I am totally surprised at how Dow came back today to green colour by mid day. It has been an amazing turnaround.
Look at below results for the details of the reports.
1) ADP employment report which measures private sector jobs is less than expectation. 133k to the forecast of 145k.
2) Unemployment claims which indicates how many people are jobless and go to government for help is more than forecast 383k compared to forecast of 369k.
3) Chicago PMI a private report which measures how enterprise are doing shows a disastrous 52.7% compared to 56.7% forecast.
All 3 are bad and yet Dow Jones came back. It is really interesting to see how market reacts 2moro to ISM and Non-farm payroll.
Judging from today's play, market seems reluctant to drop amid the bad reports. It seems to suggest that it has dropped too much already. However I am worried about 2moro ISM and non-farm payroll report. I know ISM may be bad, and employment report seems a close call now.
So my strategy probably is not to hold overnight position as I think there are risks that 2moro if the reports are not that good, it might open lower.
However I also feel that , if 2moro Dow opens lower, there may be a chance for it to come back just like today. Not that easy a market to predict and trade now. Remember if Dow can rise for 3 consecutive days, it would indicate a short term bullish change in trend.
I encourage all to watch closely how the market reacts to the news. If you are playing Singapore stocks, do not enter position 2moro. If you are playing US market, better to take profits if possible by end of day today. There might be a chance to enter lower 2moro...
Rgds
Daniel
