Wednesday 9 October 2013

Market Outlook by Lucia Chen

Dear Friends,
Thank you for your support and feedback to my sharing on 958 radio station last Friday. I will be sharing my view of the market on 958 radio station regularly and will keep all of you updated on this. For those who have missed my sharing, you can go to

Below is the summary on the key points of my sharing last Friday:

US Market

Currently, all global investors are focusing on 3 major topics in the market:
1.      When will the QE tapper kick in?
2.      Whether US will smoothly raise the 16.7 trillion dollars debt ceiling on or before 17 Oct 2013?
3.      When will it be an end for US government shutdown?

My view is:
1.      QE Taper: Due to the pressure coming from US Government shutdown and Debt ceiling issue recently. There’s unlikely that US FED will kick start the QE tapper at this point of time to increase the complexity of the current situation. So the monthly 85 billion bond-buying program of will be mostly likely to continue in the near term.
2.      Debt Ceiling: the deadline is 17 Oct. The possibility of US Senate refusing to increase the current debt ceiling is almost equal to zero. The reason why I believe they would resolve the issue is: Being the world biggest economy, if US would to fail to increase the debt ceiling, the consequences is that US would default on his debt.  This have never ever happened in history, as the impact is unpredictable and immeasurable to US and global market. So I believe US government will NOT make it happen and let it go out of control.
3.      Government Shutdown:


The buy zone of STI is 3100-3150, you can consider to start to accumulate index or shares when STI is trading in the buy zone. Anything below 3100 is considered as a “Bonus”, please do not miss. However, we see the probability of this will happen in this round is low.

in addition, please also take note of commodity sector as the upward movement of China market may probably kick start the engine of this sector.

The reason why I’m holding an optimistic view to china market performance:

1)       The 3rd quarter economic data of China, eg: HSBC China PMI start to show some improvement, and I believe there will be a continuously and stable growing for the last quarter.
2)       The market is expecting the government to release a series of policies to continue to stimulate the economy after the Chinese National Holiday, with this positive expectation to the market, in short to mid-term wise, I believe there is more upside for China market.









1)  中国第三季度的经济已经表现出了开始慢慢回稳,一些重要的经济数据,比如汇丰PMI指数也表现出一个明显的增长,那我预计接下来也会继续保持一个平稳的增长。
2)  现在中国还在放假,由于市场对国庆节后抱有很强的政策预期,因为政府可能会在国庆后颁发一系列的政策来推动经济,因而无论即将公布的一系列经济数据是否继续转好,中国市场的看涨情绪很高。

Last but not least, Let’s review together our entry for last week. Among the 3 stocks we recommended in last email.

SMS Alert and enter at 1.42
SMS Alert and enter at 0.525
Asia-Pacific Strategic
No SMS Alert as price Penetrate down to buy zone without any trigger

Thank you very much,

Best Regards,
Lucia Chen

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