Wednesday, 25 April 2012

All eyes on Apple Earnings 2night in US Market


Dear Friends,

It is so Funny that yesterday Europe problems are forgotten in today's market. The so called political crisis of French left wing right wing is not in the headlines anymore. Same to the Dutch government problems. If it is such a problem, it would be in the headlines constantly this week! Sigh, the ploy of the market makers work again!!! They scare the market off again on Monday....

By the way, today's Wallstreet million dollar question is "Will Apple gap down tonight?" If so, it might bring down Nasdaq100 2moro. In fact, I hope it gaps down 25 points so that I can get on this boat again. Now it is trading at $557. I think if earnings is not up to expectation, it may gap down to around $525, which looks tasty again.

But having said that, I think the probability of this stock gapping down a lot tonight has diminished with the drop it has suffered recently. After learning about the US Market the past 10 years, I noticed that the weird thing about Earnings is "It always play against the Market Expectation". If Apple was where it was 10 days back at $644, I would have bet 100% of my money on a GAP Down.

But now after dropping almost $90 from its high within 11 trading days, I feel that now the chances of gapping down has decreased a lot more. In fact if it is In-line with expectations ie. its EPS is same as that forecasted by analysts, I think the stock might just open in the green. Now I am really looking at a potential Long opportunity after earnings.

I think this is a tremendous lesson we can learn. I will update you on any progress.

Rgds
Daniel

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