Tuesday 30 October 2012

Wait for US market confidence to come back up

Dear Friends,

Today Singapore Index STI dropped by 28 points. I would say that STI has been pretty resilient to US market drop until today. With the uncertainty of US market recently due to earnings, technological and energy sector weakness, I would suggest to avoid Singapore market temporarily.

Wait till we see some confidence in the US market. A good indication would be triple days gain for the DOW, or 2 days where the index close at a high (hopefully one of the days with a triple digit gain).

Attached is a chart of the DOW recent weakness. In fact Dow has already given up all its gain since the QE3 announcement in september, fallen by 600 points from its highest of 13661.

Looking forward, this is a jam packed week. The major report will come this friday with the unemployment rate and non farm payroll. I would probably lean towards a better than expectations report from the non farm payroll this time. In the previous report, it is on par with analyst's expectations.

Probably with the holiday season, there may be more jobs created this month, which is often the case for november. Let us wait for friday numbers.


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