Friday 27 April 2012

I am Concerned about next Friday's Employment Report

Dear Friends,

The week is ending soon. Now I am already studying about next month's market direction. If you know our style,we always like to study how enterprises and public reports are to determine the direction of the month.

However, I am worrying about next month's employment report, the Non-farm payroll report, which will come out next Friday. After studying the jobless claims this month, I feel that next month's Non-farm payroll may have higher chance of falling below expectations. If you remembered, this month's non-farm payroll is a disaster, leading to the index drop from the peak. In fact a lot of US companies fall from the high after the non-farm payroll.

Of course, I do not like to predict results before they come out. But sometimes as a trader, I will assess the probability of whether it will be more or less than expectation before the real result. As such, I will know what the risks are holding on to a stock or buying the stock before the report.

As currently I don't feel quite good about next month's employment report, I would certainly want to stay in the sideline on any long position before next Friday unless I end my position before Friday.

I hope my concern about the employment report is WRONG this time. Will keep you updated on our market outlook analysis next week!!! Do keep a lookout.


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