吗?


1)    昨晚虽然美国道指没涨没跌,但是在交易时段创下了历史高点。这个月我们还是蛮看好美国股市的。
2)    可是请大家还是要留意今晚的非农业薪金报告。
3)    如果这个非农报告不错比预期还好,我相信4月还是有可能上升的。


·         上个星期当海指在3164点时,我们说过还是对STI保持乐观的态度。认为STI还是有往上走的空间。不到一个星期,道指已经涨到了3220点。我们对我们的判断没有改变,还是觉得STI3250-3300点是有压力。鼓励短期朋友在这个范围套利先。


·         最近OCBC成功收购了永亨银行, 投资总额为63亿新元,比预期的还要低。
·         虽然收购永亨银行对OCBC长拓展中国市场有帮助,但是可能要等到2017年才会看到收购的成果,反映在盈利。

·         我觉得时间太长了,也认为$12.40DBS估价过高。暂时我判断OCBC的上涨空间有限,在$9.8-$10有强大的阻力。本地业务也受新加坡降温措施影响,因此短期不鼓励大家投资


      Analyst Report Summary by DBS targetting $12.40 in 1 year time...
      In summary, I think although the acquistion of WHB is below valuation, the benefit of this acquisition can only be reflected in the earnings only in year 2017. By year 2017, I do believe there may be a bear run coming, and I am not willing to wait that long. 

      Temporarily, OCBC does have a strong short term resistance at $9.80 - $10. As local banks is still suffering from the local housing cooling measures, and with STI near our 3250-3300 resistance, we don't encourage you to look at this stock now. 

     Perhaps there may be other better blue chips around like Singpost, whose acquisitions are already going to reflect on their earnings this year!

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