Wednesday, 9 October 2013

Market Outlook by Lucia Chen

Dear Friends,
Thank you for your support and feedback to my sharing on 958 radio station last Friday. I will be sharing my view of the market on 958 radio station regularly and will keep all of you updated on this. For those who have missed my sharing, you can go to http://youtu.be/2OQ7rkXSjXA

Below is the summary on the key points of my sharing last Friday:

US Market

Currently, all global investors are focusing on 3 major topics in the market:
1.      When will the QE tapper kick in?
2.      Whether US will smoothly raise the 16.7 trillion dollars debt ceiling on or before 17 Oct 2013?
3.      When will it be an end for US government shutdown?

My view is:
1.      QE Taper: Due to the pressure coming from US Government shutdown and Debt ceiling issue recently. There’s unlikely that US FED will kick start the QE tapper at this point of time to increase the complexity of the current situation. So the monthly 85 billion bond-buying program of will be mostly likely to continue in the near term.
2.      Debt Ceiling: the deadline is 17 Oct. The possibility of US Senate refusing to increase the current debt ceiling is almost equal to zero. The reason why I believe they would resolve the issue is: Being the world biggest economy, if US would to fail to increase the debt ceiling, the consequences is that US would default on his debt.  This have never ever happened in history, as the impact is unpredictable and immeasurable to US and global market. So I believe US government will NOT make it happen and let it go out of control.
3.      Government Shutdown:


Singapore:

The buy zone of STI is 3100-3150, you can consider to start to accumulate index or shares when STI is trading in the buy zone. Anything below 3100 is considered as a “Bonus”, please do not miss. However, we see the probability of this will happen in this round is low.

in addition, please also take note of commodity sector as the upward movement of China market may probably kick start the engine of this sector.

China:
The reason why I’m holding an optimistic view to china market performance:

1)       The 3rd quarter economic data of China, eg: HSBC China PMI start to show some improvement, and I believe there will be a continuously and stable growing for the last quarter.
2)       The market is expecting the government to release a series of policies to continue to stimulate the economy after the Chinese National Holiday, with this positive expectation to the market, in short to mid-term wise, I believe there is more upside for China market.


亲爱的朋友,

谢谢大家收听我在958电台所做的采访,我会定期在958电台分享我对于市场的一些个人见解。我会及时在邮件中为大家更新!对于错过上周五分享的朋友可以在以下链接听到采访: http://youtu.be/2OQ7rkXSjXA

以下是我做的一个分享总结:

美国市场

现在市场上最担心的有三大问题:
1.量化宽松是否会缩减,
2.这个月1017日的债务顶限问题,政府是否会上调顶限?
3.政府关门问题会对市场有何影响?

那我个人的看法如下:
量化宽松:首先由于债务顶先,和政府关门对美国市场所造成的压力,那我觉得美国政府也不会选在这个节骨眼上减少量化宽松,所以每个月850亿的国债回购暂时会持续下去,这对于股票市场来说是一个利好的消息。只是市场还没有反应出来。
债务顶限:我个人觉得,美国国会反对通过上调债务顶限的可能性微乎其微。因为如果不上调这个债务顶限,那么美国可能会把自己逼向一个债务违约的困境。这在美国历史上,也从未发生过。所以我相信美国的两党,无论是谁也不想做这个千古罪人,因为一旦债务违约,这对美国甚至全球经济带来的影响是无法估计的。
美国政府关门:政府关门是因为预算案没有达成一致,我个人认为真正的分歧焦点两党就奥巴马医改问题产生不一致的看法。所以,才导致了美国政府部门临时关门。既然现在的问题不是美国预算案,那这个问题就容易解决很多,所以我相信这个问题的解决不会拖太久。

新加坡:
新加坡的入场价位为3100-3150大家可以考虑用中小资金开始慢慢进场,如果掉破3100点,那这个可能性我觉得会比较小,但如果真的跌破,那绝对是属于市场给大家捡便宜,请一定不要错过。另外由于对中国市场的前景看好,我觉得新加坡大宗商品股板块可能有所作为,请大家留意。

中国:

我个人很看好中国在接下来中短期的表现,原因如下:
1)  中国第三季度的经济已经表现出了开始慢慢回稳,一些重要的经济数据,比如汇丰PMI指数也表现出一个明显的增长,那我预计接下来也会继续保持一个平稳的增长。
2)  现在中国还在放假,由于市场对国庆节后抱有很强的政策预期,因为政府可能会在国庆后颁发一系列的政策来推动经济,因而无论即将公布的一系列经济数据是否继续转好,中国市场的看涨情绪很高。


Last but not least, Let’s review together our entry for last week. Among the 3 stocks we recommended in last email.

Genting
SMS Alert and enter at 1.42
GoldenAgri
SMS Alert and enter at 0.525
Asia-Pacific Strategic
No SMS Alert as price Penetrate down to buy zone without any trigger


Thank you very much,

Best Regards,
Lucia Chen

STI breaks 3280 triple top barrier! What are the Singapore Stocks to Look at this quarter?!

Dear Friends, It is great news that Singapore STI has a triple top breakout off 3280 barrier! As a trader, I always look at triple top bre...