Friday, 27 December 2013

Wonderful triple digit move up is fueling the christmas rally!

Dear Friends,

With the triple digit move up for the dow, it just seems this christmas rally is going in full steam. It just can't seem to end here. One thing is for sure, things are now back to normal where we will scrutinize the economical reports and the earnings announcements of the companies again next january.

If  is any fall in expectations in the ISM and non farm payment report, do expect the market to go weak. And this time round, there is a chance that actual results may be less than what analysts think after the end of holiday season.

Although I feel that employment data may be ok, I would really suspect why the ISM would be able to post another figure like this month. With the holiday season over, I think ISM might start to slow down. Enterprises normally goes weaker in december or january as production has already start to slow a bit.

Apart from the economical reports, all eyes will be on the last quarter earnings of US stocks. With the recent rally, there might be some stocks that fall below expectations.

In summary, I do feel that january or february may not be easy months for US market. If you are dabbling in US, I suggest moving your funds back to south east asia. Next quarter, I think the SEA might outperform US market.

Rgds
Daniel

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